[kingsr]

I hope Manly wins. I have them for futures bets. I also hope New wins!

[angelo63]

55 mins, have to have small bet on Tigers at 6.50 on Betfair...

[angelo63]

Result 7 + Plays 8 ,9 & 10

Play 7:
Cowboys @ Line +8 @ 1.91 x 2*


Season 6-1 + 5.42

Play 8

Raiders @ Line +2.5 x 2* @ 1.95

The Raiders are up for this match, Dugan and Campese to perform a little better than last week whilst Fensom will lead the pack.

Plays 9 + 10

Dragons @ Line -4 x 1* @ 1.95
Dragons @ ML x 1.5* @ 1.60

Dragons started off the season in style, whilst the Doggies fluked a win against a lacklustre Panthers, Dragons may lose Cooper but the loss of Pritchard will hurt the Doggies more. Dragons going for 7 in a row against the Dogs.

Good Luck to all and most importantly bet within your limits.

[Spartacuss]

Thanks for your pics Angelo. You really seem to know your NRL.

I'll be on the MLB big time this year. Mostly following Formula wizz, Paco and Dexter.

[angelo63]

Thanks Spartacuss, I will be betting in the MLB this year s well so ill look forward to checking out your fav cappers.

7 Season Plays = 6 wins 1 loss = +5.42 Units
Results Plays 8,9 &10
Play 8 : Titans v Raiders: Bet on the Raiders @ Line +2.5 x 2* @ 1.95: Win 1.9 Units
Plays 9:Bulldogs v Dragons:Bet on the Dragons @ Line -4 x 1* @ 1.95:Lose 1 Unit
Play 10:Bulldogs v Dragons: Bet on the Dragons @ ML x 1.5* @ 1.60:Lose 1.5 Units

10 season plays = 7wins 3 losses = + 4.82 Units

The Raider performed as expected even though Campsese and Dugan were still well below their best. The Dragons were woeful,not much can be said after the performance at Newcastle they were very dissapointing.
Having a good look at the Sharkies today and also later with the Rabbitohs, steeering away from Roosters v Panthers although the Over looks the play there.

[angelo63]

10 season plays = 7wins 3 losses = + 4.82 Units

Plays 11,12 &13


Outlay 3 units for today.

Play 11 : SharksV Knights: Bet on the SHARKS@ ML x 1 *@ 2.28
Plays 12:Storm V Rabbitohs:Bet on the RABBITOHS@ ML x1*@ 3.01
Play 13 Storm V Rabbitohs: Bet on the RABBITOHS@ LINE +6.5 x 1* @2.03


No time for a full preview today but have discussed quite a bit during the week.
Sharks played very well last week and at home will be up for a good showing today against the Knights , The value is with the home team here as they are a much better team at Shark Park, The Knights are still a work in progress and they will click soon enough but hopefully not today.
Rabbitohs are still smarting after Monday night, they have too much class and skill in their team to take it laying down and i expect them to be up for the challenge today. The ex players and coach factor plays a role but the whole South Sydney resurgence needs to stand up and be counted . I see the forwards dominating the Storm pack and that will ensure Reynolds kicking game can give them superior field position to grind out a win. The big 3 are always hard to beat in Melbourne but this time it might be the Rabbitohs day.

Good Luck to all and bet within your limits

[angelo63]

[QUOTE=angelo63;14080157]
10 season plays = 7wins 3 losses = + 4.82 Units

Plays 11,12 &13


Outlay 3 units for today.

Play 11 : SharksV Knights: Bet on the SHARKS@ ML x 1 *@ 2.28
Plays 12:Storm V Rabbitohs:Bet on the RABBITOHS@ ML x1*@ 3.01
Play 13 Storm V Rabbitohs: Bet on the RABBITOHS@ LINE +6.5 x 1* @2.03


13 Season Plays 7 wins 6 losses +1.82 Units

Interesting to see tom nights game with Hayne and Tonga likely to play.

[kingsr]

Result 7 + Plays 8 ,9 & 10

Play 7:
Cowboys @ Line +8 @ 1.91 x 2*


Season 6-1 + 5.42

Play 8

Raiders @ Line +2.5 x 2* @ 1.95

The Raiders are up for this match, Dugan and Campese to perform a little better than last week whilst Fensom will lead the pack.

Plays 9 + 10

Dragons @ Line -4 x 1* @ 1.95
Dragons @ ML x 1.5* @ 1.60

Dragons started off the season in style, whilst the Doggies fluked a win against a lacklustre Panthers, Dragons may lose Cooper but the loss of Pritchard will hurt the Doggies more. Dragons going for 7 in a row against the Dogs.

Good Luck to all and most importantly bet within your limits.

