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This 2nd half with SF-Nova is what I had hoped the game was gonna be like the whole way. Damn bastardos came out hot in the 1st. Gonna need OT for UNT to have a shot in hell at getting 72. Looks like I'll be giving some back tonight. Will need Marquette to murder it to at least get the winning day hopefully.
What a finish in the Sun Belt. Bozeman nails a 3 with 1.5 left to give Little Rock the win. Wowza.
Colonial: 4-7 [-3.44]
Sun Belt: 7-4 [+3.90]
Big East: 3-1 [+1.92]
BIG EAST: UCONN -2.5 [-105]
The Huskies look for their 2nd win in the Big East tournament as they battle Georgetown today. The Hoyas seem lost without their point man, Chris Wright, who is still out with a hand injury. With Wright, the Hoyas fell to UConn 78-70 in the regular season with Wright scoring 19 and hitting five big threes for the Hoyas. Kemba Walker was unstoppable for the Huskies as he beat the Hoyas for 31 & UConn shot 54% from the floor for the game. UConn got on a good roll against DePaul yesterday, but will face a different defense today. Still, getting their confidence going at MSG is big. Without Wright, Georgetown's offense has ground to a halt. They have averaged just 49 ppg in his two game absence. That puts even more pressure on Austin Freeman to be the go-to-guy. He was held to just 12 by UConn earlier this year. He has 37 points in the two games without Wright, but he's being forced to take more shots to work for his points. I think UConn would be perfectly fine if that is the case today as I expect they will concentrate on guarding him on the perimeter and rebounding. I think if UConn starts aggressive from the beginning today and doesn't take it for granted that they are the better team going up against the Wright-less Hoyas - then they should find themselves into the next round.
BIG 12: OKLAHOMA STATE-NEBRASKA OVER 123.5 [-107]
Fukk these low totals. Got burned on the 127 in the USF-Villanova game last night with one big half of scoring. The regular season meeting hit 119 in Lincoln with the Huskers winning 65-54. Neither team is particularly gifted on offense. OSU averages 68 ppg, Nebraska 67 ppg. OSU allowed 67 ppg defensively, while Nebraska due to their slow pace and generally solid defense - held opponents to 60 ppg. Shooting wise, Nebraska is at almost 47% for the season though. They have also shot the 3 better in their last five at a 42% clip compared to 32% for the season. OSU shoots 43% on the season, using Marshall Moses' play as its catalyst. He's an interior, athletic presence that scored 18 vs. Nebraska in the regular season and could give their bigs some problems. For Nebraska, they spread the wealth on offense with Lance Jeter being the leading scorer. Jeter is a streaky shooter who can get hot from outside. McCray is one to watch from outside as well. Inside, Diaz is their man. He only averages slightly more than 10 ppg, but his massive body takes up space and can get some cheapies on put backs. I think a key for this slipping past the number will be the Cowboys' aggressiveness inside with Moses. He got to the FT line nine times vs. Nebraska in the earlier meeting and is pretty solid at getting to the line. Both teams shoot about 70% from the line, but Nebraska will need to be better as they have struggled from the line recently. This going to be a grinder as it should favor a half court tempo. Still, if the game is physical inside ... should get those FTAs needed to give this a shot. I think a key would be Okie State breaking 60.
BIG EAST: RUTGERS +10 [-105]
The Scarlet Knights picked up a great win yesterday in OT against Seton Hall. They played solid defense as they have most of the season. They allow just 40% shooting to opponents this year. Rutgers has also been a very competitive road squad this year. In conference play, they lost just three times by double digits on the road. They played St.John's to a two point game on the road in early February. They played excellent defense, holding the Johnnies to 36% shooting. Jonathan Mitchell was superb against STJ with 21 points on eight of nine shooting from the floor. He propelled Rutgers late yesterday and he will be a huge key to them being competitive today. Rebounding battle should tell a bunch today. Scarlet Knights outrebounded St.John's 30-21 in the regular season meeting and generally, if they are close to even in rebounding or plus in rebounding - they are competitive.
