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I have Clemson winning 78-65 over NC State and public gauge says Clemson wins by 7 points at 82-75.
Public gauge much close to the line than my forecast for sure.
The game has started but I'll try to put forecasts out for all the major tournament games. Maybe for a different thread, but for now that's game one.
Let's see where tracking leads us.
Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow
but still
It's best just to enjoy the view from heights like that Cash.
The sharp forecast says Wake Forest beats Boston College 85-66.
The public gauge say Wake Forest wins 87-75...again very close to the line.
First two games so far in the ACC Tourney has the favorite and UNDER predicted by the sharp forecast.
But for the third game, the sharp forecast has a 65-65 tie with Georgia Tech getting a very slight moneyline edge (less than 1/2 a point).
The non predicitive public gauge shows Pitt winning 66-64.
For that final game today the line is Pitt -1.5 and moving away from the sharp forecast. The TOTALS are a bit tighter. Sidelining any sharper forecasters for the TOTAL could bring the OVER in this game as some analysts are buying with the upward move and they could get paid. There is more info to be had before this decision.
If that Pitt line continues to grow sharper money may hit the GTech moneyline. There are some indications that the books seek this action, and I think a number of tickets are publicly looking for the upset...an effect caused by the low opener of Pitt favored, even thought it's a relatively sharp opener. The books get a benefit there, if indeed it's the GTech moneyline they are selling.
Some of has this writing has to come quick as the games advance and that's why I'm just throwing forecasts to track and not screaming for plays. I need to see just how it's best to read the market, I've been wrong a bit recently.
If there is tailing by anyone, follow the sharp forecast and things should be fine, but be wary of the TOTALS, some metrics indicate they could go into a slump.
So much could be written about so many things. From regional money movement to more subtle effects on the lines from the unsuspecting public. Money is flowing from many aspects and it's hard to hit them all.
One thing to notice, as more information is gained regarding the flow of money for even just this ACC tournament's first day, notice how our market tightens. That last game showing a much closer line to the sharper forecasts, the public forecast has seen it all day...the books already have them gambling, now the market is trying to increase action as the day progresses and entice others to gamble as well.
Ok enough.
Final score 75-61. It's NFL playoff season all over again. Caution, the sharp stacking forecast may run hot this Tourney season.
The line is now -2.5 in many places. I don't believe this movement is designed to curb favorite action. I believe it's designed to increase underdog action instead. If Pitt is the play, it appears we are paying in the line movement to be able to see the last result. This might turn some players waiting for information away from the favorite bet, even though it's not the main intention and even though those players may not know relevant value from a hole in the ground...perception is all that matters.
It's no wonder game two in the ACC tournament is right near the line in the last few minutes with a TV timeout occurring with a 13 point differential.
Are we looking at two favorites and two successful sharp forecasts ATS and Moneyline? If so, can we get a third? What if Wake doesn't cover? Stick to the forecast?
"What if" is there because Wake and Boston College are playing to a number. Let's see how that game ends...I hope it's the favorite.
There will be time to make a decision and I can't help but think sharp money will force that line back down everywhere.
I think an unsophisticated market seeks the underdog at the same time that winning sharp forecasts seek the same.
The contrarian in me says to take Pittsburgh -2.5 but I took Pittsburgh -149 over GTech to compensate for the loss in line. This game could be close.
Here we go again, giving the forecasts then going against them in the trading account. How's that worked out for me in this thread?
Short Description Basketball - 711 Pittsburgh -149 for Game
I think I'll probably stop pasting my pending page, with maybe the exception of golf. I'll post trading plays and track them, but I may just write them in a post instead of this copying stuff. There will be too much through tourney season and it gets in the way of things like this...
And this...
Pitt starts out leading 3-0.
Pitt leading throughout 1st half.
I could see this game ending in a little reminder not to try and outsmart the books.
Anyone who follows probably knows what to do when I read the market and go contrarian...go buy GTech halftime.
