Originally Posted by
Love The Action
NCAAF 2011 Week 3
Play #1
Ok St/Tulsa over (69) 1x (Locked) CANCELLED
Kinne and Co. has worked out some kinks without their top WR and playmaker in Johnson. Kinne can spread the ball around and get at least three TD's off of OKST. On defense, Tulsa just won't have the guns to stop OKST high powered attack. Whedon to Blackmon is damn near unstoppable this year and I think you will see that connection hit quite a bit tonight. Tulsa will score in the 20's and OKST in the 50's and this one should sail over. I have it at 72, but expect it to hit the 77 range. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Stanford/AZ over (55.5) 1x (Locked)
I love the quarterback matchup here and I also like Stanford to cover the spread. However, because I like Arizona's offense at home, I think the over is the safer play. I have this one at 62 after Arizona's defense was exploited last week and has not proven to be the "desert swarm" we are accustomed to. Luck will exploit Arizona's weakened secondary and Stanford will run all over that AZ front four, while Foles will get it done for AZ. I am rolling with the over for 1x.
Play #3
Kansas/GTech over (61) 1x (Locked) WINNER
We already cashed, so no writeup needed. GT covered the total on its own...sweet.
Play #4
Oklahoma (-3)(-115) 1x (Locked) WINNER
Florida St. is just not ready to roll with the big boys like Landry and Broyles. Simple as that. OU has something to prove in winning a big game on the road and I just don't this FSU can keep up with OU's offense. That will be a big mismatch similar to last season. The line has gone up to gone up to 3.5 as OU is clear play to me. I actually have this one at 7.5, but I think OU takes this one by a TD. FSU can keep it close with some explosive QB play, but OU will wear them down on both sides of the ball and take this one in the end. I am rolling with OU minus the points for 1x. Good luck.
Play #5
Houston (-6.5) 1x (Locked) LOSS
I think LTech is getting too much love with this line. Again, I always like to back experienced quarterbacks against weak offenses. In the first three weeks, I have been backing a ton of away favorites against my propensity for playing home dogs. Here, we have another away favorite, but I just think we're getting a ton of value. I have Houston at (-10) so I love this play. Keenum has a ton to prove and they will pour it one. Louisiana Tech will present a challenge at home, but Keenum will find enough success to pull ahead late. I like Houston minus the point for 1x.
Play #6
Nevada (-7)(-105) 1x (Locked) LOSS
Getting on this one a bit late, but I still like this number at -105. I expect Nevada to roll and win by at least two touchdowns. This should be Nevada's coming out party on their way to the top of the WAC and rebound after their loss to Oregon. Lantrip understands this offense and was able to move the ball against Oregon so I don't expect them to have trouble with SDST who first got rolled by Stanford and then lost a heartbreaker to UCLA. SDST will not be able to keep up with the Wolfpack and I'm rolling with Nevada for 1x. Good luck.
Play #7
Hawaii/UNLV over (60) 1x (Locked)
I watched some of Hawaii last week and was impressed with Moniz. I wish I would have been able to get this one on Thursday with my other plays when it was at 59 since that is such a crucial key number in NCAAF totals, but I have this one at 65 so I'm going to "gamble." UNLV's defense is still in the development stages playing freshmen and sophmores against Moniz who is as experienced as they come. UNLV got smoked by Wisconsin in its opener in a game that sailed over the posted total and I expect the same tonight. However, I expect UNLV to score its fair share as well. UNLV has moved the ball well so far this season and I expect that offense to exploit an undersized Hawaii defense. This one has high scoring written all over it and I'm a bit surprised the line is not higher. I'm rolling with the over for 1x.