1. #71
    ThaBigG
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    Nice work over backers!!

  2. #72
    angelo63
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    The Roosters are as bad as i thought, It has been good to watch them and I cant believe they are still in the game, fading the Roosters will be one of my major plays this year. Souths will improve and with matchwinners like Burgess and Inglis they will be capable of beating any team......... oh my ......what a finish

  3. #73
    hawley
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    holy shit

  4. #74
    snufflyjoe
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    Awesome really stoked that worked out! I may try this again

  5. #75
    angelo63
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    Souths were 1.02 on betfair Roosters 26.00 . I would be sick in my stomach if i had backed souths..In play the only way at this time of the year..

  6. #76
    Sol
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    Amazing. I was real worried about the over not hitting. Filthy loss for Souths backers.

  7. #77
    angelo63
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    I feel for Souths, They were the best team by far, Field position, General play, Dominant defence, I feel for the Rabbits, These derby games are hard, the Monday night influence also took its toll. Everything said to play Souths but the uncertainty of early season games comes to fore. Fitness could of been the key.

    Poor Rabbits need to learn to keep going, Imagine the trades who took 1.02 on Betfair , it was up with 10 to go and there was some volume...

  8. #78
    benrama
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    Good reading in this thread, shame I couldn't join in the in-game analysis. How the hell did Souths lose that? They were error prone early on but completely dominated the 2H until those last few minutes. Roosters did just enough to stick around long enough to make a final dash for cash. I don't think either team played that great to be honest, but Souths have by far the greater talent around the field. I liked the look of Taylor, Sutton and of course Burgess. Roosters, I agree are in for one rough 2012.

    I see you use Betfair for your live trading Angelo? How do you find that overall?

  9. #79
    angelo63
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    I find it quicker than anywhere else, and volume is usually there>

    I have also found another agency that has a 60 second cancel option from when i place the bet, as they don't give me the price... I give them my prop number then they call out the bet and price ..I just found out there is 60 seconds to cancel the bet because I don't know the exact price at the time i call it...Just a little loophole , You can watch a team attacking a set of six and have the price locked in anticipating a score and if they muck it up you cancel...If you Private message me I will let you know where..

  10. #80
    kingsr
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    Hey Angelo, If you dont mind sending me a pm with the details of this site?

  11. #81
    angelo63
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    Round 1 Wrap up and Round 2 Early Leans:

    Leans at this point subject to change , Odds line ups , weather etc.

    Dragons/Raiders/Sharks/ Rabbitohs


    The NRL is back and what a week it was.

    Dragons : They will be a force this year , Good win, Should of won easily and with the disciplined approach will put the Bulldogs away easily this week.

    Knights: A lot of pressure on them to perform in the first game of the season, there are encouraging signs but face the Sharks who will be up for it at home. Pass this week

    Eels: Workmanlike display and were in t for 60 mins, but need some creativity in attack a lot depends on Hayne and Tonga playing . Pass this week

    Broncos: Good effort , worked hard and dropped a lot of ball but came away with a good win. Odds will be too short to back this week though.

    Raiders: Were impressive against Melbourne, Campo and Dugan need to fire but definitley worth following his week at odds in the Black.

    Storm: Not a typical Storm effort against the Riders but the big 3 always a chance, they are a risk against the wounded Bunnies who can monster their pack.
    Panthers: Threw away the game against the Dogs, Gordon will be missed but they can always cause an upset, will monitor the odds as i don't rate the Roosters.

    Dogs:Pritchard was a handful for the Panthers , not sure he will play but I cant see the Dogs beating the Saints.

    Cowboys: A very very poor effort and they will play a lot better this week, there is too much class in the team for them to play that badly again, Tate in is a boost. Possible line bet

    Titans: Won well, but the game was handed to them , they will be tested this week and worth going against them.

    Warriors: Good performance, were slow out of the blocks and Manly had bolted. They will be short odds against the eels and the Monday Night Football curse may strike them.

    Tigers: Fell into the trap of thinking they had put the Sharks away and managed to fluke a win, The odds they are this week are way too short

    Sharks: Great effort and they will be out to win at home and they should.

    Souths: Focus is on playing 80 mins not 78. they will havelearnt the lesson and looked good against the Roosters, Matchwinners in Burgess, Inglis and Croker will have them fired up in Melbourne.

    Roosters: Every team plays their own Grand final at some stage of the year, I think the Roosters played theirs on Monday night .My Favs for the spoon

  12. #82
    kingsr
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    Manly aren't playing at home (manly) as such. They're playing a blue tounge stadium which is quite stupid if you ask me. Why take a game to blue tounge? What relevance is there? How many manly fans will actually show up?

