AAC
The sharp forecast has SMU beating UCF 70-65. The public gauge shows SMU winning 68-58.
The line opened closer to the gauge but has moved toward my line a tick. The Total opened at 124.5 and moved toward my line to the gauge. Yesterday the forecast predicted all OVERS in this conference and does it again here. Also, the next game in this conference is forecasts at 131 points, predicting another OVER.
It sure smells like an UNDER, especially with the books having a lower line at the open and taking all the action on the OVER.
I’ll bite for game one (patience?) and take UNDER 126.5 (-105) for UCF vs. SMU.
There is pressure on SMU similar to the Kentucky game and similar to the Notre Dame Florida State game last night. UCLA saw the same pressure but I overlooked it by mistake when I posted there was nothing steering money I that game in the NCAAB markets. I apologize for that mistake.
With Dame paying those groups I have to think there will be some take. That would lead to a UCF cover. UCLA failing wasn’t so much settlement but more of balance.
Because of the balance, I’m passing, I’m already in Alabama and think the volume there is worth it; but don’t be surprised SMU fails today.
It should be SMU, but…
Good Luck