Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 3: Top Game Lines, Player Props to Target
Despite his appearance on another injury report, I don't think bettors should fade Christian McCaffrey in Week 3. Here are my favorite player prop bets for Week 3 of the NFL season.
Arthur Smith, please get the ball to Kyle Pitts. Pitts is one of the best weapons in all of football, but the Atlanta Falcons tight end has accumulated 38 receiving yards and no touchdowns in his first two games of the season. Thirty-eight! I believe this will change in Week 3 as Smith is under an immense amount of pressure to get the 2021 fourth overall pick involved.
Here are my 10 favorite player prop bets for Week 3 of the NFL season (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook).
NFL Player Props for Week 3
10. Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 interceptions (+195 via DraftKings) ★★★
The quarterback interception props seem to be gaining popularity on Twitter, so I'm joining in. Several of Aaron Rodgers' weapons have been limited or have not practiced this week, and Rodgers' last visit to Tampa Bay did not go well. The Green Bay Packers lost 38-10 to the Buccaneers in 2020 after Rodgers threw two interceptions.
Taking the ball away isn't new to the Buccaneers' defense, as they intercepted Jameis Winston three times in Week 2. The price point we are receiving on Rodgers to throw an interception is eye-catching at +195.
9. Jason Myers Over 6.5 kicking points (+105 via DraftKings) ★★★
As an offense, the Seattle Seahawks should be able to move the ball against an Atlanta Falcons defense that ranks 24th in defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. However, can Geno Smith convert these opportunities into touchdowns? It is unlikely that you will see this prop trading at a +105 price point as we get closer to kickoff. I would look to grab this prop as soon as possible.
8. David Montgomery Over 16.5 rushing attempts (-115 via Caesars) ★★★★
In Week 2, the Chicago Bears handed the ball off to David Montgomery 15 times, while playing from a negative game script. Imagine how many times Montgomery might get the ball in a game where the Bears are 2.5-point home favorites against the Houston Texans? I would play this prop up until 17.5, but I wouldn't play it above that.
7. Davis Mills Over 210.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ★★★★
It is Week 3 and, for the third consecutive week, we are taking the Over on Davis Mills' passing yardage prop. Mills continues to be undervalued in his yardage prop, and we will continue to bet on him until he is properly adjusted.
DraftKings opened this total at 212.5 and they are already up to 215.5, so we are not the only ones betting on the Over. Based on multiple projections, I have Mills throwing for 241.4 yards in Week 3, which is significantly higher than his betting total of 210.5 yards.
6. Marcus Mariota Over 208.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★★
As the former Oregon Duck quarterback returns to the Pacific Northwest, it is somewhat of a homecoming for Marcus Mariota. With the markets heavily favoring the Falcons and moving the line in their favor to Falcons -1, how about some Over love for Mariota on his passing prop?
According to several projection models, Mariota is expected to throw for more than 235 yards, and PFF projects that he will throw for 257 yards. Considering Mariota's yardage prop trades at a total of 208.5, I'm a big fan of the Over.
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5. Christian McCaffrey Over 56.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ★★★★
The Carolina Panthers have been very conservative with Christian McCaffrey in the first two weeks of the season, giving him only 10 and 15 rushing attempts, respectively. The Panthers are now 0-2 and Matt Rhule's job is on the line. It is unlikely that Rhule will be conservative with McCaffrey's touches this week, because they are in desperate need of a victory against the New Orleans Saints.
According to my research, McCaffrey is projected to rush for 71.3 rushing yards against the Saints. This is 14.8 yards higher than the total, and I also think that some factors that aren't able to be calculated into a projection are working in your favor, such as Rhule trying to save his job.
4. Jonathan Taylor Over 83.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★★★
We bet the Under on Jonathan Taylor's rushing total in Week 2 and got the money. In Week 3, however, we are returning to the Taylor prop, but we are betting the Over this time. Similar to McCaffrey, the Indianapolis Colts are in desperate need of a victory, and I expect them to rely heavily on Taylor.
At DraftKings, the total opened at 81.5 and has climbed to 83.5, so I would not wait to purchase this number. According to my projections, Taylor will rush for 94.9 rushing yards against the Kansas City Chiefs, which is why I favor the Over on this wager.
3. Kyler Murray Over 25.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★★★
Upon viewing the film from the Las Vegas Raiders versus Arizona Cardinals game from Week 2, it's clear how much the Cardinals will have to rely on quarterback Kyler Murray's rushing abilities while they are lacking weapons in the passing game.
In each of Murray's first two games, he has exceeded the total of 25.5 rushing yards, and with running back James Conner experiencing an ankle injury, Murray may have more rushing opportunities in Week 3.
2. Kyle Pitts Over 46.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM) ★★★★★
There is no way the Falcons can ignore their best weapon for a third week in a row, can they? At DraftKings, the total for Pitts' receiving yards opened at 41.5 and has already been bet as high as 46.5.
BetMGM's -115 price point is considerably better than what we are seeing elsewhere. DraftKings offers a juiced Over 46.5 at -135 and Caesars isn't much better at -125. Besides the favorable price point offered by BetMGM, my projections indicate that Pitts will clear this total by 13 yards.
1. Tua Tagovailoa Under 261.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ★★★★★
In Week 2, Tua Tagovailoa exploded for 469 passing yards and had one of the highest passing grades among all starting quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. As Tagovailoa's popularity has increased over the last week, there is value in the Under for his passing yards prop.
Initially, this line opened at 263.5 and has been moving towards the Under. Considering Caesars has the total at 256.5 with increased juice on the Under at -137, the -115 price point we are seeing at BetMGM is an excellent buy.
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NFL best bets made 9/23/2022 at 9:20 a.m. ET
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