    I think Tigers are the right price. Manly have some injuries to key players, Matai (6weeks), Stewart (dislocated finger) and Kerian Foran (knee and ankle). Also they have a 5 day turn around, having to travel back from NZ and then out to central coast on Friday has gotta take it's toll to some degree.


    Just food for thought.
    Last edited by kingsr; 03-06-12 at 03:12 AM.

  13. #83
    angelo63
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    I had penciled in the Tigers for this one a while back but i don't like the price. The Tigers played in the heat on the weekend and that does take a bit out of you , I was not too impressed with the Tigers, They seem to get in a comfort zone and switch off, I will more than likely give this game a miss and watch in play and see what transpires. There is the issue of the social cricket game that went nasty between them last year , it was that bad that Manly did not seek to play the Tigers again this year and played the Sharks instead. I would be hoping for Manly to smash up the Tigers so they will be easier fodder for the dragons the following week.

  14. #84
    kingsr
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    Quote Originally Posted by angelo63 View Post
    I had penciled in the Tigers for this one a while back but i don't like the price. The Tigers played in the heat on the weekend and that does take a bit out of you , I was not too impressed with the Tigers, They seem to get in a comfort zone and switch off, I will more than likely give this game a miss and watch in play and see what transpires. There is the issue of the social cricket game that went nasty between them last year , it was that bad that Manly did not seek to play the Tigers again this year and played the Sharks instead. I would be hoping for Manly to smash up the Tigers so they will be easier fodder for the dragons the following week.

    That's the Tigers trademark! They switch off and wake up during games which is why they won soooo many close games last year. They have a X factor about them and seem to know how to win games in the clutch.

    I think that game last year was at Bluetounge stadium, if my memory seves me correctly?

    I'm sitting back on this one too. I hope Manly tear them apart!


    I really like Newcastle this week. Not too sure about the sharks's attack.

  15. #85
    kingsr
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    Also not sure why you'd favour Souths to beat Melb in Melb? I just don't see it. Melbourne are disciplined while souths are the opposite. Melb are extremely hard to beat at home, and it will take a better team than Souths to challenge them in their haven.

  16. #86
    angelo63
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    The Sharks attack is always a worry but Carny showed glimpses in the second half and Stapelton is very classy. The bomb is there weapon of choice and Stewart Mills and john Williams can catch a decent ball. It is never going to be pretty with the Sharks but the pack will match the Knights if not shade them and Gallen really wants a win at home. The Knights i like to go a long way this year but one more loss would be good for them ( lol) good for their odds for the 8 /4 and Flag.

  17. #87
    angelo63
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    Souths will be value, If they concede an early try their odds could be 4.00 or higher and I can see value there. I think there pack can worry the Storms just like the Raiders did last week, plus the old firm Stormers, Croker, King and Inglis as well as Maguire will be out to beat their old mates. I wont be touching the Storm at 1.50 etc.

  18. #88

  19. #89
    angelo63
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    Season 5-1 +3.6

    Play 7:
    Cowboys @ Line +8 @ 1.91 x 2*


    Too much class in the Cowboys lineup to not go close here, Tate and Segyaro will add class and enthusiasm.

  20. #90
    angelo63
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    The 1.90 on the Tigers @ 0 is very tempting as well, waiting to see if Foran is out for sure but it is the right price to back the Tigers, who will be without Galloway.

  21. #91
    benrama
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    Wow, books are all over the place on this line NQ/Brisbane line, Centrebet has it at +5.5. At that line it's an auto play for me on Brisbane, at +8 it's probably a play on NQ or nothing.

    Other random thoughts, just quickly ...

    Can't agree with liking Souths playing in Melbourne, I'd say Storm have one of the top 4 home grounds in the comp (NQ, Manly, Warriors, Storm), the packs even each other out and Storm have the class in the back-line and halves.

    Without Pritchard Saints is a strong play for me on the ML. I also like the under on that game depending on the line.

    All the value with Cronulla at home - they should have won at Leichhardt and have a really good side all round - only weak in the centres with Pomeroy and Best.

    Canberra is a play based on what you and others have said - just concerned about backing them away from home.

    Roosters/Panthers is a shit game, and should be avoided.

    Warriors should run all over the Eels but it's MNF and anything can happen.

    Manly still being under-rated against the Tigers, yes it's at Blue Tongue but it's still a home game support wise. Manly are the deepest side in the league, and their travel of late is balanced by Tigers having a tough battle in the hottest day in Sydney in recent memory.

