You all know the drill. I'm very excited for another season back focusing solely on NCAAF Football. There have been lots of exciting coaching changes and I will provide my picks and analysis like ever year within this one season long thread.
My past forum threads and records for college football are:
NCAAF '12 Season: 80-58 (58%) +22.7 units (LINK)
NCAAF '13 Season: 96-97 (50%) +11.47(LINK)
NCAAF '14 Season: 66-86 (43%) -28.6 units (LINK)
NCAAF '15 Season: 82-54 (60%) +27.58 units(LINK)
NCAAF '16 Season: 65-67 (49%) -5.61 units(LINK)
NCAAF '17 Season: 74-67 (52%) +0.2 units(LINK)
This brings my overall college football handicapping record to: 463-429 (52%) +27.74 units over the last 6 seasons (4 being profitable). We are due for another big season as my data organization and handicapping skills have improved over the years as well as my coaches grading system grows every year.
If anyone has any input, discussion, or suggestions, please feel free to chime in throughout the season. I have a couple plays already lined up and will be posting some picks shortly. All my lines are from pickmonitor.com when I lock them in.
Purdue -2.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Jeff Brohm and his coaching staff are back for the 2nd year implementing their new system. Last year was quite a successful turn-around as this Purdue team went 7-6, after going 8-28 the previous three seasons before Brohm. Purdue has the 6th most experienced offensive line returning with 118 career starts and an O-line that ranked 12th last year in adjusted line yards. Last year, Northwestern defeated Purdue 23-13 but I still like our odds because that was a tough game for Purdue who had just lost starting QB David Blough for the season and Sindelair stepped in. Despite this, Purdue still outgained Northwestern by .7 yards per play but lost the turnover battle. Purdue had 3 turnovers on downs, a missed FG, and a late interception just outside the Northwestern end zone to make the game appear more of a blowout then it really was. I think with Daivd Blough back and 9 returning starters (who accounted for 85% of their yards last season), this Purdue football team is due for an even better season. Purdue is an especially difficult team to play early on the season as Brohm loves misdirection and playbook trickery that should give us some additional points in this matchup.
Wake Forest -6.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Despite losing John Wolford who was playing out of his mind at the end of last year, I think this Wake Forest team could potentially have a great team this season. With 8 returning starters and all 5 of their offensive lineman, Kendall Hinton will have a very strong supporting cast and already has familiarity with the offense. They have the 3rd most experienced offensive line this season and should dominate Tulane’s weak front. I thought Hinton was going to replace Wolford last year but Wolford stepped up and really performed well, but Hinton did get some playing time with almost 50 passing and 50 rushing attempts. His speed and athleticism brings a new dimension to this offense. I always emphasize the strength of schedules every season and last year Wake Forest team had the 15th most difficult SOS (I use Sagarin Ratings for my SOS) and beat 6 bowl teams. Tulane is entering their 3rd year with Willie Fritz and his subpar coaching staff. Neither of his coordinators have proven consistent at the D1 level as they have been ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in ypp on offense and defense in one of the last two years. Wake Forest wins in a blowout.
Colorado State +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This is just too many points for a rivalry game on the first game of the season. Both teams are heavily depleted from last season with Colorado State ranking 125th in returning experience charts and Colorado ranking 115th. Giving Colorado State an edge is the transfer of KJ Carta Samuels from Washington who has some playing experience but was ultimately stuck as a backup for Jake Browning at Washington over the last 3 years. He is definitely talented as Chip Kelly and UCLA were attempting to recruit him also but he ultimately decided CSU where he did not have to compete for the starting role in his senior season. Another strong edge for Colorado State is their new defensive coordinator, John Jancek. A relatively unknown name but he led strong defenses at Cincinnati in ’12 and Tennessee from ’13-’15 where he turned the defense around from ranking 105th in ypp in his first year to 33rd in ’15. The last two years he had various assistant jobs but this is his first year back as a defensive coordinator. Despite losing their first game against Hawaii I believe that experience gives them a strong advantage over Colorado who will have a very young team and a lot of first timers on the field for their first Friday night rivalry game in Denver. Colorado is 3-1-1 ATS in its last 5 years in this matchup so that gives us additional value being on the opposite side of this recent “trend”.
Rough 0-3 Start with some bad picks....onward and upward.....
Week 1 Additions:
Maryland +13 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Maryland is another team with a very exciting off-season coaching change adding Matt Canada as an offensive coordinator (and now intern head coach). Matt Canada is all about misdirection and pre-snap movement which should play very well with this fast paced spread the field offense unlike at LSU. The death of Jordan McNair is a tragedy but even though DJ Durkin is on administrative leave he still left a strong impact on recruiting for this team. He is best known for being a great recruiter, ranked “Recruiter of the Year” by Rivals in 2012 and his recruits will finally on the field after his 3rd season. Dynamic sophomore Kasim Hill will be back starting under center and this Maryland team should be much improved now that they are healthy. Last year they were decimated with injuries. In Last years match-up, Maryland dominated the line of scrimmage running at will averaging 6.1 yards per carry vs texas. Texas struggled to run the ball averaging only 3.1 yards per carry. Much of the same guys will be in the trenches fighting again. Maryland will also most likely be interchanging QB’s Pigrome and Hill. Last year Pigrome and Hill could not be defended combining 12/15 passing for 219 yards. Considering all of these facts this line is a bit of a head scratcher. The only reason this line is so high is because of how awful Maryland’s season ended but that was with Bortschlager under center and many other key injuries. This will be a much closer game and tragedies around team usually help inspire team members to play that much harder. Texas also has a few suspensions and notable injuries on defense including starting middle line back who will miss the first half of the game.
Tennessee +10 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Enter the Jeremy Pruitt era at Tennessee and from looking at his track record you can expect a significant turn-around on defense. Pruitt is easily in the top 5 defensive minded coaches in college football. Since he became a Defensive Coordinator in 2013 none of his defenses have been outside the top 20 of yards per play allowed at 3 different programs and most inside the Top 10. On the offensive side of the ball they have another young sharp coordinator that is not well known, Tyson Helton. He’s the younger brother of Clay Helton and was only an offensive coordinator once before at Western Kentucky in ’14-’15, where his offense quietly ranked 4th in ypp in the first year and #1 in his 2nd year. Tennessee has one of the highest rated coaching staffs going into this season and may even pull off the upset in this one. All we keep hearing about is Will Grier and WVU’s offense but defense wins games and there’s no reason to suspect that this year’s WVU defense will be anything different than its typical 92nd ranking it sported in ypp last year.
Penn State -24 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
No reason Penn State does not smash Appalachian State in this opener.Sorry no write-up for this one.
Northern Illinois +10 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
NIU struggled to find offensive rhythm early on the season last year alternating QB’s but they finally ended the season sticking with Marcus Childres a redshirt freshman who had some respectable numbers. He returns as well as his entire offensive line (hopefully they have improved). But most surprising about this NIU team last year was their defense, who ranked 11th in ypp allowed and have 6 returning starters from that squad.Iowa has to replace nearly their whole defense and will be very inexperienced. Their offense should struggle also with a few opening game suspensions on an already inexperienced line and with the loss of Whadley. Iowa and Ferentz are known for their conservative play-calling and I am confident we can cover the 10 points in this one. Rod Carey is also 4-1 in it’s last 5 games against the BIG 10 with their only loss coming against Ohio State and beat Ferentz and his Iowa program back in ’13. Rod Carey is also one of the best coaches at prepping his team for road games as Rod Carey is 27-12-1 ATS in his last 40 road games.
