[Love The Action]

LTA's NCAAF Plays

I will be posting all of my NCAAF plays in this thread for the the 2011-12 season and every year that follows. I have posted all of my NBA and WNBA plays in the NBA forum and MLB plays in the MLB Forum since the end of the NBA regular season and start of the MLB season. Once the NFL regular season starts, I will have a thread devoted to that investment market as well.

For those of you that know me, you know I like to provide in-depth writeups with all of my plays. Moving forward, you can expect me to post my plays earlier in the week so we can beat the closer and get as much value as possible. In all the sports markets I invest in, I play totals, moneylines and spreads, with a concentration on totals. I will be very selective with my early season plays and conservative with my unit stakes for those plays until my model and its advanced stats and team/player trends take shape around weeks three or four, at which time we will increase our aggressiveness. My units scale will be between 1x - 5x with some very rare plays above 5x.

Here is a link to some of my previous threads with all my documented plays and records.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-h...plays-p59.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...mpionship.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...-no-under.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...4-23-11-a.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-h...nals-reds.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...4-25-11-a.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...4-26-11-a.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...eaks-over.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...4-28-11-a.html

I encourage discourse whether in support of or against my plays, so please feel free to weigh in with your comments. We need to share knowledge with each other if we want to beat our common enemy -- the sportsbooks! Good luck to all!
LTA

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 9/3/11 (Week 1)

Play #1

Tulsa/Oklahoma over (65) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Army/Northern IL over (55) 0.50x (Locked)

Play #3

Rice/Texas over (55) 0.50x (Locked)

I had hoped to get my writeups for these plays done already, but got caught up at work. I will get the writeups posted by tomorrow night. I have to get back to Friday's MLB card, but will be surfing both forums a little bit before bed. Good luck gentlemen!

[Love The Action]

What do you guys think of tonight's TCU/Baylor game? The total opened at 55, then was bet up to 56, and then steadily dropped to 53 where it moved this morning. Action is pretty even on both the over and under. The side opened at Baylor +7 and is now all the way down to +3.5.

Robert Griffin versus a historically dominant defense that graduated 6 starters but still has Tank Carder. Last year, TCU was the only D to hold Griffin under 200 yards passing. I'm not so sure that happens this year. I liked the under at 56, but at a total of 53, I'm not so sure. My model has this one at 54, so I'm not playing it either way, but I'm really interested in this matchup to see how these two teams play tonight. Both could be interesting teams to watch for some possible value with their totals because of their public personas as either an offensive team (Baylor) or defensive team (TCU).

For me, TCU's biggest question is not the defense but the replacement of Dalton with the soph Pachall. We need to see how this soph plays in the first few games to get an idea about who TCW will be this year. Truthfully, I like the Bears at home on the side tonight, but can't play them at +3.5. I have this one with the Bears +3 tonight, but that's not enough for a play because I'm not sure what to expect out of TCU. However, I have a hunch that Baylor wins this one outright and I might sprinkle a little action wager on the ML. If I could have gotten this at its open at 7, I would have played Baylor.

Interested in hearing what you guys think about tonight's game. Good luck on your plays tonight!

[JR007]

there has been a considerable drop on the moneyline,pinny ....on the total,initial move to the over, at what point, do you lose value on betting the under, 3.5 drop.....sports-spy...still has 57% on the over despite the drop,do not think squares are betting this early,
Baylor and over ....so far

[figue]

[GemSportsPicks]

Love that Rice Over, Texas will put up points and Rice spread offense should be good to drop atleast 21 which should make this thing sour over... ANy feelings on this TCU game... Sucker move looks to be TCU, Sharp play Baylor, but I can't trust this team... I took the over...

I really feel it could be one of those games TCU wins on Moneyline and loses on spread.

[BigDan]

with you on that tulsa/okla over for sure, this one really jumped at me.

far as tonight who knows? like you i prob would have played Baylor with a td but where it sits now i really have no interest as who the hell can trust this team? like mentioned some questions for tcu that i rather see answered before i start messing with them, lean over but not by much. wouldnt shock me if Baylor won or got beat down which means i should prob just pass.

Here's to a great season brother...

[BiffTFinancial]

like that Tulsa/Oklahoma over, the only thing that had me off of it was considering OU minus points, but i hate big chalk. think it's time to book that one before it goes above 65. BOL with your plays and thread, LTA, great to see ya, pal.

[Love The Action]

ML Dog Parlay (Not for Records win or lose)

NCAAF Baylor (+160) and MLB Mariners (+135)

0.20x to win 1x

Good luck!

[kobstopa]

good luck with football, I'll make a few picks myself this season

[HoldEmHook!!]

Love that Rice Over, Texas will put up points and Rice spread offense should be good to drop atleast 21 which should make this thing sour over... ANy feelings on this TCU game... Sucker move looks to be TCU, Sharp play Baylor, but I can't trust this team... I took the over...

