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Love the over in the Uconn game. Kimba has ended his shooting struggles at the garden shooting 52% so far in the tourny and the freshmen are playing much better than when they got blown out for their first loss this year against pitt. G L EP. Trying to hurry up my dog challenge in tennis.
Also given the 1 in 4 shot and what I looked at pre-tournament, one of the top four seeds will lose in the Big East today. Perhaps even two. Rating it right now as far as my thinking on the possibilities of the upset:
1. Marquette
2. St.John's
3. Cincinnati
4. UConn
Tons of points in that first half. Looking good!
Yeah. Only need 52. Could be the 1st upset coming here too of the seeds. Pitt has a tradition of flopping first-up the last two years.
I really like the way the Frosh on UConn are playing. Not shying away from the moment at all.Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
BIG EAST: ST.JOHN'S +140
Conspiracy? Kismet? Fate? Call it what you will, but I think the Johnnies are in a winnable spot today. Syracuse blew the doors off St.John's 76-59 on the road in the 1st meeting. St.John's did everything wrong in the 1st meeting, bad shooting, poor defense and too many turnovers. Since, both Syracuse & St.John's have taken off in the right direction. St.John's biggest issue will be Syracuse's length and size. They must do a better job of containing both Rick Jackson & Kris Joseph. Both teams shot about the same for the year with STJ at 45% and SU a tad higher at 47%. SU had the better defensive numbers as expected with the 2-3 zone. One area that I think will bite Syracuse in the ass at some point is free throw shooting. Lately, they have been better. However, they are 66% on the season and as an avid 'Cuse fan ... their FT shooting has been a constant source of Maalox moments. In a close game, this is a clear disadvantage for the Orange. What can St.John's do different today that makes me think they can win? Well, they can't be any worse for starters than they were in the regular season meeting. I trust Steve Lavin has found what to try against the zone after the failings of the 1st meeting. He's proven this season to be very adaptable. I think a key today is gettin Hardy to penetrate into the teeth of the zone and be the decision maker - beat his man or dish to the open man and trust them to score. He did not have a good shooting day vs. Rutgers, but got to the FT line plenty. Aggressive, yet patient play on offense by St.John's will keep them in this one. Passive play and they get smoked. They also must keep the rebounding margin close to even and find those elusive offensive boards.
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-10-11 at 01:11 PM.
BIG 12: KANSAS STATE-COLORADO UNDER 148 [-110]
I expect K-State to put forth another stalwart defensive effort tonight after seeing CU explode after a dormant 1st half against Iowa State yesterday. In the regular season, K-State allowed 50% & 44% shooting to the Buffs in losing twice. Levi Knutson was the surprising X-factor in both games as the Wildcats did pretty well against the more dynamic duo of Higgins & Burks. K-State played solid D down the stretch, holding opponents to 37% shooting in their last five. They held eight of their last ten opponents to 70 or less and would be advised to try to keep Colorado near or below that mark again. CU wasn't known for defense, but they did a number on K-State in both games. They held the Cats to 39/109 shooting combined. State showed better for the most part all season, but saw their lowest output of 56 against Colorado last time they met. Hoping for a combo of rust from K-State and gassed legs from CU to keep this total low.
Wager Not Made Due To Lack of Clock Management
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-10-11 at 02:34 PM.
Disappointing effort by Kansas for sure. One of their worst shooting games of the year. I still might be a good Big 12 fade - heads up.
Why do I mess with Unders?
Ah shit ... I forgot to make that bet. Sunnuva bitch. Oh well, will replace with a 2nd half bet then.
BIG 12 2nd HALF: KANSAS STATE-COLORADO UNDER 78 [-110]
Been a bit pacey so far. Seeing as I was going to do the game under, I will try the 2nd half under. Gotta think K-State needs to tighten up on defense or face losing this game. Missed FTs by K-State ... that's gonna be potentially big I think.
Colonial: 4-7 [-3.44]
Sun Belt: 7-4 [+3.90]
Big East: 7-3 [+3.84]
Big 12: 2-4 [-2.32]
Meh. Shit afternoon. Hoping to turn it around in the night session.
