I have slept on it and came up with a play that I originally was scared of but now I am really starting to like. I am looking at the Dolphins +17.5. I watched the video with Tony George on the tout videos and it s what first started me thinking about this play. Tony is expecting a defensive struggle. If that is the case then +17.5 is golden.
Jets are nasty on defense. Tannehil could be in for a rough day. Dolphins sport a good D as well and Geno Smith is looking just plain awful as of late. I think Wallace can scorch the Jets secondary. Miami has a good chance to win this SU. If not I see a tight ball game.
This will be a very high risk play because I must pull the trigger without knowing for sure if my first teaser covers. I have the Pats at +7. I was on all 3 Thanksgiving day games so the Pats are the final leg. I feel pretty good about my chances. I even considered taking them as the last leg in this teaser. I already have $2,300 riding on them. If I put them in both then I would have over $5,000 on that one game. I was not willing to take that risk.
As it stands I am making a very ballsy move. I will be betting $3,220 to win $1,288. If the Pats win then I will not sweat it because it will be pure profit at risk. If they lose my bankroll drops back to $4,500. At that point $3,220 makes me very nervous. This play will make or break my season.
No matter what happens I have had a fantastic season. I have tried more new ideas this year then I have in the past 5. I have been bit in the ass a few times, but I have also had some really big wins. Hope this weekend gives me a couple more.