[wguan2]

2 and 7 are key numbers in picking sides FYI

[wguan2]

2 and 7 are key numbers in picking sides FYI

Here's further information. You could argue anything above 7 is a blowout that comes back later on. Imo, 5,6,7 is when team's stop fouling so the more numbers you can cover there, the better. However, I think the most important number to cover is 2 when you're picking teams that are almost even.

5	6.58%
7	6.52%
6	6.33%
8	6.20%
2	5.91%

[vancityswag]

Denver +2 1x

12/5

Blazers/Pacers u185.5 (-103) - 1x

150544724-1	12/5/12 12:47pm	$107.25	$19.50	Pending	12/5/12 9:00pm College Basketball 554 Oklahoma State -550* vs South Florida
150544161-1	12/5/12 12:37pm	$55.00	$50.00	Pending	12/5/12 7:00pm College Basketball 527 Florida -6½ -110* vs Florida State
150544161-2	12/5/12 12:37pm	$27.50	$25.00	Pending	12/5/12 8:30pm College Basketball 551 Boise State -6 -110* vs Utah U
150544049-1	12/5/12 12:35pm	$27.50	$25.00	Pending	12/5/12 7:05pm NBA Basketball 503 New York Knicks -7½ -110* vs Charlotte Bobcats
150544049-2	12/5/12 12:35pm	$27.50	$25.00	Pending	12/5/12 8:05pm NBA Basketball 507 Denver Nuggets +2 -110* vs Atlanta Hawks
150544049-3	12/5/12 12:35pm	$27.50	$25.00	Pending	12/5/12 7:35pm NBA Basketball 509 Golden State Warriors +1 -110* vs Detroit Pistons
150544049-4	12/5/12 12:35pm	$27.50	$25.00	Pending	12/5/12 10:35pm NBA Basketball 521 Dallas Mavericks +8½ -110* vs Los Angeles Clippers

JORDAN XIX's

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 20 - 12 - 2 ~ ~~62.5% win rate

Spread: 15 - 5 - 2
Totals: 5 - 7 - 0


Up/Down $$: +$953.20

Bankroll: $5,953.20........ I bet 3% of this number on each play, each day.
________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___

Play for 12/5/2012......

Lakers -4.5 @ Hornets

I believe this is my first Lakers play all season. I think they hit a new low last night and I expect them to rebound (figuratively and literally) tonight. Lately, the Lakers have a weird pattern where they play good basketball for 3 quarters and then they seem to sleep walk. While some will attribute this to Howard's free throw problems, I think it has more to do with a lack of mental focus. The Pelicans, errr Hornets, are not on the same level as the Lakers, even with the Lakers being an average team. I expect the Lakers to come out energized and to keep their foot down through 4 full quarters. Normally, I would avoid this play because the Lakers head to the Thunder on Friday, but at this point the Lakers just need a WIN, so I'm riding them. This is more of a momentum play than anything else.

$178.60 to win $162.36

1 NBA Play Wednesday


Magic +8 -103 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 43-45, -4.49

Hey guys, had a nice rest up. Had a busy few weeks and wasn't able to juggle things to well. Learn and adapt! Good motto to encompass guys to improve in every and any aspect of your life.

Looking at tomorrow boys, we're gunna make a small half unit/unit play to come back.

12/5 - Milwaukee +9.5 (1x)


Looked at this game guys and thought, tough out for the Spurs here. I know there at home and are quite tough there, but they're hurt bad and don't have much depth at the moment. Something the bucks do have, at my book bet365 this was offered at +8.5 for 1.90 - I wanted to buy the hook to bring it to +9, but it wasn't available but +9.5 was for the exact price - so I took it and locked it in quickly. Not often you get a whole point for just .07. Playing this for half a unit guys.

YTD 29W-5P-20L (59.1%) +17.4



Nice to be back, let's get em!

enjoy!

