[ChuckyTheGoat]

I wish the line was a bit higher. Would be easier to back Ham at +14 or so.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 36 points to Hamilton’s 17 points.

The stacking forecast shows a similar Calgary win at 39-17. Various less predictive lines show range from a 15 point to 19 point win for Calgary with the non-predictive public gauge showing Calgary winning 35-20.

The Total opened at 54.5, between the numbers and has ticked slightly away from the sharp forecast, closer to the stacking forecast. Once again, the Total numbers seem fairly sharp as it does create some indecision or even cause a pass for some bettors. The movement we’ve seen has not been very significant.

The line opened with Calgary -12.5 and we’ve seen a slight tick towards all the numbers.

This game is pretty straightforward and is the second game today. There are many groups on Calgary and only some contrarians looking to get back the Hamilton loss. I see a lot of pressure on Calgary for a lot of reasons, including the apparent mismatch. The pressure on Hamilton to win and cover is about all they have and much of the pressure to cover is being alleviated by other metrics. It’s there, but the give and take nature of the markets makes it weaker in this environment.

I see the first game shows the underdog with a 10-0 lead but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that game get a little closer before it’s said and done, to make it difficult to follow the money.

As far as the flow of money is concerned, a Toronto win or cover will likely drive money to Calgary and seeing Toronto with the early lead may be doing just that. Based on what I wrote for the first game, we would need to see Toronto give up some points and maybe the game in order confirm this deception.

Alternately, Toronto staying dominant to the end would show a pure situation and surely drive money consistently to Calgary.

... While, from a market perspective, we are likely to see one dog and one favorite against the spread, we could see two favorites. Two dogs come in very low in metrics with little variance...

If the underdog should stay ahead the whole game, an argument could be made that the least likely outcome combined with the indicated bets in Calgary could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, putting the final group of analysts either off of the play or onto Calgary.

That straw would break Calgary’s back as well and shows just what it takes to get a double digit upset in a North American sport.

[KVB]

I looks like Saskatchewan scored a field goal and is starting to turn around that early Toronto dominance. Last time I was predicting gameflow to lead us to a play I was walked into which was a blowout the other way.

Some bettors never forget those kind of results and can be swayed from winning analysis and numbers based on situational results. This usually only benefits the bookmakers.

[KVB]

The expected Toronto lead, to drive money to Calgary, combined with the Saskatchewan comeback has led me down the obvious (if you’ve been reading) path. I have to leave now and am making a play without all the evidence (one reason closing lines tend to get tougher is that the more time leading up to the close, the more information that can be processed and the more evidence that can be generated).

Regardless, I have picked up Hamilton Tiger-Cats +12.5 (-105) and +485 over Calgary Stampeders in the trading account.

For the more aggressive trading and second entry point, I have also picked up Hamilton Tiger cats +13 (-117) and +485 over Calgary Stampeders.

I was led to slaughter once this year, let’s see if it happens again.

Good Luck.

[crackerjack]

A Calgary slaughter...ouch. Best of luck next time.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A Calgary slaughter...ouch. Best of luck next time.

Weird league. Now, teams seemingly score at will.

[Art Vandelay]

Best parity this league has seen in years - and then tonight happens... 60-1 - you have got to be kidding me! That's as disgraceful of a performance as I've ever seen in this league - just brutal! C'mon Hamilton

[Jayvegas420]

I am adding Eskimos -14 to all my parlays this week.
I'm surprised this hasn't moved to 16.
Hamilton won't bounce back!

[jrgum3]

Am I crazy to take the Argonauts +5 tonight? I just think they'll play well at home against an overconfident Stampeders team who won big last week against a terrible Hamilton team. Could be a trap game for the Stampeders.

[Jayvegas420]

Edmonton & Calgary are the two best teams in the CFL this year. Between the two I believe Eskimos are the stronger overall team. Especially defensively.
If Toronto is gonna keep this game close they have to play defense. Getting into a shootout with Calgary won't bode well for the Argos.
I guess the simple answer is, yes you might be a little nuts but, that's why they play the games!

GL

[kingdom]

Am I crazy to take the Argonauts +5 tonight? I just think they'll play well at home against an overconfident Stampeders team who won big last week against a terrible Hamilton team. Could be a trap game for the Stampeders.

sorry, but this would be retarded. Calgary has a PF of 213 vs. a PA of 121. that's damn near 100 pts difference. while toronto is 152-163. Not to mention last two against Toronto, Calgary has won by 46 combined. Don't overthink it. This is Calgary EZ.

[KVB]

The expected Toronto lead, to drive money to Calgary, combined with the Saskatchewan comeback has led me down the obvious (if you’ve been reading) path. I have to leave now and am making a play without all the evidence (one reason closing lines tend to get tougher is that the more time leading up to the close, the more information that can be processed and the more evidence that can be generated).

