34 mins in 16-12 Manly , Warriors 2.04 with Betfair and 2.30 with Sportsbet, Time to lay off and take the 2+ units profit and enjoy the game....Not official Plays though..
Half Time: Before the season started the warriors , Broncos, Knights an Cowboys were my picks to win the Flag in that order, Nothing has changed and watching the Warriors who are missing some key forwards i can clearly identify them as the team to beat, they may lose today and another few games early but the class they have is amazing, Johnson, Maloney, Locke and Vatuvei are just some of them and they are backs, Hurrell will be a sensation and Friend the buy of the year...
Lets see how they go in the second half..Manly have too many issues regarding last year and who is going where next year, sure they will start out strong but when the pressure is on i can see it all falling down..
Friend makes 40 tackles a game , is explosive out of dummy half and will make sure the Warriors big forwards are rolling, he is a great 9 who will be working with some wonderful 1, 6 7 players this year unlike what he had last year at the Titans > I want to see Hurrell in full flight now in the 2nd half
What a game.....one lesson learn today is In play betting for the Warrior is a must. They are never out of it and can give away points easily. Manly have suffered some injuries and will be sore after that..Lets see if the Tigers get through today without any injuries, a loss would make the tigers price for next weeks Manly game .. even better.
The NRL is back and its been fantastic so far.
Every game has been close.
Even the Broncos took 60 mins to get over the Eels.
Losing Favs Knights, Cowboys and Warriors and with every game being close there is a clear undertaking that In Play betting is the option here.
A 12 point lead can easily be swallowed up as the Storm,Sea Eagles and Panthers found out and the Tigers were 10 in front.
This competition is so even the value is sitting back and taking some good odds and laying back at the lower price, You just have to be quick with the phone.
I like the Rabbits tomorrow but they started off slowly in the Charity Shield an I think I will sit back and watch the first 20 and even if they are 12 points down I will get on them at hopefully something like 3.50 or above and play it that way. Can not plan too much but it is better than locking in at 1.87 and seeing what happens.
Once the game has started you can see how each team is focused and how their attitude is, you can also see the conditions on the field and what atmosphere the crowd is bringing into the game. The Tigers crowd lifted them to a win they did not deserve, The Warriors crowd brought them back into the game.
The Rabbitohs crowd could do the same on Monday night.
Couldn't agree more, I'd actually be tempted to only make live plays on NRL and AFL if it could be done conveniently online. I do this when I bet EPL soccer, wait for the teams to come out, judge the weather, tempo, etc, and basically get "free" information with the same odds lines as before.
NBA also works well when you have teams down 10-15 or so that you know will come back - books have got sharper with this though this season, much less spots to choose.
Good start to the season so far angelo, I'm laying off souths game as I have no idea where they are at as a team yet, but Monday night football I always look to back the home team.
My majority of bets are on Soccer , mostly Asian Handicap and then NBA and MLB and NFL but my passion is NRL but as for making money on NRL it is the hardest. In play is the way to go, Tennis especially nothing better than greening out your Betfair book and watching the rest of the game with a smile. Judging from the results this week In Play in the early rounds of NRL is safer, The Cowboys are slow starters but they will be fired up to beat the Broncos next week..They may fall a try or two down before JT gets serious but the option is there.
I had a good win on WBA last night and am looking to win again with their rivals Wolves who are at Fulham with a AH of +1.
Just a note on Souths, They are a work in progress, they boast the best pack in the NRL but names don't win you games, They have a very good half in young Reynolds as he has a great kicking game and most importantly he organizes them, something they have lacked or over a decade.
Merrit should be fullback but Maguire must know something by putting Farell there, it could be a smokescreen but the back line looks slick so far. Crocker is a winner and he is also a good organizer and leader, coupled with Super Sam Burgess an Asotasi and Pettybourne thy can run over any pack.
Issac Luke will be missing tom and that's a loss but this game is a local derby and its always an interesting match. Last year Russell Crowe did his famous thumbs down to the fans showing them there is no mercy for the Roosters. The Roosters are my faves for the spoon so a few wins now will get me a better price. They are rebuiling and have some major talent arriving next year with Maloney and SBW on the way and possibly Coote and Darcy Lusick .