Doggies didn't fluke the game against panther. They were resilient in defense and never gave up. Their deteination in the second half got them the win.

Did they fluke it against the dragons too? Come on Angelo, how can u call the bulldogs win a fluke against panther?

[ultrasouth]

I know its only round 2 but the dogs r back.

In des we trust

[angelo63]

I know its only round 2 but the dogs r back.

In des we trust

The Doggies were impressive , but both the Panthers and The Dragons played very badly that was the Dragons worst defeat since they lost 41-6 to the Rabbitohs in a late round match in 2010 and then they went on to win the Premiership. We will know how genuine the Doggies are after this weeks visit to the Warriors. I see your a Paok supporter good to see, I am a Olimpiakos fan , still sooking about the Marseille Dortmund match that was fixed to knock us out of championsleauge..

[angelo63]

Play 14
Round 3 NRL

Roosters v Raiders /Raiders @ Line -1 x 2* @ 2.10 @ Ias bet

Simply have to take the line here at great value, will post more. This line will move and by Sunday i can see the Raiders around 1.85 .

[angelo63]

Doggies didn't fluke the game against panther. They were resilient in defense and never gave up. Their deteination in the second half got them the win.

Did they fluke it against the dragons too? Come on Angelo, how can u call the bulldogs win a fluke against panther?

I am not sold on the Doggies yet, Dragons were awful and i expect a quick return to form, The win against Newcastle was great and teh rubbish they showed against the Dogs was hard to watch. On form ans stats the Dragons were a bet for me, have to take the good with the bad. Hope you had a good win on the dogs , the price was lovely.

[benrama]

Yep - have to take the Raiders, bookies aren't in the business of giving away free money so I'm not sure what they see in the Roosters, but this line is a must play from what footy I've seen from both teams.

[kingsr]

Can only put it down to being early in the season and the books don't believe in raiders away form. It's an auto play for me at 2.00

[benrama]

I'd agree with it more if they didn't pull out the miracle win against Souths, then two games down you'd factor in desperation, but not going to over think this one!

[angelo63]

Early Odds and Leans
St George-Illa vs Wests Tigers 1.90 l 2.01
Newcastle vs Brisbane 2.00 l 1.92
Gold Coast vs Melbourne 3.05 l 1.47
Nth Queensland vs Parramatta 1.38 l 3.31
Warriors vs Bulldogs 1.54 l 2.66
Sydney Roosters vs Canberra 1.93 l 2.02
Penrith vs Souths 1.90 l 2.10
Cronulla vs Manly 2.75 l 1.52

4 toin cosses and 4 short priced favs.

I can make a case for the four dogs this week firstly the Gold Coast who have a decent record against the Storm and will be under pressure to notch a home win, Champion will be in and Idris may be out which will only strengthen the Titans . Possible In Play bet on the home team at the line.

The Raiders stood out as the bet of the week and the price has firmed already and happy that i have taken them already.

Dragons will be up for a bounce back after the rubbish they displayed last week. The Moltzen factor will play a role and the Tigers lack of concentration may cost them if the Dragons play their disciplined style. Leaning towards the Dragons at the ML

The Knights played well against the Sharks but there were a lot of holes up the middle of the ruck which the Sharks did get through but just dropped the ball every time, a team like Brisbane wont drop it like that and the can punish the Knights, Im Leaning strongly to the Broncos and will post a play early Friday after weather and late team changes are known.

Parramatta were gallant in defeat against the Warriors , if you take out the last try that could easily have gone to the Eels it would have been a 4 point game. The Eels sht themselves when Hayne went off, it was like the went into shock until Kearney gave them a rev up at half time. The Cows did the job for me last week , A over bet is the most likely play here . weather will determine where i go.

Warriors and Dogs is a tough game , the value is with the Dogs but I don't like betting against the Warriors, they are on a mission this year and have to learn to win as favs like they did on MNF . could be another in play bet if the Warriors give up some early points like they have done two weeks in a row 0-16 to Manly , 0-8 to EEls.

Will post some more tomorrow on the remaining two games.