Regardless, I have picked up Hamilton Tiger-Cats +12.5 (-105) and +485 over Calgary Stampeders in the trading account.

For the more aggressive trading and second entry point, I have also picked up Hamilton Tiger cats +13 (-117) and +485 over Calgary Stampeders.

I was led to slaughter once this year, let’s see if it happens again.

Good Luck.

As it turned out, the first game last Saturday wasn't close in the end, but the lead change and pace early on sent me to this play. I may not have had the second entry point had we been closer to game time, but I still would have taken the original bet.

The market has exploited one factor after another for two weeks and walked those contrarians right into game two Saturday.

We were meant to be demoralized here. It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it. I'm not sure I can give a better example or display than what we've seen.

Perhaps now the reader can understand what it actually takes for professional football teams, from a market perspective, to end up with a blowout like 60-1.

It would have been nicer to have been on the right side while the point was being made, but I went where the market metric advantage was sitting.

I almost consider it the ultimate lesson in why I say it's not what they bring, it's how they bring it and thought of stopping in this thread. But there is a forecast to post each game and I'll post it. I'm sure we'll get many more fine examples of the market showing some weight, and that being played out on the field.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 30 or 31 points to Toronto’s 10 points.

The stacking forecast shows Calgary with 31 or 33 points to Toronto’s 20 points. Virtually every number has Calgary covering this spread and less sophisticated methods will show the Total closer to the market like the stacking forecast with points closer to the mid 50’s. The non-predictive public gauge shows Calgary winning 31-17.

Both the spread and the Total have moved towards the forecast and given the numbers above, it shouldn’t be surprising.

This is the first game of the week and while the market clearly seeks a settlement regarding underdogs from more than just the simple “there’s been 1 upset in three weeks” standpoint, it is the beginning of moneyflow this week. Of course, the market is also balancing out a bit from the first weeks of the season. Regardless, with the techniques the books have been throwing out there, the pendulum is set far in motion, far beyond simple balance of dogs and favorites.

Similar to the NFL playoffs, we’ve had a glimpse into how that simple streak in the public eye can also have hidden in the market other money stacked.

This is one reason that I am putting the stacking percentages forecast out there. We can see how the market lines up (like with Totals today) with the two sharper forecasts and then use that data. I’ll post some records and stats soon.

Anyway, Calgary has covered as a favorite twice but we should remember that in Week 5, the sharp forecast was influenced by some stats giving Saskatchewan the big win. Outside of that, the numbers were with Calgary by far.

Those Calgary bettors following the large numbers are emboldened and so is the public that bets them. This actually could show a ripe time for an upset and while it seems crazy to counter Calgary after last week, that line opened pretty low.

Metrics are still screaming a bit here and I would caution against Calgary. I’ll be honest, I’m not on top of some market data that would help us refine the probabilities and lead us to a better decision regarding the moneyline.

Because of the line movement, however, in this particular environment, I did pick up Toronto Argonauts +6 (-105) over Calgary Stampeders for the trading account. I realize it’s the first game of the week and will accept that risk for this line and price.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

For those not familiar, when I mention the trading account it refers to a slightly different approach than the long term trading dictated by the sharp forecast.

The trading account is similar to a riskier, short term approach to the markets, like a trading stocks. I am using a market analysis around a sharp forecast to hopefully take us off some losers or put us on some winners.

The trading account can be more volatile and have multiple entry points up to a certain maximum. It can be a little more liberal with money management, but still trading in only 1 unit risked increments.

I've said before that anyone just blindly tailing could follow the sharp forecast and should be just fine. I still maintain that but offer a current analysis in hopes of getting a little more insight into what's happening in the markets each week.

For tracking purposes, I've always put the sharp forecast up against the market with as little as 1/2 point discrepancy...because I am hard on myself like that. Anyone who's read my posts this year knows I certainly don't pad results, and if anything, short myself. Anyway, in general, the larger the discrepancy from the market , the better probability of success with the forecast.

I will acknowledge that there is a danger zone when the discrepancy is too large (and we've seen that this season already) and other posters I consider to be extremely knowledgeable and sharp have actually said the same about results that are too good when talking about there own work...adding to the validity of my studies.

I wouldn't worry too much about that for the CFL season alone though, if it looks suspect, I'll bring it up for sure.

[KVB]

As it turned out, the first game last Saturday wasn't close in the end, but the lead change and pace early on sent me to this play. I may not have had the second entry point had we been closer to game time, but I still would have taken the original bet...

