[tonywayne]

New to the thread. I see that Wallco might not be available, so maybe someone else can answer this question:

For today's bets, I don't have Florida +1 1/2 on my sportsbook (Bovada) except through the Alternate Puckline. Does that matter? I guess the thing I'm trying to understand is what happens when a team is the underdog on the moneyline, but the favorite on the puckline.

Additionally, does it matter that the underdog puckline odds are -320? $100 wins $30.77 and normally I feel like I'd hear "never lay that much on so little profit".

Thanks ahead of time for anyone that can help me join this system...

[Boomshuck]

New to the thread. I see that Wallco might not be available, so maybe someone else can answer this question:

For today's bets, I don't have Florida +1 1/2 on my sportsbook (Bovada) except through the Alternate Puckline. Does that matter? I guess the thing I'm trying to understand is what happens when a team is the underdog on the moneyline, but the favorite on the puckline.

Additionally, does it matter that the underdog puckline odds are -320? $100 wins $30.77 and normally I feel like I'd hear "never lay that much on so little profit".

Thanks ahead of time for anyone that can help me join this system...

Florida is currently -105 according to scores and odds.com… so if Florida does stay a favourite then the play with be on the ML instead of the PL.

[tonywayne]

Thanks Boom. That's where I was getting confused - I couldn't tell whether we first look at the moneyline or the puckline to determine favorite/underdog.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 49-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -8.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0


v1 Plays
(A) 30-22
(B) 11-11
(C) 4-7
(D) 4-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



There are no system plays for (2/5/14)



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 49-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -8.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0


v1 Plays
(A) 30-22
(B) 11-11
(C) 4-7
(D) 4-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



There are no system plays for (2/5/14)



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NHL GOLD
2013-14 System to date: 160-6 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +27.51 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.91 units)

(2/4/14):
#164N.Y. Rangers (M/L)v1 (B) - Win
#165 Colorado (+1½)v1 (A) - Loss
#166Florida (+1½)v2 (A) - Win
#167Florida (+1½)v1 (A) - Win


v1 Fades
(A) 80-36
(B) 26-9
(C) 4-5
Losses: VAN (-24.04 u), LAK (-26.60 u), PIT (-29.63 u), STL (-25.52 u), TOR (-13.89 u)

v2 Plays
(A) 32-19
(B) 10-9
(C) 8-1
Losses: DET (-12.81 u)



There are no system plays for (2/5/14):
#165 Resumes v1 (B) on 2/6/14


** Please note, #165 is the last series of the first half. No team has enough games remaining before All Star break to qualify them as plays.



Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the team we are betting on, regardless of v1 or v2. If you play the closer line games too early, you may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and games when the line is (-110/-110) or (-105/-105), and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #2446 & #2447.

[cmendo2005]

So when do we get the lines for the Olympics?!

[Wallco99]

Wallco NHL GOLD
2013-14 System to date: 160-6 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +27.51 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.91 units)


v1 Fades
(A) 80-36
(B) 26-9
(C) 4-5
Losses: VAN (-24.04 u), LAK (-26.60 u), PIT (-29.63 u), STL (-25.52 u), TOR (-13.89 u)

v2 Plays
(A) 32-19
(B) 10-9
(C) 8-1
Losses: DET (-12.81 u)



Games for (2/6/14):
#165 Edmonton (+1½) @ N.Y. Rangers v1 (B) (7:05 pm EST)


** Please note, #165 is the last series of the first half. No team has enough games remaining before All Star break to qualify them as plays.



Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the team we are betting on, regardless of v1 or v2. If you play the closer line games too early, you may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and games when the line is (-110/-110) or (-105/-105), and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #2446 & #2447.

[miss_sbets]

Kickass!

[Wallco99]

Wallco NHL GOLD
2013-14 System to date: 161-6 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +28.51 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(2/6/14):
#165 Edmonton (+1½) v1 (B) - Win


v1 Fades
(A) 80-36
(B) 27-9
(C) 4-5
Losses: VAN (-24.04 u), LAK (-26.60 u), PIT (-29.63 u), STL (-25.52 u), TOR (-13.89 u)

v2 Plays
(A) 32-19
(B) 10-9
(C) 8-1
Losses: DET (-12.81 u)



There are no system plays for quite a while. System will resume after the Olympic break.



Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the team we are betting on, regardless of v1 or v2. If you play the closer line games too early, you may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and games when the line is (-110/-110) or (-105/-105), and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #2446 & #2447.

