[wolvesguy89]

Solid gold like always, from my man Arpeggiomeister

[husky]

Bye weeks: If an elite team is coming off a bye week you should play them. There are a couple of exception and you have to trust your gut in these situations. The first is if they blew out a team right before the bye. If they beat the spread by 30+ before the bye steer clear of the game. I am leary of underdogs after bye weeks. The only way I will take them is if they are completely out of balance either over or under the spread by 22 or more points. I am very cautious of those and will take an elite team with a small loss ATS before I will take that situation.

I started tweaking with totals and I feel the same rules apply. I have nothing to backtest against since I only tracked the spreads last year, but if the totals are way out of whack I would expect them to come back into balance just like the spreads do. If it is way over then go under the next week, if it is way under go over. I would only do this with a 10 point teaser and I think you can only tease the over/under on one leg. I have no backtests to say if this works well or not so proceed at your own risk. That is the best answer I can give.

How do I choose the order of the matrix. This is a new idea I hatched only about a month ago. I have not tweaked it into perfection and there could be much room for improvement. In the 8 team matrix I suggested the 6 spot and 8 spot only come up 3 times while the rest come up 4. I would put your weakest picks in these spots to minimize your exposure. Had I designed it a little better it would have been 7 and 8 but oh well. The idea was to repeat as little as possible so that if one leg fails it does not completely wipe you out. A one leg fail in this process still gives you a small return. You will either go 7-3 if your 6 or 8 fails, or 6-4 if any other spot fails. Two or more losses and you start losing.

I really like your matrix idea, however, I think that 8 teams causes way too much exposure. From what I gather, you bet on or against teams if they lose to the spread by 11+ points? Otherwise, you bet ELITE teams if they lose ATS correct? What if you lowered your teams to 3-4 per week? Just a thought. Thanks Arp!

[husky]

Also, I would guess that your teaser idea (10 points for football and 8 points for basketball) would only work in the NFL and NBA as there are so many college teams in NCAAB/NCAAF?

[arpeggiomeister]

I have different rules for different situations and nothing is refined to an exact science. The numbers are just my best guess as to when the public breaks psychologically. I will go over the basics starting the strongest indicators to the weakest.

Elite Team Guidelines:

When an elite team loses ATS take them the next week. The larger the loss the stronger the indicator is for the next week. This is my primary tool for creating the teaser.

I almost always play an elite team coming off a bye week. There are two things that will stop me from making this play. If the elite team is facing another elite team I might talk myself out of it. This goes from a strong indicator to a weak one so I look to see if there are better plays. The second thing that will stop me is if they blew out a team right before the bye. This sits in the public's mind for 2 weeks and they will tend to push the line too far. You can either avoid the game, or if you are really ballsy, fade them.

I look next to the underdogs. I treat them almost exactly the same as elites but in reverse. If a crap-ass team beats the spread I fade them the next week. In straight up bets ATS the results are not obvious, but when you tease them it will make you say OMG!! I have already told you about the Steelers being my gravy train elite team of last year. I would have to say my golden underdog of last year was the Browns. I went 8-1 fading them last year. I would fade them after every time the beat the spread. The only time this failed me was in week 14. I faded them again in week 15 and like clockwork it snapped right back into balance.

This indicator is equally as strong as the elites losing ATS, possibly even stronger. To give you an idea of how good this is I'll throw out some stats out to ya from the dogpound last year.

Oak - 4-0
KC - 4-1
BUF - 6-0
MIA - 6-0
JAC - 6-0
CAR - 6-2
STL - 8-2

I did not make these stats up or massage them in anyway. If you do the work you can see this anomaly for yourself. My stats were pulled off from goldsheet.com These stats should send chills down your spine. That is 40 wins and only 5 losses. That is an 88.9% success rate when I only need to be at 81.8% to break even. That stat goes even higher when you get to pick and choose which games go into your teasers.

Average teams that go out of balance ATS by 12 to 15 points in either direction should correct and come back to within 10 points of a push. If they go over, fade them, if they go under bet them. I hardly ever make it to the average teams because I always track the elites and the dogs first because it is those teams that will be involved in the majority of upsets.

