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Pendulum Cycle Theory Experiment; Year 2
Last year I did an experiment using chase systems. I learned a lot and came up with something I called the Pendulum Cycle Theory. The experiment was a success, I made a 148% ROI. What I discovered though was that the chase system was not responsible for this success, it was actually holding me back. I will post a reply shortly that explains what I found and how the experiment is evolving for this year.
The Short Version
I will be running a 10 point teaser experiment this year. It will
start in week two because the way I choose teams is based on the
results from the prior week's games. I will attempt to place 10
different 10 point teaser bets per week at 1 unit a piece.
This is a continuation from last year's “2012 chase experiment”. I
have made some adaptations. The biggest change is I have dropped the
chase system in favor of what I call a “matrix”.
As long as my percentage remains above the break even point my profits will be fairly large due to the large amount of bets being placed.
In my backtests I made 107% ROI for 2011 and a staggering 1,039% ROI for 2012. While I would hope for those kind of results again that is
obviously quite extreme.
I will also run an experiment using 2 team parlays. I am applying
similar principles as the teaser strategy. The risk of ruin is
higher but the backtest for the last 2 years produced ROIs so big I
will not even mention them.
Long Version
The chasing experiment I did last year was an incredible learning
experience. My thread did not garner a lot of attention because
chasing is such a controversial topic. By studying sports betting
through the mindset of a Martingale player instead of the grind it
out percentage players which are the pros it opened my mind to seeing
connections that I otherwise would have missed.
I created what I call the “Pendulum Cycle Theory”. Instead of
seeing each game as a single random result I posit that the spreads
are reactionary. The point spread is a pricing system subject to the
forces of the marketplace. Bubbles occur in marketplaces and thus
boom and bust cycles take place on a regular basis.
The theory I propose is if you can understand the psychology of the
betting public you can find value in the spreads. The biggest
knee-jerk reactions occur when upsets take place. If an underdog
beats the spread but does not win I consider this to be an upset.
The magnitude of the upset is very important. If the Oakland Raiders
beat the spread by 5 points it is no big deal, but when the STL Rams
beat the the 49ers in their second meeting last year a phenomenon
takes place. The Rams were 8 point underdogs in this game. I
suggest that the spread in the next game was weak so you should fade
the Rams inside a 10 point teaser. They were 3 point underdogs
against the Bills next week. They won by 3 points. If you had taken
the Bills in a 10 point teaser you would have won that leg of the
bet. The 49ers were beaten by an underdog. I suggest that the
spread in their next game was weak. They faced the Dolphins as -11
point favorites. They beat the Dolphins by 14 points. Had you bet
the 49ers you have two legs of a 10 point teaser covered.
This is the primary thing I look for when I am searching for team to put
in a teaser. I have several other factors I look for as well. I
will take an elite team coming off a bye week for example. If an
elite team blows out an opponent, say they beat the spread by more
then 22 points, I expect them to come back down to earth. I will
fade them in this case. Each of these indicators is weighted.
Last year I used chasing systems. I did this primarily because I did not
have faith in my ability to pick at a winning percentage. I also had
a small number of bets so even if I was nailing a high percentage my
ROI would have been small. As the season progressed I realized that
my 10 point teaser system was outperforming everything else I was
doing. About midway through I decided to focus on it exclusivlely.
My picks for individual legs of the teasers were at 93%. If my math
is correct you need to hit 81.8% to break even. (That is why they
are called sucker bets). I backtested 2011 and my picks were at 91%.
Keep in mind that even though this percentage is high, when you mix
one loser into the 3 legs it produces a losing bet. If that one loser
is mixed into several bets it produces several losers.
My success rate was so high I decided to try an experiment. I took my
picks and I started to mix and match them. Ideally speaking I needed
8 teams per week. I could not always get 8 teams but that was my
target. I would mix and match these 8 teams into 10 different 10
point teasers. The idea was to minimize my exposure to any single
team and maximize profits when all 8 hit, which was not an uncommon
occurrence. I assigned each team a number; 1 - 8. Below is the matrix I use to create the teasers.
