Originally Posted by
Love The Action
NCAAF 2011 Week 6
Play #1
Cal/Oregon over (65) 1x (Locked)
Oregon's offense is clicking right now and I actually think California's passing attack can put up three td's and a fg against Oregon. At this point, Oregon needs to smash people and run up the score in order to continue to advance back up the ranking. That is something Chip Kelly does not shy away from. Oregon is a top 10 offense in both rushing, passing and scoring and also in advanced efficiency S&P+ stats. California, on the other hand, is actually a top 25 in advanced efficiency stats when it comes to the pass and passing downs. I think the key to this over is the pace. We all know Oregon keeps a fast pace in order to pile on the scores. Because of California's affinity for the pass, they will feed right into Oregon's fast paced mode and follow the leader so to speak. I expect a lot of big plays and offensive drives. Don't be surprised if you see the total drop a few points, because I have noticed this has happened on some games that ended going way over (see last week's Houston/Utep and Kansas/TT games). I lot of people blindly bet unders on game like this and look to fade the public. However, sometimes the public is right and I think that applies in this case where the majority of all bets are in favor of the over. I like this play at 65 or under because 65 is key total number for NCAAF. I have this game coming in at 58.5, so I'm rolling with with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Boise St./Fresno St. over (58) 1x (Locked)
Make no mistake Fresno St. can score, especially at home. Even though Boise has a great defense, they are playing at Fresno and that will only help Fresno's offense. In addition, Fresno has shown the ability to score at least three TD's against "big" programs as evidenced by their 28 points against Miss, 29 points against Nebraska and 21 points against Cal this year. Both Nebraska and Cal have solid S&P+ defensive efficiency scores in the top 30 of the country. On the other side of the ball, Fresno's defense is pretty weak and there's no doubt Boise will get at least 6 touchdowns on Friday if not 7. As long as we get 5 or 6 touchdowns from Boise and three TD's from Fresno with a few FG's for both teams sprinkled in, this one should sail over the posted total and I'm taking the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3
Memphis/Rice over (59) 1x (Locked)
Would have liked to get 58 here so we can cash on the key number of 59, but we'll risk the push because I think this one flies over the total. You have two of the worst defenses in the league against a veteran offense in the Rice team that has put up some decent numbers this season against top competition. Memphis does not have the cohesiveness of Rice, but can easily put up three or four touchdowns against this weak Rice defense. I expect a Rice win and possible cover, but feel the best play is on the over. I have this one at 65, so I'm way off or the books are. I guess we'll find out on Saturday, but I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.