[KVB]

The morning is going exactly as I expected, I have predictions.

It's like I "just know" it's Wisconsin. We've all "just known" it's a team and then it was. And of course we've all "just known" it was a team and been killed.

I'm a bettor, I can relate. But I've learned over time that when seasoned, proven, and trusted metrics tell us to pass for sure, we should pass.

This is because when you follow the money you can never forget it's leading you somewhere. Our biggest advantage over the Books is that we can pass, they have to play nearly all the games.

[KVB]

Imagine that, VCU keeping the market guessing as long as they can.

Will they fuk up my plan? Will we see OT?

[KVB]

...Mapping today is difficult but today’s start to the first two games, including the RI fast start and just now as I write VCU already coming as close as they have (I think it is a fake comeback) more of this organization is confirmed...

VCU came back within a possession of tying and now losing it in the last seconds.

SEC

The sharp forecast shows Kentucky beating Arkansas 72-71. The public gauge says Kentucky wins 85-78...

It looks like it could be Kentucky here based on speculation of the days flow of money from metrics I am looking at.

Unfortunately, this day has a few games and that speculation doesn’t have to be right. Again, I am passing here for now but may consider a Kentucky play before tip...

You see, I had already anticipated how the market would bring the day based on what the market would bring today.

The RI gameflow and Kentucky blowout are on point. Is it Wisky next? Then Cinci?

Things look so good right now that failure must come somewhere. Let’s see if Kentucky misleads us and gives up the cover.

[KVB]

Have you ever noticed how right before game time other games that seemed one way are much closer, if only to the spread?

Ever noticed how the early NFL games seem one way, and often decided, and then right before the afternoon tip it seems most of the games are within a possession of at least the spread.

Now you know why. Call it parity, but it's not in the way most people think.

Kentucky's lead over the spread is gone, it's a 9 point lead and anyone's cover with 1:30 left. Another fake comeback?

Can you see why I haven't traded yet?

[smokenjoke]

capping contest smokenjoke?
loser leaves the world forever ?
Scared ?

That's some bs lockjaw but I'm down poo/see.

[KVB]

...Kentucky's lead over the spread is gone, it's a 9 point lead and anyone's cover with 1:30 left. Another fake comeback?...

They got it to 8 points, but now they are falling apart, flagrant fouls, drama being played out.

If you've read up to now, I think you know what really happened.
This is where I bring you back to Plato's parable of the cave.

[KVB]

Kentucky doubled their lead in the last minute. Now look at the pressure on the Wisconsin line right now.

[KVB]

Up, up, and away!!!!! We've seen -1.5 turn to -2.5 right before our very eyes?

Lkid once brought up the idea of how some of us are playing chess in a game where everyone else is playing checkers.

[KVB]

...Lkid once brought up the idea of how some of us are playing chess in a game where everyone else is playing checkers.

...I'm a bettor, I can relate. But I've learned over time that when seasoned, proven, and trusted metrics tell us to pass for sure, we should pass.

This is because when you follow the money you can never forget it's leading you somewhere...

See Olmedo, from a conversation long ago via PM, it is us versus the books in so many ways, but often times it becomes us versus each other in the form of anticipating line movements.

The market was created that way and even if Michigan takes down all the steered money in a "should be Wisky, but..." situation, over the long haul the stronger bettors who beat the lines take from the weak.

[KVB]

In my opinion and map, if Michigan takes down the money, then Cinci has no chance.

Right now, early, both Michigan and SMU are getting leads.

That's too perfect, too soon, in a day that's gone as planned so far. Something may change here.

To get some of the idea behind the sharks circling, if I had countered with Michigan, I would have SMU and be looking great now. We've all been there, up a bunch early, and with that kind of read and the current scores, and the play from early today, the sharks would be out circling...

[KVB]

...The RI gameflow and Kentucky blowout are on point. Is it Wisky next? Then Cinci...

In my opinion and map, if Michigan takes down the money, then Cinci has no chance...

Now we snap back and realize that if Wisky covers then 3 of the four parlay plays in my map will have come, including the speculation on how they played, pending Cinci.

So now you see how in the end how Cinci may really haven no chance at all.

I considered this before the games began and almost made a RI, Kentucky, MI and SMU 4 pick.

The parlay killer identified as Michigan had to be a pass. So I just decided to walk the thread through the process.

Imagine what a typical day of analyzing sports looks like in my office.

