[loungee]

Yeah.. I usually play most unders with the occasional over.Here's a few adds:

OKC -7, (2U) WIN

[loungee]

cha/chi, 1q u47.5 (1u) loss
phi/mia, 1q q48.5 (2u) win

[loungee]

As of 1/21:
ATS Record: 20-12-0 (+9.00 Units) (63%)
O/U Record: 18-12-0 (+23.00 Units) (60%)
Overall Record: 38-24-0 (+32.0 Units) (61%)

Don't have a ton of time for the writeups but i'll give ya what I got:
BAL/NE, 1Q O10 (3U)
As it was last week, this seems like a no brainer. BAL is good on D but they're aging and I see Brady picking them apart on one of his first two possessions. BAL can score at least 3 points against a bad NE D. Keep in mind.. NE played the Broncos last week. Don't need stellar D to beat team.

BAL/NE, O50 (1U)
This one was a little tougher to decide on. We all know what the offenses and defenses are like on each team, so no need to go into that. If SF can score 36 against NO (who has a much better D then NE), BAL can score 24+ against NE. The stats support all of this.

NE -7 (1U)
NE, offensively at least, have been hitting on all cylinders the last couple of weeks, if not the entire year. BAL has a good D (very old though), but they have no answer for Gronkowski and Hernandez. This is a great spot for Brady to avenge the loss against BAL in the 2009 playoffs where they got blown out. I'm riding with Brady here and the -7.

IND/LAL, U180 (1U)
CHA/NJN, U192.5 (1U)
TOR/LAC, U186 (2U)
Even though they've been without Chris Paul, a game-time decision today (they don't need him to beat TOR, and even if he plays, his minutes will be restricted) and Caron Butler looking like he won't play again, the Clips have been putting up some good numbers, scoring wise. But this TOR team is pathetic without Bargnani, going 0-5 and struggling to score on the court. IF Bargnani plays, then I'm not confident in the under. Stay on top of injurt news before making this play.

[loungee]

As of 1/21:
ATS Record: 20-12-0 (+9.00 Units) (63%)
O/U Record: 18-12-0 (+23.00 Units) (60%)
Overall Record: 38-24-0 (+32.0 Units) (61%)

Don't have a ton of time for the writeups but i'll give ya what I got:
BAL/NE, 1Q O10 (3U) LOSS
As it was last week, this seems like a no brainer. BAL is good on D but they're aging and I see Brady picking them apart on one of his first two possessions. BAL can score at least 3 points against a bad NE D. Keep in mind.. NE played the Broncos last week. Don't need stellar D to beat team.

BAL/NE, O50 (1U) LOSS
This one was a little tougher to decide on. We all know what the offenses and defenses are like on each team, so no need to go into that. If SF can score 36 against NO (who has a much better D then NE), BAL can score 24+ against NE. The stats support all of this.

NE -7 (1U) LOSS
NE, offensively at least, have been hitting on all cylinders the last couple of weeks, if not the entire year. BAL has a good D (very old though), but they have no answer for Gronkowski and Hernandez. This is a great spot for Brady to avenge the loss against BAL in the 2009 playoffs where they got blown out. I'm riding with Brady here and the -7.

On a side note, on the personal side, although I lost all three of these bets, I still won becuase I don't have to hear from Suggs and Lewis anymore. I can't stand either one of those douchbags. Sorry for the rant.



IND/LAL, U180 (1U)
CHA/NJN, U192.5 (2U) WIN
TOR/LAC, U186 (2U) LOSS
Even though they've been without Chris Paul, a game-time decision today (they don't need him to beat TOR, and even if he plays, his minutes will be restricted) and Caron Butler looking like he won't play again, the Clips have been putting up some good numbers, scoring wise. But this TOR team is pathetic without Bargnani, going 0-5 and struggling to score on the court. IF Bargnani plays, then I'm not confident in the under. Stay on top of injurt news before making this play.

I should've known better then to bet to 1Q O10 on a rivraly game like BAL/NE. Yeah.. it's not the type of rivrly like BAL/PIT, but I should've known better, as these teams were gonna come up tough defensively. Eh.. oh well. Here's a few adds for the late NFL game.

NYG/SF, 1Q O7.5 (3U) LOSS
Ok.. you may be thinking that I didn't learn my lesson. That the field is completely wet and not suitable for a high scoring game. Oh on the contrary. Wet fields make for lots of offense, as offensive players already know where they're going and what they're doing. It's the defenses that typically suffer because they're the ones trying to cover and keep up with with the offense. It's hard to believe between these two teams can't put up more than 7.5 points in the first quarter. Their defenses are good, but NYG is on fire and SF is actually looking like a pro football team on the offensive side. This bet, however, isn't for everyone. I'm doing a little chasing because of the first 1st quarter bet lost so, more then other ones, tail at your own risk.

NYG +2 (1U) WIN
Personnally, I like SF. I like a lot of their key players (Willis, Gore, Smith Boys, Davis) and I like their coach and his fiery nature (wish the Bears had a coach who didn't look half dead on the sideline). Surprisingly, ever since Harbaugh took over, SF has become my second favorite NFL team. But there are no feelings involved in gambling. This is going to be a hard fought, brutal game. Both defenses have mean, fierce players who love to hit and hurt people. I can see NYG winning this straight up (as can most of America, I know. Not exactly in depth, shocking statement there). In the end, though, I think the Niners win this on the seasons greatest, and one of NFL's greatest of all time kickers, David Akers. SF 24 NYG 21

[loungee]

ind +5.5 (2u) WIN
ind/lal, 2h u90.5 (1u) LOSS

[loungee]

As of 1/22:
ATS Record: 22-13-0 (+11.00 Units) (63%)
O/U Record: 19-18-0 (+14.00 Units) (51%)
Overall Record: 41-31-0 (+25.0 Units) (57%)

Just an overall bad night. Didn't go by the angles/stats, went by my gut to much and just didn't do the leg work and rushed the picks. A nice set of games for tomorrow night, though. And I've already got my biggest play this year so far starting it off:

SA/NO, O178.5 (5U)
Yep.. five units on this bad boy. There's too many angles and stats to go any other way. My system gives us +8.35 points of value, which is a good start. SA has become quite the offensive scoring team (averaging 98.9 ppg), but they average a little less (95 ppg) on the road. Granted NO doesn't score a ton of points (86.4) but SA gives up a ridiclious 104.7 ppg on the road. There might be a little defense, considering both teams are coming off a day off, but SA is going to want to run and gun, blow NO out, and get out of there, as they do with all their road games, which is evident in their O/U road records: Last five away games they're 4-1 O/U, and they're away overall on the road O/U record is 5-2. This tells me they're not interested in playing a lot of D when they're on the road. They want to get in there, score a lot of points without using a lot of energy and getting out of there. And, as stated earlier, even with NO's inept offense, SA gives up too many points on the road for NO not to score enough to keep their end of the O/U cover. And since this has the makings of a blowout, expect a lot of garbage defense and scoring in the latter half of the fourth quarter. You're telling me these two teams can't score 89 points each? Or that a 100-79 SA blowout is unrealistic?

