1. #71
    EaglesPhan36
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    Mason is getting the shit kicked out of them. Wow. I am horrible at picking the Colonial. Taking dogs that get crushed, favorites that don't come close to covering.

  2. #72
    ebbearsfb1
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    george mason looks overrated...

    granted vcu is shooting lights out from 3

  3. #73
    EaglesPhan36
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    I may hate my life, but I'm taking Mason -6.5 for the 2nd half. VCU has five field goals that aren't threes. Mason did not defend well in the 1st half yesterday either, but turned it up five notches in the 2nd half. Cannot see how their coach doesn't make some big adjustments here and he's proven to do a good job there. I think if VCU continues to rely on the three ... it's feast or famine. Hoping for famine. Mason has to cut down their turnovers as well. 12 is way too many.

  4. #74
    EaglesPhan36
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    Mason getting no stops today whatsoever. They're shooting great, haven't turned it over once in the 2nd half and haven't made up any ground. Hats off to VCU. Booking Hofstra Over 57 now as it dropped a point. Fade away!

  5. #75
    EaglesPhan36
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    SUN BELT: LOUSIANA +125
    The Ragin' Cajuns come in as the hottest team in the Sun Belt with eleven straight wins. They face Western Kentucky who pulled away late to beat a really bad Monroe team yesterday. There's really very little to separate these two teams as they average nearly the same amount of points and give up nearly the same amount. Louisiana won the regular season meeting at home by three. They controlled the boards in that game and hit better from outside, while Western Kentucky made it close with more FTs. Super frosh JJ Thomas was unstoppable for Louisiana with 25. Louisiana dominated that game, leading by as many as 17, but lacked a killer instinct that almost cost them. Kerusch, Pattillo & Pettigrew are the big three for WKU. They combined for 40 points in the 1st meeting. Louisiana must keep at least two of those three in-check as they did in that meeting with Pettigrew scoring 18 of the 40. Louisiana has done everything right in this win streak that you'd expect - they outrebound teams by about 6 per game, play solid defense and do a solid job shooting threes and making FTs. Louisiana is 12-1 ATS in recent times. I'll ride with the streaking team and hope they keep it up.

    SUN BELT: NORTH TEXAS-FAU OVER 139 [-110]
    Pace is key here as North Texas wants it quick, while FAU is more of a half court team. The first meeting ended with 127 points as FAU shut down UNT, holding them to 55 points on 37% shooting. FAU shot very well at 48%, but both teams missed a lot of FT opportunities with 22 misses combined. It was especially odd because UNT is a solid FT shooting squad that made just 15/26 compared to 75% on the season. It's a little difficult to tell if UNT has committed to defense here down the stretch as their numbers are solid with opponents shooting under 40% in their last five - but they are still giving up points. Outside of Denver's poor 41 point performance, UNT is still giving up 69 or more most nights. FAU is no offensive juggernaut, but they are more than capable of scoring against poor defenses with 72 or more in their last three straight and 70+ in six of seven on the road in Sun Belt play. Key here is North Texas' ability to get to the line. When they are aggressive, they get there quite a bit. FAU can help by getting to the line more themselves as they don't always stay aggressive in that manner. This should be a great game as UNT may finally be coming together as the team many predicted them to be this year and doing it at the right time. Expecting UNT to show much better than they did in the regular season and that should give this a shot to get into the 140s.
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-06-11 at 05:27 PM.

  6. #76
    EaglesPhan36
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    Well finally got a Colonial win. Hofstra easily getting past 57.

  7. #77
    EaglesPhan36
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    SUN BELT: ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK +4.5 [-104]
    The Trojans were beaten by Arkansas State in both regular season meetings with the Wolves dominating the glass in both meetings. There will be a difference this time though as Arkansas State will be without their third leading rebounder in Finn who tore his knee up during practice last week. Finn was also a top defender for this club, which could open Sun Belt POTY Solomon Bozeman up for a huge game tonight. He had 18 and 12 in the two previous meetings. Bozeman dropped a career-best 28 on South Alabama yesterday and will look to dominate and carry his team tonight. These are two teams with nearly identical offensive stats for the season at 66 ppg on shooting in the low 40s. UALR was a better outside shooting club while Arkansas State hit the boards a little better. Defensively, the Wolves are a bit better, but struggle at times defending the perimeter which could be worsened with Finn's injury. The Trojans did not shoot well in either regular season meeting but come in off one of their better offensive performances against South Alabama. The Trojans need to keep their aggressive mindset as they got to the line 30 times. If Bozeman can start hot and have a big game, UALR will have a real shot tonight.

