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I think Broncos are not a bad bet to win the premiership, with their young guys they are only going to get better as the season goes on. Big thing for them is to make it through SOO relatively unscathed.
I'm not sure I agree that Manly have problems with depth, to give St George a run for their money without Stewart and Williams shows they still have a pretty decent side.
Broncos are a definite bet for the Premiership, I like betting in the Betfair market as i can make a book there over the season at this stage it looks like Storm will dominate the betting and firm into 3.50 to 4 soon enough , with the Broncos second pick at around 5 and Warriors hovering around 8. I like Broncos , warriors and Cowboys and like to get at least 10 to 1 on each one, makes for some great trading during semi finals where the Premiership odds fluctuate dramatically. The Warriors traded at around 40 during the loss to the Tigers in week 1 and as short as 2.40 after the win in the preliminary final , huge margins..
It is all exciting and the Raiders now look like the are a serious contender for the 8
Really not sure what you see in Brisbane so far. They haven't played any decent competition yet.
Week 1 Beat Parra lol my grandmother team can beat them
Week 2 Lost to Nth Qld ( another questionable team)
Week 3 Beat a Newcastle team who had no structure under Bennet (rebuilding)
Week 4 Beat Souths, who we all know CANT CLOSE OUT games.
I'm not yet convinced with Bris, they haven't been great to me even during their wins.
On the other hand, how shocking are the Tigers! Clearly problems at that club. They have been amongst the worst this year. I don't like their chances to make the 8 this year.
Sharks are Raiders could make a run this year. Raider very impressive so far and Sharks are a work horse. 2 smokeys for the Top 8.
Angelo I'll take your bet for Bribane premiership winners and ill give you 10% more than any other agency
The Broncos are a team learning to play without Lockyer, they cant do more than win, winning whilst playing average football is the sign of a good team, Can we say the Storm are no good? who have they beat? raiders in the wet, Titans, Roosters and the Rabbits . The season is still young and you dont win premierships in March, it is such an even competition that a few wins in a row and you could be in the hunt for a top 4.
But the Storm have woin in spectacular fashion and are +83 in for and against points. I cant see them any less than a minor prem. Yes I'm willing to call it from now.
I'm not saying Brisbane are not good. They are OK is what I'm saying and yet to convince me they are premiership material.
My Grandmother could win in spectacular fashion against the Titans and Roosters, I gues then the Panthers are a premiership threat after there spectacular win against the Eels. Bellamy knows the Storm need to get points early to counter the SOO series, dont get me wrong the Storm are a good team, they just wont win the premiership because they lack the forward muscle to match it with teams like the Broncos, Dragons , Warriors I will belaying them when they get into about 3.50 . The other problem they have if one of the big three get injured they are in trouble.
The Storm are still a team to bet on to cover a line though when they face some of the weaker teams in the comp like the Roosters and Titans, it was so good yesterday i found myself watching the Bulldogs Knights game live after half time in the Storm match because it was like a Toyota cup game, I was laughing later when Anasta and smith were saying they were not going to blame the refs for some bad decisions against them, They both know the gravy train at Bondi is stopping and they are both getting off next year and will struggle to be motivated this year, i feel sorry for Mitchell Pearce as he i stuck in this team all year.
Everyone has a favourite, yours is Brisbane clearly. We will see at the business end.
Origin hasn't really affected Melb Storm for the last 5 years. It wont this year either. Melb, Dragons, Warriors, Bulldogs, Manly are more impressive than Brisbane IMO
No Brisbane is not my favourite , I like to be able to see potential in a team and get get odds about them winning the comp, The only bet i have had so far is on the Cowboys at 24 to1. Th eteams i sback dont have to win the comp they just have to firm in the market towrds finals time and i can lay off at a much shorter quote, for eg..two years ago i had backed the Tigers at 22 to 1 during the season and when they made the prelim against the Dragons who i had also backed at 10 to 1 i was able to trade in the game , I layed off money on the Tigers at 3.75 , before Mr Soward sent tigers fans into misery and led the Dragons to the grand final, at the end of the day it is about making money and i have to make calls based on potential and value, I can write of any bets on the Storm as there is no value in backing them as i dont think they will win it this year, same for the Dogs.Originally Posted by kingsr
My ideal situation is for the two or three teams i back face each other in the preliminary final and it is a win win situation, So i like all teams which i beleive can win it, at this stage i have three in mind, Broncos, Warriors and Cowboys and i have only backed the Cowboys because there price will come in .
Lets not forget Manly were at 25 to 1 last year in week 3, so the winner is is out there, no one is yet good enough to be classed too good, and we know there are a few fighting for the spoon ( Rooters at 10 to 1) w .