Washington +2 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
It’s very rare for me to take a PAC 12 team over an SEC team but I love this matchup in the first game of the season. Washington is coming back very experienced on both offense with both Browning and Gaskin back and on defense with 9 starters that ranked 6th in defensive ypp allowed.They know how to get pressure ranking 23rd in sack % and that is something Stidham and this offensive line has struggled with last season. Stidham is not a mobile athletic QB that Malzahn/Lindsey’s offense needs to really open up its playbook. Auburn will need to find offensive production elsewhere this season as they lose two huge playmakers in Pettway and Johnson who created a ton of yards after contact last season. Auburn also just lost two of its top 5 returning receivers from last season due to injuries in practice. This is Washington’s biggest game of the season and they will throw out all the stops in this one to try and pull out the win. I love our chances. Buy to 3 if you can like I did at my bookie but I use pickmonitor.com for tracking purposes.
Cincinnati +14.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Enter the 2nd year of Luke Fickell. He is known for his recruiting and has exceeded expectations bringing high level recruits to the bearcats program.Hayden Moore is coming back for his senior season with plenty of experience and familiarity with OC Mike Denbrocks offense who despite ranking 91st in ypp last year has had successful tenures at other schools. Luke Fickell is also a defensive guru (was with Meyer at Ohio State since ’12) should be able to help improve this defense with 7 returning starters in his 2nd year that struggled last year ranked 90th in ypp. On the other side we have Chip Kelly back in college after being in the NFL for 6 years. Although we all know he had a great run at Oregon, he had some great talent in place and inherited a solid program from Mike Belotti that went 10-3 the season prior. This UCLA team is not in good shape after 5 years of Jim Mora. Wilton Speight being named starter helped solidify this pick as I feel like he is slow, indecisive and clumsy which doesn’t fit well at all with Kelley’s offense. Cincinnati is able to keep this one close as UCLA is most likely looking ahead to next weeks matchup vs Oklahoma.
More Plays will be coming soon including a BIG TWO UNIT PLAY!
Iowa has some suspensions so I kinda like the pick, but this will not be the typical Iowa offense. They are going to throw it a lot more and Stanley had a pretty good first year, I expect he'll raise his 56% completion rate but he did have 26-6 td to int last year. Receivers with more experience, Fant looking like a possible 1st rounder.
Tennessee ML (+305) Risking .5 units to win 1.53 units
Michigan -1.5 (-102) Risking 2.04 units to win 2 units
With 9 returning starters on defense and 80% of their accumulated tackles from last year returning, this defense will undoubtedly be a power house like it was last year. Last year’s defensive line ranked 1st in adjusted line yards, 2nd in adjusted sack rate, and 5th in yards per play, despite their anemic offense. Their offensive woes should be over now that Shea Patterson transferred over to Michigan and I expect a huge season out of Michigan. Notre Dame returns much of their strong defense also that ranked 25th in ypp but their line struggled ranking 41st in rushing ypp and ranked 64th in adjusted sack %. Mike Elko, their defensive coordinator from last season left for Texas AM to work with Jimbo and the new defensive coordinator has no coordinating experience and has had only various assistant jobs.Jim McElwain from UF also steps in as an assistant to help ignite this Michigan offense.Michigan wins this one in a close game that will be probably the best game of week 1. This is my favorite bet of the weekend and my first 2 unit bet of the year. Michigan has also had significantly higher recruiting rankings over ND the last 3 years.
UTSA/Arizona State Under 54.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Both teams are installing new offensive schemes and coaching staffs. I have Arizona States offensive coordinator Rob Likens the worst rated OC in the league as he was only an OC twice at Kansas where they ranked 123rd and 122nd in his two seasons in ypp. On UTSA we have Al Borges who has had a long below average career as well. UTSA surprisingly had a strong defense last year ranking 34th in ypp allowed. New DC Danny Gonzales should improve this ASU defense that returns 4 starters but that’s a good thing as they were awful last season. I think both offenses will struggle to implement their new systems and both coaches will play conservatively giving us a good chance at the under.
Arizona -10.5 (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
If you followed my write-ups from last season you know I love Khalil Tate. Enter Kevin Sumlin and his spread the field offense tailor made for this QB. This offense should be extremely explosive with all of its starting receiving corps and two freshmen TE’s back. Its biggest question mark is their defense who hopefully improves from their 86th ypp ranking last season. They have 9 returning starters on defense and defensive coordinator Marcel Yates is entering his 3rd season. Although he has struggled his 1st two seasons at Arizona he has a successful past and reunites with Sumlin who he was DC with TexasAM in ’12-’13. Since Mendenhall’s departure this BYU program has been digressing. Their offense relies on Tanner Mangum airing it out but he will have a brand new supporting cast around him as they only have 5 returning starters on offense. Kevin Sumlin will not take his foot off the gas and is the ultimate opening game prepper going 4-0 ATS in his last 4 openers. Also giving us value in this spread is the fact that BYU is 3-1 ATS in it’s last 4 vs Arizona.
Sorry to all those who tailed. Worst opening weekend ever. I had a write up for Miami but I flew to Dallas at 6 am this morning and left my laptop at home (that had the write up) to see Miami stomp LSU
Adding:
Miami -3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
(2-10-1) -10.25 units last week
The worst week I’ve ever had, sorry fellas. Nothing like a challenge though digging yourself out of a huge hole. I need to start going lighter in week 1 as it has been troublesome for me as of lately but Week 2’s have always been great. Time to bounce back. More to be released tomorrow morning.
Week 2: Purdue -16.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units I’ve already talked a lot about this Purdue team as I had them last week but despite losing I still like our chances to cover in this one. Eastern Michigan is returning a very weak team that got outgained by Monmouth University in week 1 in yards per rush. They have a brand new starting senior QB who transferred from being a backup at Iowa with a whole new receiving corps. They averaged 11.2 yards per pass in their opener but that’s against Monmouth and I have a feeling they are not going to look quite as good against Purdue. Hopefully the Sindelair experiment is over, who started last weeks game for Purdue vs Northwestern and had 3 interceptions making the difference in this game. Blough came In the 2nd half and led a solid come back but the time just ran out of the game. Lets get our unit back this week we lost on Purdue week 1. Giving us value in this one is despite going 12-13 SU in the last two seasons, EMU has gone 17-7 ATS but this is an entirely different offense from those years. Chris Creighton will most likely return to his 3-21 records his first two seasons he had at EMU.
Michigan -28 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units Jeez how many times did we have to hear how terrible Michigan was this past week (especially on troll forums and ESPN)? The difference in the game was a 50 yard prayer that Wimbush threw up that should have been picked but somehow ended up a TD for ND early after a solid opening drive. Notre Dame had 7 possession in the 2nd half and ran 28 plays for 68 yards and 3 points (not counting it’s kneel downs either). Michigan and Harbaugh did what they do and made adjustments and shutdown this Notre Dame team after a well executed and fortunate start by ND. No reason Michigan does not blow out a Western Michigan team who lost to Syracuse last week in a shootout. They should get this offense going as it will be a lot easier to move the ball against this Western Michigan team that ranked 79th in yards per play allowed even with the 104th weakest SOS last season. Michigan should hold western Michigan to 0-10 points so as long as we put up 38 we cover and I like our chances as Harbaugh knows he needs to win out impressively and get his offense in rhythm.
UNC/ECU Under 60 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units Given the amount of suspensions UNC has, including their starting QB and RB, I like our chances in this one. Lets hope ECU defense improves from last season that ranked 130th last season but what do you expect when you fire your defensive coordinator after the 2nd game. Hopefully the new hiring of David Blackwell who had big success at FCS school Jacksonville state will translate. This one should be low scoring as both teams offenses will be very inexperienced and return very little from last season. UNC defense looked stout last week vs California only giving up 17 points (7 was from def) despite 4 turnovers. UNC’s offense was anemic but I doubt they get past 35 and should win by two TD’s, keeping us well under the total. Giving us value is the fact the last time these two teams played they scored over 100 points in ’13 and ’14.