Just remember that it is not the games themselves that are out of whack, it is our expectations. If we put an elite team up on a pedestal we tend to exaggerate how good they are. We therefore exaggerate the point spreads and become shocked when they fail to cover these exaggerated lines. The exact opposite is true of underdogs. Most people think that the Jaguars and Jets suck balls. Well on any given Sunday these lowly teams can beat the 49ers, Packers, Broncos, etc. It is not likely, but it can happen. To be a player on the worst team in the league is an amazing accomplishment. You have to be one hell of an athlete to make it on any team in the NFL. People tend to forget that these crappy teams are filled with good athletes. Our image of how bad the team is is way out of line with what they really are. It is because of this fact that the opportunity exists to exploit these misconceptions. The point spread will always balance out, but what people don't realize is that it's the public, us, that are doing the balancing, not the bookies. They do an excellent job of gauging where the public is at, but they are far from perfect. Look no further then the NE vs BUF match this week. The spread has been all over the board. It opened at -7.5 and went as high as -12. Last I checked the line is all the back down to -8. If teh bookies were perfect these line adjustment would not be necassary. The fact that these lines will move like this should tell you something. This is a free market system which is subject to the same rules of supply and demand that any other market is (ie the stock market or real estate) Since the same rules apply, the same manias take place. These manias are called bubble phenomenons. They are the backbone of this entire theory.

[arpeggiomeister]

Also, I would guess that your teaser idea (10 points for football and 8 points for basketball) would only work in the NFL and NBA as there are so many college teams in NCAAB/NCAAF?

I do not have enough experience in college to tell you one way or the other, but the same rules should apply. The fact that there are so many teams will only serve to make the lines less efficient. That creates an opportunity. The question is will these less efficient lines mean it takes more time for a bubble to burst or will it create even more volatility? More volatillity is what we want. The more the public over reacts to what they see the bigger the opportunity is to take advantage.

I have found it better to combine NBA teams into moneyline parlays then using teasers. I am just not getting enough points, and the juice is higher. I will take a -13 point favorite and bet the moneyline. I will combine it with others. One team may only have a -7 spread, but generally speaking I am able to knock off more points then I can by teasing them. If they meet the criteria, which is generally the same as the football rules, these parlays will produce winners. I did well before I abandoned it to try something else. I should have stuck with what I was doing because the something else turned disastrous. I was looking to promote the Sports Cash System. I can not sell something unless I believe in the product so I tested them out for 4 or 5 months. Bad idea!!!

I am a bit disgusted to see this website plugging these yahoos so hard. I still have the banner ad up on my site but I will be pulling it down. These guys not only have the banner ads, now they are plugging them in every video. If it worked I would be all for it, but these guys had 4 system failures in the time I was with them. Now they are claiming they have not had a loss in 6 months. The last system failure was less then 6 months ago.

Anyways, I abandoned them and got back to what I was doing.

To address whether I should reduce my numbers to 3 or 4 a week instead of 8, I am going through this debate myself. I did precisely that last year. I took the best of the best and left the rest. I used a chasing system only 3 tiers deep and made 148% ROI. When I saw how accurate this system was I fooled around with different ideas to see if I could increase my numbers. By creating such a large matrix I can place 10 bets per week. This adds up to a large number of bets. My numbers must stay above 81.8% for this to work. If I am placing over 150 bets for the season there is no need to have the added risk of a chasing system. When I backtested using this idea in place of chasing my numbers exploded. I swelled from 148% ROI to over 650%. It is simply because I was able to increase the number of bets.

Will that mess with the integrity of the system because I am trying to overreach by picking 8 teams? This is the main question you are trying to address. My backtests say no, I only have 5 seasons worth of data. For my data to be conclusive I would need a sample size of at least 10,000 games, if not more. 30,000 would be much better. With only 256 games a year I can not even come close to that. I am forced to try and draw conclusions from tiny samples. This leads to the danger of concluding that something works when in reality it was nothing more then a trend.