    Canberra, Cronulla, Manly and Broncos/Saints look like my leans for the weekend.

  22. #92
    angelo63
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    Quote Originally Posted by benrama View Post
    Wow, books are all over the place on this line NQ/Brisbane line, Centrebet has it at +5.5. At that line it's an auto play for me on Brisbane, at +8 it's probably a play on NQ or nothing.

    Other random thoughts, just quickly ...

    Can't agree with liking Souths playing in Melbourne, I'd say Storm have one of the top 4 home grounds in the comp (NQ, Manly, Warriors, Storm), the packs even each other out and Storm have the class in the back-line and halves.

    Without Pritchard Saints is a strong play for me on the ML. I also like the under on that game depending on the line.

    All the value with Cronulla at home - they should have won at Leichhardt and have a really good side all round - only weak in the centres with Pomeroy and Best.

    Canberra is a play based on what you and others have said - just concerned about backing them away from home.

    Roosters/Panthers is a shit game, and should be avoided.

    Warriors should run all over the Eels but it's MNF and anything can happen.

    Manly still being under-rated against the Tigers, yes it's at Blue Tongue but it's still a home game support wise. Manly are the deepest side in the league, and their travel of late is balanced by Tigers having a tough battle in the hottest day in Sydney in recent memory.

    Canberra, Cronulla, Manly and Broncos/Saints look like my leans for the weekend.
    Saints are the Main play for me this week , I will take them at the ML and also at the Minus 4, without Pritchard i cant see too much attack from the Dogs.

    Sharks will also be a play , just not sure as to when , either in play or to win 2.20 sportsbet with you getting money back if your in front at the 70 min mark.

    Raiders also look strong Learoyd Lars is out but the have depth to cover him , I think Joel Thompson will come in to the team as well. Same price at Sportsbet at 2.20

    I'm On The Cowboys already with the 8 Points and happy with that, Can trade during the game

    The Price on the Tigers is enticing now but i will wait to see injuries and weather .

    Lots can change in the next day or two

    MNF is always good for an upset and as we saw on Monday just past anything can happen.

    Rabbits are a worry , but they played quite well, it was a little like last year when the Tigers could not put the Warriors away in the semi final...This Rabbitohs team is not like any of the last few years, the coach is very good and he has some class players in Inglis, Burgess, King and others with him plus Reynolds was impressive...I like them and I know the Storm are very hard to beat at home. I watched the Storm live last week and they dont look like the team of old. The big 3 are there and Slater is a match winner but i sense the old guard of Inglis, King , Croker and Maguire will be up fr a big one...

    Good discussion and it makes the punting easier , I liked the prices at victor bet or whatever there called now, I have had an account for years but rarely use it ..

    Good Luck

  23. #93
    benrama
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    We're definitely more in agreement than disagreement, and we can both hit on NQ/Broncs as I'll be taking Broncs -5.5 and ML in conjunction (likely) with Saints.

    You could be right on the Storm, I guess I have faith in Bellamy as a coach and missing 33 tackles in round 1 sticks out as a key area that he will make sure improves at home. They also gave up 2 more penalties than the Raiders, Bellamy will make sure the guys play very clinical this week and I just don't think Souths are able to compete with that style. I honestly think they are more likely to beat - say - a Tigers or Warriors. I still have Storm for the top 4 though I didn't end up making them my major future play - too concerned about their depth this year.

    Weather looks pretty good on the central coast this weekend, so I'd assume it's a dry ground. Obviously Manly will miss Stewart/Matai, but they have such a deep team - as I've said before any team that can bring Lussick off the bench is blessed for riches. I just don't get them being underdogs in a technical home game.

  24. #94
    benrama
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    And not to mention Tigers have lost Tedesco for the season, are still without Tuqiri and Galloway.

  25. #95
    kingsr
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    Agree with all your leans Benrama except for Newcastle. Well that's more me maybe being biased but after watching both teams last week, Dragons v New and Sharks V Tigers, I'd say Newcastle had a much tougher opponent and only just managed to lose. Sharks (at their best?) were unlucky to lose against a fairly poor performance from Tigers.

    It's a tough game.

  26. #96
    benrama
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    Don't worry it's a hard bet for me to make because Knights are MY team, I grew up near Newcastle, went to Newcastle university and I was there in Newcastle the night they won the premiership - which still stands out as one of the most epic nights of my life.

    Sharks made more line breaks and metres than the Tigers in the Tigers home den - and their completion rate was poor and they made a lot of errors (just looked it up - 17 of them) - so plenty of room to improve. I still think Newcastle will take another week or two to adjust to life under Bennett, they just didn't look fluent in round 1.

