[KVB]

Pac 12

The sharp forecast says Arizona beats Colorado 74-64. The public gauge has Zona winning 75-65.

That total is at 138.5 and has not moved, sometimes these numbers I post explain a lot. I think the books are failing to show the pressure on Arizona here from a few market moving groups. In fact, I think it’s intentional and want to take Colorado because of it. It seems the last three games I’ve looked at and posted involve some position taking. There's room for give and take.

It seems the books are welcoming this action on the favorites and don’t mind revealing it. There’s some time left and this game is a bit different because the ATS prediction lies with the favorite.

Is everyone on Arizona tonight? I sure won't be. Let's see if this line budges, but for now I'm calling underdog alert but passing for the trading account.

[KVB]

Conf USA

The sharp forecast has ODU beating Marshall 78-72. The public gauge says ODU wins 78-75.

The line has moved towards my line to ODU -5.5 after opening near the public gauge. The Total is once again between the numbers and has ticked slightly away from my line.

This is yet another instance where the favorite is getting hit from a few angles. Some of those seeking ODU have been burned in this conference already, they seek a settlement but in an unsophisticated way.

My forecast has been correct against the moneyline in every game so far in this conference and has only failed against one spread. It’s time for some settlement and I have to take Marshall +5 (+100) and +206 over ODU.

Good Luck

[KVB]

SEC

Fuk, I missed a game. It just ended and here’s a past posted forecast for record purposes.

Sharp forecast has Vanderbilt Beating A&M 70-63. The public gauge has Vandy winning 66-63.

[KVB]

ACC

The sharp forecast says Notre Dame beats Virginia 66-62. The public gauge has Virginia winning 64-60.

We have split here with moneylines and that opening Virginia -3 went to -5 before coming back to -3.5. The Total has opened a bit low for these numbers but has moved 5 points upward to 124, towards the forecast.

I think the public, who love Virginia has this game a bit out of whack. I also think the Total opened low for a reason but with so much ACC money relatively split, I want to pass.

If Vtech and Florida St. stay under, my forecast will have been correct against the Totals in all three ACC games today. It calls for the OVER in the final game. That game may be low scoring.

It’s a pass for now.

This power posting is insane by the way.

[KVB]

Big East

The sharp forecast has Providence beating Creighton 75-65. The public gauge has Creighton winning 75-71.

The sharp forecast predicts an upset, the line has ticked that way, and the Total has been all over the place.

I’m passing here as money is once again generally split in this conference. For this game, market information implies that Creighton is drawing enough to balance that providence money. Providence bettors want the moneyline, Creighton bettors take the spread.

Creighton winning at the last second by one or two points could be a reasonable result.

Power posting is burning me out.

[KVB]

Big 12

The sharp forecast has Baylor beating Kansas State 73-66. The public gauge has Baylor winning 67-61.

This line is a bit low and has moved away from the forecast. There is pressure on both sides of this line and I would say the K State pressure is a little more sophisticated in its decision making.

...Note that my forecast has failed against the spread and moneyline in every game so far in this conference. After failing miserably with Kansas, a WV win and Texas cover would fit nicely as a settlement. Of course, the line has shifted enough to mess with the value of West Virginia. This game could settle with an 11 point margin of victory, but look for Texas to play close....

This game ended a 10 point game with a 10.5 closing spread. With this settlement I am passing on the final Big 12 game.

[KVB]

SEC

The sharp forecast has Ole Miss beating Mizzou 81-70. The public gauge says Ole Miss wins 77-70.

This game already started but could be interesting down the stretch, if we see an Ole Miss blowout, we should be able to find future opportunity.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

I got head right before I made that post last night kvb

Felt great dur7ng it , I smoked a 1 hit of some ny diesel before

Not to sound like a teenager and shit but damn does weed make sex/head feel 10 times better

Anyways came so hard I almost farted and evrything was alright but then in computer room alone

The anxiety started to hit..... man weed makes me more anxious about all this shit

but I love weed because without a shadow of a doubt it enhances any situation

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Fukk you smokenjoke , id only fight you now if it was body blows only , n8thing above the chest

Hit you so hard when you finally wake up ur clothes will be out of style

[KVB]

...I want to pass here but an Indiana win here would actually help settle some of the take from those earlier blowouts.