I understand what you are saying and you very well could be right. However, given the numbers from my backtest I am willing to give it a shot this year in hopes that I can recapture the magic of last year. 650% ROI sounds unbelievable but my backtest for 2010 dwarfed this number. Had I started with $4,500 I would have had over $100,000 by the end of the 2010 regular season. My worst year with these backtests was 2008, and I still managed to more then double my money. This is because of the large number of bets.

Card counters have a very small advantage over the house. Most can only get a 1% to 2% edge over the house. So how is it that the MIT team was able to take the casinos for several millions of dollars? It is because they used the law of large numbers. They played thousands of hands of blackjack. That tiny edge was more then enough to make a fortune. I am attempting to apply the same principle. My edge is greater then theirs was so the numbers should add up even quicker.

[husky]

Awesome arp. Thank you for your insight. So in essence, I should find a reputable site that provides power rankings on a weekly basis and focus on the top 10 teams and the bottom 10 teams. When a bottom 10 team beats the spread by 10+ points, I fade them with a 10-pointcouple teaser the next week. And forfavorites the top 10 elite teams , they just need to lose ATS and take them the following week? Something close to this?

[Renegades]

The essence of this strategy is based on contrarian thinking. The nfl is certainly a contrarian sport so it makes sense

[MobFade]

I think a lot of the chase/progressive stuff you're talking about implementing is not sustainable, but yes it can produce incredible results in the short term while gaming variance. Matrices/scalping/middling could work if you can sit at your computer all day on 20 different books, predict where lines are going/chase steam, and shop the best lines at the best prices. The thing with this is ain't nobody got time for that unless it's automated, and you could turn a profit just betting ATS if you were that good without any of the gimmicks. That was the point I was trying to make earlier about beating the books for 7.5%. If you can maintain a 57.5% win rate through capping quit worrying about matrices ... sell your mom's house and take that money to vegas.

I'm not really on board right now with much other than the 2-team 6-point teasers crossing 3 and 7. The math existed in the past to back this up, but as with all trends that become the conventional wisdom, there has probably been a reversal. Books juicing their lines and setting teaser-protect lines that you see like +1-130 or -9-130, single leg loss counts as card loss, etc. Top Bet is the only place I have access to these at -110 and they block a lot of the games that qualify. Look up Wong Teasers if you don't know why that was a profitable wager, at least in the past.

Now that's not to say that there isn't a loop-hole that can't be found. The sportsbook industry is far from efficient, and there's probably a bunch of small edges you could press for a while. What I'm really interested in is finding meaningful trends, and I think you're definitely on the right track as evidenced by this graph courtesy of sportsinsights.com:

REBOUND.jpg

Hard to see, but the parameters are that in a teams last 3 games, their average scoring margin over their opponents was -1 to -14 points meaning they've been losing. Their opponents average margin of victory is +1 to +7 points in the same time-frame. The public psychology we're exploiting here seems obvious. The results for betting the "-1 to -14" team over the last 6 years is 115-77, 59.9% ATS, and almost more importantly has not posted a losing season. This is further proofed by the fact that our win rate increases (while sample size decreases exponentially) as we increase the number of weeks these numbers maintain themselves.

homedogs.jpg

Above is a great example of the conventional wisdom being almost total trash. Home Dogs get beat 392-416, 48.5% ATS. But below you'll see when it becomes profitable if you only bet Dogs at +6.5 and greater at home. Those beat the spread 116-85, 57.7% ATS and we can extrapolate that home dogs +1 to +6 get crushed 276-331, 45.5% ATS.

HOMEDOG.jpg

I've been coming up with a bunch of these, but back-testing is limited because the data you're using inherently includes the games you're testing against. Bigger samples sizes dilute this effect, but it's still always going to paint a rosy picture if you're testing a "winning" strategy. I'll definitely speculate with you about finding edges to press, but I think for the most part the books have the pricing stuff pretty well figured out with parlays, teasers, etc. In-game betting and technical analysis of these types of graphs to identify trend reversals in the market are the 2 most intriguing angles to me right now.