    SUN BELT: FIU +7 [-110]
    FIU was beaten twice in the regular season by Middle Tennessee, but they shot very well in both meetings. The big problem was their inability to control the glass as MTSU dominated the rebounding battle & shot the ball extremely well. The change for me is that FIU has played better defense down the stretch. They gave up points, but it was due to volume shooting not teams shooting lights out. MTSU is not a big time offensive club, but they have good inside-outside balance with Jason Jones & James Washington - both of whom had big games vs. FIU. The Panthers will need DeJuan Wright to come up big. He was their leading scorer, rebounder & best three point shooter at guard. He wasn't a big factor against Denver in round one, but will need to be tonight I Think. Should be an easy game to figure if FIU plays defense, they will keep this close. FIU has been solid ATS after wins, going 7-1. MTSU was 8-7 ATS as a favorite, FIU was 9-8 ATS as a dog.
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-06-11 at 08:26 PM.

  8. #78
    EaglesPhan36
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    Split the Sun Belt first two. Tournament blown up in the top half. #1 and #3 teams lose. Hoping the bottom half is just as muddy since I took both dogs. Would recommend riding North Texas the rest of the way. Their talent seems to finally have decided to play ball and defense.

  9. #79
    EaglesPhan36
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    Colonial: 3-7 [-4.44]
    Sun Belt: 5-3 [+2.90]

    Three games tonight. Colonial Final & Sun Belt semis. VCU vs. Old Dominion is going to be a good one. I was very impressed with VCU's pounding of George Mason yesterday. Split regular season meetings, both winning on the road. Waiting for lines. See Pinnacle as the total at 125.

  10. #80
    mugsey15
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    Best of luck. Will be checking in especially starting Wednesday starting with big xii. Hopefully I can also add someinfo on those games

  11. #81
    EaglesPhan36
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    Since today is a little slow and brackets are now set, I am going to write-up some previews for the Big East & Big 12 to help me collect my thoughts and hopefully provide some useful info.

  12. #82
    EaglesPhan36
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    COLONIAL: VCU TEAM TOTAL OVER 60 [-110]
    VCU scored 59 points in both games against Old Dominion in the regular season, winning on the road and losing at home. Combined, they shot just 41/105 from the floor for just under 40%. They hit seven threes in each game, but took 48 shots from deep to do so. One thing they'll need to do is try and keep ODU from dominating the boards. They did a good job in one of the games, going only -5 and securing 10 offensive boards. In the other game, they were -19 as they let the Monarchs grab 18 offensive boards. They cannot afford to let ODU have that many extra opportunities. The Rams will continue to employ their trapping style on defense, hoping to turn ODU over and get some easy buckets. They forced 27 turnovers in the two games combined - a fair feat against this squad. VCU was aggressive and stroking threes early against Mason yesterday with nine in the first half. They hit for just three against Drexel, so it won't necessarily be a staple against ODU. What will serve them well is continuing to aggressively get to the FT line. They have 64 FT attempts in their two Caa tournament games combined. Compare that to just 26 in the two games vs. ODU in the regular season. I think this number will be a HUGE key tonight. If they can get to the line 20-25 times, they'll have a shot to top 60 even against the stiff ODU defense that allows about 58 ppg, but struggled some against Hofstra.

  13. #83
    EaglesPhan36
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    SUN BELT: NORTH TEXAS +110
    The Mean Green played superb basketball in the 2nd half yesterday against FAU, knocking the top seed from their perch. Tristan Thompson was a one-man wrecking crew, hitting 20/20 from the FT line in scoring a career-best 36. What is really impressive is UNT's board dominance over the Owls, 42-18! A stark contrast to them finishing -9 against FAU in their regular season meeting. Now they draw Western Kentucky who use some hot shooting to knock off Louisiana, 81-76. The regular season meeting between UNT/WKU saw the Hilltoppers win 87-76. The big difference in that one, +9 for WKU from the FT line and nine made threes. Since that game however, UNT has showed more of a commitment to defense and has held opponents to just 22% from distance in their last five. WKU has struggled from outside and generally should not be a huge threat. This will be a battle inside with UNT's Udufuwa battling the likes of Pettigrew & Pattillo along with Kerusch. Overall, UNT is the better scoring club. Defensively, I call this about even if UNT brings the focus they have shown during the tournament. Big edge could be FT shooting for UNT has been stellar at 56/66 in the Sun Belt tournament. WKU has shot better in the tournament at over 70% from the line, but was only about 64% during the regular season. In a tight game, I'll take the Mean Green's clutch ability.

