[loungee]

MIN 1Q, O49 (2U) WIN
Both teams, defensively, give up an average of 25.4 points combined in the first quarter so far this year, and even though they're not exactly potent offenses in the first quarter (combined to average 22 points), both of these teams will be fatigued as they are both playing they're third game in four days. Defense will be few and far between, and I believe these teams can both score at least 25 points each in this first quarter.

OKC -2.5 (1U) WIN
Ok.. I get it. This is supposed to be a trap game. OKC only two point favorites is to good to be true. Everyone is saying it's a trap game so it must be, right? Well, no, not necessarily. It was a trap game when CHI came to BOS last Friday and were only favorites by 3.5, and that didn't exactly turn out how everyone thought. This will only be OKC's 2nd game in 5 days, while BOS is playing their 4th in 6 days. The ATS records at away and home, respectively, are not much different with OKC 3-3 away and BOS 2-4 at home. Despite 80% of the public being on OKC, I am actually going to go with OKC, as I like to fade the public in types of games like this. OKC is younger, bigger and better then BOS. I don't buy the angle that "BOS gets up for big games like this" (see Bulls, Chicago on 1/13), and I especially don't buy "there's no way BOS loses five in a row" or "BOS needs this win" because as a wise man once said, if a team NEEDS a win, then they must not be that good.

DAL/LAL 1Q, O 46.5 (1U) LOSS
DAL +3.5 (1U) WIN
To get this game started off, I believe the LAL will want to come out firing, especially Kobe, given he's been dropping 40+ a night the last couple of games and wants to come out with something to prove against the defending World Champions. The Mavs are going to want to come out firing as well, trying to establish themselves on LAL's home court, in front of a national audience. DAL last two games didn't require much energy (winning by 39 and 26, respectively) on top of a day off, they'll be pushing hard in the first quarter. Both these teams are on the older side so I expect it to slow down in the second quarter, with DAL outside shooting keeping it close. Both teams combine, on average, to score 49.9 points per 1st quarter, so my pick is over in the first quarter and DAL keeping it close throughout.

There might be a few picks later. Check back.

[jjeagle]

MIN 1Q, O49 (2U)
Both teams, defensively, give up an average of 25.4 points combined in the first quarter so far this year, and even though they're not exactly potent offenses in the first quarter (combined to average 22 points), both of these teams will be fatigued as they are both playing they're third game in four days. Defense will be few and far between, and I believe these teams can both score at least 25 points each in this first quarter.

cashed in! Thanks!!

based on your write up, I went 3u on your OKC call. lookin good so far. BOL to us

[loungee]

DAL/LAL U182.5 (2U) WIN
Like I said in the previous post, I believe this game will start uptempo, and then fall back down to earth with an emphasis on defense and execution. Both these teams are on the older side, so for it to stay uptempo and fast is a bit of a stretch. I think this will be a slow, methodical game, where niether team reaches 90.

[loungee]

Well.. I didn't expect DAL and LAL to shoot a combined 30% from the field in the first quarter. Chalk it up as a loss and hit the other two I suppose.

[jjeagle]

DAL/LAL U182.5 (2U)
Like I said in the previous post, I believe this game will start uptempo, and then fall back down to earth with an emphasis on defense and execution. Both these teams are on the older side, so for it to stay uptempo and fast is a bit of a stretch. I think this will be a slow, methodical game, where niether team reaches 90.

i missed this one. looking good for you and tailers

[loungee]

Glad you upped the units on the OKC game. I did the same right before gametime. Just a hunch. BOL

[loungee]

As of the end of the day, 1/16:

ATS Record: 16-6-0 (+15.00 Units) (73%)
O/U Record: 6-6-0 (+3.00 Units) (50%)
Overall Record: 22-12-0 (+18.0 Units) (65%)

Overall, not a good day/night for me. Even though I ended up being +2.00 units, my early bonehead plays cost me a much more successful night. On to tomorrow though. Here's an early play for tomorrow

ORL -12 (3U)
To tired to do a complete writeup so I'll save that for tomorrow, but i'm pretty confident in this one.