11172 22274
23344 73485
37555 66868
In week 2 my picks were:
- PIT
- DEN
- GB
- BAL
(fade)- CLE
(fade)- ARI
(fade)- STL
(fade)- NYJ
(fade)
You take these teams and plug them into the matrix I posted above. PIT, DEN, GB would be your first teaser. PIT, GB, STL (fade) would be
your second teaser, etc.
ARI beat the spread an created a losing leg. This caused 3 bets to lose,
while the rest of them won. I went 7-3 and made a small profit.
Had ARI been in my 1 spot instead of 6 the matrix would have gone 6-4. This will be the most common occurrence.
I had 6 weeks where all 8 teams hit. Each time this happens the bankroll increases by 41%. A 1 team loss is a small profit. My profits were huge in 2012 because I compounded six 41% gains. I had several
smaller gains as well.
2 team losses can vary from 5-5 to 2-8. and it goes down from there.
Back tests have shown this system to work but the back testing is flawed. It does not account for the emotion of putting real money on the line. There are decisions I might have made differently in a real
life situation. Because of this I opted to stop backtesting and try
this experiment in real time.
This is the maiden voyage of this new system. Best of luck to all and may 2013 be your best year yet.
Last edited by arpeggiomeister; 08-28-13 at 12:11 PM. Reason: Poor line up from copy and pasted document
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Because this system is reactionary my first picks will not come until week 2
Interesting matrix idea man. I like the idea of it, but the thing I'm a little unsure of is picking 8 different teams. I like to keep it simple, and merely bet the 3 spreads I feel most strongly about. But I do like your idea. For week 1 I went with Ravens +18.5, Cardinals +15.5, and Cowboys +7.5. I'm sure I can speak for both of us when I say We plan to make a KILLING this year! We exchanged a lot of good ideas last year and definitely got the hang of betting 10 point teasers, even if for just a few weeks. Now we have the whole year! I can't wait to discuss games, exchange opinions, brainstorm, and ultimately make money this year man. Lets fukkin go!
Thanks brother. Yes 8 teams seems like a lot, but the it depends largely on what happens. I have been studying the reactions people have to different situations. I will say that this could simply be a trend that I am looking at, but the numbers I produced from following this from te last two years are staggering.
I power rank every team in teh NFL. I have 3 classes: Elite, Average, Dogs. I then look for upsets within each of these 3 classes. If an elite team loses to the spread I look to tease them the next week. The bigger the loss the stronger the indication. An elite team coming off a bye is usually a strong bet.
An underdog who beats the spread is a good fade for the next week. The bigger the upset the better the fade.
If an elite team beats the spread by 22+ points you should look to fade them. This is not as strong as the indicators above so it depends on the matchup, but you should expect them to come back to earth. Same is true in reverse, the dogs that get beat by 30 or 40 points usually snap back in line.
It is all about understanding how the spread balances thing out. I believe it actually depends on people going to too far in one direction or another. I am able to pick 8 teams because I have a lot of these indicators and most of the time I can find 8 teams that fit into at least one of these categories..
I have an interesting idea that I am sure will be very controversial that has to do with two team parlays. Let's use the opening game for example. Den was -9.5 last I checked. This is just a stab, but let's say you think if this game goes under that it favors the Ravens. Place 3 bets:
1. Den/over
2. Bal/over
3.Bal/under
The only combination you do not have is Den/under. You have a 75% chance of winning this bet just randomly. If the odds favor the Ravens covering then your 75% goes up. I have had some sick results backtesting this.
It is only a 20% gain but I am nailing so many of them that the 20% gains add up quick.
Very very interesting analysis as always. Like I said last year, I totally agree with your analysis of public interest affecting the spread. The spread means nothing. The spread is merely just the number that bookies put out to get equal action on both sides. That's how they make their money. Like that Dolphins 49ers game last year. Spread was -10 or something. Realistically it should've been higher, but any higher and it would've put more action on the dolphins. So the spread was only 10, and it was the perfect game for guys like us to nail with a 10 point tease.
