[KVB]

The sharp forecast says Winnipeg wins with 40 or more points to Hamilton’s 36 points.

The stacking forecast gives Winnipeg 39 points to Hamilton’s 17 points. Unsophisticated numbers produce a blowout, for the most part, by Winnipeg in a high scoring game but the public gauge has Winnipeg winning 36-31.

The Total opened between the numbers, close to the stacking forecast. I’ve often said the stacking forecast is better about being on the market Total than the others. Despite appearing low, this Total has the bets fairly split between analysts and bettors.

I have indications that we may see an Over here as recent streak breaking bettors that have been emboldened with Under plays as the market turned from the shakeout give a little back. For those bettors, the money may be a little higher, but their desire has waned a little.

The spread obviously opened low and has many suspicious, including me. Winnipeg’s raw score in the sharp forecast is actually closer to 50 but translating those scores leaves us with the “40 or more” prediction. So when I say “40 or more to 36,” it is pushing more than a 4 point victory for Winnipeg.

The low line is reflective of the market thirst for that first Hamilton win; along with intentions by the originators. We saw a similar situation in the first game this week between Edmonton and Ottawa, less the movement across the pick.

When looking at the ratings, Winnipeg is looking at one of the highest raw ratings of the season. Further, when watching the ratings in relation to predicting team performance, we tend to see extreme ratings pose a negative indication. The best teams “regress to a mean” while the worst teams do the same.

The sharp forecast has fared well against the moneyline this season and the most recent successfully predicted upset was with Winnipeg, again at the point of the market turn after the shakeout.

...Because of the give and take markets and the structure and bets I see on each side of tonight’s game, it is likely the favorite or the Over will come in, but not both.

From a market analyst perspective, it is nearly impossible to determine which one will come but judging by the sharp forecast, the OVER is a much more likely scenario...

Last night it was the favorite and the Under and tonight I assert the same premise. This time, because of the sharp forecast, I expect to see the favorite or the Over, but not both. Also, this time, we have metrics leading to conclusions and not the toss-up we had yesterday.

Metrics indicating the upset and the low line in the market have directed me to pick up Hamilton Tiger-Cats +2 (-103) and +115 over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

After taking many bets on Hamilton this season for many reasons, and offering higher plus odds all season so far, the books can now pay a very low number at +115 for the Hamilton backers. Further, the way Winnipeg has been clutch with getting moneyline wins for their bettors and that security, history shows, will work against them here. That’s part of how they bring it.

Also, while countering the sharp forecast on the spread and moneyline, I am pressing the forecast on the Total with a well-priced OVER 59 (-101) for Winnipeg versus Hamilton.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I have struck again at the Total with at a very slightly different price of OVER 59 (+100) for Winnipeg versus Hamilton.

Good Luck.

[Hngkng]

Over is my play for this game. Hamilton can score but gives up a lot.

Winnipeg must settle for TDs tonight and not like the past few games where they settle for FGs. they move the ball well but getting TDs is their issue.

For Hamilton their red zone D is awful, so I expect TDs from them tonight.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast says Winnipeg wins with 40 or more points to Hamilton’s 36 points...

Including and since week 3, when predicting the favorite to win, against both openers and closers, the sharp forecast has been wrong only once.

It was game two of week four when Calgary, a 6 point favorite, was the predicted winner but lost to Montreal 30-23.

At that point, each team had played only 3 games.

[KVB]

Pressure on the dog coming into the markets.

Ra77er? Are you moving markets again Ra77er?

[Hngkng]

I wouldn't be surprised if Hamilton won. Like I said, generally when a team change coaches, they get an immediate boost. Although they didnt do a HC change, they changed their DC, and OC.

[KVB]

The bottom fell out on the line, I guess I beat the closer...

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Are these Tcat clowns going to give an effort tonite?

Some heads have already rolled. BTW, HAMILTON owns Johnny Manziel rights.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If this game isn't on ESPN, does it show up somewhere on DirecTv?