[loungee]

Plays for 1/17

ORL -12 (3u) LOSS
As I stated above, this is going to be a little bit bigger than my usual plays for a couple of reasons: CHA is playing their 5th game in 6 days, while ORL is on a b2b but with two days rest prior to these games. ORL is a far superior team in every which way, except for maybe heart and passion. But in the NBA, heart and passion will only take you so far. It takes skill to win, or keep it close for that matter. And skill is what CHA lacks and ORL has quite a bit of. With radio, television, internet, newspapers.. every possible media outlet talking about Dwight and how he dogged it, gave up and didn't give his best effort against NY, I can see him coming out and being an absolute terror. And now they are coming home after a four game road trip, where they are much better and more comfortable. And if that's not enough, in keeping with the "ORL is at home" trend, here's this: they are 4-1 and in those 4 wins, they have won by an average of 12.25 points per game. Works for me.

CHA/ORL 1Q O 50 (1U) LOSS
I am kind of taking a flier on this one because that first quarter points scored and points allowed this year for both teams points to the under, I am choosing the over because of the lack of defense that will be played in this game, especially by CHA who, like i said, is playing their 5th game in 6 days.

HOU -7.5 (2U) WIN
It's Detroit. Everytime I've bet against them this year, I've won. Once in awhile they'll surprise us by beating a bad team such as CHA, but HOU is not a bad team whatsoever. If you've been reading my posts this year, you know I really like Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry, who are two of the most underrated players in the league. They get no love. Even though they are playing their 4th game in 5 days, DET is playing their 4th in 6 days, and are on the road, traveling to HOU. HOU's record does do them justice at all. Consider who they've played: ORL, SA, MEM, ATL, LAL, LAC, OKC (b2b), SA and POR. They were able to beat SA, ATL and POR. That's a tough schedule to start the season with, and they hung tough in all of them. I can see them getting out, running and gunning, and beating this AWFUL Pistons team by 14.

PHO/CHI, U 182 (2U) LOSS
This almost seems to good to be true, as I thought this line would be around the 175 area. PHO is by no means the high powered, scoring machine they once were and CHI is #1 in PPG allowed in the league at 85 points, and even more astonishing, they have given up 75 points or more at home this year, averaging 66.8 points per game. That's ridiclious. With or without Rose, I don't see this being a very fast paced game. The Bulls will also look to be having a much better showing after their embrassing loss to MEM on MLK day.

[loungee]

Adding:
LAC/UT, 3Q U 47.5 (2U) WIN
LAC/UT, 2H U 94.5 (3U) WIN

[loungee]

ATS Record: 16-6-0 (+13.00 Units) (73%)
O/U Record: 8-8-0 (+6.00 Units) (50%)
Overall Record: 24-14-0 (+19.0 Units) (63%)

Well, by my standards, it was a disappointing day.. disappointing two days. Yes, I added units but back to back days of three losses is unexceptable. Overall for the day, I went 3-3 (+2.00 U). Tomorrow there will be less overanalyzing and overthinking, and back to trusting my gut a little more like the first couple of days.

[ksnooksk]

We got that 2h by the hook. Feels good man.

[jjeagle]

yeah, that clips 2h under was way too close. not too bad of a day after those last 2 adds.

[loungee]

Thanks guys. Glad you hit. I really didn't have much hope for that 2H play with the way things were going in that game but I'll take what I can get. BOL ahead. I'll have plays posted early tomorrow.