[Andy3568]

Good ending to a profitable first half. Here's to a profitable second half as well.

[calebepley93]

The filter I've been using ( chase .530 teams, fade .470 teams) is still doing well.

Breakdown:

36-0
a. 26-10
b. 5-5
c. 5-0

Again, I'm not sure if it's any more profitable in the long run. I just like it more. I don't think there were any losses last year, although this opinion is based on a quick glance at the final records of teams who lost series in the regular system last year, so it could be wrong.

[jsund]

do you post your plays

[Wallco99]

Yes I do.

[Kev the Brit]

do you post your plays

Presumably you're asking calebpley93 ? If so, why would he post his plays when all you and everyone else has to do is to check the Wallco's pick daily standing. Not difficult or time consuming.

[Kev the Brit]

The filter I've been using ( chase .530 teams, fade .470 teams) is still doing well.

Breakdown:

36-0
a. 26-10
b. 5-5
c. 5-0

Again, I'm not sure if it's any more profitable in the long run. I just like it more. I don't think there were any losses last year, although this opinion is based on a quick glance at the final records of teams who lost series in the regular system last year, so it could be wrong.

Comparing your results against Wallco, I note that you have played only 36 series versus Wallco's 167 series, which makes it quite an obstructive filter, with 78% rejection. However, a 100% win record on the surviving 22% makes it quite interesting.

Filters that use data that is not fixed in perpetuity, such as instantaneous league standing and W/L% are very difficult, if not bordering on impossible, to back test and therefore prove its worth (or non-worth). So, I would strongly suggest you keep very accurate records (printing out daily standings and data), for the next 10 years or until it fails catastrophically to the point that you recognise it is not profitable. Once you have that historical data, you can bring it to the table, so to speak.

[Wallco99]

Hi there.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

instantaneous league standing and W/L% are very difficult, if not bordering on impossible, to back test and therefore prove its worth (or non-worth). So, I would strongly suggest you keep very accurate records (printing out daily standings and data), for the next 10 years or until it fails catastrophically to the point that you recognise it is not profitable. Once you have that historical data, you can bring it to the table, so to speak.

You can go to Covers and get that instantaneously...win %, standings etc. You don't need to keep records, just go to a web site that has them already!

[Wallco99]

You can go to Covers and get that instantaneously...win %, standings etc. You don't need to keep records, just go to a web site that has them already!

They may have them for the current day, but not logs of every single day of the season for every season, which is what you would need to efficiently test that so called theory, in less than six months time.

[DirtyDan]

They may have them for the current day, but not logs of every single day of the season for every season, which is what you would need to efficiently test that so called theory, in less than six months time.

Follow this thread during the season and saw this. ESPN does keep the record at the time the game was played, back as far as you like. Example link from week one of 2008: http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/scoreboard?date=20080922

It would be time-consuming, but possible to back-test. If you are doing this, please note that the records listed are after that day's game results have been added. Good luck. Ready for NHL return!

[Wallco99]

Follow this thread during the season and saw this. ESPN does keep the record at the time the game was played, back as far as you like. Example link from week one of 2008: http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/scoreboard?date=20080922

It would be time-consuming, but possible to back-test. If you are doing this, please note that the records listed are after that day's game results have been added. Good luck. Ready for NHL return!

It is very tedious and extremely time consuming testing a system day to day rather than team by team. You would need the team game logs, like the ones listed on vegasinsider and covers, with the % next to each game on the TEAM page, not the daily game schedule page.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

They may have them for the current day, but not logs of every single day of the season for every season, which is what you would need to efficiently test that so called theory, in less than six months time.

I thought that Covers had it for certain dates (standings) but it looks like they don't...for mobile anyway. For the winning percentage I can get with a simple excel formula. As far as I'm concerned, standings has nothing to do with any type of system. A team could be in first place in one division but their winning percentage could place them in fourth of another. All about the wins, baby!!!

[calebepley93]

Like Wallco and Kev are saying, it would be extremely difficult to back test the filter I proposed - and without a significant amount of data (10 years of backtests, beta tests etc.) it can't be proven reliable. These guys put a hell of a lot more work into researching and updating the systems they run; they deserve all of the merit. For those who want to use the filter it's really easy to track on your own, but be advised that there's no guarantees it is any better. You are better off following the system that Wallco has extensively backtested and has proven profitable in real time.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NHL GOLD
2013-14 System to date: 161-6 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +28.51 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0


v1 Fades
(A) 80-36
(B) 27-9
(C) 4-5
Losses: VAN (-24.04 u), LAK (-26.60 u), PIT (-29.63 u), STL (-25.52 u), TOR (-13.89 u)

v2 Plays
(A) 32-19
(B) 10-9
(C) 8-1
Losses: DET (-12.81 u)



There are no system plays for (2/25/14)



Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the team we are betting on, regardless of v1 or v2. If you play the closer line games too early, you may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and games when the line is (-110/-110) or (-105/-105), and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #2446 & #2447.

