Originally Posted by
loungee
Quite a few plays tonight, as there were a lot that jumped out at me. I left my gut and brain out of these, and went back to the way I was capping at the beginning. BOL to all.
Record as of 2/10/12
ATS Record: 44-35-0 (+6.00 Units) (56%)
O/U Record: 43-35-2 (+25.00 Units) (55%)
ML Record: 1-0-0 (+1.00 Units) (100%)
Overall Record: 88-70-2 (+32.0 Units) (56%)
CHI -13 (2U) WIN
This CHI teams has been absolutely destroying the worst teams in the league, and is one of the few teams (thanks Coach Thibs) that when up big, they keep their foot on the gas pedal, usually by keeping his starters in the game well into the 4th. And even if the "bench mob" comes in, they're more then capable of keeping the score up. The bench for this CHI team is better then the starters for CHA, which is saying a lot. This spread is a bit high (adjusted line if this was in CHI would be around -19) but CHI has been proving that they will keep beating up the worst of the worst, and CHA is the worse in the league. CHI is 12-6 on the road ATS and won their last three games (all on road) by an average of over 22 points against MIL, NJN and NO, all of which are better then CHA, who is really banged up. CHA is 3-7 ATS at home, failing to cover 7 of their last 8 home games, losing those games by an average of over 14 points per game, against far inferior defensive teams like NYK, CLE, DET and HOU. I was wrong about CHI v. NJN, thinking they wouldn't be getting up and expending a lot of energy over the next 3 games against the worst teams in the league, but I was wrong. And I should've known better, given that I live in CHI. What Thibs does to the Bulls starters could be bad for them in the long run but great for gamblers.
CHA TT U85 (2U) WIN
CHA is averaging 78.5 ppg over their last four games, and have only scored over 85 twice in their last 8 games. They can't score with the injuries to this team, and the Bulls defense is just too good. They've been playing a lot better on the road the last couple of games compared to what they started the season off with. CHI is healthy and on a roll. I'd be surprised if CHA makes it to 75, especially given that even if/when the game gets out of hand, the Bulls don't let up on defense, as evidenced in the NO game.
ATL/ORL U182.5 (1U) WIN
This season, whenever I play an ORL game, I am very cautious when it comes to what play and how many units for the simple fact that they are so unpredictable.. a gamblers worst nightmare. However, I like this under for quite a few reasons. First off, both teams are top 15 in DEFF, top 8 in opp. PPG and both teams are in top 6 for fewest fouls committed per game. Despite ORL's inconsistent offensive play, they have been a pretty good defense all year, mainly because of the man in the middle. Both teams have only played one game in the last 3 days so they're both rested, and I expect a lot of defense. Over the last couple of years, these teams have developed a nice little rivalry so I expect this game to be close, turning into a defensive effort after a running first quarter. Oh, and don't forget that both teams are top 10-13 in all four major opp. shooting % categories (opp. shooting %, eFG %, 2pt % and true shooting %).
NYK +4 (1U) WIN
I was waiting for this to get to +4 to take it. Neither team is particularly good ATS (both below .500) but NYK have been on a roll ever since losing Melo and Amare, and Lin stepping up and taking over at PG where he should've been over Shumpert. Shumpert just isn't a true PG, and that showed pretty clearly. But that's beside that point. NYK have quietly covered their last 6 straight games, and last 4 home games, and against pretty good teams like UT, BOS and CHI. They played well lately at home after coming back from a brutal 4 game road trip, where they went 1-3 and losing to CLE, MIA, and HOU, all by double digits. As I've stated before, this Knicks team just plays better as a actual team without Melo and Amare, or at least without Mr. Ballhog, Mr. ISO, Mr. Selfish.. Melo. I'm on the record that I'm not quite sipping the Jeremy Lin kool-aid yet, but he's been undoubtedly an upgrade, given that Shumpert is actually a SG. LAL have been picking up steam lately as well, covering 4 of their last 6, and beating their rival BOS last night in a tough, methodical, OT thriller. They put everything they had into that game, though. They're 3-6 in their last 9 road games, and coming in gased and traveling last night (albeit not that far), I think NYK keep it close.
PHI -3.5 (1U) LOSS
This is one of those matchups where it's two very talented teams, and the game is about great offense vs. great defense. However, it is also a matchup of bad defense vs. good offense. PHI is a very well rounded team, while LAC are very inept on the defensive side. Offensively, they are both top 10 in just about every major offensive category (shooting % categories and PPG). But defensively, it is a whole different story. LAC rank 25th, 22nd, 17th and 14th in true shooting %, opp. shooting %, eFG%, 2pt % and rank 24th in opp. PPG and 23rd in DEFF. Overall, they're in the bottom third of the league. PHI could not be any more different. They are 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 1st in opp. shooting %, eFG%, 2pt % and true shooting %, as well as 2nd in opp. PPG and 1st in DEFF. At home ATS, PHI is in the top part of the league going 12-5 while LAC is 4-5-1 on the road. PHI bounced back nicely after the throttling put on them by MIA by covering and beating ATL and LAL (followed of course by a SU loss to SA). PHI, at home, against this Clippers team, should be able to cover, as they continue on to the #3 seed in the East. I like Philly in this spot quite a bit.
BOS/TOR U174.5 (1U) WIN
The public has been all over this over all day, but the line is falling. I'm going to fade the public in this one. TOR has been scoring lately, but against horrible defenses. Against decent to good defenses? They've averaged 78.5 PPG, which include MIA (a little overrated by media, average by statistical standards), ATL, BOS and POR. BOS is on a B2B but that shouldn't make a difference. BOS scores the 2nd lowest PPG at home, while TOR scores the 4th lowest on the road. Neither of these teams should even be close to 90. BOS will try to run a slow offensive game after last night, and TOR.. well, they just can't score with Bargnani, and barely could with him.
NO +7.5 (1U) LOSS
I know.. I know.. it's NO. I must be out of mind. Hold your laughter til AFTER you read please. Hear me out. NO is not as bad as the game they played against CHI. CHI is just that good. NO has some decent pieces (for NO standards I guess) in Ariza, Kaman, and Okafor. Aside from one or two recent games, NO keeps the games competitive.. until the fourth quarter at least. Neither team's ATS record away (POR, 3-9) and at home (NO, 4-11) are impressive, but one of the trends I've noticed this year is fading POR on the road is usually a good idea. POR is 1-5 in their last 6 road games ATS (2-8 in their last 10 road games ATS), and only beat this exact NO team in this exact arena by 7 Jan. 16th. POR just isn't a good road team for whatever reason. I'll take the points.