[loungee]

Sorry I couldn't post them early. Part of the reason I wanted to post early was, obviously, line movement. I was able to get DEN/PHI O201 early in the day, but within an hour or so, it jumped up to 204. I can't reccommend taking it now. Anyways, here are the plays for today:
Plays for 1/18

POR +2 (1U) LOSS
I like POR here for multiple reasons. For one, matchups. ATL has got some good outside shooting, as does POR. But who will their answer be for LaMarcus Aldridge? Josh Smith? Perhaps. But one of two things will happen: either he will have to expunge a lot of energy to try and keep Aldridge incheck (and I say try cause Aldridge is a beast this year), which in turns makes him settle for outside shots. That is what I would love, as he continually takes bad outside shots, despite bricking over and over. Or two, he puts forth a lackluster effort on D so he can still get his offense, allowing Aldridge to run wild. Beside the fact that Jamal Crawford is coming back to town and will look to embrass ATL for letting him go. Each teams ATS records away (POR) and home (ATL) are sub .500 with POR being 2-4-0 and ATL being 3-4-0. However, with this spread so low, I think Batum will be the wildcard tonight. He has been lighting it up recently, and most of this year, and I just don't see POR losing this. But to be on the safe side, i'll take the points.


OKC/WSH, 1Q U50 (1U) WIN
When I saw the first quarter set at 50, I jumped on this. I couldn't believe it was this high. 25 points per team doesn't seem like a lot, but the stats say otherwise: these teams points per first quarter scored (both away/home and throughout the year) and these teams points allowed per first quarter (both away/home and throughout the year) combined put this number at 45.775. That is quite a bit of value. Both of these teams had the night off so I think some defense will be attempted. And even though OKC is playing their third game in five days (a game off in between each game) and WSH playing their fourth game in six days, I just don't see this going over 50. That, and the first quarter unders have been hitting at a remarbable pace this year because teams have not been able to get into a rhythm yet because of the lockout.

TOR/BOS, 1Q U44 (1U) WIN
These teams are atrocious when it comes to scoring in the first quarter, and I am not exagerrating either.. stats don't lie. For example, BOS is averaging 17.7(!) points in the first quarter AT HOME! That's not a good team. Age is defintely showing now. Personnally I believe this team is done, but that means nothing right now. TOR will have problem scoring, again, without Bargnani again. He may return Friday or Sunday. Either way, I just don't see either of these teams scoring a lot period, let alone in the first quarter. Yeah.. BOS may want to come out and make a statement since they are on a five game losing streak and blah blah blah. I don't buy it and I don't trust them. This should go under but it'll be close.

PHI -6 (1U) LOSS

This loss wasn't as tough to swallow as you might think. Granted I am not happy, as they lead by 9 at the end of the 1st Q, and led by as much as 14 with 8:18 left in the second. How you end up getting man handled by 15 in the 2nd Q (a 29 point swing) is beyond me. But I ended up winning my big play of the night, the aforementioned O201 for this game, thanks to a well deserved OT. Of course, this play doesn't count towards my record on here as it was unoffical, but it was nice to get paid on it.

This one was tough, fighting between my gut instinct and the stats. PHI is good this year.. surprisingly good, and have been rolling pretty well. DEN is 5-1-0 ATS on the road this year, which is pretty impressive. So why bet against them? Well, PHI is 6-0-0 ATS at home so far, and actually have been pretty consistent, for me at least, as far as covering so far. But this is what leaned me towards PHI side: DEN is playing their third game in four days, on a B2B and this is only their second game of a five game roadtrip. I can definetly see a let down by DEN in this spot. However, PHI is playing their fourth game in six days but did have last night off.

I may have a MEM/NO or DET/MIN play for the 7:00 games but if not, I will defintely have plays on the late games. BOL

[loungee]

Last play for the early games:
DET/MIN 1H, U93 (1U) WIN

[loungee]

Adds for late games:

IND -5.5 (2U) LOSS
I'm a little uncertain why this spread is so low so if anyone wants to give their best shot at explaining it to me, I'm all ears. IND is a much better team, both individual talents and has a team. SAC is just a mess in all phases of the game, whether it be offense, defense, team chemistry.. everything. This isn't the reason why i think the spread is so low. I mean, yes IND is away too, but the schedule is what caught my eye: SAC played 3 games in 4 days before they had last night off. IND? They've had three nights off. THREE! I thought that was unusal considering the condensed schedule. With IND being well rested and a better team, I think they come out firing on all cylinders. Despite IND being 3-4 ATS on the road, and SAC being a respectable 3-2-1 ATS at home, I'm liking IND with everything they've got going in their direction.