Additions: Arkansas -13 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units Colorado State made Colorado look amazing last week with an inexperienced class but they are about to get a reality check against this Arkansas team. 17 starters return with a major upgrade in the coaching department with Chad Morris taking over. If you’ve read my write-ups in the past you know I'm a fan of Chad Morris who had successful tenures as OC at Clemson with Dabo for 4 years and then implemented well at Tulsa where he was in the top 25 of yards per play in 2 of his 3 seasons. They should have no problem rolling over this Colorado State team who gave up over 6 yards per carry and were held under 3.5 yards per carry. Their line was getting dominated by Colorado and this Arkansas SEC line will be a lot bigger. This was the first play I locked in the week and snagged the number Wednesday night but I still feel comfortable with anything less than 17.
Virginia +5 (-108) Risking 2.16 units to win 2 units Bryce Perkins had an impressive debut in his opener albeit against Richmond. He looks like a running back out there and has the speed and power to go along with it. This is what Bronco Mendenhall and Robert Anae needed to spark this offense after two poor years thanks to limitations at their QB position.He also has some good weapons around him between Ellis, Reed, and Zaccheaus all returning from last year. In last year’s matchup between these two teams, it was a 14 point win for Indiana but the game was close til the end and some special teams woes led to 14 points (1 TD and 1 poor punt to 32 yard line) Indiana will have the same struggles it had last year with the poor QB options and all 5 returning on their offensive line. An offensive line that ranked 104th in adjusted line yards and 49th in sack %. Last year this offensive line struggled with Virginias blitzing giving up 4 sacks, 3 passes broken up, and 8 tackles for loss. Bronco Mendenhall is definitely on the hot seat this season and has this revenge game circled and prepped for as their first game was a cakewalk.
Iowa State +3.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units These Cyclones had a significant turnaround in Matt Campbell’s second year going from 3-9 to 8-5. Back again this year is sixth year senior Kyle Kempt who will have a strong understanding of the offense and David Montgomery who ran for over 1100 yards last season and almost 4.5 yards per carry. Three out of 5 guys are back on the offensive line as well. These teams are very well evenly matched and it will be a great game to watch. Taking the points at 3.5 as I don’t think it will get to 4.
Michigan State -5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units Arizona state did not look good in it’s opener, UTSA just looked that bad. First let me say that game should have never gone over but a couple defensive TD’s and horrible tackling by UTSA and that’s what you get. Michigan State defense struggled with the uptempo of Utah State which kept this game close. They are a team with a lot of depth and constantly rotating packages but didn’t have many opportunities to in this opener. They were caught off guard. MSU has the 13th highest team in experience rankings (phill steele) and ranked 14th in SOS (sagarin ratings) last season. Like I mentioned last week, I still believe this ASU team will really struggle with such a poorly rated coaching staff but I could be wrong. This will be a fun night cap and an unusually late game for MSU.
Baylor -17 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units See write-up about how bad UTSA was. Baylor is one of the most experienced teams coming back with 18 returning starters and although they went 1-11 last year, they did have the 23rd hardest SOS according to Sagarin. On the other side of the ball UTSA had the 140th most difficult SOS and returns very few. Baylor was also riddled with injuries last season.Frank Wilson is entering his 3rd year as head coach for the roadrunners. Before this stint he was pretty much one of the highest touted recruiting coordinators winning all sorts of awards by scout and rivals. But that was at a big school LSU. Don’t think you can hire a great recruiter and make a great team without someone to lead them and strategize properly. Al Borges (Offensive coordinator) and Jason Rollins (Defensive Coordinator) have extremely weak resumes and are not the guys to do it. This could be a very bad season for this UTSA team but may just be an overreaction from what I saw week 1.
Week 3:
Wake Forest +4.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
No one has a more mundane offense than this Boston College team with Scott Loeffler as offensive coordinator. He has ranked 126th and 99th in yards per play in his last two seasons at Boston College. Prior to that he was at Virginia tech for 3 seasons as OC where his best season was ranking 100th in yards per play. Last year, Wake Forest’s defensive packages gave Boston College fits as Anthony Brown went 11-29 for 119 yards and 3 INTs. Their offensive line that returns in tact from last season ran for 142 yards but off of 41 carries which is typical Loeffler. Hartman in his first two games looked very capable and was able to make accurate throws on the run as well as making plays with his legs. This Wake Forest team is a little banged up but I still like our chances to cover and when the line opened I thought Boston College was going to be a much bigger favorite due to market conditions but after touching 7 this line quickly dropped (had an opportunity to get at 7 and should have jumped on it). Boston College has been coasting so far against 2 weak opponents but now will have their first respectable matchup. Giving us additional value is the fact that BC is 2-0 ATS this season and Wake is 0-2 ATS.
Hello,
Sorry for the poor season so far but it’s still early. I finally closed on my first home this week so I was a little stressed and preoccupied for the last few months. Now all the pressure is gone and I can focus on college football. Also on a brighter note, this marks the last week I handicap without offensive/defensive line and S&P rating stats. These numbers are a key part of my weekly handicapping but are only listed after week 3 of the college football season. These write-ups are a little shorter than usual as I had a busy week but next week with all the additional stats we will be able to apply my write-ups will be more thorough.
Ball State +15 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units Many would look at Ball State’s 2-10 season last year and say they were a horrible team. Although they were horrible, it was because they were forced to play 4 different QBs due to injury.Both of those wins came in their first 3 games with 6’6 QB Riley Neal starting who’s back for his senior year. Coach Mike Neu is entering his third year as a first time head coach and has been a QB coach and has been guiding 4th year starter Riley and showing improvement for a horrible team he inherited. He gets his team ready to go on the road going 8-5 ATS and 5-1 ATS in non conference games. Also returning is 9 starters on their offense including four from the offensive line. Their defense played lights out last week against Notre Dame racking up 10 TFLs (4 of those sacks), 4 QB hurries, 5 broken up passes, 1 forced fumble and 3 INTs. They should be able to do enough to keep this one close against an Indiana team that has struggled under 2nd year head coach Tom Allen.
Nebraska -9.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units Despite being unsure if Adrian Martinez will be back I still think Nebraska covers by 10. Neal Brown has shown a tremendous turn-around after his 1st year (4-8) and has quietly gone 21-5 in his last two seasons at Troy. But this has been against much weaker competition sporting one of the lowest sagarin rating SOS’s over the last two seasons.Brown has also gone 13-6 ATS on the road, but never has he gone into the sea of red that will erupt today as Scott Frost looks for his first win and turn this Nebraska program around.
Houston/Texas Tech Over 69 (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
Sorry no writeup.
Virginia -3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units Ohio is 24-12 ATS in it’s last 3 seasons but their quality of opponents have been extremely poor ranking 129th and 126th in sagarin SOS ratings. During those 3 years they only played 4 power 5 teams (Purdue, Minnesota, Tennessee and Kansas).Ohio had a week to rest last week after barely squeaking by Howard in week 1. Virginia lost a hard fought battle to Indiana and Bronco needs this win and they will win big. I think this Virginia team has tons of potential this season with Bryce Perkins and no reason they shouldn’t beat Ohio by 7+ points.
Vanderbilt +13.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units I keep reading preview articles that say Notre Dame’s bound for a bounce back game here but looking at the stats; it’s tough for me to agree. Last week Ball State got 10 tackles for loss against Notre Dame- that’s right 10. Week 1 Notre Dame was entirely shut down in the 2nd half after a fortunate start and their offense continued to struggle against a MAC team. They ran for 2.85 yards per carry against Ball State, a slight increase from its 2.81 yards per carry it achieved in game 1. Kyle Shurmur is back and off to a hot start for Vanderbilt quite an impressive showing in last year’s bowl game. Few QB’s have the will and determination to win as this guy does.New RB transfer from Illinois Ke’Shawn Vaughn averaged 5 yards per carry last season and is averaging 6.5 yards per carry in his first two games. Their entire offensive line is back and helping this offense click. Catching two scores plus, I really like our chances in this one. Buy a half point if you can with your bookie as the current platform of pickmonitor doesn’t allow me to.