I have to take the shot with Indiana -2.5 (-105) over Iowa. Let’s hope this isn’t a middle and let’s hope we get that settlement early, because it doesn’t exactly show patience.

The Indiana blowout helps confirm the settlement. Getting blown out earlier makes me look worse than I am and this Indiana blowout makes me look better than I really am.

An even keel with emotions is very important. While blowouts have an effect on perception and the stats, a 50 point win or a 1 point win still pays the same.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Gonna call me out in in his signature below his screen name

fukk u smokenjoke

Ill hit you so hard , your moms will fall off

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Im gonna hit you so hard , you'll be the first person walking around in Heaven with a ice pack

[KVB]

...The anxiety started to hit..... man weed makes me more anxious about all this shit

but I love weed because without a shadow of a doubt it enhances any situation

Higher THC contributes to anxiety but they found that the CBD counter acts that anxiety. It's the plants own way of checking itself. A little less THC and little more CBD can make the difference.

The good news is that you may have to try all different types of kind bud to find the best one...

[KVB]

...The line has moved into triggering a play on St Louis and I have taken it with St. Louis +9.5 (-105) and +413 over George Washington.

I think the books are taking a position here and have been all day long and that this game comes down to the final shot....

GW held to 13 points at the half.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

What sucks kvb is I dont have a choice what strain I get

its all fire tho, but its always different

I throw my cousin a grand and he gets a cutie of it

and we get a certain percentage of the smoke and he makes the rest back

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Whats the difference between smokenjoke and a bucket of shit?










The Bucket

[KVB]

What sucks kvb is I dont have a choice what strain I get

its all fire tho, but its always different

I throw my cousin a grand and he gets a cutie of it

and we get a certain percentage of the smoke and he makes the rest back

It's all fire tho!

[KVB]

Pac 12

The sharp forecast has UCLA beating USC 83-68. The public gauge says UCLA wins 89-80.

Both the spread and Total both opened close to the public guge and have both moved toward my line (the spread only half point move to 10).

UCLA is public team and money can rally behind them with little effort. They are no doubt getting the tickets here. I think this line could even be higher and it is a bit suspicious that it hasn’t moved much.

There aren’t too many angles and metrics to give us a play here. Things are split except for UCLA bets. I think this game is less about settlement and more about the future. A UCLA blowout will have ramifications, and will be a rally cry. If so, we’ll be waiting for a pot to splash.

This game is a pass for the trading account.

That's the last game of the day.

<br>

[KVB]

...This line is a bit low and has moved away from the forecast. There is pressure on both sides of this line and I would say the K State pressure is a little more sophisticated in its decision making.

We had the tools to pull the trigger here at the time, we really did.

But now, with so many results, we can look back and see that the market was taking all those favorite bets because it was giving out a big one with Kansas State.

The metrics all point to this being the structure and I can't believe I pulled the trigger with Rutgers and not K State as well. Having a ranked team involved in the game is just one of many pieces of information processed there, not to mention a way to measure and gauge the big picture.

I made a mistake here. When we see a mistake we have to eliminate them. Not to make excuses, but to figure out why it was made can be important. I didn't overlook a piece of information, I was looking right at it in time to make the play.

Beating the markets can be so difficult it requires control over your thinking. The markets take a psychological toll even I can’t break from and the best thing to do is know it exists. We see it all the time analyzing the markets. Each group gets caught in their own toll. This is why it is so difficult to hit high percentages. I believe that trying to wear multiple hats and understand where each stands is one way to gain more and lose less.

Anyway, the best I can figure is that I was so rushed with posting that I was complacent after the settlement with Texas and West Virginia and chose to pass. No big deal really but this posting has been insane.