[MobFade]

Also forgot to mention correlated parlays, which is just the "most likely" leg of what you were doing in the matrices. I think that could be a profitable element to a system for sure.

[SirLancelot7]

Arp you really have me thinking. I have done a similar thing in the past with your theory and had good return but took a few years off. I will jump on the train and begin picking more parlays again. Do you post your picks on here?

[arpeggiomeister]

Awesome arp. Thank you for your insight. So in essence, I should find a reputable site that provides power rankings on a weekly basis and focus on the top 10 teams and the bottom 10 teams. When a bottom 10 team beats the spread by 10+ points, I fade them with a 10-pointcouple teaser the next week. And forfavorites the top 10 elite teams , they just need to lose ATS and take them the following week? Something close to this?

If it is a very bottom team, say like the Oakland Raiders or Jacksonville Jaguars fade them if they beat the spread... ...period. Most of the time they will snap right back to within a 10 point range above or below the spread. You have the right idea.

[arpeggiomeister]

Also forgot to mention correlated parlays, which is just the "most likely" leg of what you were doing in the matrices. I think that could be a profitable element to a system for sure.

Thanks for your very thoughtful response. I hear what you are saying about maintaining a 57 percent average. This system does not produce steady results for straight bets. Last year I got about 57% straight up, but the year before was only 53%. That is still profitable, but barely. However, when you start teasing the lines the pattern becomes clear. 10 point teasers are by far the best thing I have done.

I agree that chasing is good short term, but even with the odds in your favor they have a high risk of ruin.

I am still going to experiment with the parlay matrix, but after testing it for all of 2012 it does not look nearly as good as it did when I started.

I think the same principles could be applied but instead of simply picking the most likely team I also need to decide the most likely scenario for over/under. I am going to test this contrarian theory. If both teams go over by more then say 10 points, expect the next game to go under. I am going back to the drawing board with this one so I will not advise anyone to try it out.

On a final note, I have Stanford Wong's "Sharp Sports Betting". I have read about the key numbers and understand the concept. My only problem with it is that I feel you can get into a situation where you start overthinking things. My approach is based on psychology and I have had a lot of success while completely ignoring key numbers. This approach allows me to be fluid. I am not trying to discredit the theory by any means. Wong is a brilliant gaming theorist. Not only is he a brilliant handicapper, but invented the most accurate system of card counting there is; Wong halves. I feel the same way about Wong halves I do about the key numbers. The Hi Lo system is simple. The Pendulum Cycle Theory is also simple. There may be better ways out there but if something is working for you then you do not really need the more complex systems. They often times do more harm then good. Most people I know that try Wong halves make too many mistakes and would be better off using the Hi Lo count.

[arpeggiomeister]

Arp you really have me thinking. I have done a similar thing in the past with your theory and had good return but took a few years off. I will jump on the train and begin picking more parlays again. Do you post your picks on here?

Yes I will be posting my picks starting in week 2. I may dabble with some games in week one, but I do not really get rolling until I see some upsets that I can fade.

[arpeggiomeister]

The essence of this strategy is based on contrarian thinking. The nfl is certainly a contrarian sport so it makes sense

You are spot on. It is all about seeking when trends will reverse and jumping on them with the best tools you can find to take advantage of it.

[husky]

Great info from all involved in this thread. Thanks for the help arp. I will track your plays and my own plays in a 4-team and 8-team matrix each week. Would you be able to tell me how to make a matrix for 4 teams, 5 teams, 6 teams, and 7 teams so that I can use the given matrix each week depending on the number of plays? Thank you so much again.

[arpeggiomeister]

Great info from all involved in this thread. Thanks for the help arp. I will track your plays and my own plays in a 4-team and 8-team matrix each week. Would you be able to tell me how to make a matrix for 4 teams, 5 teams, 6 teams, and 7 teams so that I can use the given matrix each week depending on the number of plays? Thank you so much again.