Northwestern -21 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units Despite losing by 14 to Duke last week, I really like what I had to see from this Northwestern team. Although their offense was sporadic as coach was giving TJ Green some late reps, their defense looks like a well coached ball hawking aggressive B10 defense. They should have no problem against this Akron team who has only played one game against an FCS school. Terry Bowden is a coach surviving on name alone and don’t think he will survive another losing season.
Texas -3.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units Texas was in the spotlight week 1 at the noon slot against Maryland but they underestimated the attack of Matt Canada and could not keep up. USC is coming off a disappoining loss to rival Stanford and goes on the road again to Texas. Helton is also 1-8 as an underdog and 2-8 against non conference opponents during his tenure at USC. This USC team has really been gashed on the ground so far giving up 308 yards against UNLV in week 1 on 43 carries (7.16 yards per carry) Ehlriger looked much more comfortable in his second start and should be able to move the ball up and down the field with the running game going. This line is a bit suspicious and is just begging you to take USC. This may be classified as one of my “tin-foil hat specials” as there are not much stat numbers to support but more of an anomaly in market conditions.
UCLA +2.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units This is a must win game for UCLA at home as Chip Kelly lost his opening two games. Their offense at least showed some life with Speight out and hopefully he stays out although he is listed as questionable (as well as most of this UCLA team) . Despite getting blown out Thompson-Robinson threw for 9.8 yards per pass against Oklahoma. UCLA has been an ATS nightmare for quite some time now and this has to turn around soon starting with this game where UCLA seems to be clearly undervalued.
Week 3 Results: (4-5) -1.27 units
Season YTD: (8-19) -12.85 units
Week 4:
USC -5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Washington State has been coasting by on an easy schedule so far this season with an SOS rating of 135th on sagarin and 119th on teamrankings. Senior transfer Garner Minshew has had a two year history at ECU of racking up stats against soft teams and struggling with good defenses (even average defenses). In 2017, he averaged less than a 50% competition rating in 5 of his games against these average defenses. He will struggle against this USC secondary that has been surprisingly good this season ranking 14th in opponents completion percentage and 28th in yards per pass allowed.They have done it against tough competition too as their sagarin strength of schedule ranks 6th in the nation and 14th according to TR.Clay Helton is also 6-3 with revenge as they desperately need a win at home after two hard road losses against tough teams. Mike Leach is known to drink a lot and Im sure he will be on this Friday night primetime game as he takes this team lightly as he is 8-12 vs revenge teams. Washington State gets a wakeup call today as their offense struggles to put points on the board.
Let’s see if we can get ourselves out of this rut. Unfortunately, FootballOutsiders has still not released their offensive line and defensive line statistics, nor the in-depth S&P ratings – even though it is normally done after Week 3 and says so on the website. After this week, if they still haven’t fixed that, let’s all work together and write a few scathing emails to them and boycott their website. Haha.
Week 4 Additions:
Maryland -2.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units Maryland’s offense looked horrible last week against Temple but I have faith in Matt Canada to turn it around this week. They kept shooting themselves in the foot, ranking #117th in penalties per play and were being dominated at the line allowing 7 sacks. Their defense has been surprisingly strong holding opponents to 2.8 yards per carry on the ground ranking 13th. Minnesota is also sporting a very good defense in yards per play allowed but should be taken with a grain of salt as their sagarin SOS rating is 144th. On offense, we all have heard the story of the true freshman QB, Annexstand who has been winning games but all in all his stats are not that impressive especially when you consider their competition. They are still the same old Minnesota that relies heavily on the ground game averaging 46 rushing attempts over the first 3 weeks but they’ve been struggling in that department, falling under 3 yards per carry in the last two games but padding up their stats in week 1 against New Mexico State rushing for 6.28 yards per carry. Maryland should completely shut-down their rushing attack and then pin their ears back and put pressure on this new walk-on freshman at Minnesota. Let’s hope the Terps get their offense going and win this one easily.
Nebraska +18 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
The latest injury report says Martinez is upgraded to probable and will most likely play. This bet is solely dependent on that and if he doesn’t play I would hedge out immediately LIVE if you are able to, haha. Not much to be said about this one as I have talked about both of these teams but this is obviously a game Scott Frost has been preparing for all off-season. Frost still has a chip on his shoulder from when he was a starting QB at Nebraska in ’97 and led the team to a 13-0 season but did not get to play Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Still much controversy exists over who was the better team that season as this was during those horrible archaic times where there were no playoffs.
SMU +6.5 (+100) Risking .5 units to win .5 units
SMU Team Total Over 26 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units SMU is 0-3 but has had one of the toughest schedules in the first 3 games (ranking 2nd in sagarin and 3rd in TR). Last week against Michigan they brought in freshman William Brown in the 2nd half who went 11-17 with 2 TDs and ran for another 50 yards on 8 carries. Hopefully he will start as he looked great despite being thrown into Ann Arbor in his first game ever. Their quick up-tempo offense should have no problem moving the ball against a Navy defense that is ranked 121st in defensive S+P ratings despite a very weak schedule. Although SMU’s defense has struggled this season they look to improve from last year with new defensive coordinator Kevin Kane- a defensive coordinator who took Northern Illinois defense from 57th to 11th in yards per play allowed in his second year. This will most likely be a shootout where the team that has the ball last wins- let’s bank on it being a less than a TD. Navy has won and covered the last 5 matchups between these two teams so this is giving us some additional value. We’ll sprinkle a ½ unit on both the spread and the team total just to be safe.
Texas A&M +26 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units Jimbo has proven himself as one of the top coaches in college football and rarely gets blown out in games. He has this Texas A&M team looking great, only losing by two points last week to one of the best teams in Clemson. Alabama has dominated its first 3 games but in true Alabama fashion- against horrible competition. Of course Alabama was going to put 62 against an Ole Miss team that gave up 41 points to Southern Illinois the week before. Although Saban of course returns to Alabama, he lost both of his coordinators and Michael Locksley, the new offensive coordinator I have rated a D, as he has gone 3-31 as a head coach and has very little experience with coordinating duties. Sure he has been able to run up the score against teams that he completely out physically matched but that is not going to be the case with this Texas A&M team. Kellen Mond has been looking great this season and has not yet made a turnover. He is averaging 9.3 yards per pass and 6.2 yards per rush. Don’t be alarmed if we go down big early in this game as Jimbo is notorious for doing that but is one of the best coaches in the league at making half time adjustments and at this number there is no reason we shouldn’t hit a backdoor cover.
Vanderbilt/South Carolina Under 53 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units I hate taking unders in college football but this one looks very solid to me. Despite the numbers of these two defenses not being great so far this season, they are a lot better than the numbers indicate as South Carolina played a tough UGA team. Muschamp is entering his 3rd year and has a track record of masterminding top 10 defenses at Texas and Florida. In his 2nd year last year he improved this defense from 54th to 33rd in yards per play despite facing massive injuries. Vanderbilt has a strong secondary ranking 36th in defensive passing efficiency. These two teams are very familiar with each other and although the score soared over the total last year, the two seasons prior they were very low scoring games. Hopefully the weather projections are correct as we are due for a rainy sloppy game, limiting these offenses through the air.