How do you rank the teams exactly? Do you have like 6 elite, 20 average and 6 dogs?
I have 8 Elite teams and two alternates. I try to have one for each division. I do the same thing for the dogs.Originally Posted by wolvesguy89
My list this year is as follows. This is subject to change as the season progresses.
Elite:
Den, SF, Sea, Hou, Bal, Atl, Was, No, NE, GB
Dogs:
Oak, Phi, NYJ, Buf, Ten, Ari, Jac, Cle, TB, KC
The rest are my average teams. This year is different in that the Elite teams are not so far above the rest of the field that they are untouchable. The dogs are much better then in years past. Phi has a lot of talent and could come flying off the dog list. NE used to sit on top of my elite list year after year, but they could slip into the average teams this year. I will have to see how Brady does without all of his main weapos from last year. I had a harder time making this list this year then in any year past. I think there is a lot more parity this year then in years past.
This is my list. I periodically check this against the lists online. ESPN is the main one I check, but I find others as well. The entire point is to figure out where the public's head is at when the spread comes out. The jets have been sitting at the bottom of the list but I think they are better then people give them credit for. I expect there to be some value in their lines. We shall see. Preseason is so misleading. I need to see some play that actually counts before I can truly guage these teams. My list will likely change before the season is through.
Gotta take KC and TB off the dogs list! They made major acquisitions in the offseason and will definitely be contenders this year
Any time you make a list it will be controversial. This list is weighted, Oak being the worst and TB being the best on the list. TB and KC are both on the cusp. They are the two alternates.
The way I came up with this list is I went through each game of the regular season and made a prediction to the outcome. If I could not decide what way it would go then I circled the game and counted it as 1/2 win. I did this with every team. KC and TB are right where they are supposed to be on this list. The only way they will make it off this list is if they win a game I thought they were going to lose. That being said I think there are a lot of teams that could move on my list.
Phi, Pit, NE, MIN, etc., Things are very different for these teams this year. I can speculate all I want but will not truly know until the season gets underway.
The Patriots will be really hard to guage until week 3 or 4. They face the Bills and Jets in their first two meetings. That will not tell me squat. They face the Buccs and Falcons. Those games should tell us where they are really at. I think the offense is weaker this year. No Gronk, Hernandez, or Welker. If they can beat the Falcons at home then I have underestimated this team. If it goes the other way then I may officially pull the Pats off from the elite list and demote them to average.
KC is on their way up. So is TB, MIN, STL, ARI, and hell, even JAC looked much improved with Chad Henne calling the signals. The dogs are not the same as years past. It was not that long ago that you could count on the Redskins to suck. The Raiders still suck. The Lions could actually sneak into the playoffs, who would of thought that 3 years ago???? On the other side, the Steelers are off my elite list for the first time. They should have come off it last year, but keeping them there actrually made me considerable money. I had them in several 10 point teasers and despite losing more then I thought they would, they were always in it. I covered the majority of the time with them.
There is so much parity this year that there is very little seperation between the Dogs and even some of the Elite. The very top of the Elite should dominate while the very bottom of the Dogs should suck, but I expect the picture to be a lot foggier this year. Will it be a year for the Dogs? It just might!
Parlay Experiment Pick 1:
I am taking the opening game BAL vs DEN. The line was -9 and the o/u was 48. I have created a matrix and placed 3 parlay bets.
I took:
BAL +9 o48
BAL -9 u48
DEN -9 o48
Each bet is $50 to win $132. I expect to win one of these and have $182 for a gain of $32. The bankroll for this little experiment is $300.
