[BiffTFinancial]

yeah, they had their chances. all that they have to do in that situation is slip inside and they'll either get fouled or get a lay-up because a guy doesn't want to foul.

[EaglesPhan36]

What's been interesting is that one of the two teams in each game so far hasn't had shooting troubles, but the ones who struggle have REALLY struggled.

[757sFinest]

I actually decided to lay off the w&m +8. Decided to go wqith first half unnder 62. Good luck every one.

[757sFinest]

Oh well, getting shot out the building in this one, under is toast. Wm has come to play. The tribe is in the building tonight. Got a good buzz though.

[EaglesPhan36]

Hooray Buzz! Tribe are rock solid so far.

[757sFinest]

w&m is going to win this game

[757sFinest]

very physical game

[757sFinest]

i usuallly dont gamble drunk. free throws are going to be crucial. might play the under second half. maybe not. i'm rambling. shoulda stuck with my original play of of +8. oh well. no more plays for me tonight. going to enjoy the second half. the +250 for wm is tempting though.

[BiffTFinancial]

i'd expect the Tribe to start having a lot of 25 second possessions if the game stays this way. so long as they pick up enough fouls to get in the bonus early, they can do this.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looking very good right now. Bill might pull out the straight up upset. Just end in regulation fools!

[757sFinest]

Go tribe!! I played the +250 for second half for wm. Time to get drumkier of the winnings. Watch out cary streert , here I come!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Command Center: 2-2 [-0.20]

Superb day for the dogs in the Colonial. All dogs cover and three of four win OUTRIGHT! Saturday should be intriguing with the big boys coming out with Mason, ODU, VCU & Hofstra. I'm thinking one of the top four seeds is going to get picked off tomorrow. VCU & Hofstra are the two I am looking at closely to drop.

[BiffTFinancial]

Tribe! nice hit EP36. first game i look at tomorrow morning will be Tribe/Dutchmen, looking forward to it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Sun Belt Lines that I gotta research to kick it off tomorrow:

Troy/UNT -6
UALR -2.5/S.Alabama
W.Kentucky -10/UL-Monroe
Denver -4.5/FIU

Also thinking about making two futures plays in the Sun Belt. Lafayette at +1000 is likely one. Rajin Cajuns on an 11 game win streak and given huge odds here because they have to make it past top seed FAU in the semis, but they did beat FAU on the road during their streak. Other pick might be #2 seed Arkansas State at +250. No one really talking about the 2nd best team. Other possibility is taking another big price in North Texas. Loads of experience, just poor defending.

One big trend I read about for the Sun Belt tournament, lots of UNDERs in the tournament compared to the regular season when the league has more run 'n gun style teams. Something to watch out for.

[EaglesPhan36]

COLONIAL: GEORGIA STATE +14 [-105]
Georgia State draws the top dog, George Mason. The two regular season meetings were won by Mason, by seven and 15 points. Going to give Georgia State a slight edge here having already played once in this arena whereas Mason makes their debut today. We've talked about the shooting conditions and State seemed to be okay with them yesterday, shooting 23/48 from the floor. Two keys for me, free throws and rebounding. Georgia State has to avoid sending Mason to the line for extra points. Mason shot a ton of FTs against them in both meetings, but the 21 they got in the 7 pt. win is more in line with what will be needed vs. getting 30 or more. State outrebounded Mason in the closer game.

[IAMWINNER]

can you post any 2nd half plays on any games also

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm going to stick to full game plays myself, but if I am around looking at 2nd half lines - I'll post anything that sticks out.

[IAMWINNER]

What about WVU, they look hot and Siva is in foul trouble

[EaglesPhan36]

COLONIAL: DREXEL +180
Taking a shot here with Drexel against VCU. The Dragons did shoot well in their opener against Towson, hitting 52% from the floor. The Achilles Heel of Drexel though kept the game close as they missed 14 FTs. VCU comes in having lost four of their last five, while Drexel has won eight of their last ten. The two regular season meetings were split with both teams winning on their home floors by four points. Drexel did a good job of keeping the tempo where they want it in both those meetings. Oddly enough, Drexel lost the game where they held VCU to 29% shooting and won the one where VCU shot 44%. An easy difference sticks out though as Drexel turned it over 22 times in the loss and just seven times in the win. Drexel won the rebounding battle in both, dominating in the loss and going +5 in the win. Keeping VCU off the offensive glass will be a key. The Dragons clearly have an edge defensively as they allow under 40% shooting on the season, while the Rams allow 45% and have had trouble shutting down the long range shots at times. If Drexel can dominate the boards again and get an early edge due to their time already on this court and decent shooting night yesterday, they should give themselves a chance to get the win and move into the semis.