BIG 12: TEXAS TEAM TOTAL OVER 72 [-110]
Texas vs. Oklahoma. This is not a good OU defense. Without their 2nd leading scorer, Baylor scored 67 yesterday against this squad. Texas is no powerhouse offensively, but they are highly effective per possession. OU's road defense has been downright attrocious, giving up 48% shooting and 77 ppg. Texas shot the ball well vs. OU twice, hitting 49% from the floor. They seemed to let off the gas in both games, hence totals of 66 & 68 against the Sooners despite winning both games by large double figure margins. I don't think the Longhorns can afford to let up at this stage. They had a problematic finish to the regular season, blowing leads and generally not showing enough intensity. Horns scored 69 ppg on the road and hit pretty consistently in that range or better in some games. Jordan Hamilton needs to have a big game and UT should look to push the pace to test the fatigue factor.
BIG EAST: NOTRE DAME ML [-135]
Irish up against the stingy Bearkats of Cincinnati. Cincy rolled against an inferior South Florida team that looked like it spent its load against Villanova the night before. The Irish have shown the ability to win at a fast pace or in grinding fashion with an eight point home win over Cincy along with grinding road/neutral court wins over Pitt & Wisconsin. Notre Dame has the edge offensively with its shooters. Cincy gets the toughness edge on defense and rebounding - although the Irish can stick with them there. The Irish played good defense against Cincy, but the Bearkats are probably a bit more confident now over then. A key then was rebounding to ND and a FT advantage. ND would serve itself well to be more aggressive and get to the line. I think whichever team does that will be in position to win tonight. Key stat tonight for me is the Irish holding Cincinnati to under 45% shooting. Going moneyline here because I feel more comfortable with it and this could be a tight one.
i like marquette, they've been pretty tough is this tourny in last few years
BIG 12: MISSOURI-TEXAS A&M OVER 137 [-105]
This seems straight forward to me. Mizzou has to make shots against A&M to set up their press and get the pace they want out of this game. A half court tempo and they're toast. A&M had no problem playing at the Tigers' pace in the regular season as regulation ended tied 77-77 with A&M winning by two in OT. Mizzou got plenty of good looks, hitting 52% and 10/25 from deep. A&M was aggressive against Mizzou, going to the line 39 times. They also shot 47% from the floor. Mizzou has had all sorts of defensive issues away from home as outlined yesterday. They allow 49% shooting and over 80 ppg. Tech laid out a good game plan against Mizzou - that word again, AGGRESSIVE. Tech did not shoot well vs. Mizzou, but made 31/36 FTs. I think A&M needs to do the same. Pace for Mizzou will be something to watch as well as turnovers. They need to make shots and not turn it over to have their tempo tonight. This promises to likely be another close game, meaning FTs could help out a bunch. Mizzou has been pretty solid at 73% and A&M hits around 70%.
BIG EAST: MARQUETTE +4 [-118]
I thought going into today that at least one of the top four seeds would drop in the Big East. Pitt was it and I'm not so sure there isn't one last upset left tonight, but I'll take the points in a more conservative measure. Marquette did a brilliant job of getting to the line against Louisville in their regular season clash that saw the Cards win by one at home. Marquette got 28 of their 70 points courtesy of FTs. They've remained aggressive in the tournament with 51 FTAs in two games, but they need to make a better percentage. The Golden Eagles have amped up their defense the last two days and will need to do so again vs. Louisville. The Cards shot poorly against West Virginia to end the regular season and they didn't always show the best on the road. Of Louisville's nine Big East roadies, they went 3-6 and only won twice by wide margins.
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-10-11 at 07:46 PM.
My Big 12 mojo is very hot and very cold. Shoulda taken A&M which was a thought - Mizzou is f-ing awful. Can't hold onto the ball or make a layup.
Hack-a-thon in the Big 12 making this possible. All-in-all, got a good chance in the 2nd half now thanks to lazy fouling!
Colonial: 4-7 [-3.44]
Sun Belt: 7-4 [+3.90]
Big East: 8-4 [+3.66]
Big 12: 4-4 [-0.32]
Good night session. Will be playing some early games in different conferences tomorrow. One in each day part to build up some scratch for the BE & B12 at night.