Connecticut +29 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units I hate betting on crappy teams like Connecticut but I think we can manage to cover 29 in this one. Syracuse blew out an FSU team that is in shambles last week. I’m not putting too much value on holding that offense that is ranked 117th in S+P ratings to 7 points. Syracuse has always had issues with mobile QB’s and David Pindell can run and create time and space for his receivers. Syracuse is also giving up 6 yards per carry this season despite a SOS rating of 117th so far this season. This is just too many points and an over-reaction to last week. Giving us additional value is the fact that UConn is 0-3 ATS and Syracuse is 3-0 ATS. Connecticut’s 13-32 ATS record over the last 4 years at some point needs to be over-adjusted by odds makers and as crazy as it sounds, they should have a winning ATS record by season’s end as this is a common for over correction market adjustments by odds makers to even things out and make sure certain teams don’t turn into gold mines (either fading them or tailing them)
TCU -3 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units At first I was leaning Texas in this game but after digging into the numbers I decided to go the other way. TCU has dominated this matchup over the last 4 years and the trend looks to continue this season. Last year TCU absolutely owned the line of scrimmage racking up 12 TFLs, 7 sacks, and broke up 9 passes. They held Texas to 9 yards on 26 rushing attempts. Last week, TCU managed to put up 28 points against an elite Ohio State defense and rush for over 200 yards. They should be able to pull away in the 2nd half of this game. Texas is much undisciplined this season ranking #110 in penalties per play, while TCU as usual is much disciplined under Gary Patterson, ranking #15 in penalties per play. I am confident TCU pulls out a win by at least 3 points.
North Texas -12.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units Seth Littrell enters his 3rd year at North Texas where he has led quite a turn-around to this program that was in dire need of help. The year before he joined North Texas went 1-11. In his first year, he improved them to 5-8 and then last year went 9-5. This program is quietly on the up and up and with almost the entirety of their team returning starters on both sides of the ball they are well experienced and should dominate this Liberty team who is entering their first season at the FBS level. They like to throw the ball often and have yet to throw and INT. They are all about Time of possession as they are ranked 6th in the nation, possessing the ball for 61.9% in their first two games while Liberty has not even possessed the ball for 40% (ranking 122) in their first couple games. North Texas defensive line has also been getting plenty of pressure which should give lots of issues for Stephen “Buckshot” Calvert. No reason why North Texas should not win by 2 TD’s +.
Tennessee +4 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units Florida returns 10 starters on offense that ranked 104th in yards per play. Adding fuel to the dumpster fire of the offense is a whole new coaching staff and system. Feliepe Franks is not a QB that can lead this offense as you can tell by his 47.17% completion percentage and averaging 6.6 yards per pass (ranking 85th) [No I am not counting the game where he padded his stats against and FCS team in week 1]. Their new offense has attempted an up-tempo style of play but has yet to produce any significant results on poor competition. There are tiring out their own defense with a TOP % of 42%, ranking 114th in the league. Tennessee on the other hand likes to control the ball and the clock ranking 28th in TOP % and should dictate the pass of the game and wear out this Florida defense that has been pretty bad this season (considering their opponents) since the departure of Randy Shannon. I am still very high on this Tennessee coaching staff and think they will get some big wins despite struggling Week 1 when I backed them last.
Iowa +3 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units This Wisconsin team is extremely banged up and their defense was exposed last week against BYU allowing 6.8 yards per carry. Their defense only returned 4 starters from last season and is extremely thin as many of the few key players who had any experience last season are injured as well. Iowa’s defense on the other hand has been surprisingly more solid than ever. They are allowing only 2 yards per rush (ranking 2nd), 4.9 yards per pass (ranking 9th), and are 5th in sack percentage. I will take the much stronger defense at home with 3 points all day. This is also a revenge game where Ferentz is 38-31 ATS since he has been at Iowa.
Adding: Oklahoma State -14.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units Under new defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles, this Oklahoma State defense has been playing at another level unusual for BIG 12 teams. Thus far it has only been against weak competition though with their toughest game being Boise State. He has this defense ranked #2 in yards per rush allowed, only allowing 1.6 and has been dialing up the pressure, ranking 12th in sack %. Even against the pass they have been playing well ranking #27 in defensive yards per play. Oklahoma State offense although it’s been explosive as usual has struggled a bit running the ball and protecting their QB. Fortunately this is not a strength of Texas Tech’s defense as they are ranked 95th in sack % and 102nd in yards per rush allowed, giving up 5.6 yards per rush. Despite this game usually being a close shoot-out I think Oklahoma State should pull away significantly in the 2nd half.
Hello Everyone, Let's get our first winning week this year. Limiting my picks this week. Will add a few more night ones in a bit. This is what I got so far:
Week 5: Pittsburgh (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Pittsburgh ML (+392) Risking .25 units to win .98 units
Although UCF has won 16 straight games, I think they stand a good chance to lose this game and Pittsburgh should easily cover. Most should already know UCF’s entire coaching staff has departed for Nebraska and in steps Josh Huepel with a whole new crew. As much as I love Randy Shannon there are some big issues with this defense allowing 5.6 yards per rush and did not record a sack against 2 extremely weak opponents (UConn and FAU). Their only other opponent was 0-4 FCS school south Carolina state as they continue to coast by on cupcake schedules year in and year out. Pittsburgh is a power five conference and has faced much better competition this season (and every season) ranking 36th in sagarin ratings. They have a pair of senior running backs who are averaging 6.23 yards per carry and 6.79 yards per carry and should move the ball effectively under Kenny Pickett who got some important experience at the end of last year against Vtech and then winning against Miami. This will probably be a shoot out and there’s no way we don’t at least get a back-door cover.
Penn State +3.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Penn State ML (+152) Risking .5 to win .765 units
Been hearing a lot of chatter over the radio waves of how dominant this Ohio State offense is and how good Dwayne Haskins is. I’m just curious how anyone of could come to this conclusion having only faced Oregon State, Rutgers, Tulane, and TCU. Their defense is definitely not the same as last year only returning 5 starters and allowing 3.9 yards per carry against such weak opponents. They are very banged up including the injury of Nick Bosa. Penn State defense should bring these padded stats of Haskins down to earth as they are ranked #12 in opponent’s yards per pass and been effective at bringing pressure ranking #15 in sack %. Their offense under McSorley is as explosive as ever, ranking 2nd in points per play, 4th in yards per rush and have scored in 100% of their red zone opportunities. Ohio State defense has also been struggling giving up the big plays through the air already allowing 10 plays of 25+ yards (the entire last year they only gave up 21 over the season for perspective) – this big play vulnerability is definitely something McSorley should exploit. Ohio State is also one of the most penalized teams in the nation this year. This is a revenge game, at home and I think Penn State will win outright.
Notre Dame -5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units Notre Dame finally replaced that horrific QB Brandon Wimbush and Ian Book looked great last week stepping in for him.This Notre Dame defense is the real deal ranking 6th in defensive S+P ratings and holding their opponents to only 4.4 yards per play. Stanford offense has struggled thus far these despite the return of Bryce love and are only averaging 3.5 yards per rush ranking #104th in the nation. They have surpringly been successful through the air thus far ranking #12 in yards per pass but that’s against crappy PAC 12 defenses and this Notre Dame secondary is great ranking #33 in completion percentage allowed and 18th in yards per pass allowed. Despite David Shaw and this Stanford team usually keeping games close I think Notre Dame pulls away in the 2nd half.
WVU/Texas Tech Over 72.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units Rinse and Repeat. Anything Texas Tech, and anything in this crappy defensive conference that is the BIG 12.