[vancityswag]

So far:

Nuggets + 1
Twizzle (5x)
Sando (+1.5 1.5x)
Wguan (+2 1x)
Wizcodlifa (+2 27$)

Spurs -8.5
Sando (2x)

Pacers -4
Sando (1.5x)

Pistons +1
Sando (1x)

Gs+1
Wizcodlifa (27$)

Lakers-4.5
A4K (1x)

Magic +8
Ltprofits

Bucks +9.5
Simon2g

Clippers - 8
Sando (1x)

Gs@detroit o191
Sando (1x)

Port@indi u187
Sando (1x)
Celtics3388 (u185.5 1x)

Nyk
Wizcodlifa (27$)

San/mil o197.5
Wguan2 (2x)

[Brutus84]

Atlanta baby.

[dmitean]

Can't understand all the love for the Nuggets to be honest. Beside their trend to win 4 games after losing three, I can't see any reason to back bad road team as Denver with terrible match ups against the Hawks that are solid at home.
Best case scenario 50 - 50 game - so to have such a wide consensus?
Either me or everyone else misses something.

It's probably me, but hope that it's not the case

[wguan2]

Can't understand all the love for the Nuggets to be honest. Beside their trend to win 4 games after losing three, I can't see any reason to back bad road team as Denver with terrible match ups against the Hawks that are solid at home.
Best case scenario 50 - 50 game - so to have such a wide consensus?
Either me or everyone else misses something.

It's probably me, but hope that it's not the case

If it is a 50-50 game and you're covering 2 points of value, wouldn't you bet that everytime? Also, I don't understand how this game could possibly present bad match ups for Denver. Atlanta is among the worst rebounding team in the league. Kenneth Faried by himself could outrebound Atlanta. Moreover, Atlanta sends out one of the smallest starting lineups on the court each night. Sure Denver has been bad on the road but like the post above, they've also been on the road almost every game lol. It's not easy to start the season with 75% of games on the road. It takes time. I do think this game will be close and Atlanta will probably have a good lead for a decent bit of the game but when it comes down to it, offensive rebounds and put backs will kill Atlanta every time.

[vancityswag]

Adding:

Lakers / Hornets UNDER 195.5 -108 (5 Dimes)
Raptors / Kings UNDER 197 -105 (5 Dimes)


NBA Card Complete

thanks lt

[vancityswag]

If it is a 50-50 game and you're covering 2 points of value, wouldn't you bet that everytime? Also, I don't understand how this game could possibly present bad match ups for Denver. Atlanta is among the worst rebounding team in the league. Kenneth Faried by himself could outrebound Atlanta. Moreover, Atlanta sends out one of the smallest starting lineups on the court each night. Sure Denver has been bad on the road but like the post above, they've also been on the road almost every game lol. It's not easy to start the season with 75% of games on the road. It takes time. I do think this game will be close and Atlanta will probably have a good lead for a decent bit of the game but when it comes down to it, offensive rebounds and put backs will kill Atlanta every time.

thanks wguan! with you on this one!

[vancityswag]

Trailblazers +4 -107 (3x)

Raptors +2.5 -108 (3x); ML +125 (1x)

word

[vancityswag]

Jazz -8 -107 (3x)

play 64: Lakers -13 +462 (heritage) risk $50

play 65: Lakers -4.5 -110 risk $110

play 66: Lakers ml/jazz ml parlay risk $110 to win $101

PLAY 67: LAKERS ML/JAZZ ML/BULLS ML +210 Risk $50

thx

[vancityswag]

Update:

Pacers -4
Sando (1.5x)

Blazers +4
T-wizzle (3x)

Nyk
Wizcodlifa (27$)

Nuggets + 1
Twizzle (5x)
Sando (+1.5 1.5x)
Wguan (+2 1x)
Wizcodlifa (+2 27$)

Pistons +1
Sando (1x)

Gs+1
Wizcodlifa (27$)

Lakers-4.5
A4K (1x)
Goatmilk

Spurs -8.5
Sando (2x)

Bucks +9.5
Simon2g

Jazz-8
T-wizzle (3x)