DAL -3 (2U) LOSS
This one was a little harder to pick for me, even with CP3 ruled out. But i'm taking DAL here for a few reasons. DAL got done playing 3 games in 4 nights before their night off last night, which was much needed, after their hard fought, heart breaking lost to LAL where they were in it the entire time, and actually, should have won it. On the road, ATS, they are a pretty good, 4-2-0. The LAC are an even better 5-2-0 ATS at home, but a lot of those games were with CP3. They've struggled the last two games without their point man. Yes, they're 1-1 but they beat a pathetic NJN team and got absolutely dismantled and destroyed by a good UT team.. but not that good. They're are playing their 4th game in 5 nights, as they traveled from UT back to LA last night. All signs point to DAL, and I am not one to argue.

[loungee]

Tough night so far, what with the choke jobs by PHI and especially IND, considering they entered the fourth quarter up 14 and proceeded to score only 8 points. But I guess that's why they play the games. POR game was a little tough, considering they were down by 5, no way to win and Jamal Crawford runs in to take a 2? He's a 3 ball jacking machine, and all of a sudden he doesn't want it? Stat padding? Who knows. Much better night tomorrow. Despite it being only three games, I have a couple of juicy plays I'm thinking of. Hopefully DAL can cash so it's not a complete loss of a night.

Well the night didn't end as I was hoping. I really thought, given angles and strategies, I would've hit at least one, if not both. If IND doesn't completely shit the bed by blowing their big lead at the beginning of the 4th, I would've come up at least one unit. First negative day so far. Today will be better.

[jjeagle]

they were good picks, but that's gambling. looking forward to those juicy plays for tomorrow.

[loungee]

ATS Record: 16-10-0 (+7.00 Units) (62%)
O/U Record: 11-8-0 (+9.00 Units) (58%)
Overall Record: 27-18-0 (+16.0 Units) (60%)

I was bound to have a rough night sooner or later. It was a nice week or so, now it's back to getting in the postive.

Plays for 1/19

LAL/MIA O191.5 (2U)
This line caught my eye for numerous reasons. First of all, both teams are coming into to this with a day off, so they will be well rested. MIA doesn't have Wade and LeBron is a game time decision, which is fine. Hell.. without a sick LeBron, I like my chances better, since MIA will know they have to run and gun to keep up with the LAL. Not only that, but it is an effective way to beat the LAL, since they are an aging team, aside from Bynum, which brings up another point. Who is going to guard Bynum? Juwan Howard? Joel Anthony? Haslem? Bosh? Absolutely not. Bynum should be able to have his way down in the post, in turn making MIA shoot outside jumpers and three pointers, considering Bynum's defense as well. MIA is a great jump shooting team, being second overall in eFG%, as well as being ranked 5th for jump shots in the eFG% category. That can't all be Wade and/or Lebron. And lastly, my system gives me about 6 points of value (6.175 with the O/U being 191.5 and my expectation being it will hit 197.675) so this is another reason why I like the over.

[mehow]

GL! i enjoy visiting your thread

[loungee]

Writeup will come when I get home:

LAL +5.5 (1U)
UT -2.5 (1U)

[loungee]

LAL +5.5 (1U) LOSS
I'm not gonna bother writing on this game, as it has already stared.

