Originally Posted by
loungee
Tonight's card is shaping up to be pretty good so far. The last two days have not gone as expected as far as what I've been producing all year so, as always, tail or fade at your own risk. As I stated in my very first post for this thread, I don't go chasing my losses, or "guaruntee" anything, or give you "locks of the century." I'll give you the information and statistics that I come up with along with my plays. BOL to all, whether you choose to tail or fade.
CHI -9 (2U) WIN
I grabbed this one early this morning at -9 and has since gone up to -10, and by game time, at least -10.5, maybe even -11. I went against my better judgement last Bulls game, going against my Bulls and taking the NJN +9. Shame on me. Rose is listed as game-time decision, but he WILL be playing, as both him and Coach Thibs have come out and stated he will play. This spread is a little high, seeing as how if CHI was at home, this would be around -16. But this doesn't concern me for a couple of reasons. For one, even if Rose didn't play, Deng is back and seems to have not missed a beat, going off his first two games back. The Bulls are deep enough that if, for some reason, Rose suffers a setback, Watson can step in and start. Watson is no Rose, but he has proved time and again that he is capable of stepping in. Secondly, as a poster stated to me before the NYN's game, the Bulls absolutely destroy inferior teams and do not let up on the gas. Being a Bulls fan, I of course knew this. But I stuck with my pick and paid for it. Thibs and Collins of the 76ers have proven that they are really the only two coaches (that I can think of off the top of my head) that even if they have a big lead, the starters will be out there, and they will drive up the score, unlike, for example, BOS last night, who let the backdoor cover happen. CHI has beaten up the bad teams this year, winning by an average of 20.25 points against NJN(2x), MIL, WSH(2x), CLE, and DET(2x). CHI is 11-6 on the road ATS while NO is 4-10 at home ATS. NO has Landry and Gordon out, and Jack day-to-day while CHI only has Rip sitting. I like the Bulls a lot in this spot. They normally don't let up or play down to the competition like other top tier teams.
DAL ML +100 (1U)
I took the ML because it was better odds then taking DAL +1 (-110), and given DEN's injuries, I like DAL to win this straight up anyways. DEN has Brewer, Mozgov, and Gallinari out, while Affalo and Nene expecting to return tonight. Nene and Affalo returning is huge for DEN, but with three prominent pieces out, this is going to affect their depth. Both teams haven't been playing their best basketball recently, both going 1-4 ATS in their last five, and both coming in a 3 game losing streaks SU. But I think DAL comes in strong tonight, knowing DEN is 100%, both as a team and the players that are playing.
NYK +2 (1U) WIN
I like this pick even more now that Amare isn't playing and Melo out 1-2 weeks. I'm not completely sold on Lin yet, but he's a far better option at PG then Shumpert. With their two superstars out, NYK will actually move the ball instead of coming to a stand still and playing a two man game like they do when Melo is in there. WSH should not be favored against anyone, unless they are playing at home, on at least a days rest, against one of the following: NO, CHA or DET. That's it. They're in the bottom of the league in shooting % categories (the four major), and defensive shooting categories (the four major). NYK aren't a ton better, but will play well as a team. They actually have some decent to pretty good outside shooters like Walker (never thought I'd say that), Fields and Douglas. The books are overvaluing WSH here making them favorites just because NYK don't have Amare or Melo, but WSH doesn't have much to throw out on the floor to begin with. NY has actually covered their last 5 against the likes of CHI, UT and BOS, while WSH has been 1-4 in their last five, failing to cover against the lowly Raptors. This is a good spot for NY to go into WSH and win straight up.
PLAY OF THE NIGHT
PHI TT O92 (3U) LOSS
I like this quite a bit for a couple of reasons. SA does not play well, scoring defense-wise, on the road, and are going to look to keep this game uptempo and outshoot PHI because, well, that's the only way they're going to win. I expect a high scoring game but I just don't know yet if this game will go over. Anyways, SA's pourous road defense mixed in with PHI's top 10 shooting offense and SA fouling the most in the NBA, I'm liking this pick a lot.
I may have a few other plays, but as of now, this is it. Good luck.