[EaglesPhan36]

Alright, I gave this lots of thought leading up to that special time of year and I have decided this is how I am going to manage my money. Playing either a side or total in EVERY game of four conference tournaments, the conferences I have followed/played the most this season. I don't know if that gives me an edge or not, but it will keep me from playing too much shit over the next week plus leading into the Big Dance.

Also theorizing a specific way to play the Dance this season so as to keep the # of plays down. The plan hopefully is to be more focused and maximize the profits in a minimum amount of plays. Anyhow, hopefully I help provide some info even if you're against plays I lay out for myself. I will probably be a spectacular fade. Good luck and let's rape & pillage the bookies here in March boys.

Here are the conferences I plan on playing:

COLONIAL
SUN BELT
BIG EAST
BIG 12

Will get at it tomorrow with the Colonial once totals are posted.

[bigALbones50]

thats the whole key, to limit the # of plays, but there are so many games

[IAMWINNER]

I am playing every game until I die or run out of powder

[bigALbones50]

hahaha, shit ill need an 8-ball for thurs n fri, and thurs is st pattys day

[EaglesPhan36]

COLONIAL: GEORGIA STATE-WILMINGTON OVER 119.5 [-110]
The two regular season meetings went below this number as both finished UNDERs with set numbers of 122 & 122.5. Still, if you look at both teams through their last ten games - 16 of 20 combined between these two teams have finished over 120 points. Both play a slow, half-court style. Both shoot in the low 40s and average in the low 60s per game. Defensively, Wilmington gives up 67 ppg and Georgia State 64 ppg. Being a neutral site, I look at the road numbers for both here and both average less ppg on offense, but also give up more ppg on defense to even out to about their season averages. Georgia State comes into this with an interim coach after Rod Barnes was canned following their regular season ending loss to George Mason. Tough to gauge what effect this could have, but most seem to think the firing was a bit of a surprise even with the poor results of this team. That could galvanize this club as their coach has emphasized this week a need to rebound better, make more FTs and take better shots. That may lead to a more efficient offense & wilmington has not been the steadiest on defense - giving up 60 plus in nine of their last ten.

[757sFinest]

I am playing every game until I die or run out of powder

funny

[757sFinest]

Good luck EP with your plays. I too will be playing the CAA being that W&M and ODU are about 20 minutes away from me. I am actually leaving for richmond in about 10 minutes so I should get there at the start of the second half for G.Southern and Wilmington.

[757sFinest]

UNC Wilmington defeats Georgia State. Tomko and Rendleman combine to beat a deflated Panthers team. PK
Drexel defeats Towson but Dragons will struggle due to cold shooting. Towson +10
Delaware defeats Northeastern.Blue Hens sweep Huskies on the season thanks to Saddler and Carter. Delaware+3.5
James Madison defeats William and Mary in a very close game. W&M +7.5

[EaglesPhan36]

I thought about taking Wilmington, but with the coach firing at Georgia State ... I don't like to bet for or against a side right after that because you don't know exactly how the team will respond. I think Wilmington is the better team, but if State energizes behind their interim guy you never know. Have fun guy!

[757sFinest]

Thanks EP. Future brother-in-law lives up here so should be a fun weekend. Almost there. Anyone looking for a radio feed can go to espn950am.com

[EaglesPhan36]

COLONIAL: TOWSON +10 [-120]
Towson & Drexel in the 2nd game of the CAA tournament & a repeat of their meeting to end the regular season last week. No tricks to this one. Drexel is the superior defensive squad, limiting opponents to 59 ppg on 39% shooting this season. However, their offense is limited. The Dragons net just 63 ppg on 42% shooting. Towson is having a horrible season at 4-25, but they played Drexel close in both regular season meetings. The Tigers have shown some ability on offense with a 68 ppg average, including 36% from distance and almost 44% overall. Another large plus ahead of Drexel is their FT%, around 70% to Drexel which shoots just 60% from the stripe. Towson's best attribute vs. Drexel was keeping turnovers to a minimum with just 11 in two games. That enabled them to stay close even though they shot in the 30s both games and were outworked on the boards. Towson's defense has been porous, but somehow even with Drexel shooting 50% in one of the games - they lost by just three. This seems to defy logic and stats, but Towson seems to know how to stick with the Dragons and I'll take that shot with double digit points.