[EaglesPhan36]

Georgia State getting routed after a close 1st half. Mason clamped down and State with no answers. Too bad though they dominated Mason on the boards but gave them too many freebies on the line so far. 10 pt. difference on made FTs. Maybe if they can make a couple, they can sneak in the back door ... but not overly keen on that happening.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well this 2nd game has been a sunnuvabitch. Drexel cannot stop fouling in the 2nd half. VCU has 12 more points from the line and a five pt. lead. Drexel might sneak in and cover the spread. Took a shot here and Drexel had a chance, but FTs killed it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Layup at the buzzer by VCU wins it 62-60. Drexel covered the +5. Greedy assholes like me lost though.

[EaglesPhan36]

COLONIAL: OLD DOMINION -12.5 [-105]
This is more of a gut play perhaps than anything. The favorites have won both Colonial games today, although just 1-1 ATS. I think ODU is going to take heed from George Mason this afternoon and look to lay a whooping on Delaware. The teams split their regular season meetings with eight point differentials in each, both winning on their home court. The Monarchs are an experienced squad that made the NCAAs last year and won the CAA tournament in 2010, so the setting of the Richmond Coliseum may not be that big a problem for them. ODU does two things extremely well, rebounding and defense. That should suit them well against a Delaware squad that does not routinely shoot the ball well. The Hens did shoot a bit better than their season numbers down the stretch and will have some confidence after shooting just under 50% against Northeastern in round one. Still, ODU allows just 58 ppg on 40% shooting. The ppg is #3 in the country and the FG defense is #45. ODU is not a high octane offense at around 66 ppg on 43% shooting for the season, but they have been smooth of late with a 71 ppg average on almost 46% shooting in their last five. They have topped 70 in four of the last five. ODU should have learned a lesson from their last meeting with the Hens as they led by 10 at the half and let Delaware bounce back and take the lead in the 2nd half before putting them away. ODU needs to be all business today to avoid any chance of an upset. They seem focused down the stretch with double digit wins in seven of their last eight wins.

[EaglesPhan36]

SUN BELT FUTURES

Florida Atlantic +250
The regular season champs & favorites here. They stumbled a little in the last month, but won three straight to close out the regular season. The Owls have an experienced coach in Mike Jarvis and play balanced ball.

Louisiana +850
Hottest team in the league with eleven straight wins. They don't particularly dominate in any one area, but hot teams can be dangerous in these settings.

*Both these teams are on the same side of the bracket, but I think the winner of the Sun Belt tournament comes from the top half. Bottom half is Middle Tennessee & Arkansas State as the seeds. MTSU did not bode all that well vs. the top teams and Arkansas State lost a key starter to injury in the past few days. For me, if the seeding holds, the winner of FAU & Louisiana in the semis is the team to beat and I think taking these two will yield a team in the final to be able to hedge against.

[EaglesPhan36]

SUN BELT: TROY-NORTH TEXAS UNDER 150 [-110]
The tempo figures to be fiercely fast, but away from home both these teams did not fare as well offensively during the season. Troy does not shoot the ball well [40%] and while North Texas' defense was problematic during the regular season, the Mean Green showed some improvement in their last three by holding opponents well under 40% from the floor. Troy struggled mightily giving up 77 ppg on the season, but also showed some better chops over the last month of the season. They allowed 40% FG shooting over their last five. North Texas will get Josh White in the lineup tonight, but this is still a team with a short bench due to injuries. Troy will look to wear them down with numbers and tempo. The regular season meeting was played to 170 points @Troy with the Trojans shooting 56% from the floor and UNT netting 47%. The Sun Belt tournament traditionally in the past few years has gone away from the regular season offensive explosion and both these teams played more UNDERs down the stretch with Troy going UNDERs in five of their last six and UNT in their final three. North Texas is the key to me here. This was a team that figured to be in the chase for the title this season, but faltered due to poor defense and injuries. Their coach seemed to adjust down the stretch by getting this team to play better defense. If this is going to finish under, that will need to be the case again tonight.

SUN BELT: WESTERN KENTUCKY -10 [-102]
The Hilltoppers were disappointing in the regular season, plagued by injury and inconsistency. They get new life now and face a poor UL-Monroe team that has lost 10 of their last 11. The regular season meeting saw WK crush Monroe 81-61 at home in early February. Neither team is a juggernaut offensively, but WK has a defensive advantage. Monroe allowed 47% shooting and 69 ppg, while WK allowed a tad over 70 ppg, but made opponents work by allowing 44% shooting. WK has an experienced trio that leads the team in scoring that should be good enough to help them hammer the warhawks here.