[Andy3568]

Like Wallco and Kev are saying, it would be extremely difficult to back test the filter I proposed - and without a significant amount of data (10 years of backtests, beta tests etc.) it can't be proven reliable. These guys put a hell of a lot more work into researching and updating the systems they run; they deserve all of the merit. For those who want to use the filter it's really easy to track on your own, but be advised that there's no guarantees it is any better. You are better off following the system that Wallco has extensively backtested and has proven profitable in real time.

I don't know of any filters that are easy to back test.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NHL GOLD
2013-14 System to date: 161-6 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +28.51 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0


v1 Fades
(A) 80-36
(B) 27-9
(C) 4-5
Losses: VAN (-24.04 u), LAK (-26.60 u), PIT (-29.63 u), STL (-25.52 u), TOR (-13.89 u)

v2 Plays
(A) 32-19
(B) 10-9
(C) 8-1
Losses: DET (-12.81 u)



Games for (2/26/14):
#168 Detroit (+1½) @ Montreal v1 (A) (7:35 pm EST)
#169 St. Louis @ Vancouver (+1½) v2 (A) (10:35 pm EST)



Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the team we are betting on, regardless of v1 or v2. If you play the closer line games too early, you may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and games when the line is (-110/-110) or (-105/-105), and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #2446 & #2447.

[knugen]

Lovely to see this system back

[Grinder12000]

BTW Wallco - just to be Mr. Jeckle and Dr. Hyde - I do enjoy your NHL System!

-Rod

[Wallco99]

BTW Wallco - just to be Mr. Jeckle and Dr. Hyde - I do enjoy your NHL System!

-Rod

Thank you. My problem wasn't with you, just the people whose auto response is to ask a question without even bothering to see if it was already answered 68 times already. And unless you have been living in a bubble, yes, the country is going to shit! Lol. Not really sure why I am laughing, because it is actually sad.

[Grinder12000]

Yea - I'd much rather be North Korea for sure.

[Mrscofield25]

Yea - I'd much rather be North Korea for sure.

Ditto.

[Wallco99]

Yea - I'd much rather be North Korea for sure.

Didn't realize that was what I said. But I guess people hear what they want anyway. Give it a few more years the way things are going, and that wish may actually be a reality

[Grinder12000]

I see absolutely no reason to be pessimistic about America. That is really one of the most ludicrous statements I have heard. World environmental problems yes but America? What is wrong that can't be fixed? We are FINALLY getting more liberal. The Tea Party has become irrelevant. The GOP are eating their own. The economy is ticking along wonderfully, home buying and construction are picking up we have had 72 straight months of job creation and we still have a working electrical grid.

Only thing wrong with America is the freaking Polar Vortex which Europe had last year and it's our turn.

Now I must take a trip to Colorado to celebrate America's wonderfulness.

[Andy3568]

Didn't realize that was what I said. But I guess people hear what they want anyway. Give it a few more years the way things are going, and that wish may actually be a reality

Agreed! North Korea is the liberal utopia. If you ignore the government leadership and military complex, everyone has the same health care: crappy. Everyone has the same income: peasant. And everyone starves to death when there's a famine! But at least there's no income inequality.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NHL GOLD
2013-14 System to date: 163-6 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +30.51 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(2/26/14):
#168 Detroit (+1½) v1 (A) - Win
#169 Vancouver (+1½) v2 (A) - Win



v1 Fades
(A) 81-36
(B) 27-9
(C) 4-5
Losses: VAN (-24.04 u), LAK (-26.60 u), PIT (-29.63 u), STL (-25.52 u), TOR (-13.89 u)

v2 Plays
(A) 33-19
(B) 10-9
(C) 8-1
Losses: DET (-12.81 u)



Games for (2/27/14):
#170 San Jose (M/L) @ Philadelphia v1 (A) (7:05 pm EST)



Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the team we are betting on, regardless of v1 or v2. If you play the closer line games too early, you may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and games when the line is (-110/-110) or (-105/-105), and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #2446 & #2447.