I do not have much time to answer this fully right now, but I will get you an answer.

There are two purposes that these matrixes serve. The first is to increase your numbers. Lets say the maximum bet for a 10 point teaser is $1,000 in your book. If you have only 3 teams then you are stuck at $1,000. If you have 4 teams you now have multiple combinations available so you can increase the number of bets and bypass the betting limits.

1 2 3 4
2 3 4 1
3 4 1 2

This is not the total amount of possible combinations, but just in this short example I have shown you 4 combinations which will allow you to get $4,000 in play instead of just $1,000. The greater the number of bets you have out there the more money you can make as long as your percentage stays above the break even point. If you fall below you will simply lose money faster.

The second purpose of the matrix is to diversify your risk. This is why I am into 8 teams. I can sustain a loss and still make a profit in an 8 team matrix. I can not do that with 6 teams and below. A one team loss will result in going 7-3 or 6-4 depending on their position in the matrix. If the losing team wipes out half your bets you lose the juice. 2 teams can wipe out virtually the entire matrix. You can still win a couple but most of your money is gone. In my backtests a one team loss is the most common occurence.

I have to go but I will post the different matrixes either late tonight or tommorrow.

[husky]

Awesome. Thank you arp. The 8-team matrix just scares me, as it is pretty easy to go 0-10 if two teasers lose.

[speedracer122]

Parlay Experiment Pick 1:

I am taking the opening game BAL vs DEN. The line was -9 and the o/u was 48. I have created a matrix and placed 3 parlay bets.

I took:

BAL +9 o48
BAL -9 u48
DEN -9 o48

Each bet is $50 to win $132. I expect to win one of these and have $182 for a gain of $32. The bankroll for this little experiment is $300.

There are only 4 possible outcomes and I chose to eliminate Den -9 u48. If you do this randomly you will get crushed, so you must do some handicapping. I think the Ravens have value here. I favor them to cover the spread. I think the Broncos win this game but the Ravens will stay in it. If the Broncos beat the spread I think the game will go over 48 so I chose to eliminate the DEN under as the most unlikely scenario for this game.

If I win I will compound my winnings. I will make up to 5 attempts. If all 5 hit I will gain 74% on my bankroll. I will try to get a 1:00pm game, 4:00pm, 8:00pm, and the Monday night game. If I can not make a solid pick I have no reservations about sitting out any games. I will assess the bankroll at the end of the week, cut it in half and do the same process over.

instead of parlaying both BAL+9/O48 and DEN-9/O48, wouldn't you get a better payout by just placing 2 units on O48?

[arpeggiomeister]

instead of parlaying both BAL+9/O48 and DEN-9/O48, wouldn't you get a better payout by just placing 2 units on O48?

No. If the game goes under you lose. The point is to cover as many angles as possible to create the highest probability of winning. If I am going to just assume the game is going over I would use a different strategy entirely.

[arpeggiomeister]

First bet is in the bag. I placed a moneyline parlay for Sunday.

NE -450
KC -190
SEA -170
IND -425

This does not have a hedging strategy, just my gut feeling on these games. Not risking a lot, $20 to win $53.

[speedracer122]

No. If the game goes under you lose. The point is to cover as many angles as possible to create the highest probability of winning. If I am going to just assume the game is going over I would use a different strategy entirely.

I see what you're saying, but what if instead of making those 3 parlays you make a 2 unit play on the Over and a 1 unit parlay on BAL+9/U48? Conversely, you could also put down two units on BAL+9 and then a single unit on DEN-9/O48. That way, the only way you lose is still if it goes under and denver covers, but your potential payout from the 2 unit play is higher than what you would get from two separate parlays. Does that make sense?

[arpeggiomeister]

4 team matrix:

1 2 3 4
2 3 4 1
3 4 1 2

5 team matrix:

1 2 3 4 5 1 2
2 3 4 5 1 3 4
3 4 5 1 2 5 6

6 team matrix:

1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3
2 4 3 3 6 3 4 5 1 4
6 6 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 5

I will put up the 7 team matrix momentarily.