My Theory is each team plays a grand final during the season, the team that manages to peak in the last week is the eventual winner, I believe the Roosters played there Grand Final against the Rabbits in round one, they wont reach any higher this year, and maybe the Panthers did against the Eels and looking back the Titans against the Cowboys.
Teams such as the Sharks, Raiders and Rabbits have the potential to make the 8 along with the Knights and in my mind outside flag chances if all goes right .
I will be having a good look at the Cowboys next week , they need to perform before SOO because they will lose a few players , with Thurston, Scott and Tate definite, Im thinking the Sharks are better than most people think and the win against the Cowboys was no fluke.
Round 5 Plays
Round 5 NRL Plays
Play 32 : 1.5 Unit Play
Broncos V Dragons
Play is 1.5 Units on Dragons ML @ 2.50
Play 33 : 1.5 Unit Play
Broncos V Dragons
Play is 1.5 Units on Dragons Line +4.5@ 1.95
The Dragons form is excellent , whilst the Broncos have also been playing very well they may fid it hard to get over the Dragons pack , I can see a close game here and with the start and value the Dragons are my choice.
Play 34 : 1 Unit Play
Storm V Knights
Play is 1 Unit on Knights ML@3.23
Play 35: 2 Unit Play
Storm V Knights
Play is 2 Units on Knights Line+8.5@1.95
The Knights can get the Storm into an arm wrestle and this would give them a chance in what looks like being a defensive battle. The 7.5 line is generous in a game that will be low scoring with only a try or two in it so again the value is with the Knights.
Play 36; 3 Unit Play
Panthers V Sharks
Play is 3 Units on Sharks ML@2.25
The bookies over reacted the Panthers big win against the Eels, The Panthers could not do a thing wrong last week and will face up to a team that is striving to be consistent and be a top 8 contender, I rated the harks around 1.75 for this game so getting2.25 makes them my biggest play of the year so far.
Play 37: 2 Unit Play
Parramatta V Manly
Play is 2 Units Parramatta Line + 9.5@1.90
Simple here, The Eels have Hayne back, they can’t play as badly as they did last week and can you seriously think of taking the Sea Eagles with a minus 9.5 line? Manly are missing Glenn Stewart badly his work on the right edge has been missed and they seem flat , The Eels will tackle there hearts out with Hindy announcing his retirement so this game will be a close one .
Play 38: 3Unit Play
Roosters v Warriors
Play is 3 Units on Warriors Line -4.5@1.95
Too big, Too fast, Too strong and too Good that’s about it to be honest, one of the best teams in the comp up against the worst team and only a small line of 4.5 to overcome, the Warriors lose Locke but gain Fishiahi who has scored around 8 tries in his last two games in the NYC, I expect Konrd Hurrell to play a blinder off the bench as he will show SKD who is the best Kiwi centre in the NRL.
Play 39 Is a 2 Unit Play
Raiders V Cowboys
Play is 2 Units on Cowboys @ ML 2.37
The Cows were beaten last week by the Sharks and i sense the underestimated them this week they travel to Canberra to play the inform Raiders. The Cowboys away record over the last 3 or 4 years is abysmal, they have won their only away game this year against the Broncos and are preparing for this game like it is a semi final. Neil Henry served his apprenticeship in the nation’s capital so he knows what will be required to win and he brings a squad that is more than capable, the return of Tariq Simms will bolster the pack now that Matt Scott is out for a few weeks This game will be a tight one as well and it will come down to some brilliance to win it, The Cows have a few players capable of this in Thurston and Bowen whilst the Raiders will still be missing Dugan
Avoiding the Titans v Dogs game as there is a lot of uncertainty in regards to Prince and Idris playing as well as the well publicised financial woes, there has been a lot of money around backing the Titans at the Line. I will stay out of that game as it smells fishy. A very even round here and the only true favourite based on the opposition are the Warriors, they should easily account for the woeful Roosters.
Good Luck to all
Last edited by angelo63; 03-29-12 at 11:30 PM. Reason: typo
I like your plays, my favourite two were the Sharks and Dragons, I dont think either should be underdogs, the Dragons like playing in Brisbane and the Sharks are a fantatic team atm, who has Penrith beaten ? Parra and the Roosters, the Sharks are a much better team in my opnion. I thought that Storm / Knights game should be underish and the Tigers game should be overish.
Good luck with it all mate
I like all these plays...there's some great value that I just dont understand, for example Dragons $2.50? WTF? Surely that game should be closer to even in the betting...
I was actually leaning Canberra tbh, but it might be a reaction to last weeks game ... will rethink it more
Raiders have a tendancy to turn it up, like they did Monday night, and then die in the ass the next week. Nth Qld need to win this game, and will be travelling with all intention to. Hopefully JT gets his hands on the ball more this week. +4 is the play in a fairly even contest.