[loungee]

As of 1/22:
ATS Record: 22-11-0 (+11.00 Units) (63%)
O/U Record: 19-18-0 (+12.00 Units) (51%)
Overall Record: 38-24-0 (+23.0 Units) (57%)

Just an overall bad night. Didn't go by the angles/stats, went by my gut to much and just didn't do the leg work and rushed the picks. A nice set of games for tomorrow night, though. And I've already got my biggest play this year so far starting it off:

SA/NO, O178.5 (5U) WIN
Yep.. five units on this bad boy. There's too many angles and stats to go any other way. My system gives us +8.35 points of value, which is a good start. SA has become quite the offensive scoring team (averaging 98.9 ppg), but they average a little less (95 ppg) on the road. Granted NO doesn't score a ton of points (86.4) but SA gives up a ridiclious 104.7 ppg on the road. There might be a little defense, considering both teams are coming off a day off, but SA is going to want to run and gun, blow NO out, and get out of there, as they do with all their road games, which is evident in their O/U road records: Last five away games they're 4-1 O/U, and they're away overall on the road O/U record is 5-2. This tells me they're not interested in playing a lot of D when they're on the road. They want to get in there, score a lot of points without using a lot of energy and getting out of there. And, as stated earlier, even with NO's inept offense, SA gives up too many points on the road for NO not to score enough to keep their end of the O/U cover. And since this has the makings of a blowout, expect a lot of garbage defense and scoring in the latter half of the fourth quarter. You're telling me these two teams can't score 89 points each? Or that a 100-79 SA blowout is unrealistic?

PHI -13 (4U) WIN
The line opened at -14 last night and has since dropped to -13, even though 60% of the public is on PHI. This pick came down to basic stats and numbers: PHI is 11-4-1 overall ATS, being 7-1 at home, 4-1 at home their last 5 home games and 3-2 over their last 5 games overall. WSH is 5-11 overall, being 1-5 on the road, 1-4 in their last 5 road games and 2-3 in their last 5 overall. But it's the next angles and stats that caught my eye: PHI is 3-0 as double digit favorites, with 2 of those coming against this WSH team already. Some would say this is a revenge spot for WSH but I only buy that angle when it's two teams who are above-average teams and up (i.e. MEM/CHI earlier this year). Not to mention PHI is coming into this game with a day off (third in four games though), I like PHI here. Side note: WSH is 2-3 on double digit dogs, playing their third game in four games, as well as the second of a B2B. Gimmie Philly.

ORL -5 (2U) LOSS
I don't have a lot of time so here's the low down: ORL is 5-2 ATS on the road, while BOS is 3-6 at home, where they play, quite possbily, their worse basketball. They can't score, they can't be a cohesive unit and they can't win at the Garden. ORL is the better team, period. The C's are looking just bad as of late (a 6 point win against the worst team in the leage, WSH, doesn't hold water for me) and I can't see this old, rundown team able to win, let alone cover this spread. Lastly, and what has worked for me pretty well, is take BOS opponent when BOS is playing a B2B, and especially here, where BOS traveled yesterday/last night after an early game against WSH. This would truly be a surprise if BOS is able to cover, especially with the possibility of Rondo and Ray Allen missing this game. Rondo is considered "hopeful," while Ray Allen is listed as a "game-time decision." I'm confident in rolling with ORL and the points.

Joke of a game, as my post states below. These refs should not have a job come tomorrow, and quite possibly the worst part of this game, was watching it on NBATV, and listening to the homer BOS announcers who couldn't be objective when calling the game in the least bit. Wash my hands of this game, remember my first two plays were a success and hope for the late one to hit. Hope everyone cashed.

[loungee]

This ORL/BOS game is a complete joke. The refs have completely neglected to call any fouls committed against Howard. Jameer Nelson gets run over and no foul? O'Neal throws bows and sticks his finger in Howards face and it's a double T and a personal foul? Should have been ejected from the game. This game was a complete and utter joke. On too the late game..

MEM +2.5 (1U)

[RyDogg]

cash those 2 big games!

[loungee]

tor/phi, u188.5 (1u) loss
mem +6 (1u) loss
cha +6.5 (3u) loss
cle/mia, o204 (2u) loss

[loungee]

Not a good night after one of my better ones. Put in a parlay earlier to try and save the night.
This is an unoffical play:
MEM +6, MEM/POR O187.5 (4U)

[loungee]

As of 1/21
(I have noticed in my last couple of postings of my record the overall record doesn't add up with the other two. It's corrected now for an accurate record).

ATS Record: 22-13-0 (+7.00 Units) (62%)
O/U Record: 19-20-0 (+9.00 Units) (49%)
Overall Record: 41-33-0 (+16.0 Units) (55%)

I'm going to take a different approach to capping games for the next week or so, and see where it takes us. I'm going to start going back to what I've always done but got away from: quality over quantity. If I do the actual legwork as far as research and keep my picks to the best possible ones, we'll be back on track in no time (hopefully).