  14. #84
    EaglesPhan36
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    SUN BELT: ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK +5 [-108]
    The Trojans did not finish the season strong, but they have apparently found themselves to start the tournament. It was their offense that helped beat South Alabama in the opener and then the defense that shut down one of the top teams in the league in Arkansas State yesterday. Middle Tennessee is who they draw, the highest remaining seed in the tournament at #3. The Blue Hens used a crushing 2nd half performance to dominate a very poor FIU team by 32. It's hard to read much into the poor performance by FIU who shot 20% from the floor. The regular season meeting saw the Trojans win 62-58 at home. There's not a ton to separate these two with both shooting in the low 40s from the floor. Defensively, their stats are close to identical as well. MTSU has been strong down the stretch defensively, but they have also struggled shooting the ball. UALR sports Player of the Year Solomon Bozeman who while not having an overpowering scoring tournament, has found ways to get to the line and help his squad when they need it most. MTSU will rely on that inside-outside duo of Jones & Washington - Washington especially was effective in the regular season meeting with four threes & hit four against FIU. He'll need to be checked better. The Trojans should look to get Bozeman going early as one man can certainly make a huge difference in an even match-up like this. If Bozeman can find his stroke and/or get to the FT line for some cheap points, I think UALR will be able to keep pace in what should be a pretty tight affair. Three of Little Rock's last five losses have come by three points or less.

  15. #85
    EaglesPhan36
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    Colonial: 4-7 [-3.44]

    CAA kicked my butt with the one piss poor day, but at least it ended with a win on the VCU total. Sun Belt has been good to me thus far, hopefully ready to start strong in the Big East tomorrow.


  16. #86
    EaglesPhan36
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    BIG EAST TOURNAMENT NOTES

    In the past three years, at least two of the teams receiving double byes have failed to make the semifinals. In other words, it's not a bad idea to take a gamble on a team seeded 5th or higher to make a run as far as futures. This year's most likely candidates:

    #5. ST.JOHN'S
    Steve Lavin has done a helluva job with this team and they are very much a threat playing these games at MSG. They'll get a winnable/revenge game first-up against Rutgers or Seton Hall that I fully expect Lavin to get them to win. Syracuse would be next and while the Orange have righted their ship down the stretch, the Johnnies have already beaten them and have a nice draw I think here to make the semis potentially.

    #6. WEST VIRGINIA
    The Mountaineers aren't sexy. They're ugly. They're defense. They are Bob Huggins. They got hot down the stretch and enter with confidence having beaten Notre Dame, UConn & Louisville. Marquette or Providence first-up and then Louisville.

    #7 CINCINNATI
    The Bearkats might out ugly West Virginia, but they come in off a huge win over Georgetown. They also sport wins over St.John's and Louisville this year and showed well on the road. Nova or USF very beatable in their first-up, then Notre Dame.

    #8 GEORGETOWN
    A prototypical Jekyll & Hyde team, winning eight straight in the Big East before dropping four of five, including the embarassing loss to Cincy. Likely facing UConn first and then Pitt if they survive that. Did not match-up with either that well, could be Hyde for the Hoyas.

    #9 UCONN
    The Huskies should blow though DePaul and then get a beatable Georgetown team. That would lead them into #1 Pitt. Pitt crushed them in December. UConn simply came up short against the big boys in the Big East this season. Kemba Walker would give them a shot, but I don't see them being consistent enough.

    My opinion is that St.John's and West Virginia line up the best for deep runs for teams outside the top four. WV at +1500 and St.John's at +675 right now could provide you a nice profit/hedge opps.

  17. #87
    ebbearsfb1
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    really like wvu, and nd..

    saint johns makes sense with them playing at the garden...