BIG TEN: NORTHWESTERN-OHIO STATE OVER 140 [-103]
A good combination for points today with a highly efficient team in Ohio State against a porous Northwestern defense - especially on the road. The Wildcats nearly shocked OSU at home earlier in the season, losing 58-57. But, that was at home. Northwestern gave up 74 ppg on 51% shooting on the road. The Buckeyes averaged 78 ppg on the season on 50% shooting, but were only at 73 ppg on the road. Ohio State had its own struggles defensively on the road, allowing 47% shooting and 65 ppg. This Northwestern team is solid offensively at 72 ppg and around 45% shooting. The Wildcats started strongly enough against Minnesota with 75 points on just 42% shooting, but 18/23 from the FT line. They also hit nine threes. Particularly good for the cause today was that they gave up 65 to Minnesota who shot just 37%, but made 18/26 from the line. The Buckeyes were clicking on all cylinders on offense to end the season with 82 or more in each of their last four games. Seven of their last eight hit OVERs & 13 of 15 conference games for the Buckeyes hit in that direction this season. OSU needs to dictate a quicker tempo today and come out ready, but if they do I think this will get done.
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-11-11 at 09:49 AM.
Horrible Big 10 game. Another top seed rusty as fukk. No chance in hell on this over.
damn dude. that sucks. this game is awful
Yeah, the Buckeyes can't buy a basket and Northwestern seems content to stall.
#not winning
Well I'll keep my non-Big 12/Big East plays to myself for the afternoon as I could be trashola. Will post up tonight's plays later on.
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-11-11 at 12:02 PM.
Will say one I cannot talk myself off of is Boston College +5 now. I don't see anything Clemson does necessarily better than BC and I actually like teams that have a game played already in these things. BC's shooting lately has been superior to Clemson which can suffer through droughts. BC excellent ATS on the road at 11-3.
BIG EAST: SYRACUSE -3.5 [-109]
Gotta go with the Orange today against UConn. Syracuse got a good, tough test from St.John's yesterday in their opener and came through with a big, six point win. The Orange played solid team ball in shooting 44%, making 20/29 from the line and grabbing 16 offensive boards. UConn as everyone knows won a dramatic buzzer beater over Pitt, thanks for Kemba Walker. UConn has played extremely well this week, but this will be their 4th game in as many days coming off the drama - I think that could lead to a team's tank running on fumes. Syracuse already beat the Huskies on the road in the regular season, 66-58 as they frustrated UConn with the zone. They held Walker to 3/14 from the field and outrebounded UConn 42-32. Both teams only shot about 37% from the floor in that one. I think the Orange's zone is the big factor here. UConn has not played well against teams that like to zone it, losing to the Orange & Louisville. Two key stats for me. Rebounding where SU must have the edge and the FT line. I think the Orange need to at least be even in makes with the Huskies. Triche had a good game vs. UConn and comes in off a good performance against St.John's. Look for him to try and get going early possibly.
BIG 12: COLORADO-KANSAS TOTAL 3 POINTERS MADE OVER 13 [-115]
Kansas couldn't find the range offensively against Oklahoma State yesterday, but I'd expect some dramatic improvement today against Colorado. In the two regular season meetings, the Jayhawks ripped Colorado apart from outside with 21 threes in 46 attempts. CU was ice cold from deep in the road meeting [2/15] but shot well at home [9/13]. The Buffs are not a volume shooting long range club, but they have some very capable shooters. They are 10/22 from long range in the 1st two games in Kansas City & have still shown trouble guarding the line - giving up seven threes to both K-State and Iowa State. On the road this season, CU gave up 41% shooting from distance. I think tempo is key here as both teams don't mind going up and down the floor. Colorado's legs could be a bit questionable as the game wears on due to playing their third straight game - but that may only help see some lazy defending. I don't think KU will be shy about shooting the three again despite going just 5/25 yesterday. When Kansas has it going as they have for the majority of the season, they are capable of doing 80% of the damage for this prop by themselves.