Magic +8
Ltprofits

Raptors+2.5
Twizzle (3x)
T-wizzle (1x ML)

Clippers - 8
Sando (1x)

Gs@detroit o191
Sando (1x)

Port@indi u187
Sando (1x)
Celtics3388 (u185.5 1x)

San/mil o197.5
Wguan2 (2x)

La/noh u195.5
Ltprofits

Tor/sac u197
Ltprofits

[vancityswag]

Here's further information. You could argue anything above 7 is a blowout that comes back later on. Imo, 5,6,7 is when team's stop fouling so the more numbers you can cover there, the better. However, I think the most important number to cover is 2 when you're picking teams that are almost even.

5	6.58%
7	6.52%
6	6.33%
8	6.20%
2	5.91%

i'm not sure i understand...can you explain a bit more please? im new to this. thanks

[t-wizzle]

I went 3x on Raptors +2.5. 1x on Raptors ML +125.

[vancityswag]

I went 3x on Raptors +2.5. 1x on Raptors ML +125.

my mistake. edited. thanks! BOL!

[t-wizzle]

my mistake. edited. thanks! BOL!

Actually 4x my bad.

[vancityswag]

denver

[wguan2]

i'm not sure i understand...can you explain a bit more please? im new to this. thanks

Basically the idea of key numbers is more important in football. Obviously getting spreads that cover 3 and 7 is important. There's no point in betting 3.5 when you can wait a bit to see if it'll move to 3. Same goes for 7. If you're betting the dog, getting 7.5 is HUGE. Same with other numbers like 4 and 10 in football.

In basketball, it's a little more complicated so you have to rely more on statistics. I've shown you a sample of I think it's 1400 games and how often it has landed on those numbers. Obviously, 5,6,7,8 is important because they're when teams usually stop fouling or there just isn't enough time left. Now, I stated that I would argue that 8 is typically off of backdoor covers. Not often do I see games end at 8 after a close game+fouling.

For 5,6,7 it's simple, the more numbers you can cover, the better so keep that in mind when you see a 5.5 and which way the line is leaning.

The most important number though in my opinion is 2. Any game that should be a close game, getting the number 2 is huge. If you look at the Denver game, that 2 point spread could've easily came into play. That's just my opinion though. You can interpret the statistics how you want.

[Brutus84]

2-0 posting. Get with the program boys.

[wguan2]

2-0 posting. Get with the program boys.

LOL it was inevitable that this thread would attract people trying to gain a fanclub. Hope this thread doesn't become troll city.

[vancityswag]

Update:

Pacers -4
Sando (1.5x)

Blazers +4
T-wizzle (3x)

Nyk -7.5
Wizcodlifa (27$)

Bobcats+7.5
TRD

Celtics- 5.5
TRD

Nuggets + 1
Twizzle (5x)
Sando (+1.5 1.5x)
Wguan (+2 1x)
Wizcodlifa (+2 27$)
TRD

Pistons +1
Sando (1x)
TRD

Gs+1
Wizcodlifa (27$)

Lakers-4.5
A4K (1x)
Goatmilk
TRD
Spurs -8.5
Sando (2x)

Bucks +9.5
Simon2g

Jazz-8
T-wizzle (3x)

Magic +8
Ltprofits

Raptors+2.5
Twizzle (4x)
T-wizzle (1x ML)

Clippers - 8
Sando (1x)
TRD

Gs@detroit o191
Sando (1x)

Port@indi u187
Sando (1x)
Celtics3388 (u185.5 1x)

San/mil o197.5
Wguan2 (2x)

La/noh u195.5
Ltprofits

Tor/sac u197
Ltprofits

this is in no way an accurate record of the people in this list. they have many quarter plays and live plays that i have not accounted for. this is solely for the purpose of seeing how the picks posted on this board did tonight.

once again the forum was huge on a game and it failed to hit (denver). seems like it happens quite often...whats on the menu tommorow?