There are only 4 possible outcomes and I chose to eliminate Den -9 u48. If you do this randomly you will get crushed, so you must do some handicapping. I think the Ravens have value here. I favor them to cover the spread. I think the Broncos win this game but the Ravens will stay in it. If the Broncos beat the spread I think the game will go over 48 so I chose to eliminate the DEN under as the most unlikely scenario for this game.
If I win I will compound my winnings. I will make up to 5 attempts. If all 5 hit I will gain 74% on my bankroll. I will try to get a 1:00pm game, 4:00pm, 8:00pm, and the Monday night game. If I can not make a solid pick I have no reservations about sitting out any games. I will assess the bankroll at the end of the week, cut it in half and do the same process over.
This is a very interesting strategy you have here. So, in essence, you are looking at which teams beat/lose to the spread each week, and either bet ON the team or FADE the team depending on if they were the favorite or dog. I will definitely be watching! Have you done anything similar in the other sports?
Husky, yes I think you have the idea. You must remember that there are other factors as well, but this is the primary thing I look for. It is not simply if they get beat. It is by how much. There is a psychology behind the number. That psychology is what I am interested in. When the public gets burned they back off. My theory is that if you can catch them in this state of fear you can make money off from it.
For example, the line for the Patriots has been growing ever since it came out. I believe I could have got this game for -7 at one time like a couple of months ago. It is all the way up to -12 in some books now. If they win the game by a touchdown that is an upset, but not a severe one. I would look to bet the Patriots the next week, but I might take other games with stronger indicators. On the other hand, if an anomaly happens and Buffalo were to smoke the Patriots 31-0 like they did a few years back, this is a strong indicator. The public sees a team that is supposed to be crappy thrash an elite team. You get two for the price of one in this situation. You fade Buffalo the next week and you play New England.
A crappy team will go back to being crappy. An elite team has the heart of a lion and will take it out on their next opponent. They don't want to beat their next opponent after a loss like this, they want to crucify them and prove to the world that the last game was just a fluke.
I use 10 point teasers to get an extra cushion and I can not tell you how many times those 10 points have made the difference between a losing bet and a winning one. The teaser is the key component to making this work.
I have tried this in the NBA but the teasers are smaller and I had to pay more juice. It worked while I was doing it but I abandoned the strategy in January to try something else. I am really excited to see how my 2 team parlay strategy works out. If it goes well then we can apply this theory to the NBA with ease.
Trying to apply this to NHL or MLB is tricky. They do not have point spreads like the NBA or NFL. Because of this your risk/reward fluctuates from game to game. I am sure it can still work but it is hard to make any projections or know exactly what your win ratio needs to be to make a profit.
Last edited by arpeggiomeister; 08-31-13 at 11:17 AM.
You have got me thinking. I have tried some different money management things with my picks and perhaps 8 teams is overkill. When I realized I was picking at a percentage rate that could make a profit I knew all I needed to do was increase the number of bets and I could make a profit. This would eliminate the risk of using a chasing system.
I tried something else that has produced awesome results, but to actually put it in play would be terrifying. It is simple, risk half your bankroll on each play, readjusting for wins or losses each time. This is extremely volatile but compounds quickly when you get on a winning streak. I am reluctant to tell people the numbers I am getting because they are just huge; 1,000%+!!!! The upside is you can make a lot of money, but if you go on a losing streak your bankroll would get desimated in teh blink of an eye. You would not actually go broke because you are dividing your BR in half after each time, but watching a $10,000 BR go to $312 with a 5 game losing streak would be pretty dis-heartening. The flip-side of this is if you hit a 5 game winning streak you would watch a $10,000 bankroll go to over $55,000.
My results from last year were good enough to use this approach and make some serious bank. It is still a very risky strategy.
I am always trying to think outside the box. I found a way to create big numbers, but I hear you in that it makes total sense to keep your money on only a handful of teams that you feel strongly about. In the end, results are what matters. We are in this to make money. I appreciate your feedback.
Good stuff here arp. So could you provide an example of what you were doing in NBA that was going well? And what us your idea for this upcoming NBA season? I assume your main focus will be using your strategies for NBA and NFL only?
