[KVB]

SEC

The sharp forecast has Alabama beating South Carolina 69-66. The public gauge says South Carolina wins 64-61.

The Total has opened lower than the numbers but has moved towards them.

There’s a moneyline split here and the spread has moved away from the numbers. There is considerable pressure from the unsuspecting public on South Carolina from a couple of angles. Further, SC bettors from these angles have been emboldened by recent success.

Analysts can see this and will want to fade those decision makers. I think now could be the time. The fact that the forecast calls for Bama doesn’t help in this instance but I’m not going to pass up the shot with Alabama +4.5 (-105) over South Carolina.

If you can get +5, it would be that much better. Groups of bettors are battling here and a 3, 4 or 5 point game is not out of the cards.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

It might be difficult to get both Marshall plus the points and Bama plus the points. It's not arbitrary when I chose one over the other, the decision follows repeatable metrics, but it's a close one.

Gamblers should take both.

[KVB]

Atl 10

The sharp forecast has VCU beating George Mason 72-68. The public gauge says VCU wins 78-72.

The line opened at -7.5, above both lines and has moved away from the forecast significantly. The reason it has opened above and has moved so much is, quite frankly, because the answer is VCU. They win the game and cover the opener. Significant market moving money knows this, and has spoken. I knew it before the line move and the move makes sense. Not going into all of it here, but it’s just the way it is.

The market made it very tough to buy VCU at -10.5 for a reason. I’m posting this a few hours before game time with information still to be processed, but I don’t think it will change my position.

The Total opened closer to my forecast between the forecast and gauge but has settled on my forecast for now at 140. The books need that tighter total; it seems, oddly enough, that the books want anyone analyzing this game to pass.

At the same time, they know anyone looking for G Mason will gladly buy at these levels, and there are plenty of takers.

[KVB]

Big 10

The sharp forecast says Wisconsin beats Indiana 72-71. The public gauge has Wisky winning 72-69.

I’m actually pleased that Indiana is shown to play close in the game, even closer that the line of -5. I think Indiana pulled through for a number of bettors yesterday and did it with authority not only because of yesterday’s environment, but also to lead into today.

A closed door in the form of settlement one day can open a door for another day’s process. It’s an ongoing nightmarish mess of rotation orders that relentlessly attack the bettors.

The total opened a little low and hasn’t climbed much. I would expect it to climb but the books may be holding back. I’m not taking the total in the trading account.

Anyway, there is all kinds of support for Indiana and while much of it is warranted I think it’s overboard and have picked up Wisconsin -5 (-105) over Indiana.

If you live by Indiana, you may die by Indiana.

[KVB]

I'm pulling the trigger on plays that are still hours away. This can be risky when analyzing the markets as I am neglecting information yet to come in and things can change.

I will be out when these games start and that's why I'm posting them so early. You can see the forecast, compare what I have and write to your own work with a little more time than crazy yesterday.

Because of the timing, I may not be able to analyze the lines as well close to game time but at least the forecast will be out there.

Obviously writing with less information makes the process more speculative but it's the in inevitable sudden market changes that are the real problem.

[KVB]

Conf USA

The sharp forecast says Louis Tech beats Marshall 83-71. The public gauge say Louis Tech wins 87-82...
...Metrics are split a bit on whether or not to take the underdog here. It forces me to pass in the trading account but getting the hungry underdog seeking analyst to pass is usually just what the market orders when it pays the underdog.

It might be difficult to get both Marshall plus the points and Bama plus the points. It's not arbitrary when I chose one over the other, the decision follows repeatable metrics, but it's a close one.

Gamblers should take both...

Marshall with a commanding lead toward halftime as the Alabama game tips off.

Let’s not kid ourselves; Marshall could be in real trouble in the second half and you know I liked Marshall before game time. I took Louisiana Tech -5.5 (-110) over Marshall for the 2^nd half.

I think it showed patience to pass on Marshall and wait for Bama. I guess we’ll see.

Louisana Tech winning the half by 5 points would represent a slap in the face for disrespecting this system and trying to outsmart not what they bring, but how they bring it.

[KVB]

The second half line is already at -6 in that Conf USA game.

[KVB]

Big East

The sharp forecast has Villanova beating Seton Hall 79-62. The public gauge shows Nova winning 76-65.

The public gauge is at the offered line but the forecast, along with the public, are seeking Nova. I’m surprised we haven’t seen this line move higher but we are two and a half hours from game time. That last hour will either show the books break and move, or not.

Both numbers show a 141 point game. This total opened lower at 137.5 and has dropped. This total, while appearing to show value on the OVER for the long term is probably best as a pass in the near term.