[arpeggiomeister]

7 team matrix:

1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3
2 4 3 3 6 3 4 5 1 4
6 6 4 5 7 5 7 6 7 5

I do not have these down to an exact science, but the idea is to strategically place the numbers so they repeat as little as possible. I took the 6 team matrix and replaced one 4,5,and 6.

This is a diversification tactic.

[wolvesguy89]

ANNNNDDDD that's the last time I ever bet on week 1 of the NFL. BAL gets out scored 35-10 in the 2nd half? What a fukkin joke. I'm gonna observe all that I can from this weekend, and next week I'll be ready to go

[arpeggiomeister]

The Ravens lose this matchup by 22 points. This looks like a blow out. They lose by 11 points ATS, which is not nearly as shocking as the score looks. The Ravens are facing the Browns in week 2. At this moment I am looking to play the Ravens in a 10 point teaser for week 2. I believe this line will be weak after the spanking they took from the Broncos. There may be stronger plays, but this is the first result.

11 points is nowhere near enough for me to fade an elite team so I will not be fading the Broncos for week 2. Given their performance I feel they are the team to beat in the AFC.

[wolvesguy89]

This game tonight is a prime fukking example of how the Ravens spread is gonna be affected next week. However, they sure look like horseshit. No ray Lewis, Ed reed, Dennis pitta, and this team is garbage. They will be undervalued next week for sure, but err on the side of caution when picking this team

[wolvesguy89]

A fukking screen pass taken for 78 yards cost me the win hey. Up by 15 points 4 minutes left no were not gonna run the ball and run the clock out fukk that. We're gonna get lucky as fukk and throw a screen pass and do a horseshit job defending it and get scored on for the 7th time tonight. This is the first teaser I've ever lost. This is only like the 5th one I've done but fukk am I mad. Feel like an idiot

[MobFade]

Notes from BAL/DEN game that I posted in my Pick thread as well but think they would be appreciated here to put it in perspective. I was on BAL+9-110 for 1 unit:

Baltimore: Their D wasn't as bad as it looked. 7 TD's is a lot, but they're not going to see many offenses like the one Peyton was running and BAL's Offense couldn't get a 1st Down in the 2nd half. They were getting good pressure from the outside against a good line, and I think that's a positive. Their Run D was elite as they absolutely stuffed most runs that came their way. Their corners looked meh, but the talent with Webb and Smith is there. It's easy to over-react to this but keep it within the context of a first-ballot Hall of Famer having the night of his career and throwing more TD's than he or anyone has thrown in the NFL since '69. He was in god-like form tonight, and they also never failed to convert for a TD in the RZ. This was the most points BAL has allowed. Ever. I'm not trying to justify my pick, just not get too spun up on this loss and keep it all in context. No team is going to abuse BAL like that again this year and I think this D has the talent to end the year Top 10.

The Offense on the other hand is a train-wreck. Their WR/TE corps is an embarrassment. Their entire Offensive game plan does not play to their strengths at all trying to stretch the field like they've done in years past. Joe Flacco lacks the touch to consistently drop a deep ball and their options underneath should not be starting in the NFL. I think Torrey Smith is a good receiver, but he's not as physical as you need to be if you're going to be a downfield possession guy with a QB as erratic as Flacco is going downfield. Smith does not have skillset to out-physical a DB if he has to come back to the ball and make a big catch to bail his QB out. He was abused tonight.

The losses of Boldin and Pitta are manifesting themselves as Flacco has no one to throw to in the intermediate game, and nothing underneath with Rice/Pierce being used heavily in pass pro. Oher going down in the second half didn't make them any less one dimensional in this respect, and that will be something to consider for next week if he can't go and Ricky Wagner has to stat. This BAL O-line SHOULD be getting a push inside with the guys they have on the interior, and the lack of a BAL run game to sustain a drive and keep their D off the field proved to be their undoing in the 2nd half. And that challenge. OHHHHH the penetrating challenge.