Also, on your 10-point teasers, do they need to cross key numbers? Do you cross the zero?
Sorry for all the questions, but I assume you stick to NFL and not NCAAF as the NFL lines are sharper?
Every point you gain from a teaser puts the odds closer in your favor. There is a lot of talk about key numbers such as 3, 7, and crossing zero. Forget it; it is a load of crap.
The Saints are -3 point favorites to beat the Falcons. If you take them in a 10 point teaser they change to +7 underdogs. If the actual score comes out that the Falcons win 35-31 your teased +7 Saints bet covers. I have created more winners this way then you can imagine.
Last year I had the Steelers as one of my elite teams. In hindsight they should have been demoted to an average team, but I rode them to pay dirt week after week. I teased through the zero many times. People will throw their numbers and theories at you becaue they read something out of a book and think they know something. I have the best rebuttal anyone can give you. It's called 148% ROI. I did it for everyone to see, and the thread is still up on this site. I apologize if that sounds a little egotistical, but it upsets me that a lot of people buy into this idea. They are killing potential bets that could make them richer if they would just dump this foolish dogma.
Every point you gain from teasing is one less point the team has to cover. Furthermore, the team could care less about covering the spread, they are there to win the game, that is it. For that very reason I would argue that teasing through zero is probably the best thing you could ever do if you believe that team is going to win.
Last edited by arpeggiomeister; 09-01-13 at 02:17 PM.
That is not the reason, but it was a good guess. I stick with the NFL because the information is far more easily accessible. I am sure I could find the info on college as well, but I type in NFL power rankings I immediately pull up 100s of results. If I want to see how teams performed against the spread in the past I go to Goldsheet an pull the information up.
If the college lines are softer there is more room for a sharp bettor to take advantage. I would love to eventually put a team of handicappers together and totally crush it in multiple sports. I stick with the NFL because it is what I am most familiar with.
Please do not worry about asking questions. I am not some all-knowing guru, but if my ideas help you out that is awesome. Perhaps we can work together this season and make some money. The more brainpower we have working together on this the better.
I experimented briefly with the NBA last year. I was using the same main concepts I used in the NFL. What I found was that the teasers were smaller, and I had to pay more juice. I would often get more value by creating moneyline parlays instead of teasers.
Say the Spurs were favored by -13. Instead of teasing them I would grab other teams I liked as well and bet them in a parlay using the money lines instead of the spread. It got pretty ridiculous, at times I was betting teams -1500, putting them into a parlay got my return back to something decent. I would judge the parlay by how many points I was shaving off the spreads vs how much return I was getting.
I stopped doing this to try out the Sports Cash System that you see banner ads for on this site. That was a disaster. Things started out well, but the system was based on a 4 tier Martingale System. I have no problem with chase systems, as long as the system works. They had 4 system failures in the time I was with them; Jan to May. I would advise people to stay away from them.
Anyways, the money line parlays managed to tack on another 50% to my Bankroll before I started with the other. I had stalled out for a bit, I would win some bets and then give it right back. I was using a chase system at the time and I hit the 5th tier 3 times in like just over a couple of weeks. I thought I would die of a heart attack if I kept that up so I looked for something different.
I have new ideas this year that are taking me away from chasing systems. The 2 team parlay strategy I mentioned is my latest. I tested it this weekend on College Football and I won all 4 bets. I had to rely on the handicapping skills of the free picks released on this site for I know little about college football. I have been using the over/under bets combined with a bet ats to create a 2 tier parlay.
There are 4 possible combinations Favorite/Over, Favorite/Under, Underdog/Over, Underdog/Under. If you bet all 4 you will lose money because of the juice. If you bet $50 you should win $132. By risking $150 two tiers will lose and one should hopefully win. This is a gain of $32. This is a 21.3% gain. Just shooting darts at the wall you start with a 75% chance of winning the bet. The idea is to eliminate the most unlikely scenario. If you think the favorite is the most likely to win then you take the favorite/over and favorite/under. You now must choose if you think the game is more likely to go over or under. Let's say you think it will be a defensive struggle so you choose the under. Your last bet will be the Underdog/Under. By making these decisions about what is more likely or less likely you are shifting the odds of 75% to a much higher probability like 85% or even 90%. This is the part that relies on your skills as a handicapper.
