[Fidel_CashFlow]

Italk about an easy cash

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Also got warriors /76ers over 220 to finish off a 2 teamer from last night

over looks lime its going to cash early in the 4th in that game

[KVB]

Well 148.5 to be to be exact

Check the forecast above, I hit when Oakland beat Clemson. Non of it online, none of trading, just long term, but these upsets have been paying.



The public gauge had Clemson beating Oakland with the exact opposite score...80-68. That was a "spread" of 24 points. The line was Clemson -10 and I hit both bets, getting +500 and the side.

That score and "spread" have certain compression factors that tell me that this wave of upset predicting by the forecast running so high may be turning. I hope not. I'll track it here daily. It'll be an interesting story.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Man Steph Curry these last few weeks out there on the court lookin like he has a extra chromosome or something
Guy misses every open look

[KVB]

And now Bakersfield is out a bunch on Cal, another predicted upset, I hope they hang on.

As far as CSU Bakersfield girls, this will have to do...

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Curry still sucking doing best job he can at blowing this over total

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[KVB]

NCAA

NC Central/UC Davis

The sharp forecast says NC Central beats UC Davis 73-59. The public gauge says NC Central wins 66-64

This line is close to the public gauge without much movement. The Total is right the numbers. NC Central has covered quite a bit for their bettors and is gaining traction in the market. I think NC Central could fail against the bettors here but I will pass.

I believe the total is fairly balanced except that there is Over pressure that isn’t be shown in the marketplace. The volume on this game is an issue as far as trading and for now the tight market warrants passing on the OVER bet for many bettors.

Tightening this line a sidelining certain sharper bettors leads me to believe that a long awaited OVER bet could be coming. Ordinarily I would jump to this Over but as the line drops it seems a bit like last night’s K State vs. Wake game.

It should be the Over in the first game tonight, but...

Further, an Under would drive money to the Over in the next game with USC and Providence, only to see that Under come as well.

There needs to be some sort of money steering and flow as both Totals have opened tight with one play and then moved through my forecast, even if just by half of a point.

[omedo]

Ohhh threre you are KVB.

Motivation, diferent levels of motivation, would love to discuss that with you

[KVB]

NCAA Tourney


USC/Providence

The sharp forecast shows Providence beating USC 71-70. The public gauge has Providence winning 70-69.

This line opened a pick and has moved away from both numbers on public USC support to move into a forecasted upset. The Total line is also right at the forecast.

I’m not sure how much time I can put into each game here but let’s look at some of that USC pressure moving away from the line. In the Pac 12, the last 6 games have been underdogs and the last 4 have been outright upsets. Given the give and take of the markets, we are seeing an adjustment, in part, to those seeking balance.

This doesn’t represent very sophisticated decision making money but I can also see pressure from more sophisticated groups. Lately, these groups have been getting paid and the market has a way of lining them up to take them down.

K. State/Wake

The sharp forecast has Wake Forest beating Kansas State 75-69. The public gauge says K State wins 77—74.

...I would be wary of a line that intentionally moves to create a forecast...

It didn’t work out too well for Wake last night and I say the same here with USC tonight…but it’s a market of give and take.

Adding these factors up causes us to worry about a USC spread bet but a Providence upset bet also carries risk. I have to pass here but a settlement of USC winning inside the line makes some sense.

As far as the Total, I have mentioned a potential market structure that would drive money to the OVER in this a game based on the first game, perhaps with the result of taking it down. Possibly adding to the unsophisticated flow of money we can consider that, in rotation order, there have been 5 straight Unders in the Big East. Now, understand that forecast money and streaking type money has been split on a game by game basis, but the results have still been a string and of Unders.

Yet other metrics indicate an Over in this game. The metrics, both sophisticated and unsophisticated, are starting to add up here.

