[RudyRuetigger]

C'mon rudy, we're running outta time!
Tatdy called my bluff last night and took 150 points from me. I need those points back.
Put down the bottle for 3 mins and let's make a bet!

I hope he hit n ran your dumb ass

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good luck on the games, boys.

[Jayvegas420]

I hope he hit n ran your dumb ass

GL Rudy, thanks for stoppin' by.

[Jayvegas420]

Good luck on the games, boys.

I ended up taking me over 55 and parlayed it with gastulman and made a separate parlay with the over 55 and the Jays

Let's get these Chucky!

What are you on officially tonight?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jay, I got the early UNDER 58. Maybe it lands 56, and we both win the total.

Have some Calgary -10.

Been saying at various times in these threads, I sometimes mangle my bet-timing. I never have a real good feel for which way these CFL #s are going to move.

[RudyRuetigger]

unreal

jay had sex last night

[KVB]

...After seeing how they’ve brought the action I’ve predicted, I’ve gone in line with that thinking and have picked up Saskatchewan Roughriders +10 (-105) and +350 over Calgary Stampeders.

For trading purposes similar to last time, I have also picked up Saskatchewan +10 (-110) over Calgary. I’ll explain the multiple entry points in a later post about tracking...

At least I wasn't as wrong as that Rudy guy in this thread...

[KVB]

[KVB]

[Jayvegas420]

When the total moved 3.5 points, I should have known that the under was a gimme.
As for Calgary covering DD, I am pretty surprised and we will have to keep an eye on the Stamps, as they appear to be improved offensively.

Thanks again Rudy for not taking my 150 points

[KVB]

For tonight’s game the sharp forecast gives Ottawa the narrow moneyline edge with 28 points to Toronto’s 27 or 28 points. The raw score gives Ottawa a .5 point edge and that’s enough for tracking purposes for this thread to consider it an upset forecast.

The stacking forecast gives Ottawa 30-31 points to Toronto’s 24 or 25 points, the public forecast shows basically the same with a 55 point total.

For the Total, the numbers are all very close to the market and, accordingly, the Total has not moved much. If anything, we’ve see some pressure pointing towards the slightly higher sharp forecast.

The line opened with Toronto -1.5 and has moved away from the forecast creating value on the Ottawa side for both the stacking and sharp forecast. The books have managed to avoid paying an upset and may be drawing upset money one last time this week.

The general public has a sense that Ottawa is at a disadvantage on the road having only played 5 days ago and this too will play into the line increase. This public thinking helps split the money, taking pressure off of Ottawa.

This line move has a sense of deception to it as well. By moving through 3 to 3.5 the books are generating money on the underdog that they are not showing. Pinny has once again played into the movement and held at -3, keeping the underdog plus odds.

Seeking the upset feels a lot like a chase and, while it would create some settlement there seem to be too many factors at play the send the metrics back to 50-50. Sure, from a value perspective that movement gives us an upset play but by the same token, for trading purposes, I haven’t seen enough value to warrant the risk.

This has the making of a very close game and could follow in the path of the last time these two met, where Toronto upset Ottawa 26-25.

Be careful with an Ottawa play a tonight, while it looks good from a few angles, it carries some real gambling risk. Perhaps it’s best to enjoy a good game that finds its way Over the offered Total, giving the fans something entertaining to watch…the public loves their Overs.

[KVB]

...Pinny has once again played into the movement and held at -3, keeping the underdog plus odds..

...too many factors at play the send the metrics back to 50-50...

Even if you're trying to read bookmaking techniques into the environment of moneyflow, signals get very mixed.


Pinny moved to 3.5 but acknowledging the pressure that would occur with that move, now have the favorite at plus odds.

This serves a few purposes, as another would be to generate action. Pinny likely didn't need to move off of 3 due to pressure but is more likely trying to generate action along with the deception.

[Jayvegas420]

Another close game right on the closer.
I am staying away from taking a side in the Winnipeg game but I am already leaning over 51.