I usually call Betfair or Sportsbet, Betfair are quicker but there has to be volume there, once i get a price I put in a lay bet right away. Say i back Souths at 2.90 tonight if it gets out to 10-0 to the Roosters i would at the same time put in a Lay bet on Souths at 1.80 so I will be first in the cue if Souths get back into the match. It is not that easy though and every bet has its own parameters. It sucks we can bet online live in play, My nephew who is 8 was trying to set up a Sportsbet account online yesterday because he wants to bet on the Tigers . He saw the ads on TV and during the games so he wanted to bet....This crap the Government are saying about not allowing in play live betting as it will affect problem gamblers is just that crap. Anyway at the moment we have to call..
Whats everyone thinking for tonight, Souths is pretty juiced up atm ... the O/U is set at 37.5, what do you think ?? I am leaning the over, but just a gut feel, with neither side that great defencively
The weekends results have left the bookies very happy, Tonight's game is a local derby and these tems hate each other so taking short odds is not a good choice. I like Souths this year but will wait in this game and hope to get a live bet , Merritt is out but Inglis is in, Souths may take a week or two to get rolling but when they do they will match it with most teams. Sydney weather atm says a shower is on the way so an over bet is to be treated with caution. sit back and watch teh game and see if any value appear, i will post on here live if i find any Value with Sportsbet or Betfair or even Sportingbet
Hey guys, very new guy here thought I would share my play I know there is a lot of variables that go into handicapping and my reasoning is very basic and could well turn out very wrong. My bookie has the over under set to 36.5. I am taking the over 36.5 based on past stats I had a look through.
Roosters average total match points in 2011 is 38.34
Rabittohs average total match points in 2011 is 44.25
In the last 2 years that both teams have faced each other (4 times) the average total match points is 47 and only one game out of those 4 games was under 36.5
Like I said I only used very basic info and if please let us know what other stats you blokes would look at before you make and O/U play as I would like to become at least semi competent with this.
BOL guys
Last edited by snufflyjoe; 03-05-12 at 12:03 AM.
Reason: 2010 changed to 2011
The matches between these two are usually high scoring , as snuffly joe has shown, I'm not sure about the weather and both sets of backs are not the greatest point scoring machines around, the other is the weather as a storm is coming . I am not betting on the over under but wishing you guys good luck. Anasta is out as well as Merritt.
Over is the right call too IMO. Weather is a cracker here in sydney today. Roosters trial games went for 44 and 52 points. Souths went under in their trials but played Saints and Warriors - I think the roosters trial games (as much as you can rely on trials) are more indicative.
Stats mean little at this point in the season and you have to keep it simple like you have and use 2011 as an imperfect guide - but what I might look at as time goes on are:
Errors
Missed tackes
Metres allowed
Set completion %
Line breaks
As well as of course points allowed.
Also it's good too see how teams play against the top 4 ranked defenses, bottom 4 and "the rest" (ranked by points allowed is good enough for first proxy) as this helps with outliers. Flogging the titans by 30 but being held by st George scoreless can skew numbers.
I'm tracking a lot of this in a spreadsheet this year so will be happy to share it if it proves useful.
Great Ben , I checked the radar and rain wont get there until late, but after all the rain in Canberra and going to the raiders game and watching a high scoring match it is a little scary to predict anything .
I am dissapointed Anasta is out as i thought Souths had more of a chance with him playing against them, Merrit is a huge loss, but Inglis is a great plus. I love Monday Night Football as it gives us more time to analyze and also it makes the contests closer.
In Play for me tonight.... A early try to the Roosters would be lovely... even two....
Back to Square 1 . Souths look good , Physical and Organized, maybe a little over enthusiastic, roosters look stunned and battered by a bigger team but they have Pearce creating chance , they should not win this. Every game is so close this weekend I have a face book page called The Golden Point and already two games , the draw option bet on games this season may be an option.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Reply With Quote