[EaglesPhan36]

1st game is brutal in Colonial. Gonna finish under again it appears, but Jesus H. not even 50% combined on FTs? I know they're not great FT shooting clubs, but at least 60% and that's an extra 4 points. Wilmington shit the bed hard today, shooting 32%. Georgia State apparently inspired with the interim coach. They shot well - 48%.

Guess nothing is too low with these two teams. Only about four pts. in the last 2-3 minutes too. Not even a FT hackers chance in hell to cash. Oh well, 0-1 to start.

[BiffTFinancial]

1st game is brutal in Colonial. Gonna finish under again it appears, but Jesus H. not even 50% combined on FTs? I know they're not great FT shooting clubs, but at least 60% and that's an extra 4 points. Wilmington shit the bed hard today, shooting 32%. Georgia State apparently inspired with the interim coach. They shot well - 48%.

Guess nothing is too low with these two teams. Only about four pts. in the last 2-3 minutes too. Not even a FT hackers chance in hell to cash. Oh well, 0-1 to start.

looking tough. it could still get there, esp with elimination game FTs in play, but rough start (and that's with Ga State having 18 assists on 23 FGs, unreal for a team that bad offensively). fwiw, i think long and hard before taking an over in the CAA tourney. the Richmond Coliseum is one of the worst shooting gyms around. cavernous, dark, all the backgrounds are brown or grey. not a terrible building, but as hoops gyms go, calling it a dump is an insult to dumps. saw Jordan and Dominique Wilkins play there in NBA exhibition eons ago and no one could hit jumpers because of the surroundings. made for a lot of dunks though. BOL rest of the way, EP36. like your Towson play, considering that and Creighton for the afternoon.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah. There's not generally too many teams in the CAA that are great for OVERs other than Northeastern. I just thought this one was too low even with their regular season results. Did not expect Wilmington to be this bad today. If they shoot even 40%, it's an extra 10 points or better and this is probably damn close to cashing ... but shit happens. Gonna be plenty of beats along the road the next week or so. Hoping to get 55% or so for a tidy profit.

[BiffTFinancial]

Yeah. There's not generally too many teams in the CAA that are great for OVERs other than Northeastern. I just thought this one was too low even with their regular season results. Did not expect Wilmington to be this bad today. If they shoot even 40%, it's an extra 10 points or better and this is probably damn close to cashing ... but shit happens. Gonna be plenty of beats along the road the next week or so. Hoping to get 55% or so for a tidy profit.

18 missed FTs collectively and UNCW shot under 30% from the field. just 67% from the line gets you 6 of the 10 points that you needed. rough. going back and forth between Towson and the under in that game, have that one at 61-56 Drexel. BOL to you rest of the day.

[saints1856]

EaglesPhan36, it's hard to beat a team three times in a season, and I think Towson can keep it close for a third time. +10 it is.

[EaglesPhan36]

Might hate myself for this, but going reduced juice at -105 and +9.5 on Towson now. Not gonna lay the extra for the half point.

[EaglesPhan36]

COLONIAL: NORTHEASTERN-DELAWARE OVER 132 [-110]
As I said above, Northeastern is the one Colonial squad that is abundant in the OVERs department. They hit OVERs in 20 of 27 posted games this season. Delaware wasn't that bad either with 13 OVERs in 24 games, two of those as pushes. Lately, both have been on OVERs tears with Northeastern cashing OVERs in 12 of their last 13. Delaware has gone OVERs in seven of their last ten. Their two regular season meetings split on O/U with the UNDER due to a poor shooting night from both. Of late, both have been scoring consistently at around or over 70 ppg through their last five. Defensively, they have been giving up 72-74 ppg on around 46% shooting each. In the 130-139.5 point range on totals, these two have combined to hit OVERs in 19 of 21. If this is going well, simply look in the FT column as both teams do a decent job of getting to the line when they aggressive.

