This was a really tough board this weekend. In way that is a good thing. Usually when it is tough to make choices the games tend to be tighter. Since we are using 15 point teasers that gives an advantage.
I did slip one of the early games in on my late game bet, because the board is so tough. I will give an explanation when I get there
Early games:
PHI/WAS over 38
DET +13
CHI +12
CIN +8.5
Late Games:
PHI +10.5
SD +13.5
SEA +2.5
NO +12
I was debating to tease Denver or not and talked myself out of it. Peyton Manning has been struggling with injuries to his ankles and knee. The Chiefs defense is one of the toughest in the league. If Peyton Manning goes down I do not even know who the backup QB is. Take him out of the game and this could look entirely different with a Chiefs team that doesn't turn the ball over and is very stingy on defense. On the other hand, if Manning does stay in the whole game and plays up to his potential I think the stronger offense outweighs the stronger defense, especially at home. I predict that the Chiefs could suffer their first defeat in blowout fashion. Ultimately the two outcomes I see are so drastically different that 15 points is not enough insurance, hell even 25 points would still make me uncomfortable.
I chose to slip the Eagles in this bet instead. There are a lot of things going on that make these games really tough to choose, especially the late games. I was going to take the Giants over the Packers but after doing some research on the web talked myself out of it. The Packers are vulnerable and the Giants are at home, but the Giants have just been awful this year. They won last week but it was a sloppy win. I can not put my trust in that.
Al McMordie went on SBR videos and picked the 49ers to rebound against the Saints. He almost talked me out of this game. I decided to go against him though because his picks are really predictable. The guy almost always goes after the underdogs. He had some logic for doing it, I can't say he was blindly picking the dogs, but I then took a look at the Saints and here is what I think. The Saints have been on fire at home. I do not expect that to change in this game. Their defense has been playing well. The 49ers offense has been struggling. NFL teams have started to figure out how to defend the read option and that takes away the 49ers biggest advantage. This pick does scare me a bit because when the 49ers are clicking on offense they can put up huge numbers. I ultimately decided to take the Saints because they are also capable of putting up huge numbers. I think they win this game straight up, but if they do not I am trusting that Drew Bress and company will keep this game close. +12 is a pretty big cushion.
Shawn: to win amount on both of these bets will be $600. That should come out to a risk amount of $1,500 a piece on them. I am setting this up as a set it and forget it deal. I have a band audition on Sunday so I will not be able to catch up on the action until later, eliminating the possibility of any last minute bets. Let me know if you have any questions.