Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction: Week 5 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers look for their first win of the season on a short week as Week 5’s biggest underdog when facing the Dallas Cowboys as I make my Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction.
It’s backup quarterback Jalen Hurts under center for the Buccaneers once again, while Dak Prescott led the Cowboys to a historic second-half comeback win last week. Dallas is an 8.5-point betting favorite, with kickoff at AT&T Stadium in Arlington set for 8:15 p.m. ET, streaming on Prime Video.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys picks & predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 5 based on the latest NFL odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers +8.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.91 units |
| Under 47.5 (-105 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.95 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.86 units
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction & best bet
Buccaneers +8.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
Tampa Bay is 0-4 for the first time since 2013, but has still looked competitive all season. The Buccaneers have played 10 straight one-score games, the longest such streak in team history.
Meanwhile, Dallas earned its first win in 33 road games when trailing by double digits in the second half. But its defense is a concern after allowing 30 points to Houston, which had totaled 23 points over the previous two weeks. Even though they’re breaking in many new starters, the Cowboys entered last week 31st in defensive EPA per game after finishing last in that metric last season.
📡 SBR Edge: Not much drop-off under Daniels
Most wrote off Tampa Bay without Baker Mayfield under center last week, but the offense didn't drop off much with Jalon Daniels leading the team. The Buccaneers still managed 275 total yards against the Packers, just below their 279.3 yards-per-game average entering Week 4.
Fading the public in primetime
NFL teams getting the majority of the bets this season have gone 2-10 ATS in primetime. So far, the Cowboys are getting a whopping 69% of early wagers, yet the line has dropped from -9.5 to -8.5 at most top sports betting sites. That suggests sharp action is backing Tampa Bay even though the Buccaneers are amid the longest ATS skid (0-13) in the Super Bowl era (including a 0-5 ATS mark as an underdog).
I’m not completely disregarding Tampa Bay’s chances despite playing a backup quarterback, as backups facing a starter this season are 7-4 SU and ATS, which is the best such record for backups in the last 15 years. In addition, quarterbacks making either their first or second career start (like Daniels is) on the road in primetime have a 68% cover rate since 2000.
Score prediction: Cowboys 24, Buccaneers 17
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys odds
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys opening odds
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +425 | Cowboys -549
- Spread: Buccaneers +9.5 (-105) | Cowboys -9.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-108) | Under 47.5 (-110)
How to watch Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: Week 5
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 8
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
- Streaming: Prime Video
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