It's tempting to try to make up for the extra lost bets somewhere down the line, but we all know that is not a good way to approach the markets. It's especially important not to fall prey when using a trading strategy that can be more volatile.

But for just the two original bold losses, they are just that...losses. Even then, with losses, bettors should understand the perils of the need to get something back. It reminds me of this post...

This brings up another good teaching point for beginners and even those veterans who can get to a 55% to 60% win rate. Very few bettors realize that nearly 95% of the time you can expect to be behind. With proper money management your expectation is still to see new highs in account value only 5% of the time.

This is the reality of the mathematics of the situation. But this lesson is more psychological. If you know that this condition exits then you can better cope with it, not chase losses, and not constantly feel like you are behind and have to “make a move” to get caught up simply because your roll is less than its highest point.

Eliminate the psychological need to catch up and you are bound to make better decisions moving forward. This thinking may not add a winning play to your day, but it sure as hell may take you off of a losing play.

In sports betting, a penny saved in this fashion is most certainly a penny earned...

Oh, and Toronto scored first, here come the sharks...




Edit: Calgary already tied it up.

[KVB]

I picked up Toronto Argonauts +2.5 (-105) 2nd HALF over Calgary Stampeders.

It's going to be a long season.

Good Luck

[Jayvegas420]

Eskimos line dropped 4 points.
What did I miss?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I picked up Toronto Argonauts +2.5 (-105) 2nd HALF over Calgary Stampeders.

It's going to be a long season.

Good Luck

Thought it was a good play. Winds up covering on final play of regulation.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Eskimos line dropped 4 points.
What did I miss?

Good question. I didn't see any Reilly injury news.

Someone really messing w/ that line.

[jrgum3]

A little weird that the Eskimos game dropped 4 points. I think they cover the number but I'd rather bet the over 56. I don't think Hamilton can stop anybody and Edmonton should have their way tonight. I also like Ottawa -3.5 tonight over Winnipeg.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Winnipeg beating Ottawa 36-33.

There is a split here as the stacking forecast has Ottawa winning 30-27. This moneyline is consistent with many levels of handicapping and the public gauge of Ottawa winning 33-31. We do see even higher score predictions and the offered total is one of the highest line’s we’ve seen all year…at the stacking forecast.

I wish I had time for more Total speak and should have talked about them yesterday. There has been a string of Overs and the market, in that visible sense has pressure for the Under. Likewise, the sharp forecast has failed three times in a row after being right on the number the fourth game back.

Once again there’s that idea of the market being stacked both behind the lines and in that visible sense. I know we all hate to use the word, but we can’t ignore the fact that an Under is “due.”

Some groups are sidelined, the sharp forecast has been switched to an Over, after those three Under failures, the recipe is right for an Under, but have we been patient enough? I can say this, the market seems pretty split on the bets, but we know the Under is being sought, and being countered by the public.

I don’t have much time now so I have no choice but to pass on the first spread and moneyline. It’s the first of two games and you can bet your ass the market will be looking for one favorite and one underdog. Should game one play out in a manner consistent with the predictions above (not the sharp forecast) and be right at that 2 or 3 point line, if it’s ambiguous, we could finally see Hamilton get a win. If you’ve been following some of my failures here, I hope you can see where I’m coming from with this.

There are many elements at play here and I only wish I would have started sooner to get more in the thread. So you know and because I won’t get to it until a bit later, the second game shows an Edmonton blowout across the board.

For now, I have picked up UNDER 58 (-107) and UNDER 57.5 (-105) for Winnipeg Blue Bombers versus Ottawa Redblacks.

The metrics call for this play and the biggest negative in the formula is actually the fact that this is the first of two games. This increases the risk as game one is often meant to steer money and as you can see, it has been steered a direction. Let’s see if I have been patient enough.

One more thing, the sharp forecast having a swapped moneyline winner prediction from everyone else is very likely due to methods in how teams and their ratings are compared to themselves and the league. Some of this goes back to the use of means and medians, a bit of which was linked somewhere in this thread. It’s not the whole picture, but it is most certainly part of it.

I can feel a real lengthy educational post coming soon…lol. There have been a few great examples to learn from already, some I’ve seen after looking back.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Good question. I didn't see any Reilly injury news.

Someone really messing w/ that line.

If you've been following the story I've been telling you may be able to tell there are shakeouts occurring in the market place. There also have been signs that the market has bottomed and we are seeing a turn.

I may delete this next statement...lol, but know that the late second half cover was one of a few signals we've seen that indicates such a turn. As that second half line moved, I should have hit other prices for trading, it was very good bet that, not that Toronto would cover the second half, but rather that Calgary would not cover. In fact, it was one of the best bets we've seen all season long.

It was so good, in fact, that the 2nd half moneyline practically had to push.