[KVB]

NIT Forecasts:

Belmont 76, Georgia 64

Texas Arlington 74, BYU 70

Akron 71, Houston 67

S. Dakota 80, Iowa 71

Fresno St. 72, TCU 68

UC Irvine 62, Illinois St. 61

UCF 70, Colorado 64,

NC Greensborough 73, Syracuse 69

I mentioned last an indicator that we could see the forecast against upsets shifting pace from recent success and we have seen totals perform well so far.

In 7 of the 8 games in the NIT today, there are upsets forecasted...some pretty big. Yesterday, there were 7 upsets in 8 games in the NIT. It's almost comical.

Also, in all eight cases above the forecast calls for an Under.

[KVB]

Here are CBI games with teams from the conferences I am covering:

George Mason 66, Loyola Maryland 66, with G Mason a slight edge in raw ml score.

George Washington 68, Toledo 66

Rice 74, San Francisco 69

[KVB]

NCAA

NC Central/UC Davis

The sharp forecast says NC Central beats UC Davis 73-59. The public gauge says NC Central wins 66-64...
...an Under would drive money to the Over in the next game with USC and Providence, only to see that Under come as well...

...USC/Providence

The sharp forecast shows Providence beating USC 71-70. The public gauge has Providence winning 70-69....
As far as the Total, I have mentioned a potential market structure that would drive money to the OVER in this a game based on the first game, perhaps with the result of taking it down...
...Yet other metrics indicate an Over in this game. The metrics, both sophisticated and unsophisticated, are starting to add up here...

The first game started out slow and then caught up by halftime. I would not be surprised if that “catch up” came too early and was “fake news” (lol) and we see a slow second half.

[KVB]

...NC Central/UC Davis
...I believe the total is fairly balanced except that there is Over pressure that isn’t be shown in the marketplace. ...now the tight market warrants passing on the OVER bet for many bettors.

Tightening this line a sidelining certain sharper bettors...

...both Totals have opened tight with one play and then moved through my forecast, even if just by half of a point...

I mentioned that factors on the Total are adding up and even in game two we aren’t seeing the movement in the market place for even a late influx of over bets. Sure, there’s an Under market as well but what can also happen is the volume becomes lighter as more and more groups are sidelined.

The market may not need to move as market moving money is not hitting it.

It will be interesting to see the pace of scoring as the game winds down, let’s see if it shows Under or stays ambiguous.

If it speeds up I will pass for sure as an Over would already be a form of settlement…(it should be Over in the first game, but…--from above)

[KVB]

I think it stays Under, so in accordance with above I picked up UNDER 141 (-105) for USC vs. Providence.

Let's see if the market breaks for game 2 when everyone sees under 131 for game one and moves upward from 140.5 or 141...where it sits now.

Good Luck

[KVB]

NIT Forecasts:

Belmont 76, Georgia 64...

[KVB]

...Let's see if the market breaks for game 2 when everyone sees under 131 for game one and moves upward from 140.5 or 141...where it sits now...

That was IF it stayed Under, lol. The pressure on USC /Providence is ridiculous, regardless of volume (which is being generated as well), how can they not shift the line?

If the result stays Under, those houses, like Pinny, holding at 140.5 are fukers...lol.

I have to go and won't see the close of the market or the start of the game.

[KVB]

I think it stays Under, so in accordance with above I picked up UNDER 141 (-105) for USC vs. Providence.

Let's see if the market breaks for game 2 when everyone sees under 131 for game one and moves upward from 140.5 or 141...where it sits now...

The line went as high as USC -3 from the early pick, they won by 4. Like I said, be wary of line moves creating an upset with the forecast. The market paid the public twice (including K State), giving them the move but was able to balance it with triggered money on the upsets.

The total moved as anticipated but the contrarian play was wrong.

After the highly visible national “take” with Michigan and Wisconsin I’m not surprised to the market give a little and take from the contrarian bettor who won on Sunday. While it could be considered aftermath from last Sunday, the markets are continuous and what we are seeing is the public getting bolstered while money is lightest it will be all tournament.

