Dolphins vs. Vikings Prediction: Week 4 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
One of the most impressive teams through three weeks plays one of the most abject teams, a narrative I believe will continue in my Dolphins vs. Vikings prediction.
The Vikings are a 9.5-point betting favorite despite the low 38.5-point total and Justin Jefferson’s confirmed absence.
While the Vikings' offense isn’t among the best, I expect their defense to stonewall Malik Willis and Co. The analysis below is part of our Week 4 NFL predictions.
🏈 Dolphins vs. Vikings picks & predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 4 based on the latest NFL odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| Vikings -9.5 (-114 via FanDuel) | 2 units |
| Under 38.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 1 unit |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: +2.67 units
💰 Dolphins vs. Vikings prediction & best bet
Vikings -9.5 (-114 via FanDuel)
This matchup doesn’t suit the 0-3 Dolphins, who enter the away game with the worst defensive DVOA and the second-worst offensive DVOA.
Willis will feel more pressure than an about-to-burst gasket. He faces a Vikings defense that blitzes at the highest rate (66.4%), has the highest pressure rate (40.3%), the most sacks (14), the fourth-highest hurry percentage (17.2), and the fifth-highest quarterback knockdown rate (14.9%).
Overall, the Vikings have the best defensive DVOA, and the Dolphins are without the injured De’Von Achane.
📡 SBR Edge: Worst scoring offense vs. second-best scoring defense
The Dolphins are tied with the New England Patriots for the lowest-scoring team, while the Vikings allow the second-fewest points per game (13.7).
Willis in tough against blitz-obsessed defense
Calling the Vikings defense blitz-obsessed is the understatement of the millennium. The Vikings blitz almost 27% more than any other team. That’s foreboding for Willis, who ranks 30th in completion rate (43.5%) against the blitz.
The already ominous outlook gets compounded by Achane’s injury. Unless running backs Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon II conjure career-best games, the Dolphins offense will struggle to execute a multifaceted game plan.
That would be catastrophic against the Vikings' relentless front line.
Score prediction: Vikings 24, Dolphins 10
📊 Dolphins vs. Vikings odds
Dolphins vs. Vikings opening odds
- Moneyline: Dolphins +475 | Vikings -625
- Spread: Dolphins +10.5 (-110) | Vikings -10.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 43 (-105) | Under 43 (-112)
📺 How to watch Dolphins vs. Vikings: Week 4
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Location: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis)
- TV: FOX
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