UT -2.5 (2U) LOSS
I've been racking my brain, trying to figure out if I should play this or not, and my gut says yes. DAL is playing their 7th game in 10 days, which is a lot for normal teams, but for one of the oldest teams in the league, there is bound to be wear and tear. Once, again, they fought tooth and nail in back to back games against LAL and LAC, respectively, but came up short both times. They threw everything at LAC, only to have Big Shot Billups to come back and throw the knockout punch. Yes, they're 4-2-0 ATS on the road, but UT is even better, posting a 6-2-0 ATS record at home. With DAL being a very aging team and playing so many games in so many nights, they'll most likely rely on their outside shooting, as they always have, where they shoot a NBA best .484 eFG%. Although this is a bit of a worrisome detail, I think UT with it's fresh legs will be able to run up and down the court against DAL. One last thing I took into consideration was UT being undersized, which would worry me against a lot of the top tier teams but doesn't here for two reasons: 1.) DAL is not a top tier team, and by top tier, I mean top 7 in the league (I can name quite a few teams better then DAL: CHI, OKC, SA, MIA, LAL, LAC, PHI, ORL, just to name a few); 2.) they have nobody down low that can present a matchup problem for Millsap, Jefferson, Favors or Kanter. Mahinmi is a nice story, but between him and Haywood, niether scares me. I know there's Dirk, but he is exhausted and won't be able to put in 100%. Take into account he's shooting 45% from the field the last 10 games, and I'll take my chances with UT.

[RyDogg]

Hope we get some back with Utah

[jjeagle]

Tough day. the refs were siding with the mavericks all game long. No worries. Get em Friday

[loungee]

Well not the bouncd back night i was hoping for but tomorrow will be better. With the big card I know we will. I sbouldve trusted my instincts and stayed away from the card all together. I havr one play so far and two leans:

ATL/PHI U184 (1U)
I don't have a ton of time for writeup so ill finish it tomorrow but here's the jist: they're both top 3 in scoring D, both rested and this gane is actuall gonna be a slowmoving game. Even without Horford, ATL haz been solid on D. PHI will tty to control tempo. More on this writeup later

Early leans:
DEN/WSH U205
PHO/BOS U???
MIL/NYK U191.5

[loungee]

MIL +5.5 (1U)
MIL/NYK U191.5 (1U)
PHI/BOS U185 (1U)
More to come later, as well as writeup to go with these picks. With the juicy card and subpar handicapping the last two days, I feel a bounce back today. I feel good about these so far, but this is gambling, so there's no guarantees. Tail at your own tisk. BOL

[RyDogg]

GL today

[jjeagle]

thanks for the picks. GL man

[loungee]

ATL/PHI, U184 (2U)
This line isn't given me much value with my system (only 2.625), but this play I see hitting big time. Both of these teams are coming off days off, both are off to hot starts this year, and both are top 6 in scoring D (I know, they're also both top 6 in scoring offense, but D doesn't go cold). Here's some stats for ya: both are top 7 in opp FG% (PHI #3, ATL #7), both are top 8 in eFG% (PHI #1, ATL #8), both are top 8 in opp two point % (PHI #6, ATL #8), and finally, both are top 5 in opp true shooting % (PHI #1, ATL #5). This is plenty for me to take this under, as I just don't see this being an uptempo, fast paced game.

MIL +5.5 (1U)
Ok, MIL isn't great. They're not even that good. But niether is NYK. They're grossly overrated. Although they've improved on D this year, thanks to Tyson Chandler, their offense has suffered immensely. With Skiles suspending Steven Jackson to send a message, I think MIL gets up and finally shows that D that they played well last year. I'm not saying they're going to win, but I'm saying I don't trust the NYK to grab a hold of this game and run away with it. And if you have been following me, you know I hate the logic "Team A has to win" or "There's no way Team A loses X games in a row." That's dumb. Theres no logic behind that. NYK are just untrustworthy.

MIL/NYK U191.5 (1U)
As stated above, niether of these offenses are hitting cylinders, or running away offensively. They've actually both struggled this year, with MIL being obvious and NYK a bit surprising. The value here, according to my system, is -4.225, which is partially why I went with the under. And given the aforementioned struggles, I don't see either scoring over 90.

