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LeftOriginally Posted by KVB
Something to note about the Conference US. There were four games yesterday. The sharp forecast failed against the TOTAL in the first game and was successful on every other prediction (ATS, ML, Totals) the rest of the day.
Oh yeah, she's the frisky one. Just look at right hand going for the goodies.
Shea has that "fuk me" look about her too.
ACC
The sharp forecast says Louisville beats Duke 75-74. The public gauge says Louisville wins 74-72.
The line is there, the total at the gauge as well and the sharp forecast says an OVER. That total has moved away from my forecast. Notice, that when the line moves to Duke -2 that it triggers a bet on Duke +2 for the forecast.
I just mentioned the Vtech situation and here we see it again. Duke is in trouble here and I picked up Louisville -137 and -1 (-129) over Duke.
There are other factors involved in the decision making of course, but there’s just no time and space.
Big 10
There was some interesting line movement in game 1 with Illinois and Michigan. We may see a blowout. Interesting.
The sharp forecast says Michigan State wins 75-69. The public gauge has Michigan State winning 73-69.
The line opened at -5 and hit -6. It seems pretty dead on from a market value perspective. Both numbers are higher than the total open and it has moved that direction. Could this be an OVER?
I can tell you this. Money is being steered towards Penn St. and the market is trying to hide it. I see several indicators at extreme levels directly opposite of what I know is money flow.
That’s my explanation for what I see and I will continue to eye those indicators to see if the level out before game time. Otherwise, I’m getting the +6.
That line movement mentioned in the first game simply existing is just one piece of that puzzle. Other indicators are readily available...it's not the information, it's how you use it.
On Louisville ML as well, KVB.ACC
The sharp forecast says Louisville beats Duke 75-74. The public gauge says Louisville wins 74-72.
The line is there, the total at the gauge as well and the sharp forecast says an OVER. That total has moved away from my forecast. Notice, that when the line moves to Duke -2 that it triggers a bet on Duke +2 for the forecast.
I just mentioned the Vtech situation and here we see it again. Duke is in trouble here and I picked up Louisville -137 and -1 (-129) over Duke.
There are other factors involved in the decision making of course, but there’s just no time and space.
Lets cash this muthafukka.
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Big East
It moved from 14 to 16 by close. It was Nova in a blowout.
The sharp forecast has Marquette beating Seton Hall 73-72. The public gauge says Marquette wins 79-76.
At Marquette -3 we have a moneyline prediction on Marquette but a spread prediction on Seton Hall. This happened in both Big East games yesterday…the results were a perfect give and take. That Total opened closer to the higher public gauge but has moved towards my line.
I’m passing altogether here in the trading account. There are too many things that are split.
As per above, I'm taking Penn State +6 (-105) over Michigan State before some fukhead slams it by game time.
Let's see if they fooled me and it gets blown out. That money going to Penn St. is sharper than many would believe and some take here by the market is sure to result in some give down the road.
I have Louisville futures. Was going to lay off.
Now you've convinced me that Louisville can do this today!
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Atl 10
The sharp forecast has St. Bonnies beating UMASS 71-69. The public gauge says St. Bonnies wins 76-72.
The spread opened with the public gauge but has moved away from my line. I’m not sure about this one. The Total opened right at that gauge, but dropped towards my line significantly. There’s a little give and take, yes and no, even in the market movement.
I’m still waiting to see some money form a pile, and then we’ll splash that pot.
Big 12
The sharp forecast has Kansas beating TCU 79-64. The public gauge says Kansas wins 80-70.
That line opened at Kansas -8, there was a drop early, but it has since gone to -8.5. I’m not surprised at the drop. While it’s obvious Kansas is a bettors darling here, I know of groups taking the underdog, even the upset. They can be sharp and have been burned today already.
I have to take the shot here and counter all that pressure not being shown in the line like a good contrarian by taking TCU +8.5 (-105) over Kansas.
I like the upset too.
Conf USA
The sharp forecast has UTEP beating Rice 75-68. The public gauge says Rice wins 76-72.
Finally we have a disagreement over the moneyline between these two numbers. As it stands that money is fairly split but the books opened with public numbers (like they have all week) and may be paying the price. The books keeping Rice favored here is a bit of a market adjustment to the forecast behavior.
With UTSA not covering the sharp forecast had its first fail against the spread in this conference but of course the 16 point moneyline succeeded again.
Now there are two sides playing. One seeks a moneyline fail against the sharp forecast. They are strong, they keep rice favored.
