NFL Comeback Player of the Year 2022 Odds: Avoid the Overvalued Favorite

The NFL's 2022 Comeback Player of the Year race is one of the most interesting among all the major awards this season. Check out our look at the NFL futures odds to help guide your NFL picks.

It’s not difficult convincing bettors to stay away from a -800 favorite, an expensive play for many. The NFL Comeback Player of the Year market currently features Geno Smith leading the way, which isn’t surprising. What’s surprising is the asking price, a near four-digit tag at minus-value.

Despite Smith’s solid play this season, the asking price is far too expensive and leaves the door wide open for future bettors looking for value. Seattle could still miss the playoffs, which would leave many voters looking elsewhere for their Comeback Player pick - as there are good options available. 

Two star running backs present great value in Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley, while Jared Goff is turning into what Geno Smith was to begin the season. These three players should be considered heavily as we enter Week 15, as the Seahawks and Smith are beginning to show signs of struggle.

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2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Best Bets

• Jared Goff (+3000 via DraftKings Sportsbook) - Dec. 14
• Christian McCaffrey (+1000 via PointsBet) - Dec. 14

2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Picks: Favorite

Geno Smith (-550 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

It’s incredible to see a difference of almost 300 between PointsBet (-800) and FanDuel (-550) for Smith to win the Comeback Player of the Year. That should also indicate how unsettled the lines are for this market, and Smith in particular. 

Seattle has lost three of its last four games to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Carolina Panthers, while barely sneaking by the Los Angeles Rams in a four-point win. Seattle has the San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, and New York Jets over its next three games, so Smith's odds are set up to plummet. Avoid him at all costs.

2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Picks: Contenders

Christian McCaffrey (+1000 via PointsBet)

PointsBet is offering CMC at four-digit value for an award he can easily win, especially if he outshines Smith in a winning effort this Thursday night. With the injury to Deebo Samuel, McCaffrey’s workload will likely pick up. 

He has scored a touchdown in four of his last six games and can utilize both the ground and air game to get the statistics he needs. If the 49ers win on Thursday night and Smith struggles, PointsBet might drop his odds to three digits, which many books already have. 

This might be the last window bettors have to get four digits on a strong candidate to win this award. If you like CMC then go with PointsBet, as it has the best odds for him.

Saquon Barkley (+1200 via DraftKings)

Taking Barkley with DraftKings’ 12-1 odds is a perfectly fine bet to make, as well. Barkley hasn’t missed a beat all season, other than his Giants are struggling to win games right now. His production has still been solid throughout, finding the end zone in four of his last six games. 

The Giants are still in playoff contention as well, so there is the possibility of New York getting in and Seattle missing the postseason. If that occurs, Barkley becomes a much better option to win the award and already has great value to test with DraftKings.

2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Picks: Long Shot

Jared Goff (+3000 via DraftKings)

Only a few books have Goff available to bet on, and it should be taken advantage of. The Detroit Lions are the hottest team in football right now, all led by Goff at quarterback. While other stars have come and gone due to injuries, Goff has been a staple in the Lions' offense all season long. 

What’s ironic here is that Geno Smith is the favorite to win the Comeback Player of the Year, but Goff is doing exactly what Smith was doing for the first half of the season. Smith has struggled the last month or so while Goff and the Lions are soaring.

If this continues for the final month of the season, Goff should become the front-runner to win this award. Take him with DraftKings now if you’re a bettor who thinks Detroit gets into the playoffs and Seattle doesn’t.

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