College Football Best Bets for Week 6: Expert Picks & Predictions

With most of the high-profile games being covered in my other individual game prediction columns, my college football best bets for Week 6 are a mix of ATS and O/U wagers on other games flying more under the radar.

My top four plays as part of our college football Week 6 predictions start with a Friday night Pac-12 clash between Washington State and Utah State in what I expect to be a defensive struggle. My other play on a total comes from the early ACC kickoff between North Carolina and Pittsburgh as I expect Bill Belichick to throw the kitchen sick at a backup quarterback.

College football best bets & expert picks: Week 6

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 6 based on the latest college football odds.

Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: +3.49 units

Best college football bets this week

Washington State-Utah State Under 44.5 (-125 via BetMGM)

Washington State’s last opponent, Fresno State, ranks 22nd in Rush EPA. But run defense was one of the things the Cougars did well in last week’s 26-6 loss, holding the Bulldogs to 3.7 yards per carry on a stubborn 35 attempts.

In the loss, Washington State totaled just nine first downs after going 3-for-14 on third down. Now its locked in a matchup of two underperforming offenses, with both Utah State and Washington State ranking 119th or worse in offensive efficiency. Conversely, both defenses have far outperformed their offenses, each ranking 82nd or better in defensive SP+.

I'm happy to pay up slightly at BetMGM for this total of 44.5 points, as all other top sports betting sites have an O/U a full point lower at 43.5.

North Carolina-Pittsburgh Under 47.5 (-112 via BetMGM)

Pittsburgh escaped Blacksburg with an upset win over Virginia Tech when the Hokies’ last-second field goal attempt went wide left. But the Panthers could not celebrate the victory as much as they would’ve liked after hearing the news that starting quarterback Mason Heintschel was lost for the year with a torn ACL.

Losing Heintschel is a major blow to the Panthers passing offense, as he had become the first quarterback in ACC history with six or more touchdown passes in two different games in the same season. The vertical passing game was Notre Dame’s most consistent form of offense against the Tar Heels last week, as CJ Carr threw four touchdowns while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. 

Panthers quarterback Holden Geriner recorded just a 23.1 QBR with 6.5 yards per attempt in relief of Heintschel last week. I'm making this wager through BetMGM at its market-best odds of -112 before the number aligns with DraftKings on the low end of the market with an O/U of 46.5.

Oregon -11.5 (-108 via BetMGM)

A week from now, Oregon starting quarterback Dylan Raiola will face his former Nebraska teammates. Before he does, he can strike fear in his next opponent as he gets his first chance to start the game under center against UCLA.

Raiola was masterful in relief of the injured Dante Moore two weeks ago against USC, leading four touchdown drives in the second half. Now the Ducks had a bye week to get Raiola more repetitions with the starters in preparation to face an overrated UCLA defense that ranks 34th in defensive efficiency while facing the 113th-hardest schedule to this point.

UCLA and Duke are the only unbeaten Power 4 teams ranked outside the top 20 in SP+, and the Bruins are in for a rude awakening in Eugene against a desperate Oregon squad needing to avoid a dreaded second loss.

Toledo -20.5 (-115 via bet365)

Toledo is riding high amid a four-game winning streak with victories over Temple and San Diego State in that span. The Rockets failed to cover as similar 20.5-point favorites last week in a 15-point win over Ball State, but that game was on the road, and Toledo never had a win probability lower than 81.5%.

After a dominant performance on the ground last week, Rockets running back CJ Miller was named MAC Offensive Player of the Week. He had a career-high 196 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries and ripped off two runs of 50+ yards. It was also the first time Toledo had two 100-yard rushers in the same game since Nov. 2018, as Connor Walendzak also ran for 103 yards.

Toledo has shown its offensive versatility and depth with this being the third straight week one of its players won MAC Offensive Player of the Year (quarterback John Alan Richter and wide receiver Bryson Hammer are the others). That spells doom for a Buffalo defense that ranks 113th in SP+ and is one of four MAC defenses allowing at least 400 yards per game.