[smokenjoke]

BOL today Kevin. Keep it up
SMU all the way & all in!!!

[KVB]

If you read above you'll realize that I am concluding that it's not Cinci who comes back, it's Wisky.

Can Wisky pull one out for the money and public that flocked to them?

Or was the market too smart for it's own good when flocking?

Perhaps there's a second half bet ahead.

[KVB]

BOL today Kevin. Keep it up
SMU all the way & all in!!!

You got this.

[KVB]

The market is so organized I wouldn't be surprised to see Cinci close the gap right before half, just to keep the Big 10 halftime bettors on their toes.

[KVB]

...So now you see how in the end how Cinci may really haven no chance at all...

End of half gap close or not, Cinci is going to have their hands full. I think it plays to the blowout to demoralize because of what I wrote above but I could also see a close, controversial SMU cover, just to remind some participants who's in charge.

[KVB]

Speaking of controversial, I can't wait to see how Michigan and Wisky end; expect theatrics.

It will play out like it should have been the pass it was.

[KVB]

My 8 year old just walked in and said "Your momma's so fat even Dora couldn't explore her."



I'm raising a monster.

[PittsburghPlayer]

See Olmedo, from a conversation long ago via PM, it is us versus the books in so many ways, but often times it becomes us versus each other in the form of anticipating line movements.The market was created that way and even if Michigan takes down all the steered money in a "should be Wisky, but..." situation, over the long haul the stronger bettors who beat the lines take from the weak.

Good analysis.

[KVB]

So there you have it. You saw money get steered to Wisconsin, before it got there, and you saw it get taken down. Sure, the contrarian in me should have been screaming Michigan, but the market has a way of getting me to look over my shoulder all the time and when it says pass, we pass.

Michigan held and of course Cinci never had a chance. I won’t even get into the final scores and the “coincidence.”

...I considered this before the games began and almost made a RI, Kentucky, MI and SMU 4 pick...

I had the money flow right for Sunday and as things looked as expected, I just kept trying to “analyze” the market to find the fail. First Wisky, then Cincy but the moneyflow paid.

Make no mistake, there is still balance. One of the points of the today’s structure was to steer money and take it down. While Michigan went on to help complete the 4 pick, plenty of the market acted on Wisky and lost.

Think about it, many of those same guys who followed the steam to an easy Arizona win last night gave it back with a Wisconsin bet today.

Further, the weight volume and steering of this upset was enough to make it the only underdog of the day, offset by favorites everywhere, even including the games I didn’t write about.

The give and take never ends.

[KVB]

...I won’t even get into the final scores and the “coincidence.”...

Well, except to say that both lines closed at 127 and both games ended 71-56.

The market was afraid to settle these any further but not afraid to let you know that they weren't settling, a little reminder not to disrespect the marketplace.

Like I said before, totals can be fascinating. Also like I said, the market will pull out all the stops today.

They hold no quarter.

[KVB]

So much more to say but I have to move on. I’ve included different things in so many posts but one thing I’ve tried to do is be consistent with explaining why the line has opened where it has and moved to where it’s moved. I think that is essential to long term success.

If it hasn’t been a flat out inconsistency where my line explains the movement I’ve tried to explain why it’s moved like it has. It was the same for openers and with the totals.

I’ve also explained the latter movement. For the tourney, unfortunately, it will be a bit like it has been. Write ups are coming out real time and a lot of these big early moves will be missed for the thread. I’ll try do get in what I can before limits get raised, but the reality is that there is a ton of work to do and I have to secure my positions and get my conclusions reached as a priority.

I have work to do and information to process before I can get to write-ups. I’ll get forecasts out when I can and all will come prior to tip, but it’s a mountain of work and going to be a blitz.

Once I get my line and positions I will be able to add more dynamic analysis to trade. Until then it’s back to the salt mines.

[smokenjoke]

Fck Fidel's at¿ p&ssy

[omedo]

Ok, so we have this game - FA Cup game on England - Chelsea vs Manchester United.
The game is decided on two legs, this is the first leg.

The AH -0,5 for Chelsea opened at +115 but as news come out that the top scorer of Man United not playing, the odds came down as low as -137.

But now, as more news as the other scorers are out for Man United the odds for Chelsea are -118. Wich makes no sense at all.

Regarding the total, he opened at 2,25 @ -109. As the news came out the total came to plus odds at +116 but now is going in the oposite direction staying right now at -104.