If you’ve read along for a while in this thread and have gotten this far you’ve learned something, win or lose. I can only put in so much posting like this but even what is there is valuable. Going back and reading some of the posts isn’t a bad idea. I plan to; and to check with the results of the games.

Then again, I’ve written so much I can’t remember what I wrote or which aspects I focused on…lol.

[KVB]

Here are the forecast results using only a half point discrepancy with the market after Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday…

Against the Spread:
Open: 27-28 (49.09%), Close 31-28 (52.54%)

Against the Moneyline:
Overall 37-21 (63.79%), predicting favorites 33-16 (67.35%), predicting upsets 3-5 (37.5%), when predicting the upset but the line moves to predicting the favorite 1-0 (Tenn vs. Georgia)

Against the TOTALS:
Open: 31-28 (52.54%), Close 31-29 (51.67%)

[smokenjoke]

Fukk you smokenjoke , id only fight you now if it was body blows only , n8thing above the chest

Hit you so hard when you finally wake up ur clothes will be out of style

im gonna hit you so hard that blind people around will flinch.
Dont have me go your way and tune your lil ass up fiddy!!!
Dont do it

[KVB]

[KVB]

Big 10

The sharp forecast has Michigan beating Purdue 72-68. The public gauge says Purdue 73-70.

The total opend right at the forecast and we have a moneyline split right out of the gate. The line is of course closer to the public gauge but I believe the books are off setting public money by directing certain groups to the underdog. Analysts know this and have chosen to counter, giving rise to Purdue moving from -1 to -3.5, away from the sharp line.

Nobody’s fooled here and they have spoken. They are probably right. I am passing because it is early and there is a split here that could go either way. While some settlement in the form of an underdog should come in this conference today, it may be too soon. This game has a close one written all over it.

Patience is a virtue.

[KVB]

Atl 10

The sharp forecast has Dayton beating Davidson 77-70. The public gauge has Dayton winning 76-70.

The line opened at 5 and has moved toward the forecast. The total opened lower than both numbers and has moved away from the Total. The spread is tight but the total is getting some analyst action on the UNDER side. A quick look at recent performance will show why.

With such a low total there is bound to be OVER consideration and we have another split.

It’s early and I am passing in the trading account. We need to see some moneyflow in this conference.

[KVB]

AAC

The sharp forecast has SMU beating East Carolina 76-61. The pubic gauge has SMU winning 71-53.

The spread is at the gauge and has moved away from my line. The Total tried to open near the public gauge at 123. We just saw an increase to 127, toward my line. The large movement is caused not only by the forecasters triggering bets but also extra pressure from analysts to settle a situation with the totals on the OVER.

This line opened awfully low and I doubt it was mistake. The books took the OVER action that they likely knew they would get it. Again, it’s the early and I want to see where the chips fall, even if it means a missed opportunity to fade the forecast with the Totals.

[KVB]

Conf USA

The sharp forecast has Mid Tenn State beating UTEP 73-67. The public gauge has Mid Tenn winning 71-60.

The line opened between those numbers and has moved away from my line. There is considerable pressure for UTEP to fail ATS and that combined with public perception has led that move away from the forecast. The Total opened very low and has ticked toward my line.

The Marshall upset last night was a form of settlement and while I want to take Midd tenn St and follow that UTEP pressure to fail, but I know that the more these pressure build in the face of a 10 point line the more chance we see an upset.

I think UTEP fails considering the closer sharp forecast and the near perfect forecast record in this conference. Of course, a UTEP upset would go against the forecast as well.

I’m not betting it because the line may have had to open higher than the forecast, there may have been no choice, as that UTEP pressure weighs on the originators. Things are split.

This keeps a bit of a split. UTEP cold get one more win, or they could get blown out. I don’t see this falling in between.

[KVB]

SEC

The sharp forecast has Kentucky beating Georgia 77-64. The public gauge says Kentucky wins 81-71.

The line is at the gauge but shifting towards my line. The Total opened closer to the high gauge and has moved towards my line.

