[angelo63]

I thought i would post in my own thread as not to annoy other people on their threads, Happily will discuss all things NRL in this thread as well as contributing to others on smaller scale. First plays were on the WCC and had a couple of wins on Leeds. I will post 1* 2* and 3* picks throughout the season. Starting off with 1* plays early as we will need a few weeks to see where each team is at. I also play a lot of in play bets but wont be able to post them. It is amazing how many teams are not up to the fitness levels of others early on and this can cause huge points reversals during a game. Good luck to all.

Plays 1 & 2
Preview: WCC Leeds Rhinos V Manly Sea Eagles
Current odds :
ML Leeds 2.58 Manly 1.57
Points Spread: Leeds +4.5 @ 1.94 Manly -4.5 @ 1.96
Play1 : Leeds ML @ 2.58 x 1*
Play 2: Leeds +4.5 @ 1.94 x 1*

Just a quick preview for the World Club Challenge tonight in England, The Leeds Rhinos Face off against the NRL champions for the 5th time in 8 years with them winning twice and losing twice. The game will be played at th famous Headingly Carneige oval which first hosted a Rugby league game in 1890.
The game is a sell out and Leeds will have very strong support which they should be able to turn into points on the board. Manly have opted to travel to England only 6 days before the match and adjusting to the cold of northern England after training all summer in the Aussie sun will be a hard obstacle to overcome .
Two years ago Manly traveled to this game two weeks before the match and played a warm up match as well, That was when Des Hasler was in charge and a lot has changed since then.
This is always a hard match to gauge as the teams have little exposed form , Manly will field a full strength line up , including the Wolfman David Williams who is back after a serious neck injury , whilst Leeds have lost outstanding winger Lee Smith.
Without trying to over analyze the match I am going with Leeds. The value is there in both the Money Line and the Spread markets. There is too much against Manly to take them at the very skinny 1.57 with the traveling and the dramas caused with the departure of Hasler.
Leeds with the the very vocal crowd all the way behind them and the masterful Kevin Sinfield directing traffic around the ground I can see an open affair with quite a few tries scored.

Leeds for me.

[angelo63]

Plays 3 & 4

Season Record 2012
2-0 +2.52 Units

Knights V Dragons
Play 3 is Dragons +4 @ 1.88 @ Pinny for 1*
Play 4: Knights v Dragons Under 3.5 @1.94 @ Pinny for 1*

[angelo63]

Great start to the season with the Dragons winning in Golden Point. There will be a lot of close games this year and lots of money to be made.

Season 4-0 +4.44 units

Play 5
Broncos ML 1.58 x 2*

Good Luck to all

[TBsp75]

great start. wish u a big winnin 2012 nrl.
will b followin.

[benrama]

Good start to the season mate, Dragons +4 were my play too - and I'm a Knights fan true and true. Some good signs for the Knights though, they just looked a little rusty as can be expected in the first game of the season.

Liking the Broncs tonight too, and the under again, the rain will be intermittent all day today.

[kingsr]

What's the knights / dragons under 3.5 @1.94? Is that any team to win by under 3.5 points?

[TBsp75]

What's the knights / dragons under 3.5 @1.94? Is that any team to win by under 3.5 points?

i think it means under 3 trys

[benrama]

Kingsr - it's for both teams to score under 3.5 tries. Under 3.5 point margin would be 4-5:1 type odds I imagine.

[angelo63]

Sorry that was a typo, it was the under 35.5 for the game total, there was some under 36 around but i only managed to get the 35.5

[kingsr]

Sorry that was a typo, it was the under 35.5 for the game total, there was some under 36 around but i only managed to get the 35.5

I thought this was the case! Funny thing is when u first posted your play, you didn't notice the typo, fair enough. But then when you quoted it, to show your winner, you missed it again! LOL

Well done and great start to the season

[angelo63]

Heading to the Raiders v Storm match tomorrow and can not settle on a play, Storm are too short at the ML but they have not lost a season opener since 2001. Raiders are under immense pressure to perform the early games this season. Furner could be replaced by good mate Ricky Stuart if it all goes pear shaped by round 6 . It is a dangerous game to invest on and i will stay out of it and look towards a good bet on the Panthers tom night.

[kingsr]

Correction* Manly

[baskets]

who you like on the Melbourne game, bitches?

[brettels]

Why you talk like a moron, baskets?

[angelo63]

Well i guess if you are a moron you talk like one and its natural...I wont respond to posts like that, I mean we are all here to help each other and dont need someone being an asswipe , bitches? maybe he talks to his wife like that..

[benrama]

baskets is aptly named, I'd ignore him. Over at 32.5 for tonight is tempting now the line has dropped so far - it's been raining all day and the ground will be wet, but it's pretty light rain. Eels are hardly known for their defense, and I think Broncos will be good for at least 20, can the Eels score more than 12 is the question ...

[angelo63]

Play 6

Panthers ML 2.05 x 2*

Season 5-0 + 5.60 Units

Raiders Storm game is very tough to call, Storm unbeaten in the opening round since 2001 and Raiders have been struggling to get of to a good start for quite a few years, Raiders are pumped for this match though and will be a different team from the one that played last season, tempted to take them at the line and Ml but it is the Storm and I would like to see Raiders perform first before i invest on them.

Panthers can only improve with new coach and Gus Gould there now, the team is much the same apart from losing a few quality forwards but Walsh will be kicking and Coote will be catching as he always does, Jennings also looks like he is focused, The bookies have over reacted with the Doggies price and influence Dessie will have therefore giving value to the Panthers. Panthers recent record against the Doggies is impressive winning something like 75% of the meetings over the last decade. I have locked them in already as i missed the 2.20 that was on offer earlier this week.