I thought about it, but that line and number seem too appetizing. I'm holding with Pitt.
I will now stick the dagger in with a picture of a Pitt Panther girl...
That should seal the win for GA Tech.
Pitt won 61-59, a 2 point game.
This settlement makes sense as any late Pitt spread takers were also burned. Making the jump to Pitt from the GTech forecast wasn't a very difficult call as the signs were there. It was textbook and the market has revealed one of its traps. Now it gets more difficult and I'll point out how as the situations come up.
Had in been GTech, it would not have been near the settlement we seek and we know there would be repercussions.
Welcome to Tourney Season.
GTech covered the +1/2 and outright won the second half.
I plan to post my forecasts for the NCAA tournament and every conference tournament for these conferences...
AAC, ACC, Atlantic 10, Big 12, Big East, Big 10, Pac 12, SEC, and Conference USA.
I can make forecasts for just about any game there is a line on, but I think we should focus on these big ones.
Grapes, check in yo. I'm starting to get a little more organized.
We need to get into the same room together, it's going to be hard to explain the interface I'm shooting for without a discussion.
Grapes hasnt logged into sbr in over a month I think
and he does (did) live in the dangerous city of Chicago .......
Cash, recent GIFS by you are a bit disturbing. Should we be disturbed here? How you feeling? Jaw aside, you holding up?
Maybe Grapes just stepped away for a bit, I did most of February, and didn't read much of SBR either.
Grapes?
Perhaps these will lure him back...
The forecat is focused for tournament time, he's been well trained...
ACC
Sharp forecast says Miami beats Syracuse 69-64. The public gauge say Miami wins 69-65.
These forecasts are well aligned and make me want to jump to Syracuse. On the other hand, recent performance is sending tickets to Syracuse as well. It’s the first game of the day and I think it will be a pass for trading. With many more games to go, I won’t write much more. When in doubt, if we have to make a bet, we go with the forecast during tourney season.
Remember the performance of the stacking percentages forecast in the NFL Playoffs? It went well and was a constant loss to counter it.
Conference USA
The sharp forecast says Texas San Antonio beats Western Kentucky 70-67.
The public gauge has Western Kentucky winning 68-65.
There is a split between the gauges but one thing to notice is that this line opened at 4 and has pressured slightly upward. We may see -4.5 now, but I could see that going back to 4, if it goes anywhere.
No bold plays, no trading plays, just some watching early on here.
The sharp forecast has Clemson beating Duke 72-69. The public gauge has Duke winning 76-72.
There is obvious pressure on Duke from many angles, especially to win, but I’m not so sure it’s that easy. They could be set up to fail here. The appetite for Duke led to a very a high line and still a lot of Duke bets, but you can see why the line has dropped. The concern is that this play has value to the Clemson side and the books knew it, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the line hit 6 points, even in the face of the Duke support.
The Total opened right near that public gauge and I believe the sharp forecast shows why it has dropped. Again, this is in spite of the classic public liking the favorites and the OVER at the ticket window. I don’t think they get both by any means.
With such an easy settlement last night in this tournament, I’m again passing in the trading account. I think there is more to gain by watching.
Let’s see if the sharp forecast can pull an upset in the ACC.
question of the day:
where was this trucker going, and why was he going there so fast?
first, the trucker:
second, the reason he was driving so fast:
to get to these:
So KVB, how that March Madness its treating you?
Seems that you have your hands full.
meanwhile in Russia...
My 8 year old just starting learning Taekwondo, he has a ways to go as far as coordination, but he's improved quite a bit already. It's fun to watch.
March madness just getting started. Tomorrow will be real busy. it's always a battle.
PAC 12
The sharp forecast says Stanford beats Arizona State 77-66. The public gauge has Stanford winning 77-74.
While the public gauge seems right on the line, both the TOTAL and spread have moved towards the sharp line. Once again we have an UNDER predicted in the sharp forecast.