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-11-11 at 05:43 PM.
BIG 12: TEXAS A&M +6 [-102]
Aggies and Horns hookin' up for the third time. The two regular season meetings were not competitive at UT crushed A&M in both by 20+. The big difference is that was almost six weeks ago since they met and Texas has seemingly since, lost their killer instinct. Even last night in beating OU handily, they let the Sooners stick around in the 2nd half and looked lackadaisical at times in the 2nd half. Both teams thrive on stiff half court defense, something A&M showed very well last night against Mizzou. This is going to be a grinder. A halfcourt, smashmouth battle. Free throws could loom big. Horn have had their issues all season from the stripe. A&M must rebound well.
BIG EAST: LOUISVILLE TEAM TOTAL OVER 68 [-110]
The Cards scored 77 in regulation against Notre Dame on the road in the regular season match-up, shooting well at 47%. 9/21 from deep. The Irish have been pretty solid defensively, but have allowed over 40% shooting from deep on the road - something Louisville can exploit again tonight. Louisville was active on the boards last night against Marquette can must carry that over tonight. Aggressiveness on the press could lead to some hoops and potential some fouls. Key for Louisville is not settling for the jumpers. They need to attack ND. They don't always do that, but it would help this cause tremendously tonight. I think the ability to press and offensive rebounds are the stats to watch tonight if the Cards are to score enough to beat a quality Irish squad. I think they'll need to score at least this much to win.
BIG 12: KANSAS-TEXAS THREE POINTERS MADE OVER 12.5 [+125]
KU gets its chance to avenge a rare home loss from earlier this season to Texas. I think this prop is appropriately priced considering the two solid defenses. However, as I said yesterday - KU when hot from distance can do so much damage in a prop like this. They hit just 6/19 against UT in the first meeting, while the Horns hit an effective 5/11 from deep. Reed had five of KU's six threes in that game. Yesterday, KU found the range from deep with 7/17 from deep. They also allowed 10/27 from a Colorado team that isn't any better at shooting threes than this Texas club. Texas has picked their spots to his from distance in the tournament with six threes in each of the first two games. I think tempo is a key today. KU needs to get the tempo quicker and not grind into a half court game with the Horns. Tempo helps them get more open looks. Offensive rebounding also figures big here as that can lead to open three looks.
Colonial: 4-7 [-3.44]
Sun Belt: 7-4 [+3.90]
Big East: 9-5 [+3.57]
Big 12: 5-5 [-0.34]
Five threes in the 1st 5 minutes. Daddy likes.
BIG EAST: LOUISVILLE TEAM TOTAL OVER 69.5 [-110]
An impressive display from the Cards last night to down Notre Dame. Louisville has topped this number in four straight and has done it in a variety of ways. Last night, they got to the FT line 25 times and made 20 to make up for some lackluster shooting. Against Marquette, their offense was firing. During the regular season vs. UConn, they topped this number in both meetings but one did come in overtime. Louisville was actually more efficient from the floor in the game where they scored less. The Huskies have had a great tournament, but it's now the 5th game in as many days. Syracuse did not make UConn pay for any potential fatigue as they rarely ran out on UConn. I look for Louisville to really force the tempo with their pressure and try to wear out UConn. UConn's defense hasn't been particularly impressive in the tournament as they are giving up points even when the opposition as a poor shooting night. If Louisville gets its tempo set, I think they can beat this number.
3 ball prop hits and gets me in the black for the Big 12.
Colonial: 4-7 [-3.44]
Sun Belt: 7-4 [+3.90]
Big East: 9-5 [+3.57]
Big 12: 6-5 [+0.91]
Definitely think I am going to use this same methodology for the NCAA tourney. Gonna pick the two regions where I find the most familiarity with the teams I've followed and stick to betting those games only.
Colonial: 4-7 [-3.44]
Sun Belt: 7-4 [+3.90]
Big East: 9-6 [+2.47]
Big 12: 6-5 [+0.91]
Oh well, Louisville fell short. 26-22 [+3.94]. I'll take that. Hopefully I can find a couple regions that I know something about when the draw comes out tomorrow. Peace out!
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