[therealdealau]

Might start the discussion early i like both home teams tomorrow, hate the Heat they have burned me but I think this is a solid spot for them.

[ParlayBricker]

Im staying far far away from picking a side in that heat knicks game, might play the over at 202 now , might have to do alittle more research , im definatley on the suns tmrw though, dallas could be one of the worst teams in the league right now , so old and so slow and when the shots are not falling they are pretty much screwed , seen the suns opened at -1 , now its up to -3 after the stinker they put up tonight

[ParlayBricker]

Looks like ill be playing First Half over whatever the number in NYK/MIA , numbers are pretty encouraging for the number to go over
Knicks have one of the top scoring offences on the road in the first half and miami has one of the worst home defences in the first half... would play the over on the total of the game but knicks are on a back to back and fatigue could set it so i feel safer playing the first half total.

[vancityswag]

miami scares me. hearing alot of talk about the over so far. what do you think?

[vancityswag]

I'd worry about the over if Carmelo does not play, because the Knicks will be running low on scorers.

Looking at the first half scores for the last 10 Heat games, the Heat were mostly behind at the half and only once in the 10 games did they lead by more than 4 points at halftime, on November 15 against Denver. With the spread currently at 7, I imagine the halftime spread would wind up right around that 4 point number..

Melo will play. Would only be a question mark if he injured the right hand.

Interesting...

[dmitean]

Might start the discussion early i like both home teams tomorrow, hate the Heat they have burned me but I think this is a solid spot for them.

IMHO, if Melo plays, Heat are a must bet. The revenge from Knicks season opener, when they trashed Miami still fresh in Heat players minds I believe and they will execute this revenge tonight.
If Melo is out, than the win won't mean much and in that case, I will stay away from the bet.

P.S. As for the Suns, I have a feeling that Dallas got squashed last night, because they decided to throw away the game against the Clippers, so that they will focus on tonight's game. Suns really don't impress me to be honest...

[vancityswag]

NBA


Dallas @ Phoenix
Suns -3 (-109 Sportingbet) 2.5x


Phoenix coming off a tough road trip will be very happy to be home where they are a respectable 5-3 at home with the losses coming against Miami, Chicago & Golden State, all better teams than this current Dallas list who are just garbage at the moment without Nowitzki. They have a miserable 2-7 record on the road and have lost 4 of their last 5 overall by an average of nearly 18 points per game. In fact apart from one two point loss to Philly they have been crushed by the Lakers, Bulls & Clippers all by over 20 points.

*Further in depth analysis to follow...

Finally broke out of the 4 day losing streak with a pretty big day. Not a lot on the card for tomorrow but will have a few plays. Hopefully the start of a winning streak.

12/6/2012

Xavier -11½ -110* vs Vanderbilt X (4 Units)
Arkansas Little Rock +20 -110* vs Cincinnati X (2.4 Units)
Miami Heat -7 -110* vs New York Knicks X (4.8 Units)

Adding:

Denver Broncos/Oakland Raiders Under 48½ -102* X (4.8 Units)
New York Knicks/Miami Heat Over 202 -105* X (3.6 Units)

Probably wont have many more plays. Probably 1 or 2 more once i take a look at the NFL game.

Miami Heat -7 (2.5x)