BIG 12: IOWA STATE-COLORADO OVER 153.5 [-105]
Not delving too deep into this one. Both regular season meetings were chock full of points. 185 & 164. ISU loves a quick tempo and Colorado seems to find it suitable as well. Both are efficient offensively as far as points per possession even if neither is the best shooting club. Both defenses are scuffling lately with both teams allowing around 79 ppg in their last five on 47% shooting. As long as the tempo stays quick and they make their 44-45% from the floor - give this a good shot to get done.
i like this one. BOL, EP36.Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
Thanks Biff! Need to even my Big 12 mark up with a win on that one.
Props to IAMWINNER for bringing this to my attention.
http://twitter.com/search?q=perry%20jones
Baylor's Perry Jones is SUSPENDED tonight for some sort of impropriety. Already thought OU +7 was a probable pick. Will write-up more later, but getting on this now before this becomes public info.
take the under 128 now?
Not certain about that. Like the side better.
Grabbed +7 for 20 units
ISU-Colorado both shooting crapola. Over is fukked.
Yup only think not gonna hit in a teaser
i like both Oklahoma and the 1H under 58'. thinking i'm going to go with OU, that 1H number's small and i was already leaning OU before the Jones news.
Let's hope that's the first Big 12 winner. Sheesh. So far, so shitty in the Big 12. Only need 100 pts in the 2nd half.
yeah, i thought for a moment about 2H over 81, but thought better of it. going to limit the potential damage from this one.Let's hope that's the first Big 12 winner. Sheesh. So far, so shitty in the Big 12. Only need 100 pts in the 2nd half.
Tons of points in the 2nd half. Still about 15 shy with 2+ minutes left. Fouls? OT? C'mon, make us happy.
This game is just screaming OT.
BIG 12: OKLAHOMA +7 [-108]
As outlined earlier, Baylor's 2nd leading scorer, Perry Jones, is out tonight due to alleged NCAA infractions. This is a huge loss for a team that was already very suspect from an offensive standpoint. The teams split their regular season meetings with both winning at home. Baylor averaged about four points more on offense than OU during the regular season, but both were poor down the stretch with 60 ppg averages in their last five and lackluster 40% shooting for both. Baylor has the better defense of the two. Baylor shot 48 & 62% against OU in the two meetings while OU shot 47% & 41%. Without Jones, the onus is on LaceDarius Dunn to score even more. He was efficient against OU in both meetings and did not overshoot. Strangely enough, I think if he shoots more - it's better for OU. Jones will be missed as he scored 44 against OU this season in the two meetings combined. If OU can contain Dunn, they'll have a shot to make this close and Baylor could come out here very flat depending on how the team responds to the news of Jones' suspension.
i'm punching myself in the groin repeatedly for not playing the ISU/UC 2H over 81.
This is gonna hurt. 152 with 1.8 seconds left. Can they get a foul and two makes?
Son of a bitch. I hate games like this. Where was that pace/makes in the 1st half?
Rough finish, but I still like the pick. No way you could have anticipated how abysmal those two teams were in the first half.This is gonna hurt. 152 with 1.8 seconds left. Can they get a foul and two makes?
BIG EAST: SOUTH FLORIDA +10.5 [-108]
South Florida draws Cincinnati. The question is can they build off their thriller against Villanova or is the tank empty? In the regular season, Cincy beat USF at home, 74-66. The big difference there was turnovers as both shot close to the same percentages all-around. Both have covered well on the road this season with USF at 11-5 and Cincy at 8-5. Give the Bearkats the edge defensively, but they also are not a huge offensive juggernaut. So if USF can manage to play some decent defense for two halves ... this should be fairly close. In Big East play, the Bulls only lost two out of nine road games by more than this number tonight. It is imperative for South Florida to get off to a better 1st half as I don't think Cincinnati will let them back into a game if they bust out to a big lead.
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-09-11 at 04:29 PM.
tough one, EP36. i had this, Hawaii, and the Oral Roberts/Oakland over last night, three straight losses about as narrow as you can get. only thing to tell myself right now is that these things even out over time. a pendulum always swings back. that said, i'm still throwing things against the wall.
Colonial: 4-7 [-3.44]
Sun Belt: 7-4 [+3.90]
Big East: 5-1 [+3.92]
Big 12: 0-2 [-2.12]
Yeah, I just don't like getting in a hole with these conference tournaments like I did with the Colonial. The one day there killed me at 0-4. Hoping I can at least grab one win in the Big 12 tonight, otherwise fade away on those. On the plus side, Big East is going well so far.