[jjgold]

Jay we expect big things from you

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jay we expect big things from you

Don't pressure the guy.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast gives Winnipeg the win with 34 or 36 points to Montreal’s 27 points.

The stacking forecast calls for a 27-27 tie with Winnipeg getting the slight moneyline. The public gauge says Winnipeg wins about 26-23.

I can see more pressure on the Winnipeg despite the movements. As the first game this week, it will be best to watch the moneyflow and this first game could show some deception. I wouldn’t trust the line movements too much here as they are being used to control the flow of money and not indicative of “sharpness” or efficiency.

I’ll be on the lake today and don’t have time to offer much more information or a review of last Monday’s game. I’ll check in later but wanted to get these numbers in the thread.

Good Luck with whatever you play.

[KVB]

Another close game right on the closer...

...This has the making of a very close game and could follow in the path of the last time these two met, where Toronto upset Ottawa 26-25.

Be careful with an Ottawa play a tonight, while it looks good from a few angles, it carries some real gambling risk. Perhaps it’s best to enjoy a good game that finds its way Over the offered Total, giving the fans something entertaining to watch…the public loves their Overs...

It stayed Under but was decided at the end by the field goal. The public is getting used to the +3.5 being a play, it will be interesting to see how that plays out in the future, with +3.5's hanging a little sooner than the close, so people have more of a chance to pick it up.

[Jayvegas420]

http://www.tsn.ca/cfl/video/is-the-a...rising~1176524

[Jayvegas420]

What a finish!!!!

[Russian Rocket]

has this clown been making any money in this bitch?

or is he just posting nonsense links in here and waiting to ask his wife for another CAD refill?


don't get upset janitor - I'm just wondering if there is any cheese in here or not

[Jayvegas420]

You can read.

[Russian Rocket]

what's your record in here toothless clown?

I'd love to read it- but I can't find it.

[Jayvegas420]

Your posts are much better suited for the Trump thread.
Stick with your anti American threads & stay out of analytical sports threads.
You're a troll, not an analyst.

[Art Vandelay]

Awesome finish! Down 12 with under a minute to play and pull out the win - U gotta love the CFL. Especially when you money-lined the Bombers!

[tony_come]

Jaiest call me

[Russian Rocket]

Your posts are much better suited for the Trump thread.
Stick with your anti American threads & stay out of analytical sports threads.
You're a troll, not an analyst.

I've never seen an analyst with a broom in his hand - you're first.
Try not cry so much when you're being asked a simple question about your lousy record.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast says British Columbia wins with 31 or 33 points to Edmonton’s 20 or 22 points.

The stacking forecast once again calls for a 27-27 tie while the public gauge gives BC a slight edge in about a 55 point game.

The line opened with Edmonton -3 and has seen pressure on BC, consistent with all the numbers above. Further, there is public pressure on BC and the market still hasn’t seen an upset since I noticed it was hiding one.

I’m hoping tonight we do not see the upset, similar to yesterday because once again I have an idea of how the money will flow through tomorrow’s games.

I’ve been a bit busy this week and haven’t posted as much as I’d like to for these games. In terms of the forecast, there have been two moneyline failures in the last 8 games, both predicting upsets. We don’t have a lot of data, but remember, there isn’t much variance with the upset forecast performance and it is something to watch.

One thing I have done over the last few games is post some valid warnings. With this environment I must warn against a play on BC, as much as it is tempting. Edmonton has not lost a game and that pressure is mounting along with the public ticket buying and, of course, the numbers above.

Bets are going to BC, especially the moneyline. It shows in the spread pressure, and while the public does get paid on bets like this, it’s usually not when everyone else is in agreement.

Good Luck

[KVB]

I know this week's analysis has been a bit light and it's actually a pretty big week, considering every team has played at least 4 games. I'll try to make up for the lack of analysis in the future.

I haven't been able to focus as much this week but at least the forecast is posted, there some value in that whether you follow or fade...lol.