I’m not explaining a loss or changing my tune here. I would make the same contrarian play again, it had an advantage. I didn’t get the best line, but I couldn’t trade in that account closer to game time and had to post when I did. I clearly expected the line grow. The metrics were right, the day’s flow was right; the advantage was there given the environment, the play was just wrong. Sometimes when the sharp long term forecast based on stacking percentages shows a pass, other metrics a can take over that can also produce a long term advantage. That was the case here.

Anyway, my point is that this is a play we will get back. Let the public get bolstered and the contrarian with a sharp line get beat down. Sometimes the risk with early trading in any program is that money is yet to flow (trading in a sense that I bet a total that was forecasted a clear pass).


Sometimes the beginning of a bigger picture like the tourney isn’t just the first game or day; the first block could be a beginning. To some metrics, it looks like some money was settled tonight, but I know that there was no true settlement. When the money gets bigger, and it’s time to surprise, the market will steer money and these emboldened public gamblers will be right back to where they were after Sunday’s Big Ten game.

We just need to be patient and let the inefficiencies come to us.

[KVB]

I know there is a larger market than these conferences, but in terms of settlement and give and take I take them into account when just talking about specific games. The specific games represent the public spearheads, the big games that represent the overall picture…almost like indices.

I knew this when deciding to stick to the conferences I am using. I do consider the big picture when posting about the give and take and the status of moneyflow.

It’s a complicated set of structures, these markets, and when I write about a game it may seem a little tunneled in vision. I can only write about so many aspects of each game, and I try to pick something relevant to the environment and what they bring as well as something about how they bring it.

There’s just so much info…lol.

Let the Madness begin.

[KVB]

I’ll get to some more in depth results later, but here’s some quick give and take.

In the big dance the forecasts have gone 1-3 against both the spread and moneyline. The win was another predicted upset, but on the face of it not a great start.

But look at the NIT so far…

The forecasts are 11-4 against the open and 10-5 against the closing spread.
They are 8-6 against the moneyline with 6 very nice upsets in there.

The CBI forecasts were 3-0 against the spread and 2-0 against moneylines.

The NCAA Tourney is weighing down the performance but overall that puts the posted forecasts 14-8 against the close for the covered conferences for Tuesday and Wednesday.

[KVB]

I have 7 pairs of golfers this week. I’ve tucked them in this thread through the weeks to see if we get back to them. Obviously this is a busy week but I can’t neglect golf.

The pairs I have uncovered are Hadwin and Howell III; Kokrak and Perez; Kirk and O’Hair; Swafford and Lovemark; List and P. Rodgers; Poulter and Huh; Weekley and Taylor.

I also bought Charley Hoffman (100-1) to win the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

I think he could tease the market here, letting us know we are getting closer.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[KVB]

Fuked up Trivia, clicked the wrong Raider...

[KVB]

The sharp forecast says Princeton beats Notre Dame 71-61. The public gauge says Notre Dame wins 71-63.

The line opened closer to gauge with Dame -7 and it has moved toward my line. The Total is right with the numbers. Notre Dame is the public favorite but the forecast is prevailing in the movement.

The forecast predicts an upset here and I have suspicions on how things may go but to list scenarios here and what to look for would be too much as there are staggered game starts all day long and multiple games among the conferences. I will be watching these early games and hopefully we see some money stir.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast says NC Wilmington beats Virginia 70-65. The public gauge says Virginia wins 73-65.

Again we have an upset forecasted against the spread and the line has opened at the gauge and moved toward my line. The total opened lower than the numbers, spiked to the forecasts, and has since come back down.

I’m not going to read too much into the line movements this early and while I see pressure on the Under from outside the forecasts, there are plenty of similar situations and we need more information to get a probabilistic opinion and to see the direction, if any, of the money.

There are staggered starts so I am passing for now but as information comes in, any trades can pop up.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast says Winthrop beats Butler 79-70. The public gauge shows Butler winning 79-71.

