Major League Baseball takes centerstage for several days with no football to contend with, and you can check out our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday based on the best MLB odds.
The National League Central is the only division in baseball that has every team mathematically still alive for a playoff spot, while the list of teams eliminated from playoff contention continues to grow by the day.
That fact of who is still alive for a playoff spot and who has been eliminated could be the deciding factor down the stretch when determining which team bettors choose to back or fade.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our World Series odds.
Tuesday's MLB schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Washington Nationals (OFF) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- St. Louis Cardinals (+164) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-198)
- Cincinnati Reds (-120) vs. Detroit Tigers (+100)
- Atlanta Braves (-125) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+105)
- Texas Rangers (-108) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-112)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) vs. New York Mets (-110)
- New York Yankees (+114) vs. Boston Red Sox (-135) Game 1
- New York Yankees (+110) vs. Boston Red Sox (-130) Game 2
- Tampa Bay Rays (+110) vs. Minnesota Twins (-130)
- Kansas City Royals (+105) vs. Chicago White Sox (-125) Game 1
- Kansas City Royals (+100) vs. Chicago White Sox (-120) Game 2
- Miami Marlins (+140) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-166)
- Oakland Athletics (+245) vs. Houston Astros (-305)
- Chicago Cubs (-185) vs. Colorado Rockies (+150)
- Los Angeles Angels (+180) vs. Seattle Mariners (-218)
- Cleveland Guardians (+110) vs. San Francisco Giants (-130)
- San Diego Padres (+136) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-162)
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Tuesday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBIs (OFF) vs. Yankees Game 2 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Patrick Sandoval Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-145 via bet365) vs. Mariners ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases (+135 via bet365) vs. Athletics ⭐⭐⭐
- Total: Cardinals-Orioles Over 10 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Tuesday's MLB prop picks
Player prop: Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Yankees in Game 2 (OFF) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
New York Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodon has been abysmal over his last seven starts, pitching to a 6.25 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Rodon has had a brutal schedule in that stretch, facing top-five offenses four times, but there is still no excuse for his seven earned runs allowed in 3 2/3 innings in his last start against the Detroit Tigers.
Rodon faces a Boston Red Sox lineup that ranks eighth in scoring overall and ninth in wRC+ in home games. The Red Sox also have an MLB-best .333 BABIP and .284 overall batting average at home, which is dangerous for Rodon, whose 20.1% strikeout percentage is down 41.9% from two years ago.
This is a four-star play, as Rafael Devers has just two hits in eight career at-bats against Rodon but is slashing .429/.512/.829 with seven RBIs in 35 at-bats against the Yankees this year.
We may have to wait until the first game of the doubleheader ends to make this wager but would play anything at plus-money odds when they become available.
Player prop: Patrick Sandoval Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Mariners (-145 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
At one point in the second half of the season, the Seattle Mariners went through torrid stretches when they won 10 of 11 and 12 of 13 games at two different times, which catapulted them to first place briefly in the AL West. Seattle’s offense averaged 4.9 runs per game during the first stretch and 7.5 runs per game through the latter, but it has fallen off a cliff since then.
The Mariners are 2-7 in their last nine games and have averaged 4.2 runs in that stretch. And while Seattle scored 38 runs in a six-game homestand against the AL’s two worst teams recently (the Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics), it has been held to three or fewer runs in six of the 13 home games it has played against teams over .500 since the All-Star Break.
Los Angeles Angels southpaw Patrick Sandoval has a 9.35 ERA through two poor September starts but is coming off an August in which he pitched to a respectable 3.96 ERA in five starts despite facing three of the top four scoring offenses in the league in that span.
This is only a three-star play, as Seattle ranks in the top five in wRC+ and BABIP against lefties in home games since Aug. 1. However, it has also struck out at a top-six rate (25.4%) in that split, and we expect positive regression from Sandoval regarding his walk rate, as he has issued three-plus free passes in six of his previous seven starts.
Player prop: Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases vs. Athletics (+135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Houston Astros slugger Kyle Tucker entered Monday slashing .300/.462/.550 over the previous seven days and was one of seven Astros hitters with an OPS higher than 1.000 in that span. Thus, Tucker, the team leader in batting average, home runs, RBIs, and on-base percentage, has plenty of protection up and down the lineup, so it is not like he can get pitched around consistently.
That last point is significant when considering his career numbers against Oakland Athletics southpaw JP Sears, against whom he has three hits in seven at-bats, including two home runs and a .571 wOBA. Tucker’s splits as a left-handed hitter are unique, as his OPS against southpaws is 120 points higher than against right-handed pitchers, and we expect him to exceed this total bases prop for the fourth time in 11 games this month.
The +135 odds at bet365 seem like a steal, as Caesars is as low as +115 for Tucker to exceed his total bases prop.
Tuesday's MLB game picks
Total: Cardinals-Orioles Over 10 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
St. Louis Cardinals righty Adam Wainwright has allowed 20 home runs in 89 innings this year. To put that into perspective, he allowed 16 home runs in 191 1/3 innings throughout all of last season, and his 2.0 HR/9 rate is on pace to be the worst of his career by far. And while the Baltimore Orioles rank in the bottom half of the league in home runs at home, they are still in the top eight in wRC+, OPS, and GB/FB ratio in that split.
Our biggest reason for backing the Over is the likely rust that Orioles southpaw John Means will have to overcome in making his first MLB start since undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2022. Means was due back in the rotation in July but had a setback after straining a muscle in his back while rehabbing in late May. Means pitched to a 3.74 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings spanning six rehab starts. He is not likely to throw a high pitch count Tuesday, so Baltimore is expected to use some bulk relievers before getting to the high-leverage arms responsible for MLB’s second-best xFIP among all bullpens.
BetMGM is the only one of our best sportsbooks charging less than -117 odds to back the Over, and we are bypassing DraftKings’ -102 odds for the Over of 10.5 runs, with more security at the lower total.
MLB best bets made 9/12/2023 at 6:28 a.m. ET.
MLB betting odds pages
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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