Every where you turn you see every one is on Chelsea, and thinks that Manchester United wont score. But something is smelly.

Regarding the teams:
Chelsea has the Best offense of the league by far and a top defense playing home.
Man United has an medium offense with those players, without them probably the worst offense, but has an top defense playing away.

Someone has a guess about this game ?

KVB, can you analyse the market for this game with this information?

[KVB]

In general forecasts "work" best when good teams are playing and key players are healthy.

That said to analyze the market means to look at the whole environment of the here and now while considering the past based forecasts.

Where is the sharp money? The public money? Why did it open where it did? Did it open high or low from where it "should have."?

Is money flowing? Is it settling? What about recent ATS records. Usually they are misused by the public in a case where we all have the info, but it's how we use it.

Which directions are the teams heading compared to the league?

Because of the timing when I wrote the basketball tourneys I was mostly able to include movement that happened and talk about it.

That’s not what I do. I actually plan for the movement ahead of time. Like when I walked us through yesterday. The forecast is part of the plan, but if it doesn’t move my way, I usually know why ahead of time. Of course, injuries come up so you never know.

To just look at movement and decipher what’s happening is very difficult. Maybe some of this movement was happening anyway, maybe some is overreaction. I think it is overreactions getting normalized, but that’s pretty generic without more information.

Sometimes the books just move lines to generate action. Maybe with players sitting larger money is on the sidelines and they are just trying to get “punters” to bite.

Turn it up for this one...

[omedo]

Ok, this is sometihing that i can work with.

In general forecasts "work" best when good teams are playing and key players are healthy.

Ok, i get that, but we can see our forecast and take an clue about some absences right?
In this case my forecast would give the away team on the best possible scenario 1 goal with the best ofense.
The ofense was all out. Cant i make some assumptions here or is best to pass cuz of the unknown?

That said to analyze the market means to look at the whole environment of the here and now while considering the past based forecasts.

I lack past forecasts at this moment.

Where is the sharp money? The public money? Why did it open where it did? Did it open high or low from where it "should have."?

I dont know where the sharp money is, this is my question.
The public money is on the Favorite/home team.
I dont know how to make an "Vegas line" yet. It seems that allmost the total of the line is based on the relative position in classification and home/away condiction. And it doesnt difer so much from league to league or year to year.
It opened where it should be, didnt surprise anyone but reacted severely by the news of the ofense of the away team being out.

Is money flowing? Is it settling? What about recent ATS records. Usually they are misused by the public in a case where we all have the info, but it's how we use it.

Money is flowing allright. I mean, i know money is being betted heavely cuz is an game on England and they sure love to bet and i assume that closer to the game time, more "square money" is going somewhere. But i also assume that sharp money is in play too.

Isnt setling cuz the odds are all over the place and isnt an comon situation.

I dont know about the ATS scores. In soccer i think people are more focused in the Money line.
If the line is low, they tend to parlay with other "sures" heavy favorites. But this is not the case.

Which directions are the teams heading compared to the league?

One is steady on the first position and the other is improving but not going anywhere.

Because of the timing when I wrote the basketball tourneys I was mostly able to include movement that happened and talk about it.

That’s not what I do. I actually plan for the movement ahead of time. Like when I walked us through yesterday. The forecast is part of the plan, but if it doesn’t move my way, I usually know why ahead of time. Of course, injuries come up so you never know.

To just look at movement and decipher what’s happening is very difficult. Maybe some of this movement was happening anyway, maybe some is overreaction. I think it is overreactions getting normalized, but that’s pretty generic without more information.

Sometimes the books just move lines to generate action. Maybe with players sitting larger money is on the sidelines and they are just trying to get “punters” to bite.

Yeah i know that. But i was expecting the line to setled on -130 or around that number.
I was expecting the total to setled on the 2,25 number.

But that didnt happen at all. I know that there was late news, around the time of the crazy line movement, that some youngster striker for the away team was ready to play. Before he was with some illness and not fit for play.

I totaly didnt expect that line movement. thoughts ?

[KVB]

It's tough with all the injury information and players, late info, etc. I rarely even discuss the players. That's why it has to be approached from other angles at that point. If a result needs to come, the players won't matter, they are all professionals. Now when a lot of players are out at once, it is a different story.

But sometimes a pass is just the best way to go.