Clemson -25.5 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit Was strongly leaning Clemson and what helped me lock this pick in is the fact that every ESPN capper I have seen is on Syracuse and riding the cupcake schedule train. True they are ranking 1st in net points per drive and most offensive statistics but that’s against the 157th worst SOS schedule to date and their toughest opponent being FSU who was in dogfight with a 1-3 FCS school Samford the week before. They are about to get a run for their money against a real Brent Venables defense who continues to be a powerhouse year in and year out. They are currently racked 3rd in TFL, 8th in opponent yards per play, 3rd in opponent yards per rush, 6th in completion percentage, and 1st in sack % at a crazy high 18.57%. Clemson dominates all game as Syracuse is not the same team on the road, even though they somehow kept it close last season, I think this season will be a lot like 2016’s outcome of 54-0 Clemson victory.
Northwestern +14.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units Too many points, they’ve had a very strong SOS with deceptively good teams in Purdue, Duke, and Akron this season. Sorry no long write-up. I watch the BIG 10 a lot and am very familiar with these two teams.
Thanks Terp, I was hoping to have the Offesnive/Defensive line and in-depth S+P ratings would be released this week as the website mistakenly said they would after week 3, when they normally don't release til week 7, which is the case and they corrected their mistake so I still don't have those stats.
Sorry only 1 of last 3 has writeup, I just have too much going on....
Week 5 Additions: Utah -2 (+102) Risking 1 unit to win 1.02 units I talked about how much I like this new offensive coordinator for this Utah team last year but they struggled as they battled injuries including to QB Nick Huntley. Huntley is back and healthy and although they are struggling so far this season it’s been against two great defenses, Washington who is ranked #3rd in S+P ratings and Northern Illinois who is ranked 29th in S+P ratings- both teams have a strong SOS as well. Although Washington State defense is sporting some great stats this season it has been against a very week schedule and I expect them to regress to their normal crappy PAC 12 defense standards this week. Utah’s defense has shown strong ranking 3rd in opponents yards per play allowed and 1st in defensive passing efficiency. Giving us additional value in this matchup is the fact that Washington State is 4-0 ATS thus far this season.
South Carolina -1.5 (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
Week 5 Results: (5-6) +0.18 units
Season YTD: 20-31 -15.02 units
Alright....a winning week! Time for a hot streak.....
Week 6 Iowa vs Minnesota Under 43 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units We all know what to expect out of these two BIG 10 defensive-minded power houses. Both teams are ranked in the Top 11 of defensive S&P ratings with Iowa ranked 6th. Their offenses are in the bottom 20% of offensive S&P ratings- setting up a rare opportunity where the S&P differential rankings between each offense and defense is enormous. We can also expect a heavy dose of the run, as both teams run at least 58% of the time and Iowa has been absolutely stuffing the run, holding opponents to 3.1 yards per rush.Both secondary’s this season are elite with Iowa ranking #21st in yards per pass and Minnesota ranking 4th in yards per pass allowed. Iowa as per usual likes to take their time and are currently ranked #119th in plays per game. Minnesota is currently ranked #40th in plays per game but mainly because it’s out possessing people ranking #15th in TOP battle. Both these teams will surely look to employ a time of possession battle with each other, attempting to tire out their opponent’s defenses and control the clock.
UL Lafayette -3.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units These teams boast similar numbers at the bottom of most advanced statistical categories but UL Lafayette has done it against an extremely much harder schedule. Although their defense is ranked 127th in S&P ratings, it was against three top 40 offenses. They should be able to get a few stops facing Texas State who is ranked 129th in offensive S&P, 127th in yards per play, #128th in yards per rush, and #119th in QB sack %. Lafayette’s offense has struggled with pressure, allowing 102nd worst sack %, but that shouldn’t be an issue against this Texas State defense that ranks #125th in sack%. Texas State starting QB, Willie Jones III is also questionable but I like this play regardless if he plays. Texas State is also one of the most heavily penalized teams, while Lafayette is one of the least.
Fresno State -14 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Rarely do we get two games with such a high statistical differential in one week, with the worst team also starting a new QB. Fresno State outranks Nevada by 64 in FEI; 76 in net points per drive; 52 in their offense vs Nevada’s defense S&P; and 48 in their defense vs Nevada’s offense. It was just announced today that Nevada’s starting senior QB, Gangi will most likely not be playing and their backup sophomore has almost no game experience. I won’t lie I have not watched either of these teams play at all in the last 3 years, but these numbers line up very well for Fresno State to have the big win.
Notre Dame -6.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units Ian Book is my new favorite player to watch. He makes great decisions, has an accurate arm, and very quick on his feet. This match-up will be particularly dangerous for Virginia Tech as they usually play man-to-man and press coverage which can be gashed by a mobile QB that can buy time. Notre Dame outranks Virginia Tech in almost every advanced statistical category, all with having a much more difficult strength of schedule then the hokies. This Virginia Tech offense should struggle to move the ball against their hardest defensive test by far. Playing against a weak schedule they have already given up 8.33% sack percentage ranking #96th in the nation. Notre Dame should win in a blowout like they did last week.
Adding: LSU -1.5 (-109) Risking 1.64 units to win 1.5 units This smells like trap city but I can’t resist. I had LSU capped to be at least 4-5 point favorite since like many of these picks this week they have a strong statistical advantage and much more difficult schedule then UF. LSU is great at controlling and milking the clock this season ranking #17 in TOP % net while UF struggles to get their defense off the field with #107th ranked TOP % net. Florida is also one of the heaviest penalized teams in the country ranking 123rd in penalties per play. Giving us additional value is that UF has covered in their last two head to head matchups but I think LSU wins this one in a blowout as this UF team gets exposed.
Michigan -17.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units Nothing spoils a Matt Canada offense more than disruption in the back field and exotic blitzes. Michigan is ranked 5th in TFL’s and I’m sure once the advanced statistics at college football study hall are released we will see some high rankings for Michigan in havoc rate. Just a reminder for how good this Michigan defense is- they are ranked 4th in yards per rush allowed only 2.4 yards per carry and ranked 3rd in yards per pass with 5.1 allowed. This is just a great matchup for Michigan with Maryland’s weakness playing right into Michigan’s strength’s and Harbaugh and Brown will get it done.
Auburn vs Miss. State Under 43 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
Week 6 (5-3) +1.21 units
Season YTD: 25-34 -13.81 units
Week 7:
Nebraska +3.5 (-105)
Oklahoma State -7 (-103)
Utah State -27 (-108)
Northern Illinois -4.5 (-105)
Virginia Tech -6.5 (-115)
Iowa State + 7 (-130)
Wisconsin +10 (-110)
Utah State -27 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
This is a matchup where I don’t watch much of either team, but the numbers give a very strong advantage to Utah State. Not only does Utah State out rank UNLV by 60 points in FEI, their offense to defense S+P differentials are huge, 46 rankings on offense and 85 rankings on defense. This a huge mismatch on both sides of the ball with a stronger SOS. Add to that the fact that UNLV just lost their starting QB in Week 5 and the new starter Max Gilliam went 15-35 last week and averaged 3.5 yards per pass. I hate taking huge spreads but this one looks great.
Northern Illinois -4.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This is another great matchup against two teams I rarely watch or care about but all the numbers point to a strong advantage of N. Illinois. N. Illnois strengths are their defense, ranked 12th in S+P ratings and ranked 8th in opponent ypp allowed- all against some tough competition ranking 35th in sagarin ratings. Although their offense has struggled this season they have been improving ever since starting the season off against two extremely tough defenses in Iowa and Utah. Their experienced mobile sophomore QB Marcus Childers should be able to move the ball no problem against Ohio’s defense that is ranked 128th in S+P ratings and 120th in opponent yards per play- all against weak competition ranking 119th in sagarin. In special teams we also have a strong advantage as Ohio is ranked at one of the worst in the league while N. Illinois is above average. The FEI ratings agree that N. Illinois is a better team despite having a worse record S/U and ATS. Starting QB for Ohio is also listed as questionable giving us some strong value because if he doesn’t play we will surely cover by a good margin.