In a completely random scenario you should lose 1 out of every 4 bets. I managed to win all 4 of my bets yesterday using this strategy. If I can stretch this out so I am losing 1 out of 5, or better then this strategy will make money. The return is small, but with a great number of these bets you can use compound interest to make a lot of money.
Last edited by arpeggiomeister; 09-01-13 at 03:34 PM.
Thanks for the info. Arp. I would love to see your plays and strategies in this thread if you are willing to post. I think your mindset is a different way of looking at things, and I think its a great way to attack this venture. I look forward to what we can come up with.
I will be updating this thread as I go. You can also check my blog on www.theultimateguidetochasing.com. I need to do some overhauling to the site. I still have a banner ad up for the Sports Cash System. Those guys are on my shitlist.
It is my plan to demonstrate publicly that my theories work. If I am wrong then I am just another yahoo posting losing picks on this site, but if I am right then you are witnessing a discovery similar to card counting. A deck of cards has a memory. Every card dealt has an effect on the outcome of hands yet to be played. I posit that the same is true of the point spread system. Us humans have a memory. When we see something unexpected happen we react to it. If you understand the how and why of peoples' reactions then you can make money from it.
Thanks Arp. I will be following!
When you say compound interest, are you just recalculating your unit size after each win? And how many 2-teamgames parlays do you usually play on a given day?
I hate when people say don't tease through zero. Don't teaser Over/unders. What a load of shit. I had some idiot last year scold me for teasing a total, and I won while he bet the actual number and lost.
I gotta disagree with you a little on teasing to key numbers man. For the most part I like teasing favorites of -2.5 or less to +7.5 or more. It's the ultimate insurance policy basically. If the spread is less than 3, you know it's probably gonna be a close game. One that will probably be decided by a field goal, maybe even a TD. And in the even that the team you picked does lose by that TD, you're in the clear. Key numbers do have significance. Like for instance if a spread was 5, you would definitely be better off teasing the dog rather than the favorite. +5 doesn't cover losing by a TD, and +15 covers a two TD loss. For week 1 I have the Cardinals +15.5 and I am absolutely in love with that bet.
You know that I'm not one to disagree with you, just throwing in my two cents.
Last edited by wolvesguy89; 09-02-13 at 04:20 AM.
What kind of price are you paying for these 10-point teases and for how many teams?
Are you a mad scientist Appregiomeister? I picture you in some ramshackle garage space, wearing a lab coat a la Dr. Emmet Brown, amidst a landscape of beakers, test tubes, and burners emitting little plumes of smoke, and franticly scrawling numeric algorithms on a greaseboard long into the night.
In regards to your parlay matrix getting +264 (betting $50 to win $132).
Assuming the line for both the spread and total is efficient and each outcome has a 25% chance of winning. I know you say you can cap this better, but let's see how much you have to beat it by to be a long-term winner:
IF THIS HAPPENS || YOUR NET GAIN
BAL+9 / O48 - Win $132 | Lose $100 = +$32
BAL+9 / U48 - Win $132 | Lose $100 = +$32
DEN-9 / O48 - Win $132 | Lose $100 = +$32
DEN-9 / U48 - Win $0 | Lose $150 = -150
75% of the time you win $32 (.75*32) = +$24
25% of the time you lose $150 (.25*150) = -37.5
Therefore, you are losing $13.50 each time you make this bet if lines are efficient. So how often do you need to win at these odds to have a +ROI?
The answer is about 82.5% (.825*32 = +26.4), (.175*150 = 26.25) which is a 7.5% edge. Where are you getting the numbers that show that your system of analysis can beat the books by 7.5%?