DEN:

Offense - Nothing needs to be said about their passing game. They have more than enough weapons and Peyton is ridiculous before the snap. Also looked great not throwing any of those ducks from last year, and was a surgeon when he needed to be. TE J Thomas looked like the complete TE and should be a useful weapon going forward. Their run game on the other hand looked very suspect, but I'll give them a slight pass for now because BAL has a great front 7. Unfortunately, none of their RB's looks particularly good and I don't think any of them stood out to win that job. Peyton will open it up for them against lesser teams, but it's something to keep in mind once spreads start getting too high and you see some backdoor covers because they can't run out the clock.

Defense - They looked great without von Miller, which I didn't expect to the degree they showed tonight. I had reservations about their secondary, but they looked like the strongest unit on that side of the ball. Once Miller comes back it's going to be pretty gross.

[husky]

Thanks for the matrixes arp! I gave been looking at some pendulum type wagers on sports database and have found some very profitable subsets with your 10-point teaser idea. Finally, I would like to use your elite team and bottom team idea for the 10-point teasers. Any insight on a site and/or info I could use to come up with the top 7/bottom 7 power rankings? Thanks arp!

[arpeggiomeister]

I explain this in an earlier one. I use a top 8 and two substitutes. I like to do one per division if I can but sometimes the talent is so lopsided that you ca not do that. For example, I have both the 49ers and the Seahawks as elites, not subs. The Patriots will win the East this year because the East sucks, but I see them being one and done in the playoffs.

I see the Broncos shaping up to be like the 2007 Patriots which means they will be playing by different rules. The Pats covered their first 8 games in 2007. There was a hiccup at the the top of the bell curve and then they lost all but one game (Steelers) on the way back down. Most cycles are short and snap back in a week, but this will be longer cycle because so many people will be riding it. I expect a big bubble formation from the Broncos. The things to watch for in order to fade them will be 1. when a team figures out how to keep the game close. 2. when the point spread goes over 20. Remember that the point spread is all about the psychoogy of the public. I see the beginnings of a mania with this team.

I have my power rankings list posted up on this thread in an earlier post. The thing about lists are that they are always controversial. If you disagree with it then tweak it until it suits you. I would also check sites like ESPN. Do a search for power rankings. You will get a bunch.

Hope that helps.

[arpeggiomeister]

Notes from BAL/DEN game that I posted in my Pick thread as well but think they would be appreciated here to put it in perspective. I was on BAL+9-110 for 1 unit:

Baltimore: Their D wasn't as bad as it looked. 7 TD's is a lot, but they're not going to see many offenses like the one Peyton was running and BAL's Offense couldn't get a 1st Down in the 2nd half. They were getting good pressure from the outside against a good line, and I think that's a positive. Their Run D was elite as they absolutely stuffed most runs that came their way. Their corners looked meh, but the talent with Webb and Smith is there. It's easy to over-react to this but keep it within the context of a first-ballot Hall of Famer having the night of his career and throwing more TD's than he or anyone has thrown in the NFL since '69. He was in god-like form tonight, and they also never failed to convert for a TD in the RZ. This was the most points BAL has allowed. Ever. I'm not trying to justify my pick, just not get too spun up on this loss and keep it all in context. No team is going to abuse BAL like that again this year and I think this D has the talent to end the year Top 10.

The Offense on the other hand is a train-wreck. Their WR/TE corps is an embarrassment. Their entire Offensive game plan does not play to their strengths at all trying to stretch the field like they've done in years past. Joe Flacco lacks the touch to consistently drop a deep ball and their options underneath should not be starting in the NFL. I think Torrey Smith is a good receiver, but he's not as physical as you need to be if you're going to be a downfield possession guy with a QB as erratic as Flacco is going downfield. Smith does not have skillset to out-physical a DB if he has to come back to the ball and make a big catch to bail his QB out. He was abused tonight.