Obviously there is a lot of public pressure on Kentucky and along with the forecast should bring plenty of Kentucky money and tickets. I think many who think they learned after different settlements yesterday will take the underdog here, for different reasons. They will not be as sophisticated and are probably not patient enough to win here.

Further, we could see settlement today at one point. With all favorites covering against the close in the SEC yesterday there is bound to be an offsetting upset. It’s not patient to jump against Kentucky here, but it’s not necessarily wrong either. It’s not sophisticated enough by itself but when we see the gauge and forecast align like this, in this situation, anything could happen

That said I am passing in the trading account…for now.

[KVB]

This power posting is crazy and I have to run out right now. I should be on the next batch of games soon.

Anyone notice that with all this posting there are no edits?

I try to keep it clean.

[KVB]

Fuk it, I picked up Kentucky -10.5 (-105) over Georgia in the trading account.

I think Kentucky buries bettors in the form of slapping a hand that reaches into the cookie jar.

Good Luck

[KVB]

Big 10

The sharp forecast has a tie game between with Michigan State and Minnesota at 72-72 with Minnesota getting the slight moneyline edge in the raw score. The public gauge has Minnesota winning 71-69.

Lo and behold, the line opened a pick and moved to Minnesota -2. The Total has opened below the gauge and has moved away from my line.

I believe the market bettors seek the Michigan underdog and Minnesota as a favorite in what would a 2 pick parlay with market moving money. It’s one reason I wrote this…

...The sharp forecast has Michigan beating Purdue 72-68. The public gauge says Purdue 73-70.

...This game has a close one written all over it....

Indeed we are seeing a close game and Michigan is playing strong. This drives money to Minnesota and helps to explain why it appears to be reverse line movement. The public likes their Michigan State.

Expect this game to be ambiguous until late and with Michigan playing so well the sharks may be circling for the late Purdue cover.

I’m waiting before pulling any triggers here. Money is flowing, but it’s been known to switch directions suddenly.

[KVB]

Atl 10

The sharp forecast has a tie between St. Bonnies and RI at 67-67 with Rhode Island getting the moneyline edge in the raw score. The public gauge says Rhode Island wins 72-68.

The line opened at the gauge and has moved away from my line. I know the public liked RI, but does it justify the movement? Something’s a little funny with this one. Likewise, the Total opened between the numbers and has moved away from my forecast.

I’m looking closer here. With the forecast succeeding against the moneyline on all 4 games in this conference yesterday I may have missed an upset bet in the first game. I was focused on the Total. It will be fine, money will still flow.

I think we need to see more moneyflow in this conference. I said the same thing in the last Atl 10 post. I’m still watching but St. Bonnies looks a little attractive.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[KVB]

AAC

The sharp forecast says UCF beats Memphis 73-62. The public gauge says UCF wins 66-65.

The line has opened with UCF -1.5 and moved toward my line. The total opened below the numbers but quickly shot up 2 points to 132. It has since gone back down as bettors seek some give and take with an Under…Note the high scoring SMU game and the forecasts.

I’m still in passing mode for the trading account here as SMU was big game for the conference and Tulsa vs. Cinci will also have a good amount of volume. I already messed up in this conference by not looking at some metrics implying the forecast would be good with E Carolina...and it was.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[KVB]

Conf USA

The sharp forecast says Louis Tech beats Marshall 83-71. The public gauge say Louis Tech wins 87-82.

The line opened at Tech -4 and moves toward my line and onto the gauge of -5. The total opened slightly above the gauge but has moved toward my lower line.

I think there is unsophisticated money on the OVER and that moving the line downward makes it grow. Simply put, the public is basically on the Over and the sharps on the Under. You know what to do here, but the line movement is a concern. Because we “know what to do” with the Under, it seems a bit to revealing and we could see this total middle the line.

Metrics are split a bit on whether or not to take the underdog here. It forces me to pass in the trading account but getting the hungry underdog seeking analyst to pass is usually just what the market orders when it pays the underdog.