[Hngkng]

Well as we expected. Bombers move the bell but can't score TDs.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hammy gets break. Medlock hits upright, so not even a Rouge.

[KVB]

If this game isn't on ESPN, does it show up somewhere on DirecTv?

Might be on ESPN 3.

I have it up online at WatchESPN.

Hamilton also owns the rights to Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III.

Hamilton playing better defense tonight, the Over not looking so good, at least this half.

[KVB]

I’ve picked up Hamilton Tiger-Cats +10.5 (-119) LIVE and +322 LIVE over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I also picked up Hamilton Tiger-Cats -1/2 (-110) 2^nd Half over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I also picked up Hamilton Tiger-Cats -1/2 (-110) 2^nd Half over Winnipeg Blue Bombers...

This is a mistake. I actually took Hamilton Tiger-Cats -120 2nd Half over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

I did not get the spread. My mistake in posting.

That second half play carries extra risk as the two teams can tie for the second half and still kill the 10 point Hamilton tease.

Because of this organic factor, the -120 becomes the better option. I was looking at the wrong line when I wrote it.

[KVB]

The metric I'm looking at there is that if, in this situation, it's not Hamilton, then I would expect the 10 point or even 12 point tease level to be killed.

Again, it has to do with the environment, including bookmaking techniques and results leading up to this game and this week.

I could have easily mentioned the tease kill with a wrong bold play, it's consistent with the sharp forecast raw score I mentioned in the post. Sometimes I have to pick and choose what to write, and the tease killer comes into play given the second half spread and the halftime score.

Alright, enough.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Here comes Hamilton.

Already lucked out, w/ Med missing 2 FG.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, HAM is bad. Austin to get canned?

[Hngkng]

Wow, HAM is bad. Austin to get canned?

He and the president of the Ticats are too close of friends to get Austin fired. He deserves to be fired, but instead he got a new OC, and new DC.

Austin is the problem in Hamilton.

[Hngkng]

Too bad that game didn't go over. My biggest worry ended up costing us, Winnipeg only got 3 TDs, but clearly should have gotten more. They can never convert in the redzone, and end up kicking FGs.

I still believe the over was the right play, just didn't work out.

[KVB]

For tonight’s game the sharp forecast gives Ottawa the narrow moneyline edge with 28 points to Toronto’s 27 or 28 points. The raw score gives Ottawa a .5 point edge and that’s enough for tracking purposes for this thread to consider it an upset forecast...

There was a mistake here. This was the final game of week 5 and Ottawa’s second game that week and because of this it was overlooked. I discovered the error in week 7, as Ottawa didn’t play week 6.

The sharp forecast gave Toronto the slight moneyline edge with 24 points to Ottawa’s 23 or 24 points.

When keeping the records, there are only two changes from the original post. Toronto opened a -1.5 favorite and the line closed at Toronto -3.5 with a static Total of 54 points. Toronto won the game 27-24.

While this changed the forecast moneyline prediction to the favorite, making it successful, it did not change the spread result. With the ½ point discrepancy, Ottawa was still the forecast spread bet. The ATS result was a failed prediction against the opener and success against the closer…this did not change with the corrected forecast.

The other change that bothers me because I hate mistakes is that the corrected forecast now predicts the UNDER, not the OVER. The posted Total was 54 and the game ended with 51 points. The forecast was successful in this game, not a failure against the Total.

As far as analysis and any other metrics are concerned, like the spread result, nothing else is influenced enough to change either my analysis or predictions, that game and moving forward (this was a pain and took time to verify). The spread not being influenced means that the week 5 analysis wasn’t significantly influenced. Also, I wasn’t really posting about Totals at that point.

In short the mistake made will result in a different Total and moneyline result for the forecast; both of them in favor of the forecast and a lot of wasted time making sure there wasn’t any other issues.