Virginia Tech -6.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Just as this UNC offense got back Chaz Surrat last weekend and started to show some life they got the horrible news that he tore ligaments in his hand and will be out for a while. Elliot is an awful QB and will struggle with pressure and tight press man coverage as he is not very mobile or accurate. Vtech outranks UNC by at least 40 ranks on both sides of the ball according to S+P. Another huge mismatch should be at the line of scrimmage as UNC has struggled ranking 126th in offensive stuff rate (meaning how often they get to at least LOS) and 111th in TFL allowed. Virginia Tech’s defensive line ranks 3rd in stuff rate and 19th in TFL. UNC’s offense has many padded stats from end of game bullshit time when they were not competitive with their opponents and I am not too worried about their big play and isoPPP stats which is a vulnerability in this Vtech defense. As long as we limit the big plays we should win this one in a blow-out.
Iowa State + 7 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
Iowa State is the best team in the BIG 12 because they have a defense. They also actually play some difficult teams ranking 2nd in SOS ratings opposed to W. Virginia who is ranked 70th. Hopefully David Montgomery is back who should have a field day against this faux strong defensive front of W. Virginia who is currently sporting a 20th ranking in opponents yards per rush but against a cupcake schedule. Iowa State can and should control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. West Virginia has covered the spread and won against Iowa State in the last 4 meetings, giving us some extra value – although last season it was a close one and squeaked by the cover of a half a point. Iowa State is a well coached team with a few penalties and should have no problem covering 7 points.
Wisconsin +10 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Wisconsin’s offense has been surprisingly efficient this season ranking 8th in offensive S+P ratings and 14th in net points per drive. They are averaging 6.7 yards per play and 6.2 yards per rush which will be an interesting matchup against Michigan’s front who is currently allowing opponents to rush for only 2.6 yards per carry. If Wisconsin can run the ball for 4-5 yards per carry they should cover this without issue like they did last season. They dominated the line of scrimmage in last year’s matchup holding Michigan to 1.6 yards per carry and rushing for 4.6 yards per carry themselves. Michigan is also one of the most heavily penalized teams. Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS giving us some extra value in this matchup.
Oklahoma State -7 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Back betting against this Kansas State team as they shouldn’t have covered last week against Baylor but it was one of my 3 losses. The biggest mismatch in this game should be Kansas State struggling to find time to throw the ball. They are currently ranked 124th in sack % allowing 12.41% sacks per drop back which plays right into Oklahoma State who likes to blitz and bring pressure ranking #11th in sack%.
Nebraska +3.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I really like what I have seen from this Nebraska team, despite being 0-5. Their first game they looked great until Martinez went down and their offense has been struggling ever since. He was wobbling around first couple weeks back but is no longer on the injury report so like to think he’s in full health. Even though Northwestern has played great the last two weeks against Michigan and Michigan State, their offense was very one dimensional. They averaged less than 1 yard per carry in both matchups and are subsequently ranked 129th in stuff rating on offense. Their offense is incapable of big plays ranking 121st in big play percentage and 118th in isoPPP. Their defense is not sporting as great numbers as it’s used to either being susceptible to the big play ranking 74th which Scott Frost and this Nebraska offense should exploit. Northwestern has also struggled to get pressure which has been an issue for Nebraska but ranking 92nd in sack rate I don’t think it will be an issue. This line stinks obviously as it opened at 8 and has dropped a good 4 points but I’m still buying and think Nebraska even wins outright.
Week 7 (4-4) -.33 units
Season YTD: (29-38) -14.14 units
Alright fellas, this is the big turn around week. The offensive/defensive line statistics are finally live. Footballstudyhall is finally live. All the resources are finally available that weren't available in the beginning of the season. We have learned from our mistakes and the come back begins this week. More may be added soon.
Week 8 Cinn/Temple Under 48.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
These two defenses are quietly performing as the best two defenses in the league (against their weak competition). Luke Fickell has worked his defensive strategic magic at Cincinnati and they are currently ranked 5th in opponent yards per play at 4.2. Temple is ranked 2nd in opponent yards per play. Both have especially excelled against the pass with Temple ranked #1st in yards per pass and #3 in completion percentage allowed. Cinncinnati is ranked #2nd in yards per pass and #2 in completion percentage allowed. We should get a heavy dose of the run from Cinncinnati who runs the ball 65% of the time which will keep this clock rolling in this defensive struggle where both offenses are ranked pretty poorly according to FEI and S&P. The combined defensive differential ranking over the opposing offense for FEI is 91 and S&P is 110 so this is a rare opportunity and the game should stay well under the total.
Missouri -9.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units Missouri may be 3-3 but they have had one of the most difficult schedules in the league (ranking 4th according to sagarin). Memphis is 4-3 but has had one of the softest schedules around ranking 131st according to sagarin like most teams of the American conference. That’s a pretty big SOS differential and despite that Missouri still outranks Memphis in FEI and S&P ratings on both sides of the ball. Memphis offense has been sporting some nice rushing numbers ranking 1st in the yards per rush at 7.4 but that should be taken with a grain of salt as their toughest run defense so far this season has been Tulane who is ranked 72nd. They also faced the two worst teams in the league at stopping the run to pad their stats. Missouri’s run defense has been stout holding opponents to 3.5 yards per carry, ranking 29th and stopping the run should throw this Memphis team out of funk. Missouri’s secondary is sporting some awful numbers but what do you expect when you have played Alabama, Georgia and Purdue. I think Missouri wins this one easily.
Northwestern -20 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units Northwestern offense is the type to struggle against tough competition but get into sync against the sorry teams. Rutgers is definitely a sorry defense ranking 88th in FEI, 92nd in S&P with a sagarin SOS ranking of 69th. They have given up a ton of big plays, ranking 125th in big play rate and 115th in IsoPPP. Their opportunity rate is 122nd and have had nearly no pressure on opposing QBs with a sack rate ranking 108th. On the other side of the ball the numbers are even more advantageous for Northwestern. Mainly because Rutgers offense ranks 123rd in FEI and 127th in S&P, two numbers that are outranked by almost 90 rankings on both sides of the ball by Northwestern’s tough defense. Northwestern’s defensive flaw is their susceptibility to the big play but Rutgers offense is one of the least explosive and lowest big play rate in the league. There is no reason northwestern does not dominate as their competition has been much tougher than Rutgers and their number correlate so.
Auburn -3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units Ole Miss’s offense may be 9th in FEI and 3rd in S&P but they were held to 16 points and 7 points in the two games they played against respectable defenses (LSU and Alabama) They padded their stats in many of their other games but at the same time gave up a lot of points as their defense is atrocious. We have a very strong defensive advantage as Auburn is ranked #2 in S&P and #17 in FEI. Opposed to Ole Miss’s who is ranked 112th S&P and 97th in FEI and most of you know I love betting on the stronger defense. Auburns offense that has been struggling should put up some points finally as they face one of their easiest defenses to date. We have a strong advantage at the line of scrimmage as Auburns offense outranks Ole Miss’s weak defensive line in almost every relevant category significantly including adjusted line yards, opportunity rate, stuff rating, and sack %. Auburn should win this one easily as Ole Miss gets exposed for being an” explosive” offense only against crappy competition.
Minn/Nebraska Under 54.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units It’s tough to bet an under in Scott Frost offense but sometimes the numbers just make sense. Minnesota offense has been struggling as their S&P rating suggest they are ranked 103rd. Although Nebraska defense has been pretty horrible,(also been on the field a lot) they are ranked 79 in FEI and 90th in S&P which should improve against this offense as this is their weakest offensive opponent yet. Neither team has a big play offense, with Nebraska ranking 100th in IsoPPP and Minnesota ranking 111th in IsoPPP. Nebraska is desperate for a win and the noise should be a factor as they rally around Scott Frost. Minnesota, as always will attempt to control the clock and pace of play, which they rank 106th in the league in. Tough to call who will get the win in this one but it’s a safe bet to take the under.
