South Florida vs. UTSA Prediction: Week 6 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
My best South Florida vs. UTSA prediction anticipates a lot of points in this clash between American rivals. While the South Florida defense has been excellent this season, I explain why those numbers are being inflated by competition significantly weaker than UTSA.
UTSA is favored by 7 points ahead of tonight's 7:30 p.m. ET game at Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. The game will air on ESPN and stream on ESPN Unlimited.
South Florida vs. UTSA picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 6 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: UTSA -7 (-114 via bet365) | 1 unit to win 0.88 units |
| O/U: Over 49.5 (-112 via BetMGM) | 2 units to win 1.79 units |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: +2.67 units
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South Florida vs. UTSA prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Over 49.5 (-112 via BetMGM)
South Florida ranks 19th in scoring defense, allowing just 14.6 points per game. However, that success has very little to do with talent and a lot to do with the offenses the defense has played. Thus far, South Florida has faced the nation's 55th, 91st, 126th, and worst-ranked scoring offenses. South Florida's fifth game was against an FCS opponent.
South Florida has held four of five opponents to 17 or fewer points, including two to single digits. However, Army, the best offense the Bulls have faced, scored 24 points.
UTSA is averaging 31.4 points per game, which ranks 67th in the nation. However, that number would be even higher if UTSA hadn't already played No. 1 Texas. UTSA has scored at least 31 points in three of five games this season.
📡 SBR Edge: South Florida's red zone dominance
South Florida has scored on all 16 red-zone possessions this season, finding the end zone 11 times, while settling for just five field goals. UTSA has allowed 19 red-zone opportunities this year, which ranks 107th.
UTSA's defense isn't very good either
UTSA is tied for 96th in scoring defense, allowing 26.2 points per game. The defense has allowed at least 26 points in three of four games against FBS competition, allowing 45 to Colorado State just two weeks ago.
South Florida ranks 57th in yards per rush, averaging 4.73 per attempt. I expect this to pose significant problems for a UTSA defense that ranks 130th against the run, allowing 199.4 yards per game. Additionally, South Florida should be able to easily hit its rushing average, as UTSA is allowing 4.73 yards per carry, which ranks 113th in the country.
Score prediction: UTSA 35 South Florida 27
Live South Florida vs. UTSA odds
South Florida vs. UTSA opening odds
- Moneyline: South Florida +225 | UTSA -278
- Spread: South Florida +6.5 (-110) | UTSA -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (-110) | Under 55.5 (-110)
How to watch South Florida vs. UTSA: Week 6
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 8
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Alamodome (San Antonio, Texas)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited
