Originally posted on 08/12/2017:

Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
For tonight’s game the sharp forecast gives Ottawa the narrow moneyline edge with 28 points to Toronto’s 27 or 28 points. The raw score gives Ottawa a .5 point edge and that’s enough for tracking purposes for this thread to consider it an upset forecast...

There was a mistake here. This was the final game of week 5 and Ottawa’s second game that week and because of this it was overlooked. I discovered the error in week 7, as Ottawa didn’t play week 6.

The sharp forecast gave Toronto the slight moneyline edge with 24 points to Ottawa’s 23 or 24 points.

When keeping the records, there are only two changes from the original post. Toronto opened a -1.5 favorite and the line closed at Toronto -3.5 with a static Total of 54 points. Toronto won the game 27-24.

While this changed the forecast moneyline prediction to the favorite, making it successful, it did not change the spread result. With the point discrepancy, Ottawa was still the forecast spread bet. The ATS result was a failed prediction against the opener and success against the closer…this did not change with the corrected forecast.

The other change that bothers me because I hate mistakes is that the corrected forecast now predicts the UNDER, not the OVER. The posted Total was 54 and the game ended with 51 points. The forecast was successful in this game, not a failure against the Total.

As far as analysis and any other metrics are concerned, like the spread result, nothing else is influenced enough to change either my analysis or predictions, that game and moving forward (this was a pain and took time to verify). The spread not being influenced means that the week 5 analysis wasn’t significantly influenced. Also, I wasn’t really posting about Totals at that point.

In short the mistake made will result in a different Total and moneyline result for the forecast; both of them in favor of the forecast and a lot of wasted time making sure there wasn’t any other issues.

Accurate records are important and it may be that readers aren’t that concerned with the early forecast (both teams had played at least 4 teams by that point), or with the forecast results. I am careful not to edit posts so that the original forecast is always pure.

But to keep it real I had to disclose this error. I will note that it wasn’t the originally posted forecast and the difference between them when I post results a bit later.