Cowboys and Titans will be a good game to watch, the price on the Cowboys is too short to take and the Titans need to show something before they can be invested on. Looking forward already to Cowboys v Broncos next Friday night in Brissie.

Going to leave the Warriors and Manly game alone as again no value there and look closely at the Sharks when they travel to Leichardt Oval, The odds of 3.00 look tempting but I will wait for a game day evaluation.

Good Luck to all..

[kingsr]

Your run stops tomorrow with the panthers bet

Panthers club are in shambles. I'd be shocked to see them make a run this year.

I believe Dogs have beaten them in their last 2 outings.

Good luck on this bet.

[baskets]

aboriginals

[angelo63]

The Panthers have won the last 3 matches against the Bulldogs, and 7 out of the last 9 between the two clubs, even more interesting is the average winning margin of 16. There is no way the Dogs should be favourites here at 1.88 , I see them at 1.76 earlier this week. Panthers are still great value at the 2.05. To much hype with the Dessie factor. The Panthers are not a team i think will make the finals , thy are in a rebuilding year, The same goes for the Dogs.

[kingsr]

Yep you're right...too much to drink last night lol. But the Panthers club are in Shambles, apart from the rebuilding, they have big internal problems.

I hope you're wrong here, need my Dogs to start the season well !

[angelo63]

Tolman and Kasiano look very doubtful for the Dogs tonight and the best price for Panthers is now 2.00 and looking like firming even more. Torrential downpour in Canberra, it may or may not stop before the game starts but whatever the case it will be slippery ball conditions. The under is 30.5 atm and still not keen on a play . I know i wont be taking 1.55 on the Storm thats for sure .

[kingsr]

Panthers dont have much in terms of forwards... Petero Civoniceva, Trent Waterhouse, Frank Puletua and Matthew Bell as well as experienced backs Shane Elford and Timana Tahu are all gone from last season.

Kasiano posted on FB this morning that he's very sick so we will see how that pans out.

[angelo63]

Thats why the Have Phil Gould there to rectify everything, Cleary is not a mug coach either, but like the Bulldogs this year is one to rebuild, dont tell me you would not want old boy Gould at the Dogs?

[kingsr]

LOL nahh im happy with Des Hasler and excited to see what he bring to the club. Phil Gould is best siuted for media imo.

[benrama]

I like panthers too Angelo, they are strong at home and with Gordon, Walsh, Jennings et al they still have plenty of quality. Gordon makes their kicking game that much stronger too.

[Spartacuss]

any ideas on nq v gc?

[angelo63]

Looking forward to the Cowboys game , I cant make a play on it as i want to see how the Titans play, They will be improved from last season and Prince can not play as badly as he did last year. The Cowboys i like a lot, if the can win away from Dairy Farmers they will be in this premiership right untill the end. Tonight the bookies might have it right with the line though, anything can happen so i will sit and enjoy it. Not a betting game for me.

[kingsr]

Plenty of quality but not fit enough to go for 80 minutes! Our defense was brilliant to hold em out for so long!

[angelo63]

Season 5-1 +3.6

Panthers had enough completions to win two games, Gordon is out now with a broken Fibula.
Was at the Raiders Storm game today, the conditions were atrocious, torrential rain all day and heavy during the game, Storm were ok but will struggle against big packs and again if on e of the big 3 is out as well. Slater is amazing, he organizes the defense and also his attack is amazing, how he jumped so high to catch that bomb and hold it was worth the 2 hours in the rain...Looking at a play on the Sharks tommorow, but will enjoy watching the Warriors Manly game first .

[kingsr]

Angelo, are you from Canberra? Who do u support?

Melbourne were Melbourne, CLUTCH when it was needed!

[angelo63]

Yep in Canberra, I support the team my money is on ......I have been a Dragons supporter for a while, well since 1975 and i had to wait 31 years for them to win in 2010, My Son started supporting them in 2009 and has already seen a premiership and been to 3 Grand Finals. I was at the 1999 Grand Final and at half time with the Dragons winning 14-0 i rang up Centrebet and backed the Storm at 6-1, there s no place for loyalty when money is involved!!! JT looks rusty at the moment in the Titans game, The CowBoys always come home hard though.

[benrama]

Careful with the Sharks, I was about to jump on them too, getting 6.5 points in the wet. They have a terrible back-line though, and the centre pairing of Best/Pomeroy is one of the most average in the comp. I think the packs are evenly matched, and in Carney sharkies now have a genuine playmaker, but I'm probably going to wait to see them play before putting any money on them. Arguably I should have done that for all the games this round

[angelo63]

Looking at the Warriors Manly game it is hard to make a play, I like the Warriors and am very keen to watch the new emerging superstar Konrad Hurrel play, wisely the Warriors have put him on the bench as he will be up against two of the best in the business in Matai and Lyon. The game should be a cracker but i find no value in either team as 1.65 is too short for the Warriors considering they lost their first 3 last year. The other game is much the same, I liked the Sharks but the weather has improved in Sydney and at the moment it looks like being dry, in the wet the Sharks would have had more of a chance with their pack being robust and tough, the backs are very weak and i would like to see how Carney gets them firing. It will be enjoyable to watch and see what information i can gather for future bets, I like the Tigers next week against Manly an will be focusing on them for that reason.Looking for a play on the Rabbits tommorrow

[angelo63]

27 mins in 16-0 manly , Warriors 4.75 with sportbet and 4.20 on betfair could be worth an in play bet and lay off later.