NJN/PHI, U193 (4U)
I'm glad I was able to grab this at 193, as it has already started to move down to 192, and I imagine it will keep dropping to right around the 189-190 range by game time. This feels and looks a lot like the SA/NO game last night (1/23). The key to this game will be PHI's defense, and if it will be as strong at home as it has been all year (where they've only given up 82.7 ppg). They rank in the top 10 in all the major categories of offense and defense: Offensive PPG (3rd), shooting % (3rd), eFG% (5th), 2 point % (6th) and true shooting % (5th). Defensively, they're even stronger, where they give up 88 ppg (2nd). They rank great in other categories too: opp. shooting % (6th), eFG% (2nd), 2 point % (9th), and true shooting % (1st). They are one of the more well rounded teams in the leagues, as far as stats go at least. And they may even get Spencer Hawes back. He's not an all-star or superstar, but he is a important part to the team's defense. NJN, on the otherhand, is on the far spectrum to PHI, as NJN ranks 23rd in PPG, are their other rankings are as follows: the above offensive categories, they rank: 28th, 20th, 25th, and 18th, respectively. Defensively, they are quite possibly the worst team, as far as stats. Same above defensive categories, they rank 30th, 30th, 28th, and 30th, respectively. Against this very good offensive PHI team, they're likely to give up 90-95 easily. Against one of the top ranked defenses? I don't see them scoring more than 80, 85 tops. Lets not forget the teams OEFF and DEFF ranks: PHI OEFF- 2, DEFF- 1. NJN are OEFF-14, DEFF- 30. Nets are bad.. a bad, bad team. And lastly, you must include team fouls into an O/U equation, as those stop the game and give, essentially free points: PHI fouls the third lowest and NJN 13th. So I don't see this game being bogged down by fouls and free points just given away. I love this game and I like the final score being PHI 97 NJN 82

And to build off the above bet...
PHI -11 (3U)
The spread is starting to climb, as it opened at 10.5 and is now at -11 so I grabbed it before it hit 12 at game time (at least that's where I think it will end up). Both teams are coming in with a day off, but NJN may not be as rested as PHI: they played three straight games before their day off, so this will be their fourth game in five nights. This pick was not only about feel but about the records, plain and simple. PHI is 12-4-1 overall against the spread, while NJN are 8-10. But the next three ATS records for PHI really started pushing me towards the PHI side: PHI is 8-1 at home ATS, 4-1 in their last 5 home games ATS and after that blowout win against WSH, are now 4-0 as double digit favorites ATS. While NJN is a decent 2-3 as double digit dogs, their last four losses (3 of which were on the road) were all by double digits, with an average margin of defeat being 12. Everytime PHI has been double digit favorites, they've made me money. I gotta continue to roll with them until they prove me wrong.

[loungee]

As of 1/21
(I have noticed in my last couple of postings of my record the overall record doesn't add up with the other two. It's corrected now for an accurate record).

ATS Record: 22-13-0 (+7.00 Units) (62%)
O/U Record: 19-20-0 (+9.00 Units) (49%)
Overall Record: 41-33-0 (+16.0 Units) (55%)

I'm going to take a different approach to capping games for the next week or so, and see where it takes us. I'm going to start going back to what I've always done but got away from: quality over quantity. If I do the actual legwork as far as research and keep my picks to the best possible ones, we'll be back on track in no time (hopefully).

NJN/PHI, U193 (4U) WIN
I'm glad I was able to grab this at 193, as it has already started to move down to 192, and I imagine it will keep dropping to right around the 189-190 range by game time. This feels and looks a lot like the SA/NO game last night (1/23). The key to this game will be PHI's defense, and if it will be as strong at home as it has been all year (where they've only given up 82.7 ppg). They rank in the top 10 in all the major categories of offense and defense: Offensive PPG (3rd), shooting % (3rd), eFG% (5th), 2 point % (6th) and true shooting % (5th). Defensively, they're even stronger, where they give up 88 ppg (2nd). They rank great in other categories too: opp. shooting % (6th), eFG% (2nd), 2 point % (9th), and true shooting % (1st). They are one of the more well rounded teams in the leagues, as far as stats go at least. And they may even get Spencer Hawes back. He's not an all-star or superstar, but he is a important part to the team's defense. NJN, on the otherhand, is on the far spectrum to PHI, as NJN ranks 23rd in PPG, are their other rankings are as follows: the above offensive categories, they rank: 28th, 20th, 25th, and 18th, respectively. Defensively, they are quite possibly the worst team, as far as stats. Same above defensive categories, they rank 30th, 30th, 28th, and 30th, respectively. Against this very good offensive PHI team, they're likely to give up 90-95 easily. Against one of the top ranked defenses? I don't see them scoring more than 80, 85 tops. Lets not forget the teams OEFF and DEFF ranks: PHI OEFF- 2, DEFF- 1. NJN are OEFF-14, DEFF- 30. Nets are bad.. a bad, bad team. And lastly, you must include team fouls into an O/U equation, as those stop the game and give, essentially free points: PHI fouls the third lowest and NJN 13th. So I don't see this game being bogged down by fouls and free points just given away. I love this game and I like the final score being PHI 97 NJN 82

And to build off the above bet...
PHI -11 (3U) LOSS
The spread is starting to climb, as it opened at 10.5 and is now at -11 so I grabbed it before it hit 12 at game time (at least that's where I think it will end up). Both teams are coming in with a day off, but NJN may not be as rested as PHI: they played three straight games before their day off, so this will be their fourth game in five nights. This pick was not only about feel but about the records, plain and simple. PHI is 12-4-1 overall against the spread, while NJN are 8-10. But the next three ATS records for PHI really started pushing me towards the PHI side: PHI is 8-1 at home ATS, 4-1 in their last 5 home games ATS and after that blowout win against WSH, are now 4-0 as double digit favorites ATS. While NJN is a decent 2-3 as double digit dogs, their last four losses (3 of which were on the road) were all by double digits, with an average margin of defeat being 12. Everytime PHI has been double digit favorites, they've made me money. I gotta continue to roll with them until they prove me wrong.

It was nice to hit that O/U but I was pretty surprised with the outcome not only of the PHI -11, but PHI losing straight up. Either way, we added one unit. Would like to build on this as well with a couple of picks that I feel pretty confident in. Short writeups for both.

DEN -6 (1U)
DEN/SAC, O205 (1U)
DEN has been playing very good basketball, crusing along so far. DEN is 7-2 ATS on the road this year (overall 12-5) and 7-3 ATS in conference. Although they are on the road, I like this number and this spot because of DEN's uptempo game. DEN is a much better team then SAC, who will be missing Marcus Thornton (a very underrated player) and DeMarcus Cousins a game time decision. There will be very little defense on both sides, as SAC is playing their 4th in 6 days, and DEN.. well DEN just doesn't play defense, and isn't very interested in it. I'm not gonna go crazy on the units, and I don't have much time to get indepth on the analysis, but I really like these two plays.