[angelo63]

Hi , Just a note on how I am selecting my plays etc, I don’t use a specific model. There quite a few contributing factors as how i get a play

1) Value . The odds i am taking must represent value, I can’t sit here and tip a team at 1.33 because that is just plain silly. People like to take Multiples/parlays etc, A bookie friend of mine told me years ago ‘’What does a bookie like more than a two leg multi/parlay/”The answer was “ A 3 leg multi”
2) Form. How a team is playing. A team can be running into form, can have played a very bad game and will bounce back, are playing very well, playing without luck etc.
3) Injuries. Missing key players, players who may be carrying an injury etc.
4) Historical statistics
5) Current statistics
6) My own gut feeling
7) Luck
8) Coaches Influence

9) Crowd support
10) Team cohesion and news from the insiders , ex players etc.
After pondering over all these points i can then see if i can make a play, or more importantly not make a play. The plays you don’t make are the one where you save money. There is no point having a bet just for the sake of it, There are thousands of sporting events each year and they keep on coming , where here for a long time and of course a good time.
Season 2012 Current record 13-7-6 +1.82 Units



NRL ROUND 3


Play 15 : 2 Unit Play

Newcastle vs Brisbane
Play is 2 Units on Brisbane@ ML @ 1.92

Brisbane have an excellent record at Newcastle and they are leading the competition in line breaks thus far this season. Corey Parker is out and some of the workload will be shared around the other forwards but with Petero Civonoceva starting the pack looks quite solid. The Broncos have the attacking arsenal to cause the Knights a few problems.
The Knights have been very shabby in defence allowing the most line breaks in the comp so far and if the continue to do that this week the Broncos will cash in. The game will be played at a fast tempo and i expect a high scoring affair

Play 16: 2 unit Play

Newcastle vs Brisbane

Play is 2 Units on Over @36.5 x @ 1.87



Play 17: 2 Unit Play


St George- vs Wests Tigers

Play is 2 units on St George @ ML @ 1.90

[kingsr]

I'm on the opposite sides. Newcastle are playing better every week and Brisbane have not done much to impress me thus far. Life without Locky may be the reason. Corey Parker is a huge loss, more than most think. He averages 50 tackles per game. Newcastle have been training defense all week so look for improvement in the line breaks conceded department.

Dragons? Well they'll have to prove that life after Bennett isn't a hinderance on them. Soward seems lost without his Daddy Bennett and so does the whole team. Tigers are a devastating team in attack and can really rattle the draGONES!

Good luck.

[angelo63]

I'm on the opposite sides. Newcastle are playing better every week and Brisbane have not done much to impress me thus far. Life without Locky may be the reason. Corey Parker is a huge loss, more than most think. He averages 50 tackles per game. Newcastle have been training defense all week so look for improvement in the line breaks conceded department.

Dragons? Well they'll have to prove that life after Bennett isn't a hinderance on them. Soward seems lost without his Daddy Bennett and so does the whole team. Tigers are a devastating team in attack and can really rattle the draGONES!

Good luck.

The Dragons beat the Knights two weeks ago, The Knights are improving, but the Broncos are playing well and can score tries (8 already) Knights defence needs to improve a hell of a lot, The Sharks broke them open half a dozen times and threw the ball away. I have faith in the Broncos, There record in Newcastle is very good as well 21 games played there for 12 wins .I believe the Knights will improve every week and be a finals contender.

The Dragons played nearly as bad as teh Cowboys did against the Titans, an i expect them to win this game . They will be at Kogarah, They have the Moltzen issue as motivation on top of the shocking performance against the Dogs. The Tigers may not want to grind it out against the Dragons who will be more disciplined this week. The odds on both are value . The Over in the Newcastle Broncos game is also good value at the 36.5 line .

The Dogs will play their Grand Final this week and rattle the Warriors, It will be a great game to watch and no surprise to see the Dogs take the points

Good Luck

[benrama]

Like the over on the Newcastle vs Broncs game too, hadn't looked at that before you mentioned it.

What do you think of the under in the Saints vs Tigers game?

[angelo63]

Like the over on the Newcastle vs Broncs game too, hadn't looked at that before you mentioned it.

What do you think of the under in the Saints vs Tigers game?

I can only find TabSportsbet @ Under 38.5 at the ridiculous odds of 1.75, Bet 365 are a little more reasonable at Under 38.5 @ 1.91. I can see the match being tight, but the Tigers forwards are still a worry , If Ellis is out then they will have a hard time holding the Dragons pack. Sometimes when it all points to a defensive tussle it goes the other way. 6 out of the last 9 between these two have gone Under. I will wait and see if some better prices come up tommorrow.

[benrama]

Cheers mate - at 38.5 it's a must play for me, yes it could go the complete opposite way but I'm playing the long run game here.

[angelo63]

I just saw Cooper and Beau Scott are both cleared to play, that will help the cause for the under, Ill check in the morning and hopefully Pinny has a decent line as TabSPORTSbet is not somewhere i like to bet.

[rohan22no]

ATTN : Angelo

(cross posted this from Ben's Aussie thread)

Have been following the NRL threads for the last few weeks here, Im from Canberra too. Have been a professional poker player for the last 5 years. I have massive spreadsheets of data on NRL (historical odds since 2004, match results since 1997), and similar data for AFL and Super XV. Would love to chat to you guys, as Im taking sports betting seriously for the first time this year. I've had models for all 3 codes working since 2006.