I remember talking with you last year about that and having a good laugh when you won! I have no problem with differing opinions as long as it is done in a respectful manner. I can't stand egomaniacs that have to prove they are the best handicappers and shit on other people's ideas just to prove their superiority. You are not doing that.
Last year when I was doing this, my two major concerns were:
1. was there an upset?
2. by how many points?
I am looking for things that go out of balance and I expect them to return to balance. This is why I call this the Pendulum Cycle Theory. It swings back and forth from undervalued to overvalued and back, driven by our over-reactions to what we are seeing. Whenever a team wins or loses to the spread by 30+ points things are extremely out of balance.
I will give you a few examples.
1. Week 4 NYJ loses to the spread by 30.5. Week 5 they beat the spread by 3.5
2. Week 5 BUF loses ATS by 32. Week 6 they win by 8.5
3. Week 10 Miami loses ATS by 41. Week 11 they lose ATS by 2. If you teased them you won.
4. Week 3 SD loses ATS by 30, next week they win by 15.5
5. Week 8 NE wins ats by 31. They have a bye week, week 10 they lose ats by 5.
This cycle is consistent. Sometimes it takes longer for things to reach balance which is why I used chasing systems last year. SF won by 30.5 ats in week 4 and then 32 the next week before losing 31 ats in week 5. SEA wins 48 ats in week 14. It takes 3 weeks for them to come back down to earth. However, whether the cycle is short or long it always returns to a balance point. I consider balance to be anywhere within 10 points ats.
When an elite team loses ATS I take them in a teaser. GB lost ATS by 5 in week 3, this set them up for me to tease them. Week 6 they lose by 6.5, COVER, next week they lose by 9 ats, COVER, next week they win 22 ATS cover.
Had you taken GB in straight bets you would have lost your shirt, but since I was teasing them I made a shit ton of cash. The Steelers were my gravy train last year. I had them on my elite list. They did not perform like an elite team on the stat sheets, but for this theory they performed beautifully. I look to take teams coming off the bye week as well, so if you include week 5 the Steelers gave me 8 weeks where they would have won inside a 10 point teaser and no losses.
This theory does not work every time, but 93% of the teams I chose last year covered in a 10 point teaser. I put absolutely zero thought into key numbers. Would that improve my game? Perhaps.
I am the first to admit this could be nothing more then a trend, but I do not think so. I believe this is caused by psychological reactions. If an elite team falls, especially to a team that is supposed to suck people back off. Meanwhile the team wants to prove to the world that this was nothing but a fluke. An crap team like the Rams were last year sees playing an elite team as their Superbowl. They know they do not have a snowball's chance in hell of making the playoffs so they give an elite team everything they have got. If that elite team is not taking them seriously it is a recipe for an upset. The team still sucks but when the public sees them topple a top tier team they give them respect the next week. This creates a good fade situation.
It may sound complicated but it is really simple. You look for things to go out of balance and use 10 point teasers expecting things to return to balance in the next game. The more out of balance things are the stronger the bet is. That is my approach.
couple of questions, what do you do in bye weeks? do you ever look at totals and finally how do you pick the matrix order meaning what spot each team will be?
Actually my ideas are based on crowd psychology more then the math. I try to find an angle and exploit it using the different tools available. I fail most of the time, but every once in a while I find an idea that works. My 10 point teaser strategy brought in a nice return last year.
My success is due to me being willing to try things despite what others say. I came to this idea through using chase systems. I had countless people tell me I was daft for looking into chasing; that it does not work. Because I walked my own path I learned that they were wrong. Chase systems can work, but you need a positive EV to make them work. I could go on about this, but I do not want this discussion to be about chasing. Even with a positive EV they are risky which is why I moved on.