  18. #88
    EaglesPhan36
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    Colonial: 4-7 [-3.44]
    Sun Belt: 7-3 [+5.00]

    Sun Belt kept me afloat, now hitting the big boys this week. Line for North Texas-UALR will be interesting for the Sun Belt final. UNT were 8.5 pt. favorites at home and won by 12. 1.5 pt. dogs on the road, won by 3.

  19. #89
    EaglesPhan36
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    BIG EAST: UCONN-DePAUL OVER 137.5 [-110]
    No secret here. DePaul has a horrible defense, allowing 76 ppg on 49% shooting. They come in off a season-worst 107 point effort allowed to Syracuse. The Orange shot a ridiculous 71% from the floor. UConn averaged 72 ppg on 43% shooting, but put up 82 against the Blue Demons in an 82-62 regular season win. UConn struggled against good defenses down the stretch, but this is far from that. DePaul is without their leading scorer, but playing a higher tempo - DePaul can still put up 60 in a garbage game like this. UConn shot 51% against DePaul earlier this year. Kemba Walker dominated the Blue Demons with 31 and most of the damage was done from the line and in the paint. DePaul was even worse defensively away from home, giving up 80 ppg and I think if UConn sniffs that there will be a good chance this works into the 140s.
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-08-11 at 08:18 AM. Reason: Dropped to 137.5 When Booked

  20. #90
    GOB
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    Bol ep!

  21. #91
    EaglesPhan36
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    Damn total dropping like a rock. Down to 135.5. Don't really give a fart about the movment, but wish I would have waited to get it here.

  22. #92
    EaglesPhan36
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    BIG EAST: RUTGERS TEAM TOTAL OVER 62 [-110]
    Rutgers draws seton Hall to open. The Scarlet Knights scored 64 & 66 against the Pirates in their two meetings this season. Rutgers was surprisingly a pretty steady road scoring club this season, netting 63 or more in nine of 12. They shot 44% from the floor for the season, a couple percentage points higher at 46% on the road. Seton Hall gives up around 65 ppg, a couple points higher at 67 ppg on the road. In the regular season meetings, Rutgers shot fairly well against Seton Hall and would have had a much higher total in one of the games as they missed 14 FTs. Jonathan Mitchell will be the primary outside scorer for the Knights. He had some big games this year, including 24 in one of the games vs. Seton Hall. Inside, Biruta will do work. He averaged under 10 ppg on the season, but hit the Pirates for 18 in one game and 12 in the other. James Beatty or Dane Miller will need to step in as the 3rd scorer. Neither shoots particularly well, but they are capable of getting into double figures. Rutgers isn't that aggressive at getting to the line, but Seton Hall has a penchant for fouling - so Rutgers needs to make FT at least around their season rate of 67%. I would not be surprised to see this game at a slightly faster tempo than might be expected.
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-08-11 at 11:15 AM.

  23. #93
    757sFinest
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    BOL buddy. Thinking of playing UCONN 1st half. Don't know how much effort we see here in the second half. They should blow them out and score at least 80. Depaul can get 60 on them (but will they) so I do agree with it going into the 140's but something just doesn't feel right. I don't know.

  24. #94
    757sFinest
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    I guess my feeling comes from uconn shooting like crap at the garden.

  25. #95
    EaglesPhan36
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    I know UConn isn't a great shooting team, but DePaul really is that bad on defense IMO. Huskies should be embarassed if they don't lay in the high 70s or into the 80s against this team. Walker could probably score 40 today if he wanted to. Would be stronger if DePaul hadn't had their top scorer injured - but garbage time can yield a lot of points hopefully.

  26. #96
    Regul8er
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    Also to note EP, if UConn builds a lead, Calhoun will want to get his starters as much rest as possible, if they want to make some sort of a run at this tournament. Don't expect Kemba to play 35+ minutes unless this game is tight from beginning to end.

  27. #97
    Regul8er
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    Road teams generally don't shoot well at the Garden....especially the 3 ball. Just ask Duke.

  28. #98
    Wiggums5
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    thoughts on the north texas v little rock game tonight, i'm leaning north texas

  29. #99
    EaglesPhan36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regul8er View Post
    Road teams generally don't shoot well at the Garden....especially the 3 ball. Just ask Duke.
    So only St.John's will shoot well?


    Quote Originally Posted by Wiggums5 View Post
    thoughts on the north texas v little rock game tonight, i'm leaning north texas
    Hard not to like UNT. UALR has been playing pretty good defense, but haven't gone against anyone with this much firepower yet in the tournament. UNT's defense is also pretty solid right now. Edge to the team with better offense. Little surprised the line was just -3 to open. Thinking more before I jump on something.