The trend here with the forecasts early is that they oppose the public gauge and the lines. Again we see an upset forecasted but the line has stayed steady. Butler is not as heavy a public favorite as one would think but I think we are still seeing broader tourney time inefficiencies in the lines.

The Total did open a little low and has moved toward my line. This seems to come up a few times this morning but again we need to see money flow to get to trades. The problem can be that just when we figure it out, we miss by a half point and push or lose.

[JMon]

Fuked up Trivia, clicked the wrong Raider...

[KVB]

The sharp forecast shows Gonzaga beating S Dakota St. 77-68. The public gauge has Gonzaga winning 90-64.

The line opened between the numbers and has moved away from my line. The Total opened neat the gauge and traded upward, away from my numbers.

For trading purposes I don’t like his line movement and while it reflects the favorite and Over public mentality, we still have to see more moneyflow.

That’s four dogs (3 upsets) forecasted in the first four games today. Wouldn’t that be something if no upset hit, but Gonzaga fell to South Dakota State?

[KVB]

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Bucknell beating West Virginia 79-63. The public gauge says West Virgin wins 79-69.

The line opened high and has moved towards both numbers. I see considerable pressure on the underdog from several metrics, including the numbers above and have countered the forecast move with West Virginia -13 (-110) over Bucknell.

I see the pressure and know where it’s coming from and the good reasons why. I’m just not jumping aboard, I’m jumping off. I believe this one inefficiency that won’t pay.

Good Luck

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has E Tenn St. beating Florida 73-66. The pubic gauge says Florida wins 78-69.

Another upset prediction and the line opened near the gauge and has shown dog pressure as it’s moved slightly downward. The Total opened between the numbers but has seen public pressure upward. I don’t see anything organic to indicate extra flow to cause the Total jump…somebody knows something about that total…lol.

I’m passing at the moment for the trading account as this is the first game in the SEC today and the second game in Orlando. The NC Wilm/Virg game is playing close to the spread down the stretch, not surprisingly, and it’s difficult to see moneyflow. We could even get the forecast upset there, it will be close.

[omedo]

The sharp forecast has Bucknell beating West Virginia 79-63. The public gauge says West Virgin wins 79-69.

The line opened high and has moved towards both numbers. I see considerable pressure on the underdog from several metrics, including the numbers above and have countered the forecast move with West Virginia -13 (-110) over Bucknell.

I see the pressure and know where it’s coming from and the good reasons why. I’m just not jumping aboard, I’m jumping off. I believe this one inefficiency that won’t pay.

Good Luck

Probably my english but i didnt get this part. Didnt you jump aboard with that bet? If it will not pay, why jump on?

[KVB]

The sharp forecast says Middle Tennessee beats Minnesota 77-65. The public gauge has Minnesota winning 71-68.

The line opened with Minny winning but has crossed over to Mid Tenn as a favorite. This time it went from a forecast upset to a forecast favorite. This does favor the forecast in terms of line analysis. The Total learly opened low and had moved upward.

I’m probably passing here for the trading account. I noticed the Butler lead grow right before the WV/Bucknell game tipped and then Winthrop closed the gap. Anything could still happen in that game and the Mid Tenn/Minn game is the first Big 10 game (of 5) and the only conference USA game.

Let’s see what happens in the first game Milwaukee.

[KVB]

Probably my english but i didnt get this part. Didnt you jump aboard with that bet? If it will not pay, why jump on?

Pressure was on the underdog, bringing the line down. Many reasons to bet were in play and they were heading to Bucknell.

Instead of "jumping on" that train to a Bucknell bet, I countered the masses (forecast included) with the favorite. It's a lot of points to cover, it may take until late in the game. Bucknell playing close and had I gone with them the sharks would be circling. In this game, at least I'm not leading against the spread early.

But I think the favorite pulls it out.


edit: The inefficiency is the high line helping make the Bucknell bet. That bet is the inefficiency that I say will not pay.