Never forget, it's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[KVB]

The point, Chucky, is that there are market forces on that underdog that are swelling and we see that in the marketplace. I fear, because we do see it, because it is shown, that the shakeout could be headed on a further slide.

But as of now there is strong indication in the metrics that the turn is near.

From the visible side, we've seen four straight favorites cover with Overs, but that's not very good information to bet with by itself.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I understand what you're saying re: market forces. But I march to my own drummer.

I do my own work + make my own decisions. Just not sure where the 4-pt move came from. Hamilton's recent play has been dreadful. I would have thought the line was more likely to climb (than fall).

[KVB]

I understand what you're saying re: market forces. But I march to my own drummer.

I do my own work + make my own decisions. Just not sure where the 4-pt move came from. Hamilton's recent play has been dreadful. I would have thought the line was more likely to climb (than fall).

I definitely appreciate that Chucky, and my analysis is really meant to be use alongside any handicapper's own work.

My point is that the 14 point line was too high, by any standards, and matched the public gauge I have for the game. In my opinion, the should have dropped from there. It should have been closer to the 10 point line to begin with. In fact, we are seeing it pull off of 10 points, even after the shift to 9.5. The obvious, in my opinion predictable, display of movement, I mentioned, is a concern for me.

In all cases, the books like that the line movement is a mystery to some and creating that confusion tonight could be a large reason why the line opened so high.

Players aside, there is no question that the originators knew what would happen at that high line, and now the market is pretty tight.

[KVB]

For the second game tonight the sharp forecast has Edmonton winning with 40 points to Hamilton’s 20 points.

The stacking forecast shows Edmonton scoring 40 or more points to Hamilton’s 13 points. Virtually every way you cut it, Edmonton has the better numbers and the public gauge says Edmonton wins 34-20.

The line opened at the gauge and has moved away from the forecast. The Total has seen little movement, opening just above the gauge and only showing light pressure to the upside, if any at this point.

I’ve discussed this game above and you probably guessed I’m not surprised to see the lead in game one already switch multiple times and to see the second half start right off with Ottawa taking a 3 point lead. You might even say I was looking for it…

...Should game one play out in a manner consistent with the predictions above (not the sharp forecast) and be right at that 2 or 3 point line, if it’s ambiguous, we could finally see Hamilton get a win...

We’re seeing what was expected but this time I can be around for the kickoff of the next game. This is where it helps to have been around this thread over the last few weeks. Eventually Hamilton will get a win this season, but it’s possible we’re seeing just what it takes to keep them on the side without a win, as opposed to just what it takes to actually get them a win.

Regardless, the market is stretched at both the spread and Totals and game one was right at the 29 point mark at halftime, and now sits at the pointspread.

Ambiguity is the name of the game as no hints are offered thus far leading up to game 2; and that alone can be a hint.

[KVB]

After three quarters Ottawa leads by 3 and there are 43 points...right on pace for the 58 point Total.

With Winnipeg close to scoring there are no hints and game two starts in 15 minutes.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[KVB]

If anyone's still wondering why the line is actually below 10 pay no mind to the 5-0 vs. 0-5 records.

Remember, just two weeks ago, Hamilton was leading Edmonton until giving up the lat TD and 2 pt conversion to lose 31-28, pushing the opener and covering the +3.5.

It's no wonder it appeared to be tough to hang 14 point line out there.

[KVB]

I've picked up Hamilton Tiger-Cats +10 (-112) over Edmonton Eskimos.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Both teams working very hard to give Ottawa a 3 point lead with 57 Total points and Winnipeg threatening to tie it up with a minute to go.

Whatever the answer, it's most certainly ambiguous. In fact, game two has started and this game is just now tied. It's too late to get the Under in game two.

There may be a hafltime bet in it, but something tells me it will be a bad deal.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If there's been a weird late score in CFL this year...it's invariably hurt me. I know, cry me a river.

Hamilton scores a TD! We'll see if it's a game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Didn't like em going for 2. But it was a well-designed play. Hammy leads early.

[KVB]

I went LIVE with Hamilton Tiger-Cats +13.5 (-124) over Edmonton Eskimos.

Live bets are tough to tell and will likely be tallied in a separate record. The vigorish is high, but I wanted to show what I was playing.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I also picked up UNDER 58 (-119) LIVE for Hamilton versus Edmonton.

Good Luck

[KVB]

If there's been a weird late score in CFL this year...it's invariably hurt me. I know, cry me a river.

Hamilton scores a TD! We'll see if it's a game.

Oh, it's going to be a game alright.

lol.

Yeah, sitting at 30-26 and watching the 1 point, then poor kick, then easy FG range, I think we all saw that OVER coming.

Fawk.