This is another day of two games for this conference. Let’s let game one go by and we’ll see what develops for the next game.

[KVB]

It might be difficult to get both Marshall plus the points and Bama plus the points...

If Marshall holds then Alabama, who is winning, may be in trouble. I may have this one backwards in the end.

[KVB]

AAC

The sharp forecast has Cincinnati beating Tulsa 74-59. The public gauge says Cinci wins 72-58.

Right in line with the numbers, the open was Cinci -13.5 and it has moved towards the numbers. The Total opened lower and ticked away from the forecast. I can see money split here with the Total but would expect to see that line come back up, but perhaps not much.

The forecast appears well sidelined here in a game where some strong metrics indicate the underdog. With such a big such a big line that underdog looks a bit easy in this environment. The public has tested the line with the Cinci buying and with the -13 and -17 point lines failing to cover their spreads in this conference so far, only Cincinnati remains to cover a big spread. That is if there is going to be give and take. Notice how give and take can occur some forms of line analysis...the info is overwhelming.

The money is split for both spread and total bets and could go either way. I think knowing where the chips fall here will help us in examining the late game in the Big East.

If you’ve been following along, can you figure out why that could be the case? I’ve hidden some gems in these writings for sure.

[KVB]

SEC

The sharp forecast shows Vanderbilt beating Florida 73-65. The public gauge has Florida winning 72-65.

The Total numbers are in agreement and the line has moved towards them.

The public gauge is with the market but the forecast predicts the upset. The pressure for Vandy to fail is high and there are other metrics pointing to Florida. To get you into my thinking, I think the market is using strong metrics to point to an upset in the later SEC game. The Bama upset and this later game will draw that sophisticated money away from Vandy and make it more difficult to hit a parlay.

I don’t have to be right here but if I am, it doesn’t mean we have a bet as well in the last SEC game. Things change and there is a lot of time and information to gain until then. Further, right or wrong, I am introducing more and more market behavior mechanics to whoever is reading. That is if anyone is still reading.

Even though it’s early, I’m taking Vanderbilt +5.5 (-105) and +211 over Florida. It’s already come down from the +6.5 opener and that works well against me here in the trading account.

Good Luck.

[smokenjoke]

I is reading.
Good luck

[KVB]

I is reading.
Good luck

[KVB]

ACC

The sharp forecast has North Carolina winning 76-64. The public gauge says NC wins 80-77.

Of course, it’s a tournament and it’s Duke, it has to be close, right? Not so fast. That line opened at the gauge and has moved towards my line; the same with the Total.

Sure there’s pressure on NC from the forecast and this line looks like it should go higher. Actually, getting to -4.5 is a pretty big move for this game in particular. But my point is that the line is being held back because Duke bettors are looking less at the spread and more at the upset itself.

Moving the Total down to 154 may have been necessary given the forecast but you can also see it as giving the public a better opportunity to pick up the OVER in this game.

They want a good game and are betting accordingly. I think it stays Under, with the forecast, but the metrics are split and it’s the first game of two in this conference tonight. I have nothing strong enough to warrant the risk.

[KVB]

Big 12

The sharp forecast shows Iowa St. beating TCU 76-71. The public gauge shows Iowa St. winning 77-72.

The line opened at -3 and is now -4.5. The Total moved away from the lines but we can see from recent spread performance and yesterday’s behavior in these situations that the UNDER is getting plenty of pressure from bettors in search of a settlement. This is why, despite obvious public pressure on the OVER, that the Total dropped.

I don’t like the way this conference has stacked the money and think if anything the forecasts should be followed here, but that line is tight. I’m passing in the trading account.

I think it is indeed Iowa St. but the line is tight and seeing where the chips fall will help us examine a bet in the AAC. In very much a similar way to the Big East game I mentioned earlier…when I asked if anyone could figure out why?

The market is stacking and steering money at this point. In the end, what is happening is an increase in reasons to make bets and an increase in volume on all sides of all games.

[omedo]

i'm trying to guess or "figure it out" but its hard for me because i dont follow those markets.
But i'm still reading and rereading. I know that eventually all will make sense.

Still brainstorming that " its not what they bring, but how they bring it".

Keep it up with the "madness"!

[KVB]

Atl 10

The sharp forecast has George Washington beating Richmond 73-67. The public gauge says Richmond wins 73-70.

The line opened low at Richmond -1.5 but has moved away from my line. There’s pressure on Richmond but I don’t think the volume is that great overall. I know I insisted VCU gets the win over G Mason but that game looks close in the second. The favorite could still come and the even if we know, this game is still a pass for the trading account.