Im available on Skype/MSN/email/here...Hit me up in this thread or PM me.

Cheers
Rohan

[Thatz It]

I have taken the Over Total Points in the Brisbane vs Newcastle game as well.

The Total line is up at Sportsbet set at 34.5 @ 1.90 odds for anyone interested.

Tabsportsbet have it set at 38.5

Pinnacle have it set at 37.5

[benrama]

1) Value . The odds i am taking must represent value, I can’t sit here and tip a team at 1.33 because that is just plain silly. People like to take Multiples/parlays etc, A bookie friend of mine told me years ago ‘’What does a bookie like more than a two leg multi/parlay/”The answer was “ A 3 leg multi”

True given that most punters are losing betters getting 50/50 at best, in that case multi's reduce your bankroll quicker than straight bets but the reverse is also true, if you're a >55% better you are better off playing multi's see e.g. the excellent summary of this by Ganchrow, http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...1-parlays.html

That was an aside, Sportsbet is offering 34.5 on the Newcastle vs Broncs game tonight, I don't bet much with them these days but can't beat that value.

No read whatsoever on the Saints vs Tigers game on the side, just a small-ish play on the under.

BOL this weekend mate!

[angelo63]

Thanks for that mate, I will have a good read of it later . I do play a few Multis but mainly on Soccer , with home favs, ,like Barcelona, Real Madrid, Man Utd, Man City , Celtic etc etc , average odds of around 1.22 but strike rate is quite good. I can also pick a couple of NBA teams as well as a tennis match or two and enjoy success with Multis. The NRL is way too hard to get value in a multi though. Dragons look good with Cooper in and Tigers will struggle without Ellis ( he may play but wont be 100%)
Looking for a good size play on the Rabbits.

Good Luck with it all, I can see the Doggies getting up on Sunday against the Warriors, I can,t back the Warriors at the price they are showing, The Eels did perform well against them and the score was a blowout. The only thing you may not like is the Dogs will be 3-0 and everyone will jump on the bandwagon.

[angelo63]

. and sporting bet also offering good deals. The free bets add up and gives us a slight edge . good luck

[kingsr]

Nice wins tonight Ang...I was completely wrong in my read

Totally agree on Souths. I have been screaming them all week. This is a MUST WIN game for them!

[benrama]

Good call on the Saints, surprised how easily they penetrated the Tigers defense; backing good teams to make amends for a shocker the week before is always a good betting angle, I just couldn't pull the trigger on it.

How bad did the Knights look though? Totally impotent in attack, they were struggling to get out of their own 50 with their sets while Brisbane were doing it with ease. Uate is the only player that looked dangerous. Some worrying signs there.

[angelo63]

Dragons had the BBF ( Bounce Back factor) Short priced favs losing horribly the week before and bouncing back to form, The Cowboys did the same thing last week after the horrible loss to the Titans..

Bloody Broncos dropped so my chances to lose us the OVER bet, and Knights showed no attack at all, I will watch the game again to see if the KNights attack ws so bad or the Broncos defence was so good, more than likely a mixture of the two.

I am not having a bet today in either game as i do think the Bookies have it pretty much right.

Raiders i am already on for Tommorrow and the Rabbitohs are a definite bet at the price they are . I have heard that Willie Mason is going to become a Panther, that alone is a sign of desperation by the Panthers and is telling me the forward strength out there is very weak. No such problem with the Rabbitohs pack , I cant see them losing this one.

Good Luck

[angelo63]

Good call on the Saints, surprised how easily they penetrated the Tigers defense; backing good teams to make amends for a shocker the week before is always a good betting angle, I just couldn't pull the trigger on it.

How bad did the Knights look though? Totally impotent in attack, they were struggling to get out of their own 50 with their sets while Brisbane were doing it with ease. Uate is the only player that looked dangerous. Some worrying signs there.

Dragons forwards totally out muscled the Tigers pack who did miss Ellis, The Dragons were a lot sharper in defence after last week, but the ease in which the forwards ploughed through the middle of the field exposed some flaws in the Tigers forwards.

Rest today an onto rabbitohs and raiders tommorrow.

[brettels]

be careful with the cowboys/eels totals, has rained alot in townsville with over 100mm in 2 days, more on the way. lots of dropped ball tonight. find the highest total and play under.

[angelo63]

be careful with the cowboys/eels totals, has rained alot in townsville with over 100mm in 2 days, more on the way. lots of dropped ball tonight. find the highest total and play under.

Thanks mate, I am giving the game a miss as i will be out . you live up there?

[brettels]

yep, 5 minutes from the stadium.