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[Fidel_CashFlow]

You must be showing some improvement Cash? Some? Any? Pretty soon you'll be a year out. Something should be better.

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[Fidel_CashFlow]

smokenjoke

Fidel my lil biatch




[/COLOR]

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[omedo]

I read that shit wrong, that total was a bad play. I should have know, in hindsight I can see the land mine waiting as Iowa outright beat Wisky. Of course it was going to be tough to get both bets.

Tonight it's Iowa State...the same forecasting method has them outright winning by the raw score(its a tie adjusted), just like 12 point underdog Iowa last night, but this time as 8 point dogs to West Virginia.

So much for give and take, just give baby...

Short Description

Basketball - 861 Iowa State +7½ -105 for Game

I also have it at 8 points.

Too many other reasons including a contrarian view to get WV.

Let's see if I read this one right.

Good Luck.

didnt you won that bet allready with Iowa +12?

[KVB]

didnt you won that bet allready with Iowa +12?

Yeah, hit with Iowa +12 but lost the Iowa St. +8 the next night.

Dropping in quick to say I picked up some more Mickelson to win at +1200.

There are a lot of solid golfers that can win this thing and doubling down may not be the most risk averse way to play it, but in golf, if we have a winner, we need to get paid...

Short Description

NCAA Basketball Futures - NCAAB Men's Basketball Championship 2016/2017 - Odds to win - NCAA Basketball - 2016/2017 - Florida State +1800

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - PGA WGC Mexico Championship - Odds to win WGC Mexico Championship - Phil Mickelson +1600

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - PGA WGC Mexico Championship - Odds to win WGC Mexico Championship - Phil Mickelson +1200

Good Luck.

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[Da Manster!]

In honor of KVB, the final battle between good vs. evil from the 1981 horror classic "Scanners"......this scene is considered by many horror experts to be one of the best ever in cinematic history...way before the CGI crap that most movies have today, this film was light years ahead of its time for special effects and gore...

[Da Manster!]

here is the whole movie for your enjoyment!...the final battle ends at 2:09 from my previous post...you can skip to that mark if you want to see the exciting conclusion and how both the fight and movie ended!...

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[KVB]

Here’s one with, in some sense, a similar case as the West Virginia Iowa St game we just saw…Minnesota vs. Wisconsin.

My sharpest forecast has Minnesota winning this game 77-65.

The non-predictive public gauge says Wisconsin wins by 4 points.

Clearly there’s pressure on Wisconsin to not only cover but once again, it’s a senior night. Wisconsin opened a 6 point favorite and moved to -8.

The originators know there is Minnesota action and essentially made them easier to take. With the West Virginia game I decided not to talk about the senior night type characteristic, I should have...

What we are seeing isn’t uncommon and happens year to year this time of year. Money is being split, being pulled away from Wisconsin on a big night for them. The same thing occurred with Iowa and West Virginia…senior night.

What else, from a market perspective, is similar? How about the 8 point line? I posted about neglecting the give and take with Iowa winning and then dipping back into the well for Iowa St... of course the play lost. CFL thread readers understand where I'm going with the similar line.

So if senior night in West Virginia gives the seniors the cover in the end, and we know that occurs this time of year, appreciating the give and take of the market, what’s the play?

Do we bet against the seniors? Maybe they win, but don’t cover? I think so. Stick with the forecasts; they do well now and will be something valuable to read during tournament time.

Long term I have Minnesota here and put them in the trading account. Let’s see how powerful that senior night characteristic really is, can the seniors pull it off again?
Good Luck.

Short Description

Basketball - 835 Minnesota +8 -105 for Game

[KVB]

It seems like I lose a lot of bets when I post the girls, but fuk it...

[KVB]

It is risky going against the senior night game when you can see the money is being split. For me, in both games, I see other metrics telling me that a less sophisticated betting population is being steered towards Wisconsin.

This changes percentages, in a dynamic way...and I say this far a reason.

I've been reading these senior night games as traps. Maybe it's just another senior night...it was in WVA.

[KVB]

[KVB]

Some time back I opened a discussion in the thinktank regarding this.
Well, not so direct but was expected to address this subject.
Now i think i get where you stand on the issue.

I think I should go back to using expressions like it should be Team A, but...when describing some of the settlement type situations, like the superbowl. I did that a bit with totals in this thread.

I always say, it's not what they bring, it's how they bring it. Which brings me to a word about percentages. And something posted in this thread in the SB aftermath...in a bit.

[Jayvegas420]

KVB, what do you think of Denver at +4 over SDST?
Was PK at my book this morning.
Is this game at neutral site cause SDST is bad OTR.