Some metrics show how it should be GW, but…Add those to the forecast and it gets interesting, but there is no real settlement there. I could see GW losing this game and even the spread in the end.

The total opened close to the gauge and showed a slight tick towards my line despite the appearance of a lot of Over bets. There could be a move before tipoff.

[KVB]

i'm trying to guess or "figure it out" but its hard for me because i dont follow those markets.
But i'm still reading and rereading. I know that eventually all will make sense.

Still brainstorming that " its not what they bring, but how they bring it".

Keep it up with the "madness"!

[KVB]

Big 10

The sharp forecast shows Northwestern beating Maryland 69-66. The public gauge shows Maryland winning 68-67.

We have a split in the moneylines and the lines are with the gauge. The forecast is calling for the upset. I don’t think that it will pay but am not willing to join the favorite backers to find out. The Total opened at 133.5 and has moved towards the forecast.

We still have an hour to make a decision here but I may be stepping away around that time. I need to get these forecasts posted in the meantime. One thing I don’t want to do here is force plays and become rushed.

[KVB]

Big East

The sharp forecast shows Creighton between Xavier 72-71. The public gauge shows Creighton winning 78-73.

Creighton -2.5 has grown to -4.5, against my line. The public likes Creighton and there are reasons to counter Xavier. With Nova flirting with an upset those who saw the give and take on Wednesday may be getting directed toward the favorite as well. This may explain the movement on Creighton. Moving so much against the line to past -4 points sure does increase the long term value of Xavier.

Sharps know it but value doesn’t always win. I’m passing here for now. I don’t want to force a Xavier trade with the balance I am seeing.

The Total opened much closer to the gauge and of course has gone towards my lower line. It seems value abounds in the game and that increases action for sure. Nice job books.

When the market entices, sometimes it’s best to sit on the sidelines.

[KVB]

Pac 12

The sharp forecast shows Oregon beating Cal 73-63. The public gauge shows Oregon winning 69-60.

The line opened with numbers at -9, dropped to 8, then back to 9. The line feels sharp and the numbers feel sharp. In some metrics Oregon should fail against the spread and they just might.

The Total opened very low at 125 and has gone upward towards the forecast and gauge to 127. There are not a lot of factors influencing this total and the line should climb higher. They are keeping it low, despite moving it and I think it will go even higher. This slow move is a little suspicious and with no clear path by the books it could go either way.

One thing to notice is that the forecast is 6-2 against the moneylines so far in the Pac 12.. The two losses were smaller lines (Stan -3.5 moved to -5 and Utah -2 moved to -3.5).

Perhaps the Pac 12, which survived and upset scare with UCLA and USC last night, is set for an upset; but don’t count on the markets being so generous with such a tight line.

It’s the first game tonight in the Pac 12, things have been pretty split in this conference and I am passing for the trading account.

[KVB]

AAC

The sharp forecast shows Houston beating UConn 67-66. The public gauge says Houston wins 69-63.

The Total opened lower than both lines and has moved toward them.

The line opened between these numbers at 4 points. It has moved away from the forecast slightly. There is pressure being driven to Houston but it is being countered by Uconn money that was present before the games tipped off today.

...The sharp forecast shows Iowa St. beating TCU 76-71. The public gauge shows Iowa St. winning 77-72...

...I think it is indeed Iowa St. but the line is tight and seeing where the chips fall will help us examine a bet in the AAC...

The market left no mystery in that TCU Iowa State game. When you are looking for a result and are handed it on a platter, be very careful where that result leads.

Because of the lack of ambiguity in that Big 12 game, I am going to pass on UConn vs. Houston and just say that it should be Houston, but…

And it really should be Houston. If you can, watch this game, especially the end. Someone is getting screwed.

[KVB]

SEC

The sharp forecast shows Arkansas winning 80-74. The public gauge says Arkansas wins 83-78.

This line opened –4 and moved toward my forecast. The Total opened at 161.5, basically the gauge, and has moved down toward my line.

How many times have I said “…and has moved toward my forecast...” today? It’s been quite a few.

Vandy got the best of Florida, as anticipated, but that doesn’t give us a play here. I suspect that Arkansas pulls it out but I am not going to dive into this loaded game on the heels of such a great market read in this conference. Let’s not be the guys who win bets just to give them back at the end of the night.

If you read the posts, this conference has offered a true earn while you learn experience.

[KVB]

ACC

The sharp forecast has Notre Dame beating Florida St. 71-70. The public gauge says Dame wins 77-76.

The line opened at Florida State -2.5 and has dropped towards both numbers above to Florida St. -1.5. The total also opened between the numbers and moved toward the higher public gauge.

