Originally Posted by
sando
Tough week. Stay focused. Long season. Keep grinding.
1-2 Today in the NBA -2.22 Units
NBA YTD 81-55-6 (+32.97 Units) 59.6%
(NBA ATS/ML 61-42-4 YTD) 59.2%
(NBA totals 20-13-2 YTD) 60.6%
All time SBR Picks
Tennis 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units)
Rugby Union 7-7 (+2.97 Units)
Rugby Sevens 14-12-1 (+0.62 Units)
MLB 4-1
MMA 2-0
*Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum.
**All m/l picks are almost always dogs. I will hardly ever play a favorite at the m/l and if I do it is no worse than -115.
NBA
LA Lakers @ Houston
Rockets m/l (+118 Pinnacle) 1x
Houston have won 5 in a row at home now with notable wins over the Knicks, Bulls and Jazz. All the focus on this team was always going to be on the guards with high profile Harden and Lin manning the 1-2 and yet surprisingly the Rockets front court has been quite formidable, especially at home. Asik, Patterson and Parsons, many fans would struggle to give you any name on the Rockets list outside the guards, and their front court should not be as good as it is, but yet it is so. Let's not forget the Rockets have had arguably the toughest schedule in the whole league so far and their record (8-8) needs to be taken into context with their losses coming against the likes of OKC, Memphis, Miami, Utah etc (no weak teams) whereas the Lakers have a worse record at 8-9 despite a predominantly home schedule and yet they have managed to lose to the likes of Orlando and Sacramento in recent times and lets not forget the Lakers have a miserable road record at 1-4. Ths Lakers them has the potential to be great, possibly even Champions, but potential is not reality and the reality of the situation is they are currently 3-4 under (the saviour) D'antoni, they lead the league in turnovers, they get crushed on the fast break every game, seem to lack chemistry, have zero consistency, an injury list that is getting worse not better (add Gasol to the list) I could go on. Without Gasol the Lakers size advantage over the smaller rockets front court is neutralised, Kobe and Harden will probably cancel each other out, and Lin should be too crafty and quick Off the dribble for Morris who is clearly down on confidence and Duhon needs to go play in the D-League. Until the Lakers prove they can play on the road how is there value on them as favorites playing an under-rated team who is a very tough out at home?
Minnesota @ Philly
76'ers -3 (-101 Pinnacle) 1x
*Yes I am well aware that Love and Petkovic could have a field day against an undersized Philly front line, however on the flip side Minny is completely out matched from 1-3 even if Nick Young doesn't play as that simply means more minutes for quality players (Turner, T-Young and J-Rich).
OKC @ Brooklyn
OKC -4 (-109 Pinnacle) 2x
No Lopez and no Evans is a lot of blocks and rebounds missing from the Nets core strength, which is thier defense. In fact I expect OKC to turn the tables and dominate the rebounding today although Humphries will hustle and do his best. OKC red hot and rolling at the moment, scoring 100+ in 9 straight games. They are also on a 6 game winning streak and have covered ATS in 8 of their last 10 games, including covering large lines of -8.5, -9.5, -9.5, -10.5 and -11.5 with ease on each occasion. Sefolosha the perfect guy to help keep Johnson in check, which leaves even more work for D-Will, Blatche and Wallace offensively.
NBA Total's
OKC @ Brooklyn
Over 191.5 (-109 Sportingbet) 1.5x
Wow. Since I posted this pick and locked it in at 191.5 it has been smashed out to 196! I had this total set at 196-197 and figured the total was lower than it should be as the books were over-compensating for the Nets having their leading scorer out (Lopez - 18.5 ppg), but it is a moot point on a team such as this, as those points can be easily assimilated by Humphries, Johnson, Wallace and D-Will, this is a team that is currently known for its defence but there is no shortage of offensively gifted players on this list. OKC is the league's most potent offence, averaging over 105 ppg and having hit the 100 mark in 9 straight games, so assuming OKC hits around their average (as Nets are weakened defensively without Lopez) of 105, that would require the Nets losing by 20 points with a score of around 85 for the over not to hit, highly unlikely. More realistic is a score of something like 102-97 (OKC) in my humble opinion.
LA Lakers @ Houston
Over 212 (-108 Pinnacle) 1.5x
I expect tempo from both teams, early shot's, plenty of fast break opportunities for the Rockets, a lack of defence, and plenty of points. The perfect two teams to play out an over ATM.