[loungee]

It was nice to hit that O/U but I was pretty surprised with the outcome not only of the PHI -11, but PHI losing straight up. Either way, we added one unit. Would like to build on this as well with a couple of picks that I feel pretty confident in. Short writeups for both.

DEN -6 (1U) WIN
DEN/SAC, O205 (1U) WIN
DEN has been playing very good basketball, crusing along so far. DEN is 7-2 ATS on the road this year (overall 12-5) and 7-3 ATS in conference. Although they are on the road, I like this number and this spot because of DEN's uptempo game. DEN is a much better team then SAC, who will be missing Marcus Thornton (a very underrated player) and DeMarcus Cousins a game time decision. There will be very little defense on both sides, as SAC is playing their 4th in 6 days, and DEN.. well DEN just doesn't play defense, and isn't very interested in it. I'm not gonna go crazy on the units, and I don't have much time to get indepth on the analysis, but I really like these two plays.

Pretty successful night, considering the night before. Last minute I put the DEN -6 and Over into a $100 parlay so hitting those three bets made for a pretty nice night for the bankroll. Hope everyone cashed nicely. Small card for tomorrow so there might not be any plays whatsoever. But i'm already looking ahead to Fridays juicy card, with 13 games going on. Already have about 4-5 leans for the games on Friday but those will be determined when the lines come out. BOL

As of 1/25
ATS Record: 23-14-0 (+5.00 Units) (62%)
O/U Record: 21-20-0 (+14.00 Units) (51%)
Overall Record: 44-34-0 (+19.0 Units) (56%)

[loungee]

So far this NBA season, I have learned some important angles/aspects/information that I think are worth noting.

1.) When the Portland Trail Blazers are playing on the road, you best bet is to fade them.
POR is bad on the road (3-7 overall), as well as 3-7 ATS. When they are favorites, they are 2-3 and when they are dogs, they are 1-4. POR just doesn't travel well, whether they are rested, on a B2B or 3 in 4 days. Their points scored is down on the road compared to home and they're points allowed is up on the road compared to at home. When a lot of people on SBR were riding with POR last night (despite being on a B2B), I chose GSW for those two simple reasons: a B2B and on the road. Betting against them when on the road is going to net you positive points in the long run... unless they figure it out somehow.

2.) NEVER bet these teams (CHA, WSH, DET) unless the scenario is this: they play each other and the home team is favorite. Then you can.. with EXTREME caution.
I'll break this one down team by team.
DET is 6-13 overall ATS and 0-2 as favorites. Who the hell were they ever favorites against? Well, CLE early in the season before they actually became somewhat respectable and then a injured, tired GSW team (both games were at home). Of their 15 losses, 11 of them have been by double digits. Just an untrustworthy team all around (Don't let the MIA game fool you). Lone exception was when they were dogs against CHA on the road and won outright. It's all been a small sample size this year though.
WSH is 6-12 overall ATS and 2-1 as favorites. Once again.. this 3-15 team was favorites at one point? Well, they were favorites against NJN (first game of the season), TOR (another team that struggled early but looks good with Barangi(?)) and CHA and all these games were at home. Of their 15 losses, they've lost 8 by double digits. Fade them in just about every situation.. except of course if they're playing CHA. Apparently they can handle them, at home, as favorites.
CHA is turrible, as Barkley would say. I know, they've been injured all year but that is just apart of the game. All the more reason to fade them. I think they are the worst team in basketball, especially as of late with all their injuries (Hender, Maggette, Mullens, Augustin, to name a few). Overall, they're a decent 7-12 ATS, but they've lost both games they were favored in (DET and CLE). 10 of their 16 losses have been by double digits, with their last three games against subpar teams (NJN, NYK, and WSH) being by double digits. I'll be taking my chances and fading all three of these teams, and especially all three of these teams when they're on the road.

[loungee]

BOS/ORL, O174 (3U) PUSH
This line seems almost too good to be true.. almost too easy of money to take. But I'm going to roll with it. First of all, 82% of the public is on the over, yet it's fallen from 176 to 174. Fishy? A bit. My system gives us over 10 points of value, which is another good start to this play. One of the only problems I found with this is that just about every single O/U record points to the under so play with caution. But with ORL being absolutely embrassed earlier this week by BOS in beantown, ORL is going to look to run and gun, and absolutely destroy BOS early. Classic revenge game angle. Lastly, is the "BOS on the road" angle. BOS is terrible offensively at home, but pretty good defensively. On the road, they score close to 8 points more and give up 17.5 points per game on the road then they do at home. Although ORL is 6th in fewest fouls per game, BOS is 17th, which is no surprise, given their age and lack of quickness. Given the way the last game transpired, I see a lot of fouls throughout this game, both legal and dirty. T's are a plus and will be apleniful.

MEM/LAC, U192.5 (2U)
This has the makings of hitting for a variety of reasons. First of all, the line at 192.5 gives us almost 5 points of value to hit the under. On the road, MEM is 1-8 as far as O/U and their last five games on the road, they're 1-4. Even their stats as a dog (3-7) and away dog (0-7) point to the under. But it takes two teams to contribute to an under, and that's where the LAC come in to play. Overall, their last 5 and last 5 home point to a slight over tendency, but after a loss this year they are 2-3 and on no days rest? 0-3. These look to be in our favor. In fact, MEM scores more than 20 points per game lower on the road then at home, and typically get off to slow starts. Add in the fact they play better D (ppg-wise on the road), sprinkle in LAC allowing less ppg at home then their average, mix in their heartbreaking loss last night (where they were rolling almost the entire game and blew it), and this has under written all over it.

ORL -10 (1U) LOSS
A lot of the points to be made here are in the O/U writeup so I'm not going to go into to much detail. ORL is younger, faster, very hungry after the last game against BOS.. the revenge factor. I see this getting dirty early, and out of hand by halftime. This game is strictly a "game by feel" type of call so proceed with caution.