Mississippi State +7 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
Mississippi State ML (+215) Risking .5 to win 1.08 units
Bookies are giving us too many points against one of the best defenses in the league. Miss. State ranks 4th in FEI and 10th in S&P. Their overall havoc rate is 11th with their defensive line doing most of the damage ranking 4th. This should cause issues for LSU who has struggled ranking 87th in havoc rate allowed. Their offense struggled against UF’s pressure allowing 5 sacks in that game. Miss. State also has a strong advantage on both sides of the ball in the trenches. Their offensive line is ranked 2nd in adjusted line yards, 1st in opportunity rate and 4th in stuff rating – which outranks LSU’s defensive line significantly who is ranked 80th in adjusted line yards, 52nd in opportunity rate, and 58th in stuff rating. Miss. State defensive line also outranks LSU’s middle of the pack offensive line in those same categories but not as significantly. Let’s take Miss. State to win for a half unit as I think there’s a great chance but we should at least win a ½ unit from the cover.
Kentucky -12.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units Well it took a while but Mark Stoops finally put together a defensive powerhouse at Kentucky this year like he did back in his FSU days. This defense is no joke, ranking 8th in FEI and 3rd in S&P against an impressive 18th ranked sagarin SOS schedule. Their overall havoc rate is 17th with their LB’s bringing a ton of pressure and havoc ranking 1st in the league which should cause fits for this Vanderbilt offensive line is ranked 102nd in havoc rate allowed. On the other side of the ball Vanderbilts defensive has been the worst it has been in years. They are ranked in the bottom 15% of all havoc rates, not applying much pressure to their opponents. The biggest statistical advantage for this game though will happen with Kentucky’s offensive front. They are currently ranked 13th in adjusted line yards, 16th in opportunity rate, 4th in power rating, 14th in stuff rating- and are rushing for 5.5 yards per carry. They should run for atleast 5 yards a carry against this Vanderbilt from that is ranked 86th in yards per carry allowed, 97th in adjusted line yards, 123rd in opportunity rate, 73rd in power rating, and 111th in stuff rating. The numbers point to this game being a big victory for Kentucky and Vanderbilt should be very disheartened after coming out strong last week to UF only to lose by 10 in the end.
Week 8 Results5-6)-1.74 units
Season YTD: (34-44) -15.88 units
One for tonight, more tomorrow morning.
Utah -10.5 (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
If you’ve been following along with my write-ups this season this is kind an obvious pick for me. I really like this Utah team on both sides of the ball and don’t think UCLA has the tools in place yet to be good under Kelly. The amount of injuries UCLA has also is enormous. Utah heavily outranks UCLA in EVERY statistical category I compare including Offensive/Defensive S&P and FEI ranks and every line of scrimmage statistic. Normally with this kind of statistical advantage I would put two units but I hate Friday night PAC 12 games so sticking to one unit but we should win this one in a blowout. People think UCLA has some momentum after two straight wins but that’s against two awful teams in Arizona and California.
Week 9 Adds: UAB -16 (-105) Risking 2.1 units to win 2 units Biggest play in a couple weeks, even though I rarely watch these teams just because of the numbers. I love this play for many reasons. First off, we dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. UAB defensive line is ranked 2nd in sack rate and 30th in adjusted line yards. UTEP offensive line is ranked 126th in sack rate and 92nd in adjusted line yards. With UAB outranking UTEP in every other line category including stuff rate, opportunity rate, and power rating- on both sides of the ball. UAB outranks UTEP in FEI on both sides of the ball by 50 rankings, in S&P even more outranking their defense to offense by 89 ranks. The cherry on top is UTEP has had a slew of injuries including their starting QBs and have been rotating around as their offense continues to struggle ranking 118th in FEI and 124th in S&P. UAB wins big for my first two unit play in a few weeks.
Wake Forest +3 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units This one is my biggest “eye test” game where I have seen a good amount of these two teams and like Wake Forest better but do not have a ton of numbers to support it. Both teams’ defenses have been horrible all season and Wake’s defense is very thin due to injuries. We do have a strong advantage at the line of scrimmage though and Wake Forest should move the ball with ease. Wake Forest’s offensive line vs Louisville’s defensive line outranks them by atleast 50 rankings in every category with Louisville’s defensive line being one of the worst in the country. Wake’s defensive line outranks Louisville’s offensive line on average of 25 rankings as well in most categories. I like what I have seen from Hartman and think he has a lot of potential to be good despite the team struggling a bit this season it’s been against tough competition. I think Louisville’s offense will sputter out more and make more mistakes as they are not as fluid or efficient as Wake Forest has been this year. We’ll take the road dog and hope they pull off an upset as this should be a shootout.
Army +1 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units I was surprised to see the numbers in this game and the fact that Army’s offensive line stats significantly outrank the eagles. Army is ranked 12th in adjusted line yards, 8th in power and 3rd in stuff rate. They should easily rush for 5 yards per carry against this E. Michigan front who is ranked 113th in adjusted line yards, 40th in power and 99th in stuff rating. Army’s starting QB should be returning to the field this week after sitting out last week due to a hip injury which limited the Army offense but they still squeaked out a win as their system and o-line are effective. E. Michigan is also one of the most heavily penalized teams with Army team’s usually being more disciplined (although more prone to longer 10 yard holding calls). Army wins this one outright on the road by doing it in the trenches.
NC State -2 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units This NC State team sports much better numbers with a much harder SOS. Dave Doeren has dominated Dino Babers and this Syracuse team the last two seasons controlling the line of scrimmage averaging over 5 yards per carry last season and holding Syracuse to under 2 yards per carry. There is no reason to think this year will be any different as Syracuse continues to get gouged on the ground ranking 112th against the rush and NC state defensive line is stout ranking 16th against the run. Im always one to take the better defense and NC state has a better one according to FEI and S&P. The offense to defense differentials for FEI and S&P both favor NC state as well. Syracuse has had a schedule full of crappy teams masking as good teams like FSU, UNC and Pittsburgh giving us additional value as they are currently 4-2-1 ATS.
Mass/UConn Under 64.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units Strictly a weather play. May the clouds move in our favor. We need it.
UF/UGA Under 52 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units Kind of a no-brainer SEC under here. Both defenses are top 20, hold opponents to under 5 yards per play, and are in top 20 of big play rates allowed and isoPPP allowed. Their offenses have some strong numbers but mainly stat-padding against weaker competition. It will be interesting to see how UGA offensive line holds up against such a strong defensive line in UF. UGA is ranked as one of the best in havoc rate allowed while UF defense is one of the best at creating havoc in the back field. Both teams are in the bottom half of pace of play statistics with UGA ranking 107th. Points will be a premium and think this one stays well under the total.
Duke ML (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units I like Duke here to win a lot. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye where they almost upset Notre Dame but Notre Dame was shooting themselves in the foot a lot with penalties, turnovers, and gave up special teams TD. Duke on the other hand is coming off a tough lost to an under-rated Virginia team. Duke could not handle Virginia’s defensive line and blitz schemes that rank one of the best in the nation at havoc rate. That will not be the case against this Pitt team who’s defensive line is middle to bottom of the pack in most categories. Duke outranks Pitt on both sides of the ball in FEI and S&P. Also what I like about this one is the fact that Duke’s defense is one of the best at not giving up the big play while Pittsburgh is one of the worst, ranking 119th. Duke pulls off the win but will most likely be a close one.
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Time for a hot streak.....
5-6)-1.74 units