College Football ATS Picks Week 6: Predictions Against the Spread

I’m coming off my most profitable week with my college football ATS picks, nailing all three of my best bets in Week 5 with an average cover margin of over 19 points. Overall I went 5-2 and took the points with three underdogs that won outright. 

I go back to the well for Week 6 with a couple of plays on small ‘dogs that could likely win outright, including why Fresno State has a chance to make a big statement in the Group of 6 over a now ranked No. 23 Boise State.

College football picks against the spread: Week 6

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 6 based on the latest college football odds.

Best college football ATS picks: Week 6

Louisiana Tech -2.5 (-122 via FanDuel) vs. Louisiana

Louisiana Tech opened as a 1-point favorite over in-state rival Louisiana, and has since been steamed up to the key number of -3 (and even -3.5) at some top sports betting sites. Thus, this is an automatic play as long as I can back the Bulldogs at anything less than a field goal.

Louisiana has a narrow edge in FPI ranking (84) over the 90th-ranked Bulldogs, but take all statistics and metrics with a grain of salt to this point as Louisiana Tech has played the far superior schedule. 

Coming off three straight games against then-No. 8 LSU, Baylor, and Army, Louisiana Tech has the 14th-hardest strength of schedule compared to Louisiana’s 96th-hardest schedule. Despite that, the Bulldogs have created Havoc at the seventh-highest rate on defense, while the Ragin’ Cajuns’ offense has allowed Havoc at a rate outside the top 100.

Fresno State +6.5 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Boise State

Fresno State is coming off a 26-6 road win over Washington State as 2.5-point underdogs, while three of Boise State’s last four wins have come at home on the blue turf. 

Despite facing an FCS school (South Dakota) and two other offenses ranked 116th or lower in SP+ (Western Michigan and Utah State), Boise State’s defense still ranks 119th or worse in tackling and Rush EPA allowed. Meanwhile, Fresno State ranks 22nd in Rush EPA and has held at least a seven-minute time of possession edge over two of its last three opponents. 

The Bulldogs have covered seven of their last eight games as an underdog against the Broncos, so I’m happy to be getting nearly a touchdown in this matchup.

Arizona State -20.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Hawaii

Arizona State turned in an absolute dud of a performance last week against Baylor, losing by 36 points at home and allowing 564 yards of total offense. But a Sun Devils offense that entered the week ranked outside the top 100 in rush success rate, EPA per play, and PPA should find solace in the fact that they had scoring drives of 51, 61, and 80 yards in the first half while recording most of its 409 total yards of offense while the game was still competitive.

This is a great buy-low spot against a Hawaii team that has scored touchdowns on just seven of 18 red zone opportunities. The 1-4 Rainbow Warriors also could be tired and jet-lagged from playing their sixth consecutive game.