I wanted to take MEM +3.5 but I think these three plays are higher quality (especially the first two) so we'll roll with these. BOL

[sstrunks52005]

gl tonight

I'm on under boston/orlando. Usually when lines move down its going to be under
I think last night was only only time all the unders didn't result in positive returns/wash out

[loungee]

Well I hope you got it at 175 or 176 like a lot of people on here so you cashed. Push for me but hey, it's better then a loss. Pierce must've had money on the under, missing three (i think) FT in the fourth while ORL couldn't buy a bucket, scoring 8 in the entire quarter. And I don't even wanna start on the ORL -10 part of the play. I'm still stunned. Hopefully can cash the MEM/LAC under. BOL

[loungee]

BOS/ORL, O174 (3U) PUSH
This line seems almost too good to be true.. almost too easy of money to take. But I'm going to roll with it. First of all, 82% of the public is on the over, yet it's fallen from 176 to 174. Fishy? A bit. My system gives us over 10 points of value, which is another good start to this play. One of the only problems I found with this is that just about every single O/U record points to the under so play with caution. But with ORL being absolutely embrassed earlier this week by BOS in beantown, ORL is going to look to run and gun, and absolutely destroy BOS early. Classic revenge game angle. Lastly, is the "BOS on the road" angle. BOS is terrible offensively at home, but pretty good defensively. On the road, they score close to 8 points more and give up 17.5 points per game on the road then they do at home. Although ORL is 6th in fewest fouls per game, BOS is 17th, which is no surprise, given their age and lack of quickness. Given the way the last game transpired, I see a lot of fouls throughout this game, both legal and dirty. T's are a plus and will be apleniful.

MEM/LAC, U192.5 (2U) WIN
This has the makings of hitting for a variety of reasons. First of all, the line at 192.5 gives us almost 5 points of value to hit the under. On the road, MEM is 1-8 as far as O/U and their last five games on the road, they're 1-4. Even their stats as a dog (3-7) and away dog (0-7) point to the under. But it takes two teams to contribute to an under, and that's where the LAC come in to play. Overall, their last 5 and last 5 home point to a slight over tendency, but after a loss this year they are 2-3 and on no days rest? 0-3. These look to be in our favor. In fact, MEM scores more than 20 points per game lower on the road then at home, and typically get off to slow starts. Add in the fact they play better D (ppg-wise on the road), sprinkle in LAC allowing less ppg at home then their average, mix in their heartbreaking loss last night (where they were rolling almost the entire game and blew it), and this has under written all over it.

ORL -10 (1U) LOSS
A lot of the points to be made here are in the O/U writeup so I'm not going to go into to much detail. ORL is younger, faster, very hungry after the last game against BOS.. the revenge factor. I see this getting dirty early, and out of hand by halftime. This game is strictly a "game by feel" type of call so proceed with caution.

I wanted to take MEM +3.5 but I think these three plays are higher quality (especially the first two) so we'll roll with these. BOL

Not a big night, but a profitable one none the less. Waiting for the lines on my leans to come out before I can do any writeups.

As of 1/26

ATS Record: 23-15-0 (+4.00 Units) (61%)
O/U Record: 22-20-1 (+14.00 Units) (52%)
Overall Record: 45-35-1 (+18.0 Units) (56%)

[loungee]

I'll post the plays throughout the day from my phone as the lines are posted with the writeup coming later. Not quite sure what is taking the books/Vegas so long to post then since only four teams played last night but whatever.

ORL/NO, U178 (2U)

[loungee]

i'll post the plays throughout the day from my phone as the lines are posted with the writeup coming later. Not quite sure what is taking the books/vegas so long to post then since only four teams played last night but whatever.

Orl/no, u178 (2u)

mil/chi, o184 (2u)

[loungee]

jfg

[loungee]

Well, here we go. A nice, juciy card for tonight, and the lines seemed to fall in favor of me. BOL to all.

MIL/CHI, O184 (4U)
This number has "over" written all over it. Let's get the negatives out of the way: Bogut, MIL's star center, has been ruled out (he's not a huge scoring threat but a big piece for MIL); CHI is allowing 78.9 points per game at home this season; MIL only scores 89.7 points per game this season on the road and I think that about does it. Reasons to bet the over? CHI is a very good defensive team, especially at home, but with all their injuries recently (Gibson, Rose, Deng), they're defensive numbers have suffered immensely. Of their last 6 games, 5 have gone over, and all of them have had similiar O/U lines (174, 183, 185, 181, 189, 187). Without argubly their best defensive player (especially on the perimeter) in Deng, they haven't been able to play a whole lot of defense. Gibson injury ties in with this, as he is a stud on defense for that second team. MIL is far from the inept scoring offense and tough defense of years before, which is a surprise under Skiles. They can score. With Bogut out, I like this over even more because they don't need to worry about feeding it downlow at all (not like they were before), which opens up Stephen Jackson, Jennings, Delfino, Beno and Dunleavy (hold laughter) to throw up shot after shot. What, are they gonna feed Gooden downlow? Nah. He can hit the 12 footer though, which is good. I see this being a blowout, though, and there being a lot of garbage time points for MIL. Even if it is a blowout, CHI starters will be in there til the end, running up and down, and pouring it on. Thibs philosophy. I love it.


CHI -11.5 (3U)
In keeping with the previous post, I don't see this not being a blowout. I live in CHI, i've listened to all the interviews, all the sports radio and all the coverage about both the IND loss and coverage leading up to this game. The Bulls are pissed. After the loss in the IND game, they were able to hear IND celebrating in the vistor locking room like they just won the NBA Championship. You think that's in the back of Rose's mind? Thibs? Noah? Absolutely. Unforunately, MIL is the team that is going to pay the price for IND's overcelebrating. Here's some CHI stats for you: CHI is 3-2 (one point away from 4-1) as double digit favorites this year; 12 of their 16 wins are by double digits (10 of which were by 12), beating pretty good teams like LAC, MEM, ORL and PHO; and versus the division they're 3-1 ATS. MIL is 7-10 ATS this year and 4-7 on the road. They couldn't cover against teams like CHA, WSH and SAC. They're gonna cover, basically, 12 points against a better, stronger, angry team like the Bulls? One angle I've heard swirling around SBR is that the Bulls won't be focused because they're looking ahead to MIA Sunday. Nope. Don't buy it. They've got a day off in between, first of all. And second of all, that's not Thibs style. Anyone dogs it, they're benched. Take CHI here.


HOU -9.5 (2U)
I'm not overly confident in this now with news that Kevin Martin is a game-time decision, but still confident enough to put two units on it. HOU isn't all Martin... not by a long stretch. If you've been following me, you know I love me some Luis Scola. Budinger, Dragic and Lee are solid off the bench, and Kyle Lowry has been phenomonal this year. WSH is one of those three teams that I will never bet on, except in certain situations. They're a lottery teams for years to come. WSH has Wall, Young and.. well that's about it. McGee is a bit overrated, Lewis is over the hill, Vesely is too raw, Blatche is REALLY overrated and the rest of just fillers. I don't see this game being too difficult for HOU to cover, especially against such a young, untalented team like WSH who are bound to make many dumb mistakes throughout the game.