There have been many totals with great value today, even after the moves, but with all the posting it’s hard to concentrate on trading them. I have mostly just offered information.

I think this line begs for the upset and that’s probably why it won’t occur. Even though it looks like Duke will kill the forecasted NC moneyline, I just don’t see another forecasted upset paying tonight. Further, I can identify desperate Dame money trying to get paid.

It’s just too much being driven towards Notre Dame and metrics sending money to Florida have easily been overshadowed. That line should have crossed to Notre Dame being favored. I believe it is being kept where it is intentionally to gather more Dame bets. I think a position is being taken and I took one myself with Florida St. -118 over Notre Dame.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Big 12

The sharp forecast has West Virginia beating Kansas State 71-63. The public gauge says WV wins 75-69.

Both lines have moved away from my line by a half point. I have no trading account play here and I think the game has tipped.

[KVB]

...The reason it has opened above and has moved so much is, quite frankly, because the answer is VCU. They win the game and cover the opener. Significant market moving money knows this, and has spoken. I knew it before the line move and the move makes sense. Not going into all of it here, but it’s just the way it is.

The market made it very tough to buy VCU at -10.5 for a reason...

There has been some good analysis today, most of it spot on, some off a bit. VCU won this game by 11 points. Covering the opener and the move to close.

It might have seemed close, but G Mason had no chance.

[KVB]

...I believe the market bettors seek the Michigan underdog and Minnesota as a favorite in what would a 2 pick parlay with market moving money....
...Expect this game to be ambiguous until late...

Another good piece of analysis with market principles being applied. Believe me, many sharp bettors and market analysts made money with that two pick parlay.

It's also a great example of how things are brought. I anticipated the close game and ambiguous ending, and we get OT.

It comes down to understanding what's happening in the market (what they bring) with how the market and games try to hide and reveal the final moneyflow structure.

[KVB]

Pac 12

The sharp forecast has UCLA beating Arizona 76-74. The public gauge says UCLA wins 80-79.

The line opened at UCLA -2.5 and went to -2. As usual, the total opened at the public gauge and moved toward my line.

...The sharp forecast shows Oregon beating Cal 73-63. The public gauge shows Oregon winning 69-60...

...One thing to notice is that the forecast is 6-2 against the moneylines so far in the Pac 12.. The two losses were smaller lines (Stan -3.5 moved to -5 and Utah -2 moved to -3.5).

Perhaps the Pac 12, which survived and upset scare with UCLA and USC last night, is set for an upset; but don’t count on the markets being so generous with such a tight line...

Cal is playing Oregon close and it is something to watch. Truthfully though, this UCLA vs. Arizona game is pretty split as well. The first game will steer some money, and maybe it has as it shows the underdog playing tight by halftime, but I don’t see many other factors in the NCAA Basketball markets contributing to money flow and there is plenty of time for Oregon to handle the business.

For now it’s a pass and will probably remain a pass. If Oregon wins and even covers, there will be money heading towards Arizona. The problem is that it’s not trap money or settlement money, it’s just some money.

The conference final may reveal a little more about the direction here and, remember, it doesn’t end there. There will be Pac 12 teams in the NCAA tournament and I will be following that as well.

[KVB]

I sure wish I were able to post more about totals. In countering the forecast for the final score in the Pac 12 game I have picked up OVER 84 (-110) for UCLA vs. Arizona.

This line is moving up as I type.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Here are the forecast results using only a half point discrepancy with the market through Friday…

Against the Spread:
Open: 39-41 (48.75%), Close 42-42 (50%)

Against the Moneyline:
Overall 55-27 (67.07%), predicting favorites 46-21 (68.66%), predicting upsets 8-6 (57.14%), when predicting the upset but the line moves to predicting the favorite 1-0 (Tenn vs. Georgia)

Against the TOTALS:
Open: 50-33 (60.24%), Close 50-36 (58.14%)

The forecast predicting upsets at 57% is pretty high means profit for sure.

Remember, I am using only a half point discrepancy against the market here. For example, when Cinci opened at -13.5 over Tulsa the forecast predicted Cinci to cover with a 15 point win. When the line moved to -15.5, the forecast predicted Tulsa to cover.

Cinci covered and the forecast was successful against the opener, but failed against the closer.

[KVB]

Here are the results of the plays I've put in bold and the trades I've made during this tourney time with links to the original post...