[KVB]

Posted forecasts have done well in this thread, but posted trades in the trading account no so well.

In fact, I've been terrible recently...both before and after taking a break. Early golf winnings and open successful parlays have kept that account afloat. Even take out losing forced playoff plays and the expected golf droughts between wins, and we still see a terrible performance.

I haven't been the best example to FlyMe. I know it's sports and these things happen, but I still want to apologize.

[KVB]

KVB, what do you think of Denver at +4 over SDST?
Was PK at my book this morning.
Is this game at neutral site cause SDST is bad OTR.

Sharp forecast says SDST winning 81-68.

The Public gauge says SDST wins 78-74.

It's a suspiciously low opener for sure. To speak in the rare ATS sense, streak breaking bettors are pressuring that Denver line, but obviously not enough as the numbers speak a bit louder.

By the same token, that low line will make those suspicious bettors flock to Denver. That's a couple of market wary groups lining up against the spread movement.

Someone's getting sucked in on this game. I'm passing, focusing on the tournaments coming up.

But you can see there is market pressures and money driving action all over NCAA hoops this time of year.

[KVB]

...It's a suspiciously low opener for sure. To speak in the rare ATS sense, streak breaking bettors are pressuring that Denver line, but obviously not enough as the numbers speak a bit louder...

You know there are streak riders too and that adds to the pressure on SDST. One of the reasons I'm passing with the sharp forecast is that this game indicates a close one, and therefore movement matters.

It's easy to identify the split money here and there is just too much on the side of the forecast for me to go with it.

If anything, this game falls into the "fade the public category" but with further inspection it becomes a pass for me. That includes deciding that it is "loaded" with too many unsophisticated indicators.

The market is getting action on teams it got little on from a public perspective all season long. This works to our advantage during tournament time for sure, but just not this conference tourney. I'm trying to be patient. Trying being the key word.

[Jayvegas420]

Sharp forecast says SDST winning 81-68.

The Public gauge says SDST wins 78-74.

It's a suspiciously low opener for sure. To speak in the rare ATS sense, streak breaking bettors are pressuring that Denver line, but obviously not enough as the numbers speak a bit louder.

By the same token, that low line will make those suspicious bettors flock to Denver. That's a couple of market wary groups lining up against the spread movement.

Someone's getting sucked in on this game. I'm passing, focusing on the tournaments coming up.

But you can see there is market pressures and money driving action all over NCAA hoops this time of year.

Line movement was identical last time SDST played.
I'm on Denver 1st half +2(-110)
+4 (-115) & ML (+155)

[KVB]

Minnesota leading at halftime...

[KVB]

Line movement was identical last time SDST played.
I'm on Denver 1st half +2(-110)
+4 (-115) & ML (+155)

Good read.

It should be Denver, but...



It used to be a clean way to read the market, but anymore these late halftime points, breakdowns, fouls, buzzer beaters, and whatever else have really created noise with those results.

I like the bet. Good Luck.

[smokenjoke]

Posted forecasts have done well in this thread, but posted trades in the trading account no so well.

In fact, I've been terrible recently...both before and after taking a break. Early golf winnings and open successful parlays have kept that account afloat. Even take out losing forced playoff plays and the expected golf droughts between wins, and we still see a terrible performance.

I haven't been the best example to FlyMe. I know it's sports and these things happen, but I still want to apologize.

You Good!!!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7QU1nvuxaMA

FcLk Fidel

[KVB]

You Good!!!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7QU1nvuxaMA

FcLk Fidel

Fuk Yeah smoken, fuk yeah!

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[KVB]

It is risky going against the senior night game when you can see the money is being split. For me, in both games, I see other metrics telling me that a less sophisticated betting population is being steered towards Wisconsin.

This changes percentages, in a dynamic way...and I say this far a reason.

I've been reading these senior night games as traps. Maybe it's just another senior night...it was in WVA...

Just another senior night.

[KVB]

[Jayvegas420]

Good read.

It should be Denver, but...



It used to be a clean way to read the market, but anymore these late halftime points, breakdowns, fouls, buzzer beaters, and whatever else have really created noise with those results.

I like the bet. Good Luck.

1st half wasn't even close. They tried to make the +4 interesting down the stretch but, it was a lemon.
A clear stay away game for sure.

UNLV -12.5?

[DwightShrute]

[Auto Donk]

didn't the original meme with this photo have "suckin' kahk" instead of eatin' puzzy???

[DwightShrute]

didn't the original meme with this photo have "suckin' kahk" instead of eatin' puzzy???

no idea.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

but still