First game of the Pac 12 and we haven’t seen these lines getting hit in the direction of the forecast fail anywhere. While we are bound to see that upset soon, I don’t like the low public line and passing again in the trading account. Be careful countering the sharp forecast, when it’s all said and done, the forecasts will show their advantage.
Conference USA
The sharp forecast has Rice beating Southern Miss 74-71. The public gauge has Rice winning 78-67.
The TOTALS are in alignment here and the public gauge is once again close to the spread. The line has moved towards my sharp line (actually both lines) a little bit.
The sharp forecast just paid an upset in this conference and that close sharp line is probably not going to lead to an upset (just when you rule out an upset, that’s when they tend to come). Again I’m passing in the trading account but clearly the sharp line triggers another underdog bet.
Good luck and follow the forecasts; so far they have done well against the moneylines and spreads. I will review when there is more time. I think as money starts to move there will be a little more of the market analysis I usually give.
Big 10
The sharp forecast has Penn State beating Nebraska 75-68. The pubic gauge has Penn St winning 73-71.
Both forecasts are slightly above the opening TOTAL and the line has moved about a point accordingly. Once again that public gauge is close to the offered lines and we have seen the line move towards the sharp forecast.
Again no play in the trading account but the sharp forecast clearly triggers a Penn State play. I think the public is on Penn State as well. The move from pick to favorite and the pressure that way once again shows the public tendency of favorites and OVERS is aligned with the sharper forecast. The move off of -2 back to -1.5 actually could trigger another type of advantage bet based on line analysis alone on Nebraska as well as Nebraska steam.
I think this pulls money from Penn State and benefits Penn state bettors. The books like the split. When two advantage indications point in opposite directions, it’s the definition of a pass.
This should be a good game. It's not what they play, it's how they play it.
In the event of a blowout Penn State victory and cover it would embolden the forecasters and attempt to demoralize those with an otherwise very sharp form of line analysis.
Penn State out big early, let's see if it turns.
Pac 12
The sharp forecast shows California beating Oregon State 71-55. The public gauge has Cal winning 67-50.
The TOTAL is split between here but has moved higher, toward the sharp forecast, since the open.
I mentioned a potential upset in the Stanford game and they are going to overtime. Even in OT we could still see the favorite cover.
Either way, the close first game implies the underdog and I suspect Arizona St. to cover as dog. If so, Pac 12 money, if you will, may start to lean for favorites. There are 3 double digit favorites left today. The sharp forecast has the favorites covering until the final game.
I suspect that steering money toward Cal, combined with the forecasts, is too much. I would be wary about taking Cal here, and would look for Oregon State to cover.
Let’s see how the first Pac 12 game ends.
Penn State already tied up as I was writing the last post.
Also, it looks like Zona State is going to get the upset.
I have picked up Oregon State +15 (-110) and Oregon State +14.5 (-110) over California.
There are many 14 point lines out there, as it gets closer to game time I think we see the pressures I'm talking about hit Cal.
Get at least the +14.5 as this could come down to a close one.
Atlantic 10
The sharpest forecast has UMASS beating St. Joe’s 73-68. The public gauge has UMASS winning 73-71. The line opened right on the public gauge and both Spread and Totals have moved toward the sharp forecast.
If you look at the numbers, these lines are pretty sharp but still allow for middles with sharp movement, something we’ve seen already this tourney season.
I like the UNDER here, but of course the line has moved too far. This is the first game of the Atlantic 10 Tourney and I will pass for the trading account.
In general, it's the second trade of a middle that pays off, but I would not counter the forecast and movement by taking St. Joe's plus the points. Not this time.
Conference USA
The sharp forecast shows UAB beating NC Charlotte 70-68. The public gauge has UAB winning 78-75.
This line opened UAB -5 and has gone away from my line while the TOTAL has moved towards my line. The sharp forecast has been correct against the spread and moneyline in both games so far in this conference, including an upset prediction.
In that upset prediction, the line moved away from my line as well. Again there is a pass on this on this game for the trading account, but I could see UAB covering this spread.
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