PHI/BOS U185 (1U)
BOS is at home. BOS may be without Rondo. BOS is old. Three pretty solid facts (ok.. maybe not that middle one) that I took into consideration when making this pick. BOS can't score at all, and that's especially true at home, where they average 88.4 PPG, while PHO averages 91.6 on the road. My system gives us a value of only 1.175 but BOS struggles so much scoring. Mix that in with PHO only averaging 93.9 PPG, which is far away from the triple digits they average before, and I think this hits under pretty safely.

[loungee]

ATL/PHI, U184 (2U) WIN
This line isn't given me much value with my system (only 2.625), but this play I see hitting big time. Both of these teams are coming off days off, both are off to hot starts this year, and both are top 6 in scoring D (I know, they're also both top 6 in scoring offense, but D doesn't go cold). Here's some stats for ya: both are top 7 in opp FG% (PHI #3, ATL #7), both are top 8 in eFG% (PHI #1, ATL #8), both are top 8 in opp two point % (PHI #6, ATL #8), and finally, both are top 5 in opp true shooting % (PHI #1, ATL #5). This is plenty for me to take this under, as I just don't see this being an uptempo, fast paced game.

MIL +5.5 (1U) WIN
Ok, MIL isn't great. They're not even that good. But niether is NYK. They're grossly overrated. Although they've improved on D this year, thanks to Tyson Chandler, their offense has suffered immensely. With Skiles suspending Steven Jackson to send a message, I think MIL gets up and finally shows that D that they played well last year. I'm not saying they're going to win, but I'm saying I don't trust the NYK to grab a hold of this game and run away with it. And if you have been following me, you know I hate the logic "Team A has to win" or "There's no way Team A loses X games in a row." That's dumb. Theres no logic behind that. NYK are just untrustworthy.

MIL/NYK U191.5 (1U) WIN
As stated above, niether of these offenses are hitting cylinders, or running away offensively. They've actually both struggled this year, with MIL being obvious and NYK a bit surprising. The value here, according to my system, is -4.225, which is partially why I went with the under. And given the aforementioned struggles, I don't see either scoring over 90.

PHI/BOS U185 (1U) WIN
BOS is at home. BOS may be without Rondo. BOS is old. Three pretty solid facts (ok.. maybe not that middle one) that I took into consideration when making this pick. BOS can't score at all, and that's especially true at home, where they average 88.4 PPG, while PHO averages 91.6 on the road. My system gives us a value of only 1.175 but BOS struggles so much scoring. Mix that in with PHO only averaging 93.9 PPG, which is far away from the triple digits they average before, and I think this hits under pretty safely.

SAC/SA, O195.5 LOSS
At my book last night, this opened up at 197.5 and has since dropped two points. Perfect. SA has become a much more offensive powerhouse the last couple of years, with age catching up to them, in turn means they can't be as sharp on D. They especially score a ton at home, averaging 103.4. SAC? Yeah.. not good. Away, they give up 103.5, and overall this year, give up 100.9. SAC is a tremendously great shooting team, but I think SA can score 110+ themselves, which means SAC only needs 86 themselves. WIth as much garbage time potentially there and the fact these two teams will be pushing the ball nonstop, look for a DEN/WSH type of scoring game. Both of these teams are in the bottom 10 in opp. shooting %, opp. eFG%, opp. two point %, opp. true shooting %, as well as countless others. Look for a ugly, high scoring game.

[loungee]

Our PHI -5.5 and the under is looking good right now. I just hope I didn't just jinx us

[loungee]

Well hopefully we can get the clean sweep then. Just need GSW +7 to hit as well and i'll hit my 8 team, 5 point parlay for damn near $450:
MIL +9.5, CHI -.5, MEM 0, PHI -2, SAC +16, DEN -2.5, PHO +11, GSW +7

Going to try and ride this streak with a play for one of the late games. Be up in 5 minutes.