When I mention ATS records I also mean results against the moneyline, totals, and the spreads. Are some streaking and some give and take? There's a market for them all. Soccer it seems like it matters less, but pricing is different and long term money knows it.

When I ask if money is settling, I don't mean is the line for the game settling. I mean is it settling in a sense that the conference tournaments built money up over several games and then "settled" with a final game or two.

It can be very situational but it sure smells like a pass. Some of those questions I was asking were just an example of the things to look at that build up to a play.

Soccer can be tough, sometimes it's best to find the tie, when nobody's looking for it...lol.

[KVB]

Here are the forecast results using only a half point discrepancy from the market for the Conference Tournaments for AAC, Atl 10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big 10, Pac 12, SEC, and Conference USA…

Against the Spread:
Open: 45-52 (46.39%), Close 50-51 (49.5%)

Against the Moneyline:
Overall 66-32 (67.35%), predicting favorites 56-23 (70.89%), predicting upsets 9-9 (50%), when predicting the upset but the line moves to predicting the favorite 1-0 (Tenn vs. Georgia)

Against the TOTALS:
Open: 61-38 (61.62%), Close 61-40 (60.40%)

The forecast predicting upsets is high at this point and the same for predicting favorites to win. That’s a good tournament.

Again, I am using only a half point discrepancy against the market here. I’m being hard on myself. For example, if you remove all the games with Total movement that moved to or through my line (any game that had a different result forecasted against the opening total because of line movement), the percentage against Totals goes to 62.64%.

If you do the same ATS we end up do better than just openers, but worse than the closers at 47.13%.

With such a high run on the Totals and moneylines, I’m not surprised the spread results are close to 50-50. Of course, a small tweak in the discrepancy changes that for the better.

Think Tank this shit.

[KVB]

Alright, back to work.

[DwightShrute]

[KVB]

I know I’m not covering some conferences but it is part of the big dance and I’ll track it here.

The sharp forecast says Mt. St. Mary’s beats New Orleans 69-66. The public gauge says New Orleans wins 68-64.

My forecast calls for the upset, right off the bat. The line has moved towards my line and we have seen pick and we may it cross.

I see considerable action on Mt. St. Mary’s from several groups, some of whom are very sharp long term, but the market is hiding a bit. Tickets appear to be on NO, but I know that’s not the case.

Like I said, some of those guys taking that UNDER are as sharp as it gets long term, but short term I challenged their notions and picked up New Orleans -1 (+102) and -105 over Mt. St. Mary’s.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

K. State/Wake

The sharp forecast has Wake Forest beating Kansas State 75-69. The public gauge says K State wins 77—74.

The pick has moved away from my line to K State being favored. In some sense, this attempts to balance the market movement of the other game and fives screen readers a toss-up choice. I would be wary of a line that intentionally moves to create a forecast upset.

As it pressures upward, money will draw to the upset. So now both games presented tonight sit with forecasted upsets. The market has a way of getting back to the natural give and take, putting everything it “two’s” and then siphoning the juice from the pool of money.

I’m passing here for the side in the trading account but know that the forecasts most recent predictions against totals in the ACC have been 7-1 and, in the Big 12 they have been 4-1.

These aren’t reasons by themselves to make a play, but I see a bit of pressure outside of the forecasts on the Under as well and we could see some money coming to a head here.

I picked up OVER 148 (-105) for K. State vs. Wake Forest and countered both my forecast and the movement. This is a situation being monitored but I bought anyway because I think there could be a sudden shift upward, if even to 148.5.

Should this game stay UNDER I think will see future market opportunity from a contrarian stand point.



Ordinarily I would warn about making plays so early in this tourney when no money has begun to flow, especially when countering the forecasts. But I think the market aims to take down some types of money early, as it will force patience in the bettors for when they get it back.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I'm trying to focus on the NCAA tourney here and just those conferences and will track that but here are the forecasts for NIT games...

Monmouth 78, Ole Miss 73

Indiana 7,1 GTech 70

Illinois 67, Valpo 65

Bakersfield 65, Cal 64

Richimond 67, Bama 64

Oakland 80, Clemson 68

Utah 74, Boise St. 72

I offer this so you can compare to your own predictions to help in making decisions. I doubt I'll track these NIT games for this thread, but maybe just the forecasts less the write-ups. These games are in conferences I am focusing on and could give us indications of money flow.

There are some upsets predicted here so it could be interesting.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Im on the over 148 also kvb

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Well 148.5 to be to be exact