				1 Unit
Record	Date	Play	Result	Per Bet
1-0	7-Mar	Pitt -149 over GTech	W	0.67
2-0	8-Mar	Oregon St. +15 (-110) over Cal	W	0.91
3-0		Oregon St. +14.5 (-110) over Cal	W	0.91
3-1		FAU +6.5 (-105) over Marshall	L	-1
3-2		FAU +7 (-110) over Marshall	L	-1
3-3		UNDER 154 (-108) Mizzou vs Auburn	L	-1
4-3		Wash + 12.5 (-105) over USC	W	0.95
4-4	9-Mar	Louisville -137 over Duke	L	-1
4-5		Louisville -1 (-129) over Duke	L	-1
4-6		Penn St. +6 (-105) over Mich St.	L	-1
5-6		TCU +8.5 (-105) over Kansas	W	0.95
5-7		Rice -121 over UTEP	L	-1
6-7		Indiana -2.5 (-105) over Iowa	W	0.95
7-7		St. Louis +9.5 (-105) over GW	W	0.95
7-8		St. Louis +413 over GW	L	-1
7-9		Rutgers +8.5 (-105) over N'Western	L	-1
7-10		Rutgers +352 over N'Western	L	-1
8-10		Marshall +5 (+100) over ODU	W	1
9-10		Marshall +206 over ODU	W	2.06
10-10	10-Mar	Kentucky -10.5 (-105) over Georgia	W	0.95
11-10		Alabama +4.5 (-105) over S Carolina	W	0.95
12-10		Wisconsin -5 (-105) over Indiana	W	0.95
12-11		La Tech -5.5 (-110) 2nd over Marshall	L	-1
13-11		Vandy +5.5 (-105) over Florida	W	0.95
14-11		Vandy +211 over Florida	W	2.11
14-12		Florida St. -118 over ND	L	-1
15-12		OVER 84 (-110) 2nd UCLA vs. Zona	W	0.91
15-12		TOTALS		4.17

I realize the record matters less because there are moneylines included but I put it there anyway.

[KVB]

Big 10

The sharp forecast has Michigan beating Minnesota 74-66. The public gauge says Michigan wins 72-70.

The line opened at -3 and we’ve seen the move towards my line. The Total opened lower than the numbers and moved away from them.

Not sure about this total line and I don’t say that often. I think there is a bit of reaction occurring because, for the most part, totals have been pretty high in the market. The line has moved away, it will probably be UNDER because of the open but it’s a clear pass.

In fact, this game is pretty split and really just a gamble from an analyst perspective. After paying that two pick parlay of Michigan and Minnesota the books will get some back on this game. It’s a pass for sure.

One thing to note, the forecast was 3-0 against the moneyline in this conference yesterday, the fourth game was forecasted a tie but Minnesota had the edge in the raw score.

This conference has seen a lot of forecast moneyline success and that could bode well for Minnesota today.

[KVB]

Atl 10

The sharp forecast has Rhode Island beating Davidson 73-64. The public gauge says RI wins 72-68.

The line opened at -3 and moved toward my line to the gauge. The Total opened between the numbers this time, and did move down towards my line. It then moved past my line. This isn’t an adjustment to a general market, this is action on the Under by certain groups. The book is protecting from them a bit as they will be looking for an Under today. The public seeks the OVER and the books have increased their appetite in for a number of reasons…including a recent string of Unders and the line movement in regards to the public gauge.

I like the Under here but am passing in this first game. Patience is needed today as many conferences are back to 2 games and money will flow.

As far as the spread and total, a Davidson upset would be interesting and, gun to my head, I think the underdog and Under.

But no trading this game for now.

[KVB]

SEC

The sharp forecast has Kentucky beating Bama 68-63. The public gauge says Kentucky 76-67.

The line opened higher than both lines and hasn’t moved at -10.5. The line is a little high because there is pressure on Kentucky, not just from usual public bets, but from other, more sophisticated metrics.

The way it stands, this situation is actually what helps create upsets. Combine this with a lower line, and you have yourself an upset in the making. It doesn’t always happen, but it is a good recipe. Otherwise, a Kentucky blowout gives a settlement and emboldens bettors to the process, setting them up for an upset another day.

First game, higher line, I’m tempted to pass here. I’m can’t help but think that because the upset signals are glaring as I look at more metrics, it’s a morning trap.

One other thing to add to what is already on the table, in 9 of the last 10 games and the last 8 games in a row my forecast has been correct against the moneyline in this conference.

It’s tough to pass up at this point and I’ve taken Alabama +10.5 (-105) and +543 over Kentucky. There will be pressure the market isn’t showing, and if we miss this one, we’ll get them next time.

The total is higher and has moved towards my forecast and the gauge. It should go OVER, but….

Good Luck.

[KVB]