The losses of Boldin and Pitta are manifesting themselves as Flacco has no one to throw to in the intermediate game, and nothing underneath with Rice/Pierce being used heavily in pass pro. Oher going down in the second half didn't make them any less one dimensional in this respect, and that will be something to consider for next week if he can't go and Ricky Wagner has to stat. This BAL O-line SHOULD be getting a push inside with the guys they have on the interior, and the lack of a BAL run game to sustain a drive and keep their D off the field proved to be their undoing in the 2nd half. And that challenge. OHHHHH the penetrating challenge.

DEN:

Offense - Nothing needs to be said about their passing game. They have more than enough weapons and Peyton is ridiculous before the snap. Also looked great not throwing any of those ducks from last year, and was a surgeon when he needed to be. TE J Thomas looked like the complete TE and should be a useful weapon going forward. Their run game on the other hand looked very suspect, but I'll give them a slight pass for now because BAL has a great front 7. Unfortunately, none of their RB's looks particularly good and I don't think any of them stood out to win that job. Peyton will open it up for them against lesser teams, but it's something to keep in mind once spreads start getting too high and you see some backdoor covers because they can't run out the clock.

Defense - They looked great without von Miller, which I didn't expect to the degree they showed tonight. I had reservations about their secondary, but they looked like the strongest unit on that side of the ball. Once Miller comes back it's going to be pretty gross.

Good analysis brother. Thanks for the input. It will be interesting to see if the Ravens can straighten anything out on offense in future games.

[arpeggiomeister]

A fukking screen pass taken for 78 yards cost me the win hey. Up by 15 points 4 minutes left no were not gonna run the ball and run the clock out fukk that. We're gonna get lucky as fukk and throw a screen pass and do a horseshit job defending it and get scored on for the 7th time tonight. This is the first teaser I've ever lost. This is only like the 5th one I've done but fukk am I mad. Feel like an idiot

Hang in there brother, the season is just getting started. There is a lot more football to come. I was tempted to tease this one myself but I chose the parlay matrix instead. That does not make me brilliant, just lucky. I thought the Ravens D would have kept this game closer but those guys were out of gas in the 2nd half and as a result Peyton just tore them apart.

Chin up friend. You will rebound.

[arpeggiomeister]

I see what you're saying, but what if instead of making those 3 parlays you make a 2 unit play on the Over and a 1 unit parlay on BAL+9/U48? Conversely, you could also put down two units on BAL+9 and then a single unit on DEN-9/O48. That way, the only way you lose is still if it goes under and denver covers, but your potential payout from the 2 unit play is higher than what you would get from two separate parlays. Does that make sense?

That is a good thought. I will have to play around with it and see what the numbers come out like. Backtesting is so tedious and I need to stay focused on this season. I may paper trade this idea on this thread if you don't mind.

You could take 2 units on the over, say $100 to win $91. Then you could hedge the under with $40 to win $105.56 and cover both sides; Broncos/u and Ravens/u. The profit is small, but who cares if you can repeat this multiple times. You win $11 if it goes over and $5.56 if it goes under. I better double check my numbers on this, but if this right the potential is ridiculous.

The first thing I have to check is to see if my math is correct. Books do not leave openings like this so the first thing that comes to mind is that I have made some kind of mistake.

If this works it is F-ing huge. Should I call it the Speed Racer parlay?

Great line of thinking, even if it does turn out to be a dead end. I will look deeper into this.

[arpeggiomeister]

OMFG it works!!! I just placed a bet on the New England game using this.

I put $10 on the over (51) to win $9.09

I then put $4 on NE/u to win $10.58
and $4 on BUF/u to win $10.58

There is no way to lose this betting matrix. The gain will be 3% to 6%. Einstein said compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. It is time to start compounding!!! Speed Racer you freakin rock brother!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ticklz]

OMFG it works!!! I just placed a bet on the New England game using this.

I put $10 on the over (51) to win $9.91

I then put $4 on NE/u to win $10.58
and $4 on BUF/u to win $10.58

There is no way to lose this betting matrix. The gain will be 3% to 10.6%. Einstein said compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. It is time to start compounding!!! Speed Racer you freakin rock brother!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

interesting work here guys, i like how this is shaping up cant wait to see the results