[loungee]

MIN +4.5 (1U) WIN
Well, Chris Paul and Caron Butler are not playing in this game. MIN are a little underrated. Their a few draft pieces and/or free agent signings away from being considered top of the West, but they've got a good thing going on with Rubio/Love. MIN is also 4-1 on the road ATS (9-5 overall) while LAC is 6-2 ATS at home (7-5 overall). 74% of the public is all over LAC, while I'm sure this was before Butler being ruled out. Their guards have filled in nicely and Butler isn't a superstar, but I think with the loss of him, MIN can keep this one close.

System plays:
IND/GSW,1Q U48 (1U) LOSS
IND/GSW, 1H U96.5 (1U) WIN

BOL.

[loungee]

As of 1/20:
ATS Record: 19-12-0 (+7.00 Units) (61%)
O/U Record: 15-11-0 (+19.00 Units) (58%)
Overall Record: 34-23-0 (+16.0 Units) (60%)

Early plays for 1/21:
DAL/NO, U174.5 (2U)
This almost seems to easy to be true so I am a little cautious, but digging deeper, this seems like it should go under. Although my system says go over (and with decent value), I am going to go with instinct and advanced statistics. For instance, these are both very good defensive teams. Actually, DAL is a damn good defensive team, ranking 3rd in opp. points per game, and ranking inside the top 8 in opp. shooting %, opp. eFG%, opp. 2 point %, opp true shooting %, among others. NO isn't all that bad either, ranking 9th in opp. points per game, as well as ranking 11th for opp. shooting %, 12th for opp. eFG%, 15th for opp 2 point % and, a bit pedestrian, 18th in opp. true shooting %. But what about offense, one might ask. Well, this is where the bread and butter will especially be made on this play. These teams aren't good offensively, and NO is actually really bad, ranking in the bottom third for shooting %, eFG%, 2 point % and true shooting %. DAL isn't as bad. They're actually average (ranking 17th, 16th, 13th, and 16th, respectively) But this is a great case of above average-great defenses facing off against average-terrible offenses. Not enough convincing material? How about these stats then:
DAL: Road, Over/Under
Overall: 5-11
Last 5, Away: 2-3
Away, Total: 3-5
Last 5 Games: 1-5

NO: Home, Over/Under
Overall: 5-10
Last 5, Home: 1-4
Home, Total: 3-5
Last 5 Games: 2-3

Take the under.


DEN/NYK, O206 (1U)
I struggled a bit with this one, since the NYK are so god awful on offense. Think I'm exagerrating? In the key categories (shooting %, eFG%, 2 point %, and true shooting %), they rank 28th, 26th, 24th and 21st, respectively. The bottom third in the league in all four categories. Points per game as a team? 18th. DEN, on the otherhand, is 1st or 2nd, in all four of those categories, while being 2nd in points per game as a team. Awful offense vs. Amazing offense. So why the hell would I take the over then? Well, it came down to the defensive categories for me. These two teams are dreadful as far as defense, DEN especially. But nobody gives them flack because they're winning by offense, which outshines their defense. But their defense is worst then NYK. Opp. shooting % (DEN:23rd, NYK:25th), opp. eFG% (DEN:23rd, NYK: 28th), opp. 2 point % (DEN: 26th, NYK: 14th), and opp. true shooting % (DEN: 20th, NYK: 25th). See what I mean? I guess I'm taking the over for the simple fact that these defenses are so bad, that even an anemic offense like NYK should be able to put up at least 90+ against DEN's sorry defense, while we already know DEN will be running all over the NYK defense. I hate putting some faith in the NYK to do anything, but if they can't score 90+ points against this defense, then just contract them already! (My homer CHI colors show thru on that statement?)

[sstrunks52005]

I been playing almost all the unders since the start of the season

its been very profitable.