  30. #100
    GOB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regul8er View Post
    Also to note EP, if UConn builds a lead, Calhoun will want to get his starters as much rest as possible, if they want to make some sort of a run at this tournament. Don't expect Kemba to play 35+ minutes unless this game is tight from beginning to end.
    Very true, but keep in mind that DePaul will press the whole game regardless of score. That could keep the tempo high enough for the over.

  31. #101
    EaglesPhan36
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    Starting the Big East off on the good foot! Over cashing EZ. Let's go Rutgers points.

  32. #102
    EaglesPhan36
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    Colonial: 4-7 [-3.44]
    Sun Belt: 7-3 [+5.00]
    Big East: 2-0 [+2.00]

    Good afternoon with Rutgers just slipping over the team total thanks to Jonathan Mitchell's late 3. Getting stuff together for tonight. Hope to roll up some more wins.

  33. #103
    EaglesPhan36
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    BIG EAST: VILLANOVA-SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER 127 [-108]
    Even if Corey Stokes is able to go, I think the Under has a shot here. Also considering that the other Corey, Fisher, is struggling some with a knee problem. South Florida has struggled all season to score, averaging just 62 ppg on 41% shooting. In seven of their last eight, they have failed to surpass 58 points. Villanova's struggles have been epic down the stretch. The Cats are shooting a woeful 39% over their last five and have not been consistent at all in their last seven or so with most games seeing them finish in the mid 60s or so. Nova's D generally has been solid, allowing just 40% shooting. They have been blasted a couple times recently, but those were by talented offensive clubs of which South Florida is not. The regular season meeting flew past the set total of 128 with Villanova shooting lights out at 58% and South Florida using FTs to add to its total. South Florida needs this to be an ugly, grinder to have any sort of chance. They could get that from Villanova, especially if Stokes is unable to go. USF is a definite proponent of the half court game, so expect them to milk the clock and look for their best shot.

    BIG EAST: MARQUETTE TEAM TOTAL OVER 80 [-110]
    Nothing real hard to determine here. Providence's defense is loose and especially so on the road. They have given up 84 ppg on the road this season and have seen opponents get into the 80s in 10 of 18 Big East conference games this season. That includes seven of nine on the road with 86 coming to Marquette in the regular season meeting. PC loves the up tempo game and Marquette won't have a problem running with them as they showed shooting 53% in that game. This is not an outside shooting Marquette squad, so transition and interior play will be the keys. They're a decent, but not superb FT shooting team at around 69%. If they make about their average there or better, that would help this cause greatly. They shot 20/24 from the line against PC last time and in general do a good job of staying aggressive and getting to the line. Marquette averages 77 ppg on the season on 47% shooting. Their highest outputs in conference play came against teams like PC that push and defend poorly. 86 against PC. 94 against DePaul. The Golden Eagles also need to win to help their NCAA causes, so I'm not expecting them to let off the gas early in this one.

  34. #104
    EaglesPhan36
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    SUN BELT: NORTH TEXAS TEAM TOTAL OVER 71.5 [-110]
    The Mean Green seem to be on a mission now that they have figured things out down the stretch. They have rolled through the Sun Belt tournament, putting up some impressive numbers with 242 points in three games. Most telling is their ability to get to the FT line. 74 trips thus far and their 18 FTAs against Western Kentucky was the lowest so far. In the two regular season meetings vs. UALR, the Mean Green shot the ball extremely well [47% and 57%]. They made 49/64 FTs. Little Rock's defense has stepped up in the tournament, but the likes of MTSU & Arkansas State are nowhere near the talent UNT holds. Their opener with South Alabama was perhaps the closest to UNT's level and UALR yielded 68 there to a South Alabama team that missed 12 FTs. The Trojans have done some nice things defensively against inferior offensive teams this tournament, but this is not one of those occasions. UNT is an efficient club and if they get to the line anywhere from 25 to 30+ times, this will have an excellent shot to get done and the Mean Green probably go dancing.
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-08-11 at 05:32 PM.

  35. #105
    EaglesPhan36
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    Perfect example of why unders almost make me uneasy. Big East one pretty much killed within 5 minutes.

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