BIG 12: TEXAS TECH TEAM TOTAL OVER 72.5 [-110]
It's Swan Song time for Pat Knight at Texas Tech, but I do expect that to mean something for an experienced Tech club. The Red Raiders shot 49% and put up 84 on the road against Mizzou during the regular season. That was without Mike Singletary who left early due to injury after scoring four points in nine minutes. Missouri has had some defensive issues on the road especially, allowing 81 ppg on 49% shooting. Tech shot 44% for the season and is a threat from deep, making 38%. They hit the Tigers for 6/13 from deep in the regular season and can be streaky when it gets going. In five of eight conference roadies, Mizzou allowed better than tonight's total. With their up tempo pressing style, Mizzou will leave itself open to giving up some easy chances. I think Tech's seniors will at least go down in flames with a solid offensive show tonight - would not be surprised if this game is closer than people expect.
BIG EAST: MARQUETTE +3 [-105]
This is offense vs. defense. Marquette has the better offense, putting up about seven more points per game than the Mountaineers. The Golden Eagles also shot about four percent better at 47%, compared to WV's 43%. Defense goes to WV. They held opponents to 40% shooting and 64 ppg. Marquette allowed around 44% from the floor on the year and due to a bit faster pace, about 69 ppg. The regular season game was won at home by Marquette, 79-74 as they shut down WV in the final minute to rally and win. Both team shot very well in that game, Marquette at 52% and WV at 48%. The Golden Eagles won the battle on the boards, something that would serve them well again tonight. I think Marquette needs to maintain their aggressiveness tonight and get to the line like they did yesterday and the first time vs. WV. Making them would be helpful. Marquette's defense has also improved down the stretch with them holding foes around 40% in their last five. If they come ready to be involved in a more physical game, I think Marquette is in this to win it.
OU raping Baylor early. Boomer Sooner.
Liking the OK and USF bets though I am only in OK.
Alright, well busted the Big 12 cherry finally. OU moneyline would have been an awesome payout for someone. USF just didn't have any magic left in them tonight. Cincy was fairly solid. Hoping to sweep the last two to slip above .500 today.
Colonial: 4-7 [-3.44]
Sun Belt: 7-4 [+3.90]
Big East: 6-2 [+3.84]
Big 12: 2-2 [-0.12]
Good end to the night session. Big day tomorrow.
good job EP
BIG EAST: PITTSBURGH-UCONN OVER 132 [-105]
This number is diving from its opening point, but I can see this getting past where it is now set. The regular season meeting saw Pitt dominate 78-63 at home, so that has a little less bearing on this neutral site setting. Still, Pitt shot 52% and made UConn work hard to get every point in shooting just 31%. What UConn does need to carry from that game is the quicker pace. A half court game will give them virtually zero chance today in my opinion. Pitt did not light it up down the stretch, averaging just 63 ppg in their last five, but they shot an efficient 47% from the floor and were solid from outside. One of the main reasons I see for a possible OVER today is UConn's defense this week at MSG. They gave up 62 to a Georgetown team that was really struggling to score, just 49 ppg in the two games w/out Chris Wright. They also gave up 71 to DePaul in an up & down game. If their D does not improve, Pitt will find success again today. The Panthers have been solid away from home and at neutral sites with scoring, so I expect they will score some points today. Very important for UConn to be aggressive and continue to get to the FT line. They shot 20/26 against Pitt in the regular season and are 50/59 in two games in the Big East tournament. Gibbs should be big for Pitt and walker will need to be at his best. He had 31 vs. Pitt, but it was a volume shooting night.
BIG 12: KANSAS TEAM TOTAL OVER 80 [-110]
KU did not score as well in their last two games, but I'm expecting them to heighten their focus to kick start the Big 12 tournament. KU scorched Oklahoma State 92-65 at home. This is a highly efficient club, both home and way. KU shot 52% and averaged 82 ppg. On the road, they shot 49% and put up 79 ppg. In the Big 12, they put up 80+ in six of eight road games. The Morris twins killed Okie State for 40 points and the Jayhawks shot 54% from the field, including 10/23 from distance. They controlled the glass and that should lead to some fast break opps today. OSU has played to the pace of the faster teams it has gone up against this season, so as long as kU sets the tempo early - the Jayhawks should roll up some big numbers. KU must make FTs.
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