[EaglesPhan36]

Command Center: 1-1 [-0.10]

[BiffTFinancial]

nice hit on Towson, EP36. i like that NE/Delaware over, may play that myself.

[EaglesPhan36]

Sweet. Late game is a tough one. Two options to go on for W&M vs. James Madison. Either W&M plus points or OVERs. Leaning Bill & Mary.

[mikejamm]

Great call on Towson EP, yeah FT shooting just killed the Geo.St - Wil. game.

[BiffTFinancial]

Sweet. Late game is a tough one. Two options to go on for W&M vs. James Madison. Either W&M plus points or OVERs. Leaning Bill & Mary.

i'm going to put a solid cap on that one as soon as i get home. went to W&M. their first round failings in the CAA tourney had become a tradition (they didn't win or cover a single CAA tourney game in my 4 years), but Shaver has turned that around somewhat. i lean W&M + points too.

[EaglesPhan36]

Interesting that both teams won on the road in the regular season meetings. Like that the Tribe shot 50% or better in both meetings and kept the loss within five points. Covered both and four of their last five. That's definitely where I am leaning right now too.

[757sFinest]

delaware ml for me +150. gl with the over ep. sitting at the bar getting ready to head back to the coliseum. and w&m +8

[mikejamm]

You pretty much sticking with those 4 conferences EP? Do you see any value in the SEC? Thanks

[EaglesPhan36]

Trying to keep my # of plays down mike. There's always plenty of plays to be made in all these tourneys, but you can go ape shit if you don't keep it tight. I picked those four because those conferences were where I played a lot of my games during the regular season and the Big East & Big 12 in particular because of teams I like (Syracuse/Kansas) are ones I follow a lot.

SEC is probably a good one to take a team at a nice price to win the whole thing since there really isn't one of the top teams who you can say definitively is the best.

[BiffTFinancial]

Interesting that both teams won on the road in the regular season meetings. Like that the Tribe shot 50% or better in both meetings and kept the loss within five points. Covered both and four of their last five. That's definitely where I am leaning right now too.

i like both Tribe and over. i think it's JMU, 76-73. not sure yet what i'm going to play, but that's how i see it. i think that this game may have a lot of fouls, their match-ups always seem to (W&M can't stay in front of JMU athletically, so they reach and foul a lot; on offense, they'll try to create contact and get easy points at the line).

[EaglesPhan36]

Northeastern laying a total f-ing egg in the 2nd half. Gonna be a hard road to hit the Over, but both teams are in the bonus so that might help.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gotta hope for OT or it's not gonna happen here. Northeastern shooting 34%, another craptacular performance from a team. Really if Delaware State wasn't fouling the hell out of them, NE would be cooked.

[BiffTFinancial]

need UD to make 1 of 2, and they do. c'mon, slide in for a lay-up or draw a foul.

[EaglesPhan36]

COLONIAL: WILLIAM & MARY +8 [-105]
Why not another dog as the dogs have barked & covered all three of the Colonial games today with two of the dogs winning straight up. W&M was solid in the two regular season match-ups against James Madison, winning on the road and losing by five at home. The Tribe shot well in both at 50% or better. James Madison did not cover the three point line well in the last meeting, giving up 9/18 shooting. W&M is very capable of getting hot from deep and staying in games with that alone or dying by the three. I think the Tribe need to come out hot like they did in the last meeting and not rely on having to play from behind in this one to have the best shot at keeping this close. W&M covered both the regular season games and have covered four of their last five.

[757sFinest]

Sorry about your over EP, poor shooting performance in these games. This place is actually tough to shoot in, the backdrop sucks. Beers are going down nice though, next one is for you!

[BiffTFinancial]

good choice. i think that's where i'm headed (along with the UDM/Valpo over). i'm telling you, the Coliseum is like shooting in a cave, i don't want this over unless i know there are gonna be a ton of FTs. Go Tribe.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks. Will listen to the eyes in the arena about NOT looking for Overs much here. Thought OT was gonna happen, but Northeastern chucked that away there at the end.