Accurate records are important and it may be that readers aren’t that concerned with the early forecast (both teams had played at least 4 teams by that point), or with the forecast results. I am careful not to edit posts so that the original forecast is always pure.

But to keep it real I had to disclose this error. I will note that it wasn’t the originally posted forecast and the difference between them when I post results a bit later.

[KVB]

Another set of bold trading plays completely dusted. At least it's only week 8 and the market has likely shown the worst of it's shakeouts.

[Hngkng]

Tomorrow for me its BC -2.0

Yes I know Jennings is coming back, and the Riders are a lot better at home. But for me, Im willing to take a way better team (BC) at -2.0 than the Riders.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hamilton roster is stealing $$

[KVB]

Someone's got to play the role Chucky. The East doesn't have a team with a winning record.

Brutal.

[Hngkng]

Someone's got to play the role Chucky. The East doesn't have a team with a winning record.

Brutal.

I believe the East doesn't have a team with a positive turnover ratio.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Winnipeg has good chance to get to Grey Cup via East 3-slot.

[Hngkng]

Winnipeg has good chance to get to Grey Cup via East 3-slot.

Every year fans say that, including me. But the east always pull out a grey cup appearance out of their ass.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has British Colombia winning with 36 points to Saskatchewan’s 31 points.

The stacking forecast gives BC 34 or 36 points to Saskatchewan’s 20 points. Some unsophisticated numbers will reach a 57 point game with BC winning by about 7 points and the public gauge has BC winning 30-24.

The Total opened at 54.5 and has once again traded near the stacking forecast, moving toward the sharp forecast. The spread opened early with BC -4, and traded lower. Most houses opened with a lower number from -1.5 to -3 and the line has since settled at 3 round the world.

This is a rematch from the final game of last week in which BC covered as favorite with the Under.

For the last two games, based on the forecast, I talked about having an expectation of the favorite or the Over hitting in each game, but not both. In both instances, the favorite covered in Unders.

For this game I have the same expectation of the favorite coming in or the Over, but not both.

I don’t have as much time today to write full explanations on my thinking. I have seen reason to counter the sharp forecast in terms of both the moneyline and spread. The line movement has been a little erratic and reflects the desire for action on both sides of the ball.

I think the books are getting more action on the “better” BC team and the extra half point gives me enough to counter and pick up Saskatchewan Roughriders +3.5 (-108) and +145 over British Colombia Lions Lions.

There is some history here with Saskatchewan popping up in the sharp forecast as an underdog prediction and failing. It’s not highly influential but it is noticed.

In a similar fashion to yesterday’s debacle, I have also picked up OVER 56 (-102) for Saskatchewan versus British Colombia.

I sought the underdog and the Over yesterday’s trades and hit neither bet. While this looks like a chase, different metrics have come into play here based on the flow of money and the individual teams, warranting the trades to counter the forecast spread and moneyline.

The market pull back from 56.5 to 56 while writing this post also triggered the Over play. Unfortunately, some metrics show a danger of a 55 point game and are highlighted with these line shifts but the low vig trade makes it worth the risk.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

On the line move, I’ve also picked up second entry point with Saskatchewan Roughriders +150 over British Columbia Lions.

Good Luck.

[Hngkng]

Man I hope you win the Saskatchewan bet. In fact I'm cheering for you to win that!

howver I'm betting BC -3.0

[KVB]

On the move, I added one more entry point with Over 55 (-108) for Saskatchewan Roughriders versus BC Lions.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I was able to get one more entry with Saskatchewan +145 LIVE over British Colombia.

Good Luck.

[mackave]

Got riders too, even tho I'm from BC..

[KVB]

Watching closely here. The game is showing a pace of Saskatch and Under but one of those is likely to turn.

I think Saskatch wins tonight so we may have a second half bet unless we see one more score, likely from Saskatch, before half.

This will turn the 2nd half bet into a gamble, just what the books like.