My main point though is that I would have never discovered the theory I am using now had I not done the chasing experiment. Chasing is based on an idea called "the gambler's fallacy". It is the belief that previous outcomes will somehow effect the odds on the future outcome. In games that are completely random this is completely false. A roulette wheel landing on 19 five times in a row is a statistical anomaly, however the odds are exactly the same for 19 to come up in the next spin as they were in the first.
The Pendulum Cycle Theory essentially states the gambler's fallacy does apply to sports betting. What happens in previous games effects the outcome, not of the game itself, but what the spread will be in the next game. Favorites win the majority of the time. If there were no spreads everyone would bet the favorites. This is obvious. WHen you introduce the spread now people have to think twice, but I suggest to you that not all spreads are created equal.
In week 8 the Patriots were -8 point favorites to beat the Rams. The Bears were -8 point favorites to beat the the Panthers. It is the exact same spread. There are many that would suggest that the odds are exactly the same on these two games but I tell you nothing could have been further from the truth.
Chicago had come off a 32 point win ATS and then a bye week. They were completely overvalued going into this game. The Patriots had lost ATS in there last two game so they were undervalued when they faced the Rams. Exact same spread, exact same 11/10 odds, complete opposite ends of the spectrum according to the Pendulum Cycle Theory. Hade you faded the Bears and bet the Patriots you won both matches straight up, let alone a 10 point teaser. I use the teasers for extra insurance.
Thanks for showing the math, and for being respectful. I will answer your question in a couple of parts.
Where do I get my numbers that show I can beat the books by 7.5%? I do backtests. I have been trying to apply the same concepts I use on the 10 point teasers to this idea.
Can I beat the 7.5%? My initial results were looking good, but my backtest is starting to fall apart now. I do not have a program so I do these tests manually which is a tedious process. I will continue testing to see if I can tweak it and make it work, but it appears that I hit a streak of good luck with my initial tests. Nothing is consistently working. That is why I call these things experiments.
They are 3 team teasers 120/100.
According to my math I must win the entire teaser 54.5% of the time to break even, and each individual leg approximately 81.8%. Last year I was able to hit 93% for individual legs. That is hardly conclusive evidence, even 10 years would still be too small a sample to claim it works for certain, but it works well enough so that I am backing it with a real bankroll this year.
You seem to have a good handle on the math. I would appreciate your help if you would be interested in developing this theory. The Pendulum Cycle Theory is my main focus. Teasers, parlays, matrixes, chase systems, these are all attempts to use the info I am getting from this theory. They are the tools, not the theory itself. So far 10 point teasers have worked the best for me. I have backtested 5 years and although they fluctuate I have maintained an average above 81.8%. I believe my low was 86%.
Bye weeks: If an elite team is coming off a bye week you should play them. There are a couple of exception and you have to trust your gut in these situations. The first is if they blew out a team right before the bye. If they beat the spread by 30+ before the bye steer clear of the game. I am leary of underdogs after bye weeks. The only way I will take them is if they are completely out of balance either over or under the spread by 22 or more points. I am very cautious of those and will take an elite team with a small loss ATS before I will take that situation.
I started tweaking with totals and I feel the same rules apply. I have nothing to backtest against since I only tracked the spreads last year, but if the totals are way out of whack I would expect them to come back into balance just like the spreads do. If it is way over then go under the next week, if it is way under go over. I would only do this with a 10 point teaser and I think you can only tease the over/under on one leg. I have no backtests to say if this works well or not so proceed at your own risk. That is the best answer I can give.
How do I choose the order of the matrix. This is a new idea I hatched only about a month ago. I have not tweaked it into perfection and there could be much room for improvement. In the 8 team matrix I suggested the 6 spot and 8 spot only come up 3 times while the rest come up 4. I would put your weakest picks in these spots to minimize your exposure. Had I designed it a little better it would have been 7 and 8 but oh well. The idea was to repeat as little as possible so that if one leg fails it does not completely wipe you out. A one leg fail in this process still gives you a small return. You will either go 7-3 if your 6 or 8 fails, or 6-4 if any other spot fails. Two or more losses and you start losing.
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