[Jayvegas420]

Edmonton closed at 2.5.
I dont expect to see an upset here either.
I stayed away tonight. Small bet on the over.

[Jayvegas420]

Just your typical 108 yard TD!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Just your typical 108 yard TD!

CFL is great for wacky plays. I think the record is 128-yard return TD.

Props to EDM. Great start to season.

I wonder how Reilly + BLMitchell would compare to your average NFL qb.

[KVB]

CFL is great for wacky plays...

No lead is safe, literally. The three down method seems to show a lot of giving the ball back to the behind team in the fourth and doesn't allow for much chewing of the clock when the games get close.

So much drama...lol.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast shows Saskatchewan winning with 27 points to Toronto’s 23 or 24 points.

The stacking forecast gives Toronto the edge with 27 or 28 points to Saskatchewan’s 22 points. As numbers used get less predictive and unsophisticated we can see a close game and the winner vary between the teams. The non-predictive public gauge has Saskatchewan winning with 24 points to 22 for Toronto.

We have a low opener with Saskatchewan favored by 2, shows a lot of support for the underdog, particularly with the close numbers, but the spread has moved toward the forecast.

Last night’s Total was right with the forecasts and the stacking gauge and tonight virtually all the numbers come in just below the line, but the Total has moved up slightly. The Total is a tough call here and has almost moved into what would be a value play on the Under long term. This move may be intentional and the books may be starting bit of moneyflow, if only for Saturday. There are market moving groups taking the Over as well, but it may not warrant such a move. The books may be trying to add public money and a small amount of early steam to those bettors.

Despite taking some real market moving bets on Saskatchewan in accordance with forecast, the books have also taken their fair share of bets on Toronto coming from many different groups, of all levels of sophistication. The money is not just split, but the groups are split as well.

Someone gets it of course, and I think it Saskatchewan one more time. I think the flow of money and the market environment is still prime for that big upset and looking for Calgary to fail last week was obviously not patient enough as we saw one of the season’s biggest blowouts in that game.

So to not be deterred and looking forward to game two today we may see Hamilton get their first victory in a game where virtually all the numbers show a Calgary blowout. The metrics need results and the flow of money projected needs to see confirmation before pulling any triggers.

Before going ahead too far, I would expect some deception in this game and look for Saskatchewan to hit on the moneyline. Even with a less than three point line, it’s quite possible the spread will be in question to the very end. Toronto covering or winning does not necessarily take us off of a bet in the second game, but I wouldn’t expect to see two underdogs hit today. While, from a market perspective, we are likely to see one dog and one favorite against the spread, we could see two favorites. Two dogs come in very low in metrics with little variance.

Sometimes the actual result, isn’t the expect result based on predictive probability, and the recalculated metrics may still show an advantage. This is likely why the spread will be in question late in the game.

I’ve been right on the flow of games quite a bit and maybe I’m right here, maybe not. Of all the nights where I need to be available for the game two kickoff, I most likely won’t be. We have a formal party to attend at the worst time. Because of the odds, I may have to pull the trigger without all the evidence on Hamilton, and I sure would hate to do that.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Can't believe Hamilton has been this bad. They're staring at 1/3-season w/o getting a win.

Look at Eastern standings. Really hard to see the Western4 not stealing Eastern3-slot.

[KVB]

Can't believe Hamilton has been this bad. They're staring at 1/3-season w/o getting a win.

Look at Eastern standings. Really hard to see the Western4 not stealing Eastern3-slot.

I was looking at the standings too, a lot of season left but between Ottawa and Hamilton there is some making up to do for sure.

Hamilton on a bit of a slide, not covering the spread in the last three games as well. Ottawa has shown a little more success ATS.

I like to see give and take and hate to see some money just die with teams week after week. This could be Hamilton and I if I bet it I could be embarrassed with another blowout tonight in game two.

Tough to bet the bad teams and long term it's often best to stay away from them.