ORL/NO, U178 (2U)
Seem as if I didn't have the right writeup for this game up. Here goes: I'm tired of this overrated, sluggish, weak ORL team. They truly are garbage. Would Rose, Bryant or Durant allow a collaspe happen like it did in ORL last night? Would they allow their team to score 8 points in a 4th quarter against a rival team in a revenge game? I don't think so. Maybe it's time to reconsider how we think of Howard and his true worth to a team. This is a against-the-system play, as my system gives us a +5.825 value points, so as always, proceed with caution. NO is middle of the pack type team on offense, but defensively, they're actually above average. They've struggled to score, for the most part, with Gordon out, and will continue to do so in this game. We all know by now ORL is overrated, scoring under 90 points in 3 of their last 5 games. If they have an off night as far as shooting, they're doomed. They constructed this team by surrounding Howard by shooters (and not very consistent ones either). Although ORL is on a B2B and the possibility of them being fatigued and not playing much defense (they haven't played any so far this year, why start now?), I think Howard is very embrassed by the last two games against BOS. Yeah.. he's a goofy dude, and he doesn't seem to care and all that. But I think he really took the last collaspe against BOS hard, as he let his emotions get the best of him and get T'd up. I think he comes out and has a strong game, both offensively and defensively, to prove he is still that dominant big guy, the only dominant big guy, in the league. It's a little outside what I would normally pick, but given both teams struggles on offense, and both defenses being average, I don't think either one of these teams hit 90.

MIA -11 (2U)
The New York Knicks are a joke of a team. Plain and simple. And it feels good to say being a Bulls fan. They're an even bigger joke when it comes to ATS. They have covered one time in their last eight games, and are 4-14 overall this year. NYK have been favorites 13 times in their 18 games this year, and yet their 7-11. This team just simply gave up to much for Melo who, by the way, is out for tonight's game. And now with the swirling rumors of trading Amare, this team is going to collaspe tonight. Amare already has a fragile ego and mindset, what do you think this trade talk is going to do to him? This line might be a little inflated (I expected -8.5/-9) but I'll still take it given the absolute mess the Knicks are, and the roll the Heat have been on. One little trend I noticed about the Heat in their last 12 games: they've alternated covering games in three's over those 12 games. Guess what they did their last three games? Failed to cover. A continuing trend perhaps? I'm not basing my pick on that but I found it interesting. They're rolling on all cylinders without Wade so with him still out, I like this pick.

And these are only really the early games. I may have some plays for late. BOL

[loungee]

UPDATE: D. Wade is playing tonight. I don't know how i feel about that. You would think that a team's superstar coming back from injury would be great for a spread bet but the Heat have been on such a good roll, playing well as a team, that I don't know if Wade coming back is going to disrupt that. We'll see.

[loungee]

Well, here we go. A nice, juciy card for tonight, and the lines seemed to fall in favor of me. BOL to all.

MIL/CHI, O184 (4U) WIN
This number has "over" written all over it. Let's get the negatives out of the way: Bogut, MIL's star center, has been ruled out (he's not a huge scoring threat but a big piece for MIL); CHI is allowing 78.9 points per game at home this season; MIL only scores 89.7 points per game this season on the road and I think that about does it. Reasons to bet the over? CHI is a very good defensive team, especially at home, but with all their injuries recently (Gibson, Rose, Deng), they're defensive numbers have suffered immensely. Of their last 6 games, 5 have gone over, and all of them have had similiar O/U lines (174, 183, 185, 181, 189, 187). Without argubly their best defensive player (especially on the perimeter) in Deng, they haven't been able to play a whole lot of defense. Gibson injury ties in with this, as he is a stud on defense for that second team. MIL is far from the inept scoring offense and tough defense of years before, which is a surprise under Skiles. They can score. With Bogut out, I like this over even more because they don't need to worry about feeding it downlow at all (not like they were before), which opens up Stephen Jackson, Jennings, Delfino, Beno and Dunleavy (hold laughter) to throw up shot after shot. What, are they gonna feed Gooden downlow? Nah. He can hit the 12 footer though, which is good. I see this being a blowout, though, and there being a lot of garbage time points for MIL. Even if it is a blowout, CHI starters will be in there til the end, running up and down, and pouring it on. Thibs philosophy. I love it.


CHI -11.5 (3U) LOSS
In keeping with the previous post, I don't see this not being a blowout. I live in CHI, i've listened to all the interviews, all the sports radio and all the coverage about both the IND loss and coverage leading up to this game. The Bulls are pissed. After the loss in the IND game, they were able to hear IND celebrating in the vistor locking room like they just won the NBA Championship. You think that's in the back of Rose's mind? Thibs? Noah? Absolutely. Unforunately, MIL is the team that is going to pay the price for IND's overcelebrating. Here's some CHI stats for you: CHI is 3-2 (one point away from 4-1) as double digit favorites this year; 12 of their 16 wins are by double digits (10 of which were by 12), beating pretty good teams like LAC, MEM, ORL and PHO; and versus the division they're 3-1 ATS. MIL is 7-10 ATS this year and 4-7 on the road. They couldn't cover against teams like CHA, WSH and SAC. They're gonna cover, basically, 12 points against a better, stronger, angry team like the Bulls? One angle I've heard swirling around SBR is that the Bulls won't be focused because they're looking ahead to MIA Sunday. Nope. Don't buy it. They've got a day off in between, first of all. And second of all, that's not Thibs style. Anyone dogs it, they're benched. Take CHI here.


HOU -9.5 (2U) WIN
I'm not overly confident in this now with news that Kevin Martin is a game-time decision, but still confident enough to put two units on it. HOU isn't all Martin... not by a long stretch. If you've been following me, you know I love me some Luis Scola. Budinger, Dragic and Lee are solid off the bench, and Kyle Lowry has been phenomonal this year. WSH is one of those three teams that I will never bet on, except in certain situations. They're a lottery teams for years to come. WSH has Wall, Young and.. well that's about it. McGee is a bit overrated, Lewis is over the hill, Vesely is too raw, Blatche is REALLY overrated and the rest of just fillers. I don't see this game being too difficult for HOU to cover, especially against such a young, untalented team like WSH who are bound to make many dumb mistakes throughout the game.