This is the game the Heat turns their average performances around, and here is why. Firstly, the Heat play their best ball at home there's no disputing that - coming up against a Knicks team on a back to back where they struggled against the Bobcats and most importantly Melo injured his non shooting hand. Melo will play no doubt about it but the b2b might take some toll on the older bodies of the Knicks, especially if the game is an up tempo scoring affair. The Heat will be taking this game as serious as any, they have already been embarrassed by this Knicks outfit by 20 points in their first meeting. This is a potential conference final match up here the Heat will be ready for this game and will want to win a decisive victory for not only themselves but the fans. Now a look into the game, Norris Cole/Chalmers are both banged up with Mario guaranteed to be out. I love this for the Heat because that essential means LeBron will be handling the ball much more. If you've watched any Heat game this season you'll notice that the ball goes through the PG first regardless and LeBron most of the offense is just standing out on the wing waiting. You'll also have noticed that the Heat have trailed a lot of games and win it in the 4th. What changes? The offense goes through LeBron and he is seen carrying the ball. I believe LeBron will get involved from the get go and will not stop until the Knicks are destroyed. Lewis should have some decent looks and be productive as his length will trouble the Knicks, even on the defensive end. Wade is finding some form and will be a handful, his main role tomorrow though will be defensive as I believe he will get minutes on JR Smith and will shut the streaky shooter down. Bosh will cause issues as he opens the floor with his jumper and pulls bigs away from the paint where LBJ and Wade will do work. 7 is a lot of points for a team that has not been covering and has been getting away with wins late in the 4th but I believe the real Miami Heat we all know and hate will be out on court tomorrow.

Any value left in heat -7.5?

[vancityswag]

PLAY 71: MIAMI -7 -110 RISK $110 to win $100

Analysis later

12/6

Mavs +3.5 (-107) - 1x
Mavs ml (+145) - 0.5x

The Suns have no business laying 3.5 to a Rick Carlisle coached team. I was down on Dallas earlier in the year as I thought they were overvalued, but I think the market has not only caught up, but is now overcompensating. Yea Dallas is on a b2b blah blah but actually this is only their 3rd game in the past week and none last night's minutes were "hard minutes" with it being a blowout pretty much from start to finish. So I don't expect fatigue to play much of a role tonight. On the other hand PHX has played 5 times in the past week and it's their first game back from an extended 6-game road trip. Teams are generally less focused for that game since they are seeing family and friends for the first time in awhile (you know the wife or gf is having them do shit together after like 2 weeks away... it sounds stupid lol but has been a legit trend in the NBA where effort is optional). This is not the main reason for taking Dallas though - I think the two roster's are comparable and there is a huge coaching edge for Dallas. I like the fact that Dallas got blown out last night on national television and I think Carlisle has them playing hard tonight. I think this game is like 49/51 game and have PHX as a 1.5 pt fave, so I'll glady take the 3.5 and throw some on the +145 ml also.

I don't like either game, tonight. If you have to make a play, I lean Suns -3. They played the Grizzlies tough until OT and they are at home, and hungry for a win. Mavericks looked awful last night. This not an official play and I will not be betting it. Just throwing it out there for the degenerates, lol.

interesting...i think i like the suns as well...

[vancityswag]

12/6/12

Phoenix Dallas over 199.5 1x

thx wguan! bol!

[killersweet]

interesting...i think i like the suns as well...

Initially I liked the Suns, but I see that teams tend to struggle on their first game after a long road trip. So don’t like them anymore.

[ParlayBricker]

celtics , have you watched a dallas game ?? or a suns home game for that matter?

[ParlayBricker]

killer, if your looking too much into last years trends id throw those out the window that was an almost entirely different team, the home road splits are too drastic not to be taking the suns in this spot

[wguan2]

There's no angle in this Suns game. The 3 points give to them is pure out of b2b dallas and home game for Suns. These teams are even. Both teams are struggling. Most importantly, both teams don't even know what winning feels like anymore. It's a pure even game. What's even worse is that to be honest, talent wise, Dallas probably has the better team. That's arguable but they certainly have the more experienced team. You can call them old or whatever but they know much more about winning in these types of situations than the Suns do. Who's the real leader on the Suns team? Who on the Suns team has been a part of a winning team? This is the true definition of a coin flip with no value on the spread. But I guess if I were to take the coin flip, I'd take a home team. In this game however, I'd probably lean Dallas.

PS. the book's don't think much of the Suns either if they're giving Dallas only 3 points on b2b road games and getting blown out by 20.

[ParlayBricker]

fair analysis wguan , just looking back at dallas' games on the road, they have been blow out by good teams and struggled against weaker teams and suns do play good ball at home, i wanted to pounce last night when suns opened at a pickem