The other is emboldened by recent success and will see movement and steam as confirmation for more success. I’m countering those less sophisticated participants and the forecast by taking Rice -121 over UTEP.
Let the market lead others into the abyss by taking advantage of known behaviors and reactions.
The line went to -6.5 instead.
If that blowout holds. I may be a part of the take here and the final score will look more like an attempt to demoralize the Penn State backers. That plays into my statement above about opportunity down the road.
Of course I hate to lead early, and am not, so let's see if Penn St. can pull out a cover.
SEC
The sharp forecast has Alabama beating Miss. St. 67-65. The public gauge shows Alabama winning 67-63.
Pretty close and the line right there as well. It opened at 3.5 and moved toward the sharp forecast. The Total opened low, and has moved towards the forecast. I still think there is pressure on the OVER that is not being shown. I think they are taking action on that OVER and they like. It’s a bit suspicious. I smell an UNDER in that game but let’s see how it plays out.
I think I posted that last SEC game after it tipped. I didn't hit submit. Fawk.
This is getting crazy with the posting.
Also...
The line hit -5.5 so I passed. It may still be Temple.
Pac 12
The sharp forecast has Utah beating Cal 68-62. The public gauge has Utah winning 68-66.
The line opened at -2 (public gauge) and move towards my line to -3.5. The Total opened right between the numbers at 132 but has dropped past my line to below 130.
Not much to say on this one except that pressure on Utah is warranted, value has evaporated and I think Cal doesn’t cover the opening line.
It’s looking like a pass in the trading account though I am tempted to take Utah by the looks of the first game in this conference so far. Looks can be deceiving of course, and we have time before tipoff.
Atl 10
The sharp forecast has George Mason beating Fordham 65-63. The public gauge says G. Mason wins 70-65.
The spread opened between these numbers and even moves a tick away from my forecast. This game may have less action and is fairly balanced I think we will see basically slight ticks reflecting that old adage about the public liking favorites and overs.
The Total opened between the numbers as well and did a half tick up. It is pretty vanilla. I know it may seem as though the bettors has abandoned Fordham but that’s not necessarily true. Tickets hit the favorite but there can be more to the story.
There is a natural market metric involving give and take that will drive money to Fordham. I want to take it given the balance and uneventfulness of line.
Both Rice and Penn St. may be blowout losses for me today at least it sure appears that way. I have reason to believe bettors losing those games are also seeking Fordham. Perhaps that’s part give but only a small part as there’s few things driving action on this game.
There may be a play yet in this uninteresting issue but because of expected volume and who it placing the action it may be best to sit this one out. It could another loss for these groups.
It's not what they bring, it's how the bring it.
This shows to a small extent when you see those bold plays above, some of the reasoning, and see the 20 point blowouts.
It's best not to let those kinds of scores effect decision making.
AAC
The sharp forecast has Tulane beating Tulsa 75-71. The public gauge had Tulsa winning 79-73.
The forecast is predicting a moneyline upset here while the public gauge near the market. The Total opened between the numbers above at 150.5 but has moved to 147, much closer to my line.
So do we have an upset here? We might, but it’s awfully early in this conference tournament to see that forecast pay. The game is in a while and there is info to be gained but I wanted to get this forecast out there…I need to get some lunch.
are you saying that fukker planned on givin' my bit-tittied babe a Cleveland Steamer?????
fuk that, you cannot shit on these:
now that u mention it, my wife, while naked and being very playful in my six series on the way back from new orleans on I-10, had about six truckers drivin' like this trying to keep up with me.......Perhaps just some really good road head. Some girls can make a trucker crash if you nomsayin'.
When I wrote this the 17 point dog was winning the game. Now Oregon leads by 14 points.
It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.
here's in-truck video from that airborne semi just before impact:
Shit, I should have posted the upset odds here...lol...to offset some of those losses....I have to take the shot here and counter all that pressure not being shown in the line like a good contrarian by taking TCU +8.5 (-105) over Kansas.
I like the upset too.
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Big 10
The sharp forecast has Iowa beating Indiana 77-71. The pubic gauge has Indiana winning 83-82.
We have a moneyline split and the spread is closer to the public line but the line has moved away from the numbers. The Total opened between those numbers and has moved towards my line. Some of these total markets move a lot, and you can see how they sharpen.
I can see the pressure on Indiana, some of it market moving, that keeps this line out of whack. This is not likely a mistake in my forecast as there are some constraints the keep it there. These pressures include the flow of money through betting populations.
The forecast calls for an upset and I have a many reasons to take Indiana. This becomes a game where it really should be Indiana……but…
I want to pass here but an Indiana win here would actually help settle some of the take from those earlier blowouts.