ORL/NO, U178 (2U) WIN
Seem as if I didn't have the right writeup for this game up. Here goes: I'm tired of this overrated, sluggish, weak ORL team. They truly are garbage. Would Rose, Bryant or Durant allow a collaspe happen like it did in ORL last night? Would they allow their team to score 8 points in a 4th quarter against a rival team in a revenge game? I don't think so. Maybe it's time to reconsider how we think of Howard and his true worth to a team. This is a against-the-system play, as my system gives us a +5.825 value points, so as always, proceed with caution. NO is middle of the pack type team on offense, but defensively, they're actually above average. They've struggled to score, for the most part, with Gordon out, and will continue to do so in this game. We all know by now ORL is overrated, scoring under 90 points in 3 of their last 5 games. If they have an off night as far as shooting, they're doomed. They constructed this team by surrounding Howard by shooters (and not very consistent ones either). Although ORL is on a B2B and the possibility of them being fatigued and not playing much defense (they haven't played any so far this year, why start now?), I think Howard is very embrassed by the last two games against BOS. Yeah.. he's a goofy dude, and he doesn't seem to care and all that. But I think he really took the last collaspe against BOS hard, as he let his emotions get the best of him and get T'd up. I think he comes out and has a strong game, both offensively and defensively, to prove he is still that dominant big guy, the only dominant big guy, in the league. It's a little outside what I would normally pick, but given both teams struggles on offense, and both defenses being average, I don't think either one of these teams hit 90.

MIA -11 (2U) LOSS
The New York Knicks are a joke of a team. Plain and simple. And it feels good to say being a Bulls fan. They're an even bigger joke when it comes to ATS. They have covered one time in their last eight games, and are 4-14 overall this year. NYK have been favorites 13 times in their 18 games this year, and yet their 7-11. This team just simply gave up to much for Melo who, by the way, is out for tonight's game. And now with the swirling rumors of trading Amare, this team is going to collaspe tonight. Amare already has a fragile ego and mindset, what do you think this trade talk is going to do to him? This line might be a little inflated (I expected -8.5/-9) but I'll still take it given the absolute mess the Knicks are, and the roll the Heat have been on. One little trend I noticed about the Heat in their last 12 games: they've alternated covering games in three's over those 12 games. Guess what they did their last three games? Failed to cover. A continuing trend perhaps? I'm not basing my pick on that but I found it interesting. They're rolling on all cylinders without Wade so with him still out, I like this pick.

And these are only really the early games. I may have some plays for late. BOL

MIA -7 1H -105 (3U) LOSS
I saw the reduced odds and had to jump all over it. I suggest you all do the same. This SHOULD be easy money but there are no guaruntees obviously.

[loungee]

okc -4.5 (2u) WIN

[loungee]

por -1 2h (1u) WIN

[loungee]

ATS Record: 26-17-0 (+4.00 Units) (60%)
O/U Record: 24-21-1 (+17.00 Units) (53%)
Overall Record: 50-38-1 (+21.0 Units) (57%)

Not a bad night overall, adding +3.00 units, and a bucket away from adding another 2. Only 5 games tomorrow, but I'm already eyeing a few plays. Hope everyone had a positive night.

[loungee]

Plays for 1/28
There's quite a few plays I like so far, after doing all my due dilligence. These are my early plays for now.

WSH/CHA, O184.5 (2U)
This is one of those nice games where both teams are, quite possibly, the 1-2 worst teams in the league, more notably defensively. They are both in the bottom 5 in the four shooting % categories, as well as 96 points or more both throughout the year, and on the road/home, respectively. I'm not getting a ton of value from my system (only +1.15) but both of these teams are on B2B and given they're terrible play on defense, I think they can safely hit over 184.5. It is a little worrisome that both teams are pretty inept on the offensive side of the ball (once again, both ranking in the bottom five in respective shooting categories), I think the bad defense will outweigh the bad offense, and allow for plenty of scoring. Defense will be thin, given the fatigue spot so I am rolling with this over and feeling pretty confident in it.

DET/PHI, O 176.5 (2U)
Now DET is even worse offensively then WSH and CHA, but as a team, they're just not quite down to their level. Given the fact that PHI is a top offense in the league and DET has one of the worst statistical defenses, I think PHI easily scores 95-100 on a bad and tired defense, and wins by 15. The hard part of this over/under equation is figuring out if DET can keep up their end of the deal against a top 5 defense. DET knows they can't stop PHI defensively so they're just going to try and outshoot them throughout the entire night, with shooters like Gordon (thank you DET for taking him), Knight, Stuckey and Prince. Granted, they won't be able too, and probably not be able to keep this game close, but I think they can at least score 80ish points.

LAL -5 (1U)
I've been going back and forth with this, and the more I think about it, the more I like LAL. They finally got a nice, semi-important win against a good team like the LAC, and seem to be moving in the right direction as a team. MIL is coming off a bad loss in CHI, where they were in it throughout the first half and parts of the third quarter, until they started making stupid mistakes, costly errors and turnovers. LAL, like CHI, will capitalize on such mistakes, making MIL pay to the tune of an 8 point win. I could throw stats and such at you, but I'm just gonna save the time and say take LAL. This pick has a little more feel to it then stats and angles.

MEM/PHO, U191.5 (1U)
There really isn't much to this pick. MEM is bad (scoring wise) on the road, averaging almost a full 9 points less on the road then their season average. PHO just isn't a good offensive team anymore, not like they once were, where you could almost count on them on a daily basis to hit a over. Against POR, an average defense, they scored 71 points, most of which were garbage time 4th quarter points. Since they are at home, I think they'll keep this one close, limiting any garbage time points like last night. MEM still wins, but I see it more of a 87-80 type of game.

[BigBurk]

This is the first time I stumble upon your thread and I immediately ask myself why this thread seems to be so overlooked.. You have a great YTD record and seem to place some good write ups!

I know a lot of this forum's so called great cappers who's records don't even come close to yours but seem to have a lotttt of followers and people reacting on their posts. Strange! Keep up the great work and I will most definiely check in often to see if our plays match!

[loungee]

Thank you for checking out my thread, and all the encouragement. I hope I am able to help you in adding to your bankroll. Best of luck.

[loungee]

Plays for 1/28
There's quite a few plays I like so far, after doing all my due dilligence. These are my early plays for now.

