Let me make up for it by giving some real analysis. I mentioned that it's not always about the road team but could be about the home team's failure...
Central Michigan +14 over N. Illinois:
The stacking forecast has N. Illinois winning with 27 points to C Mich's 20 points, but the line is 14! You see, Nilly hasn't scored shit in the last two outings. We have ample evidence over years that teams in this situation tend to get overestimated when they become home and favored. It's a situational component that, when factored into the margin of victory, has an effect on an already decent looking forecast. In all fairness, the public gauge shows Northern Illinois winning 28-20, seemingly mitigating the theory, but not the line. The public gauge is looked at but not used in producing the play.
Akron +21.5 over Northwestern:
We have the same situation with Northwestern as bettors may be looking to see their team bounce as well from a rough week. The stacking forecast shows N'Western winning with 38 points to Akron's 16 points but when we factor that situation into the line we see a failure on Northwestern's part here.
The public gauge shows a 27 point game and confirms the theory behind the numbers. Again the public gauge is not used in any way in making the decisions for this Fund. This Fund seeks predictive behaviors, the public gauge is non-predictive.
One caveat here. Before this Fund began there were 4 plays that factored in this situation for the home team; those plays went 3-1. I do not expect bets that are in part arrived using this metric to perform at such a high level. There could some volatility but these bets have a near 60% expectation of winning.
We are exploiting the nature of the bettors when dealing with home teams and favorites here, it's a nature that hasn't changed, perhaps ever.
So, stick that in your insomnia pipe and smoke it.