[EaglesPhan36]

SUN BELT: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL +5 [-105]
No great insight here, just think there is very little to separate these two. Denver was a very poor ATS team away from home, going 2-12 ATS on the road. Rebounding is a big thing here as Denver is not a great rebounding team. FIU shot very well in the regular season OT loss to Denver by nine. Big thing for them there was missing 16 FTs, well below there season average.

SUN BELT: UALR-SOUTH ALABAMA OVER 140.5 [-110]
Will take a chance on the OVER here. The regular season meeting went way over, finishing in a 92-79 South Alabama win. Both teams are struggling defensively with South Alabama giving up 70 or better in nine of their last ten. UALR gave up 70 or more in their last three. Both teams gave up points on the road, 73 ppg for UALR & 75 ppg for South Alabama on 46-47% shooting. South Alabama is OVERs in 9 of their last 12 and prefers a higher pace. If UALR stays with that pace, there should be points here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Old Dominion - where's the D? Too many turnovers too. Hopefully they can pull a George Mason and throttle Delaware in the 2nd half, but damn this day is sucking ass so far. Could be epic fade potential.

[EaglesPhan36]

COLONIAL: WILLIAM & MARY +5 [-105]
The Tribe played extremely well last night in pulling off the upset and draw a Hofstra team that they match up well with tonight. The two regular season meetings saw Hofstra win by three points with the last coming in overtime. The Tribe possess a weapon in the three ball that can keep them in this one. Hofstra allowed 22/50 threes made by the Tribe in those two games. Big key for W&M is fouling. They cannot afford to put a great free throw shooting squad in Hofstra on the line. If the Tribe make their threes early without becoming overly reliant on them and keep Hofstra off the line [needs to be 20-22 FTA tops], I think they'll be in this one until the end again.

[EaglesPhan36]

Fading me = big profits

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright, well barely lost the Under somehow after an 80+ 1st half, 152 the final. Western Kentucky came back to cover. That was big. W&M up two at the half.

[EaglesPhan36]

Another 2nd half where my dog got massacred. Need these last two Sun Belts. Colonial was a nightmare today. Stupid me.

[EaglesPhan36]

Colonial: 2-6 [-4.35]
Sun Belt: 3-1 [+2.90]

Well the Colonial kicked my ass today. Would have done better if I had just taken Drexel on the spread, but still not great. Good day to start the Sun Belt, couple points from going 4-0. Back again tomorrow to hopefully get better!

[EaglesPhan36]

COLONIAL: George Mason -5 [-109]
Probably a sucker bet here and remember, I am the Colonial FADE machine right now. That being said, VCU's trapping style on defense is the reason I am going for this one. That style does one of two things - creates turnovers and easy opps for the Rams or gets Mason wide open shots that they can knock down. In the regular season meeting, Mason hit for 47% from the floor and 9 of 16 from distance to beat VCU 71-51. VCU has been very shaky against the three pointer, whereas Mason is a slick shooting team that can get on a roll. VCU is fortunate to be here, hitting a last second shot against Drexel to advance. VCU did not shoot overly well, but won by getting to the FT line more. Mason turned up their defense big time in the 2nd half against Georgia State, turning a two point game into an absolute rout. Mason was respectable in all categories and especially great at taking care of the ball with just six turnovers - something that will serve them well today. I loved Mason's adjustments made at the half yesterday and they showed a team willing to sacrifice for the ultimate goal. VCU will be tough here due to their athleticism, but if Mason can keep them off the offensive glass and limit their FT opps where they got a lot of points yesterday ... Mason gets to the final

[EaglesPhan36]

I have got to stop changing my mind with these CAA games. I had the over marked, but jumped off due to the drop in the number. VCU dropping threes all over the place right now. Sheesh. Long way to go, but shitty start. Fade me Colonial style!

[EaglesPhan36]

COLONIAL: HOFSTRA TEAM TOTAL OVER 57 [-110]
The Pride draw a tough assignment in the defensive-minded Monarchs of Old Dominion today. However, Hofstra has been a solid scoring group for most of the season. They have only failed to score 57 twice in 31 games. They scored 64 in a loss to ODU at home this season. Hofstra did not shoot particularly well in that game, but did what they do best to add to their point total - make free throws. The Pride shoot 77% from the line, 11th best in D1. While not shooting that high a percentage from floor [43%], Hofstra is efficient in their point per possession scoring due to the FTs made + they boast one of the best players you've never heard of in Charles Jenkins - the CAA Player of the Year. If Jenkins plays like Jenkins and his supporting cast does enough, Hofstra will get their points today. Even against a stout ODU defense, I think Hofstra surpasses this number.