WSH/CHA, O184.5 (2U) WIN
This is one of those nice games where both teams are, quite possibly, the 1-2 worst teams in the league, more notably defensively. They are both in the bottom 5 in the four shooting % categories, as well as 96 points or more both throughout the year, and on the road/home, respectively. I'm not getting a ton of value from my system (only +1.15) but both of these teams are on B2B and given they're terrible play on defense, I think they can safely hit over 184.5. It is a little worrisome that both teams are pretty inept on the offensive side of the ball (once again, both ranking in the bottom five in respective shooting categories), I think the bad defense will outweigh the bad offense, and allow for plenty of scoring. Defense will be thin, given the fatigue spot so I am rolling with this over and feeling pretty confident in it.

DET/PHI, O 176.5 (2U) LOSS
Now DET is even worse offensively then WSH and CHA, but as a team, they're just not quite down to their level. Given the fact that PHI is a top offense in the league and DET has one of the worst statistical defenses, I think PHI easily scores 95-100 on a bad and tired defense, and wins by 15. The hard part of this over/under equation is figuring out if DET can keep up their end of the deal against a top 5 defense. DET knows they can't stop PHI defensively so they're just going to try and outshoot them throughout the entire night, with shooters like Gordon (thank you DET for taking him), Knight, Stuckey and Prince. Granted, they won't be able too, and probably not be able to keep this game close, but I think they can at least score 80ish points.

LAL -5 (1U) LOSS
I've been going back and forth with this, and the more I think about it, the more I like LAL. They finally got a nice, semi-important win against a good team like the LAC, and seem to be moving in the right direction as a team. MIL is coming off a bad loss in CHI, where they were in it throughout the first half and parts of the third quarter, until they started making stupid mistakes, costly errors and turnovers. LAL, like CHI, will capitalize on such mistakes, making MIL pay to the tune of an 8 point win. I could throw stats and such at you, but I'm just gonna save the time and say take LAL. This pick has a little more feel to it then stats and angles.

MEM/PHO, U191.5 (1U) WIN
There really isn't much to this pick. MEM is bad (scoring wise) on the road, averaging almost a full 9 points less on the road then their season average. PHO just isn't a good offensive team anymore, not like they once were, where you could almost count on them on a daily basis to hit a over. Against POR, an average defense, they scored 71 points, most of which were garbage time 4th quarter points. Since they are at home, I think they'll keep this one close, limiting any garbage time points like last night. MEM still wins, but I see it more of a 87-80 type of game.

Well, I took a gamble on the Philly game, hoping DET could keep their end of the bargain but to no avail. Can't win them all. And speaking of winning them all, that LAL game was disappointing from start to finish. We ended up having a break even day (minus the juice though). I didn't have any time to post my late plays (HOU -6.5 and SAC +9) so obviously those didn't count towards my record on here but all in all, I'll take a push over a loss any day.

[Upyourgame]

been following your thread, solid stuff. any leans today?

[loungee]

been following your thread, solid stuff. any leans today?

Just in time. In the middle of writeups for my plays as of now. They'll be posed in the next 15 minutes.

[loungee]

ATS Record: 26-18-0 (+3.00 Units) (59%)
O/U Record: 26-22-1 (+18.00 Units) (54%)
Overall Record: 52-40-1 (+21.0 Units) (57%)

I don't have a ton of time for indepth writeups today but I'll post the basic and important aspects of each play. BOL to all.


SA/DAL, O188 (2U)
I'd like to break this play down by each team first. SA is the 5th highest scoring team in the league, averaging 98.5 PPG, while DAL is only 18th with 93 PPG. Right there gives us 191.5 points scored in this game, which means if the O/U is set at 188, the defenses must be pretty good. Not even close. While DAL is a very good 4th in the league with 89.8 PPG (90.2 at home), SA is 17th with 95.3 PPG. On the road, they're abysmal, giving up 102.4 PPG which is almost a full 13 points more per game on the road then at home. Wth every SA O/U writeup I have done this year when they are on the road, I have mentioned this and I mentioned it again for a good reason: this tells me when on the road, SA has absolutely no interest in playing defense. They wanna run the score up, jack up shots while using little energy and get out of there. Stats and angles are there. Many more to go into but just take the over.


CHI +4.5 (2U)
Just like IND did to CHI earlier this week (avenge last seasons playoff losses), CHI does the same. They're tougher then MIA, they've got a better bench, they're a better rebounding team, better blocking, they turnover the ball less, make better passes (assists are higher), they just aren't a fouling team (second least in the league), and the better coach. Although MIA has "those 3," we've seen that it doesn't always translate to wins. They've got nice individual defenders, but as a team defensively, they're nothing what they were last year. If Deng does play, him and Wade would be a wash, given they both won't be a 100%. The key to this game will be Boozer. If he can continue to score 20+ like he has been, and Rip hit's his shots, CHI should keep this close, and even win this outright.


CHI/MIA, U191 (2U)
MIA is going to come out running, trying to keep the pace uptempo, showing they are still the best team in the East after the 4-1 series win against CHI last year. CHI has something else in mind. This is going to be a slow moving, methodical game and given that it is a national televised, primetime-type of game, it's going to be all about execution.


IND +3 (1U)
Revenge game for getting blown out earlier by ORL. ORL has looked truly awful the past two weeks. In their last 3 losses, they've scored 67, 56 and 83 (which was a miracle). The last time they scored above 90 was their win against this very IND team. As stated earlier, this is a classic revenge game. IND is a prideful, tough, gritty team who will come into ORL and possibly win straight up. ORL is no longer an automatic top 4 team in the east anymore, with CHI, MIA, PHI taking the first three, and ATL/IND/BOS/ORL fighting for the fourth seed. I think IND actually goes and wins this.


SA +5.5 (1U)
DAL is without Dirk, has a (apparently) out of shape, slow-moving Lamar Odom, who is set to sit out next like Dirk and an overall aging team. SA isn't a ton much younger but they've drafted and signed well, and have a pretty deep bench. I don't think DAL is going to keep up with SA's road run-and-gun style.

AFC/NFC, O73.5 (1U)
Do what you would like with this pick, but given the following facts, the over should hit: it's an all star game, which means no defense will be played; the average points scored by the winning team over the last 6(?) Pro Bowls was 44; and it's an all star game.. no defense will be played. I'm throwing a little money on it but nothing out of hand.