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Patriots vs. Seahawks Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: NFL Week 1 Odds

I'm calling for a much closer game between these two teams than they played in last year's Super Bowl.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 8, 2026 8:55 AM EDT • 3 minute read

Pictured: New England Patriots wide receiver A.J. Brown catches a pass as we make our best Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction. Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith-Cal Sport Media/Sipa USA

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The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks kick off the NFL season with the third Super Bowl rematch in Week 1 in NFL history, and my Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction backs the line movement and expects a much more competitive game this time around with the underdogs covering. I also make love the value on A.J. Brown to score a touchdown in his first game in a Patriots uniform.

Kickoff from Lumen Field in Seattle is set for 8:20 p.m. ET on Wednesday night, airing on NBC. Seattle is a 3.5-point betting favorite.

🏈 Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction: NFL Week 1

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

💰 Pick	⚖️ Units	🧠 Why I bet this
Patriots +3.5 (-112 via FanDuel)	1u → 0.89u	The reverse line movement has me fading the public and backing the underdogs
Under 44.5 (-110 via FanDuel)	1u → 0.91u	Both defenses have an advantage over the offensive units
A.J. Brown anytime touchdown scorer (+165 via bet365)	1u → 1.65u	A.J. Brown gives Drake Maye the red zone target he was missing last year

Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 3.45 units

💰 Patriots vs. Seahawks best bet

Patriots +3.5 (-112)

The Seahawks defense recorded six sacks and three takeaways in the Super Bowl despite a 15% blitz rate. Even if Drake Maye is under pressure again, as he was on 34% of his dropbacks (ninth-highest), he still led the NFL in Total QBR (77) while under much duress.

Seattle now may be without Nick Emmanwori who is questionable. I also have more confidence in New England’s offensive line after becoming the first team to start multiple rookie offensive linemen in a Super Bowl. It drafted Caleb Lomu, who had zero sacks allowed on 361 pass block snaps last season.

Score prediction: Seahawks 23, Patriots 21

🙌 Best Patriots vs. Seahawks touchdown scorer prediction

A.J. Brown anytime touchdown scorer (+165)

Brown to New England seems like a match made in heaven after the Patriots have had two players with 1,000-yard receiving seasons since 2019 (tied for the fewest). Brown alone has six such seasons in that span, tied for the most among all players. New England is also the only team without a 60-plus-yard-per-game receiver since 2020, while Brown has averaged 65 or more yards per game every season since 2019.

Brown is one of seven wide receivers with 8,500 receiving yards and 60 receiving touchdowns in their first seven seasons in NFL history. He has the most receptions on tight-window targets since 2019, and I expect Maye to pepper him with targets in their first game action together.

🚀 Patriots vs. Seahawks same-game parlay

Normally I’d make a more conservative player prop wager than an anytime touchdown play as a second leg of a same-game parlay. But instead of adding two other legs that have higher odds to cash, I’m sticking with this two-leg SGP, as Brown scoring a touchdown would go a long way in helping the Patriots cover.

💵 Patriots vs. Seahawks SGP picks

Patriots +3.5
A.J. Brown anytime touchdown scorer

Best odds: +406 via bet365 (0.1u → 0.41u)

💡 How I'm betting Patriots vs. Seahawks: NFL Week 1 strategy

Follow all of our NFL analysis and betting advice for the 2026 NFL season.

I’m a big proponent of fading the betting public, especially in high-profile games like a Super Bowl rematch to kick off the NFL season. The fact that Seattle has dropped from a 4.5 favorite to 3.5 despite getting 63% of the wagers suggests sharp action is behind the reverse line movement.

New England at +3 or lower is a no play, but I am confidently backing the underdogs at anything +3.5 or higher.

📊 Patriots vs. Seahawks odds: NFL Week 1

🚑 Patriots vs. Seahawks latest injuries

🌤️ Patriots vs. Seahawks weather: Wednesday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Temperatures at kickoff in Seattle will be around 73 degrees, and dropping as low as 67 degrees by the fourth quarter. Winds are light at 5 mph NW, and there is a slight 5% chance of precipitation throughout the game.

📺 How to watch Patriots vs. Seahawks: NFL Week 1

Date: Wednesday, Sept. 9
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Lumen Field (Seattle)
TV: NBC

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”