This week is value week, After 4 rounds we can assess some form and also see tremendous value, Dragons certainly at 2.50 in a coin flip are the bet, The Knights at the generous line are also a bet for me, I know people dnt like baking against the Storm but this line is huge for this game on recent form. Would anyone back the Panthers at 1.67? Sharks should firm right in by game time. Eels also hae a good line , with Hayne they can score 3 tries so tha means manly must score 5 or more.Theehas been a lt of money for the Titans in the last 24 hours but i cant put any of mine on them, they arecapable of makingit a close game but i would want 8 or better to back them.
I also am very confident on the Warriors this week, The roosters fluked it against the Raiders and Rabbits but can disguise how inept they are when they face a classy team like the Storm and this week Warriors.
It is exctitng this week as the Books may have got it all wrong, I hope. The Under in the Knights game is set at 36 which is just too low, although everything pionts to a tight match the bookies are onto it.
God Luck to all
In the Titans game, Idris is out for sure, and Prince is a chance of playing. The price adjustment may just be that he is confirmed playing and not so much money coming for them. I'd HATE if we lost to the woeful Titans.
Both half backs are out for the GC and the Dogs ... no one can bet GC, their off field issues alone should warrant that, my questions is will there be many points in this game, the Dogs struggled for points when their halfback went down, GC run all their plays off Prince too, plus he is their goalkicker.
Read my previous post. Prince is a big chance of playing!
Dogs have Keating who has been killing it in NSW cup. Whether he can step it up in the top grade is questionable. But in NSW cup he's been MOM 3 games in a row! So I think he will be out to impress Des, and try and cement a spot in the side. It's a great chance to bring him in against a woeful Titans team. Bulldogs will win regardless of Keating good form. After losing last week, I'm sure Des has them ready!
There are so many good games to bet on this week that the Titans Dogs game is easy to pass on, I wont be surprised if the Dogs win by 20 and i wont be surprised if the Titans win. There has been a flood of maney on the Titans at the line , not as much as Parra at the line but a close second.o
Agree much better games to bet on that dont have so many external factors. Sharks, Dragons, Nth Qld
BTW I'll be sold on Bris if they can muster up a convinving win tonight.
Play is 2 Units on Knights Line+4.5@1.95
I am guessing you mean 7.5?Its at 8.5 at the TAB atm
Lets get a good start tonight with the Dragons and enjoy the rest of the weekend. I also have high hopes with the Knights because of the Bennett factor, more so that he is up against his old apprentice Bellamy and he always wants to show him who is boss.
Yes 8.5 sorry it as my typo ill adjust it.
Would love to see a KNIGHTS win tonight. I think tonight is a great opportunity for them to pull an upset.
Yeah, Melbourne have to lose eventually.
Storm are so clinical, I just simply can't bet against them right now. I think they actually match up best against teams that have a high error count, that's one of my angles over the last part of the season (Knights weren't in that category). Slater is already the best player of all time and we get to see him in his prime, enjoy it I reckon!
can anybody tell me if they know whether hayne is in good form after his absence?
Hayne hasn't played since his absence, so how can we tell if he is in good form?
Eels looked really good against the Warriors for about the first quarter of the game with Hayne in the side, but hard to see them winning against Manly.
Hayne looked fantastic until he went off against the Warriors, He will be 100% tonight as they would not risk bringing him back so early, all the doom and gloom brought about by 4 losses is a little over the top, NRL in March is not remembered in August and September, Last seasons Grand Finalists Manly and Warriors both had very slow starts The Warrior were 1-3 and Manly 2-2 , so all the Hysteria being created is media hype. Value about the Eels with a generous 9.5 start against a out of form, tired looking Manly team. The last 4 contests between these two have been split 2-2 and the Highest winning margin has been seven.
The Eels will turn up to play tonight, they have no choice the major bonus is Hayne, his presence will lift the others and allow Sandow some space.
There is some value with a Multi tonight with the Sharks ML into the Warriors line-5.5 paying 4.60.
The Sharks have confidence and are playing a team that is very up and down with their form, The Sharks pack has too much firepower for the Panthers and the Warriors should easily cover the line against the Spooner Roosters.
thanks bro. gl with the eels tonight, i'm on the spread as well.
Haha sharkies scraped through! Woohoooo!!!!
Sharks Dragons next week will be a beauty. Under will be money and there should be some value on the Sharks
The Eels saluted at the ML which was around 3.25, So if the Eels win next week and Manly lose they both will be 2-4 , the NRL is such a close competition , its hard to write off any team ( I still think Roosters and Panthers are going to have a massive fight with the Gold Coast for the spoon, the rest is open.
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