I have to take the shot with Indiana -2.5 (-105) over Iowa. Let’s hope this isn’t a middle and let’s hope we get that settlement early, because it doesn’t exactly show patience.
I may be over estimating the importance of this game.
Conf USA
The sharp forecast has Louis Tech beating UAB 78-62. The public gauge shows Louis Tech winning 75-68.
The lined has ticked upward from Louis Tech -4 to -4.5 and you can see why. The Total is honed towards my forecast.
Some metrics indicate UAB but I think they don’t exhibit patience if employed here. It’s a tough call and I am passing on the trading account for this game.
AWESOME analysis, kvb....
tell me what three-team parlay out of all it I should make!
ACC
The sharp forecast has this game a 74 to 74 tie between VTech and Florida St. The public gauge says Florida St wins 82-78.
The spread has moved away from the numbers but the Total towards the numbers. This is the second game we’ve had with a tie, the other also in this conference with Pitt vs. Gtech. The raw score edge went to Gtech but Pitt won the game. This time, the raw score edge goes to Florida State. I like Florida St. here but will pass for plays as money is split fairly well in this conference.
Big 12
The sharp forecast Wet Virginia beating Texas 72-65. The public gauge shows West Virginia winning 78-65.
The line has moved towards my forecast and started closer to the public gauge. The Total has ticked one half point towards the forecast. There is some pressure on West Virginia to fail here but the public likes them.
Note that my forecast has failed against the spread and moneyline in every game so far in this conference. After failing miserably with Kansas, a WV win and Texas cover would fit nicely as a settlement. Of course, the line has shifted enough to mess with the value of West Virginia. This game could settle with an 11 point margin of victory, but look for Texas to play close.
Big East
The sharp forecast has Butler beating Xavier 79-69. The public gauge shows Butler winning 76-70.
The line is with the gauge but has ticked towards my forecast. Butler will probably hold true to it and cover. The Total went away from the forecast but I can see other metrics indicating the money is split with Total. There are pressures both ways.
I‘m passing here to and I am out of time for tipoff. I like the UNDER here against the opening line of 147, but that 143 is too low.
Hopefully we'll work on that as we narrow down teams towards the semis and finals when teams are less and money is bigger.
Right now parlays will be tricky. The give and take goes between conferences (USA hitting all forecasts vs. Big 12 failing in all forecasts) so it is tough to hit them all. It's hard to predict which conference will do what even when you know its coming.
I was a little rushed there for the 4 o clock games, typing to the end. That’s why there’s not much about the Butler Xavier game.
AAC
The sharp forecast has UConn beating South Florida 67-64. The public gauge has UConn winning 72-59.
I have this much closer than the spread, which again is at the public gauge. It trader from UConn -13 to -14 but has since came back towards my line to -12. Look at the Totals in the forecast and gauge. The opening Total was 130, it trader to 131.5 and then back to 130.
It’s tough to manipulate an already sharp line. We’ve seen Totals move quite a bit the last couple of days, and they will, but now you can see the 8pm Eastern game get sharpened and honed.
As far as the upset and underdog, sure the sharp forecast shows a close game but that line sitting so high leaves a very tempting upset moneyline value.
That’s called a sucker’s bet; pass on this issue.
Fordham is playing close and win or lose, or cover or not, it probably should have been a trading account play like Indiana…for the settlement factor.
Atl 10
The sharp forecast has George Washington beating St. Louis 71-63. The public gauge has GW winning 68-60.
The line opened at GW -8. There is a natural market metric that is used to drive money in these markets. Those who understand the game get the metric. It is independently influencing both teams and is responsible for the line increase on GW. This is combined with other metrics to show me that, in fact, this game should be GW, but…
The line has moved into triggering a play on St Louis and I have taken it with St. Louis +9.5 (-105) and +413 over George Washington.
I think the books are taking a position here and have been all day long and that this game comes down to the final shot.
Big 10
The sharp forecast has Northwestern beating Rutgers 66-64. The public gauge says Northwestern wins 66-57.
This line opened at 8, ticked towards my line, but has since been driven to NW -8.5. Similar to the last game, many metrics point to Northwestern and the public likes them too. This is why the line has moved.
I see a position accumulating and even though it’s not completely one sided have picked up Rutgers +8.5 (-105) and +352 over Northwestern.
It may be tough to get both of these last two plays but the odds have me playing them both. I am siding with the forecast ATS but going against the moneyline predictions.
Good Luck.
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