    Should be a good game either way, and if I make a play on Cronulla I'll be happy to lose; and if the Sharks win then I'm hoping for some juicy top 8 odds on the Knights.

    Aside: Manly are $1.40 to make the top 8 on Centrebet after beating the Warriors on their home turf - talk about free money.

  27. #97
    hawley
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    Depending on the line I like a lot of unders this week. I can see some very tight low scoring affairs.

    Have to disagree with you on the Rabbitohs and Storm packs being a wash. Souths are much better in the forwards IMO but ultimately it is hard to go past the Storm playing their home opener.

  28. #98
    benrama
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    Based on round 1 I'd agree, but Manu/Hoffman/Lowrie are experienced and I think can make the forward battle a wash at home. Keep in mind too that Melbourne makes a lot of yards through dummy half and often their outside backs make more metres than the forwards as they did against Canberra.

    Very interested to see what over/under lines are set at too, and if books over or under adjust given the wet conditions of most games last weekend. Souths/Melbourne could be a candidate under - the Storm will be keen to make amends for the missed tackles against Canberra and with Cronk's kicking can play a clinical kicking and territory game - waiting for Souths to make a mistake coming out from their end of the field. Wouldn't be surprised with a 18-12 type scoreline.

  29. #99
    angelo63
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    The point here is the prices, are you willing to take 1.50 on the Storm hoping the forwards will come up or take Souths at the line knowing that their pack will be hungry, Issac Luke will be back as well.I am putting my faith in some classy forwards , it is nearly a full International pack , Burgess, Asotasi, Pettybourne etc etc.Time for Souths to man up . Storms best forward was Manu last week, I thought Hoffman was disappointing but I guess i was judging him on his 2009/2010 form. Wet will be even better for Souths.

  30. #100
    hawley
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    I wouldn't take the storm at that price, I vary rarely lay any chalk, but are you willing to back a team that gave up two tries in the final couple of minutes of a game?

    Souths forward pack absolutely overshadows the Roosters pack yet they failed to convert all that dominance into anything and ended up rolling over.

  31. #101
    benrama
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    Yea, think we are agreed here that the Storm/Souths game has little value, except perhaps to get a good line on Souths in play if Storm go in early, or vice versa.

    Weather is looking pretty good for the weekend.

  32. #102
    brettels
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    Sportal thinks the cowboys will bounce back and beat the broncos! this is one of the few times i will be disagreeing with them.

  33. #103
    kingsr
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    Quote Originally Posted by angelo63 View Post
    The point here is the prices, are you willing to take 1.50 on the Storm hoping the forwards will come up or take Souths at the line knowing that their pack will be hungry, Issac Luke will be back as well.I am putting my faith in some classy forwards , it is nearly a full International pack , Burgess, Asotasi, Pettybourne etc etc.Time for Souths to man up . Storms best forward was Manu last week, I thought Hoffman was disappointing but I guess i was judging him on his 2009/2010 form. Wet will be even better for Souths.

    Please explain this? So there's more chance of drop ball for them? Not that they don't already make enough errors.

    Burgess looks amazing and is playing out of his skin, it's like he was on speed! Can he keep up that same intensity though?

    Melb are a classy outfit, they train well, are VERY disciplined and play each team according to their style of play. They have the ability to easily expose weaknesses in oppostion, and they do it perfectly. They'll be hard to beat at home. I'm not convinced on Souths, I know MANY are, and many cappers I respect really like the Souths chances this year. But I'm just not convinced yet. If they manage a win in Melb, It may sway me.

    It is Souths, they have a LOSING culture. That's why im a non-believer.

    I think the 1.50 for storm at home is a decent price, if combined with another leg for a 2 leg multi.

  34. #104
    angelo63
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    Monday nights game was a fluke, I liked Souths before, during and then jumped on the Roosters at the 60 min mark because the price was right. There was $67,000 tradedon Souths at 1.01 on Betfair. If anyon had backed Souths they could of got out at 1.10 ( laying) with 15 to go, you would be crazy not too.

    Back to Storm and Souths , I look for Value and the value is in the Rabbits, they have a shocking record against the storm , but so did the Raiders and they nearly pulled it off. It is still early and lineups and weather are still to be taken into account. It is on at 7 pm Sunday so that gives us plenty of time .

  35. #105
    angelo63
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    Manly Tigers game is just getting too hard with so many variables, Travel, Heat , Injuries all playing a role, Foran will play and that sways back to Manly. A good game to watch, Maybe a small bet on the Draw.
    Last edited by angelo63; 03-07-12 at 10:19 PM.

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