I really feel it could be one of those games TCU wins on Moneyline and loses on spread.

Hell of a call.......

[Love The Action]

Mariners are about to fuk up my day

[Love The Action]

Love that Rice Over, Texas will put up points and Rice spread offense should be good to drop atleast 21 which should make this thing sour over..

with you on that tulsa/okla over for sure, this one really jumped at me.
Here's to a great season brother...

like that Tulsa/Oklahoma over, the only thing that had me off of it was considering OU minus points, but i hate big chalk. think it's time to book that one before it goes above 65. BOL with your plays and thread, LTA, great to see ya, pal.

good luck with football, I'll make a few picks myself this season

Good luck this year fellas. I'm looking forward to checking out all of your threads tomorrow morning and seeing all your plays.

Let's all make some money together

[BigDan]

ill give you what im on right now bro.

tulsa/okla ov 65

ecu/usc ov 62

tex-24

stan -28

northwestern ml

big chalk and a ml dog everyone likes (yikes)

prob play a few more but already got down on these.

[KegKosmo]

im very interested in following your picks... im going to post my plays as well and so far two of your plays i have... i am wondering, how did you do last year in cfb

[collie]

Love the rice/Texas over as well, have had a good crack at that one good luck

[Love The Action]

im very interested in following your picks... im going to post my plays as well and so far two of your plays i have... i am wondering, how did you do last year in cfb

I have had a quite a few PM's asking that same question.

I just went through my NCAAF notes from last year and my final numbers were 89 - 76 = +19.75x. However, this record was not documented because I did not get into the whole forum thing until about March of 2011 and can't really count for anything. However, since the end of the NBA season and start of the MLB season, I have been posting my plays in the above linked threads and keeping my record here.

My goal for this year's NCAAF season is +25x or more. Good luck!

[BigDan]

ark st/illini ov 57 has grown on me....gl today bro.

[Love The Action]

ill give you what im on right now bro.

tulsa/okla ov 65

ecu/usc ov 62

tex-24

stan -28

northwestern ml

big chalk and a ml dog everyone likes (yikes)

prob play a few more but already got down on these.

Love that Tulsa/Oklahoma over

I would be a bit worried about Northwestern without Persa, but good luck

Looking forward to your plays all year

[BigDan]

yea being sick as i am, i actually like Nu more now with Persa out ..i was scared when they were a popular dog, now no worries on that front. lol.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 9/3/11 (Week 1)

Play #1

Tulsa/Oklahoma over (65) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Army/Northern IL over (55) 0.50x (Locked)

Play #3

Rice/Texas over (55) 0.50x (Locked)

This will be the only weekend without writeups. I just have not had time between capping all the NCAAF games, plus baseball, plus work, family, etc. I am still working on both the NCAAF and MLB cards for today and am starting to get prepared for the WNBA playoffs, so I'm going not going to get any writeups up for today. I might have a few more NCAAF plays before the day is over, but we'll still play it light to start the season. In MLB, I am playing the AZ/SF under and CWS ML, both as bigger 2x plays. Good luck to all today!

[Love The Action]

yea being sick as i am, i actually like Nu more now with Persa out ..i was scared when they were a popular dog, now no worries on that front. lol.

Get that money! New avatar is pretty funny

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 9/3/11 (Week 1)

Play #1

Tulsa/Oklahoma over (65) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Army/Northern IL over (55) 0.50x (Locked)

Play #3

Rice/Texas over (55) 0.50x (Locked)

Leaning:

Notre Dame -10
SF/ND under (47)
Boise St/Georgia under (51)
Louisiana Laf/OK St over (64)
Oregon/LSU under (54.5)
Troy/Clemson over (54.5)
I will probably add two or three of those. GL.

[JT OZ]

I like all of those, especially the totals but not sure if I can pull the trigger on ND.

[BigDan]

Get that money! New avatar is pretty funny

Not new, just reborn ....but yea one of my favs,

[Love The Action]

I like all of those, especially the totals but not sure if I can pull the trigger on ND.

My thoughts exactly...

[JT OZ]

I have USF 18.5 in a teaser before the line moved so I feel pretty comfortable with them keeping it under a 3-possession game.

[JT OZ]

I think ND will have a solid team this year, probably contend for a BCS berth but Crist in his 1st game back from 2nd major knee injury has me unlikely to lay the pts today.

[cackerman509]

Great thread! love the overs. I agree with JT, I cant pull the trigger on ND, following them for some time now, I dont know the stat, but they Don't cover games, and I have a feeling the points are too many. Just my opinion though. GL ALL!

[BigDan]

I think ND will have a solid team this year, probably contend for a BCS berth but Crist in his 1st game back from 2nd major knee injury has me unlikely to lay the pts today.

i think it all about defense....

[Love The Action]

I have USF 18.5 in a teaser before the line moved so I feel pretty comfortable with them keeping it under a 3-possession game.

Agreed. Who did you tease them with?

I see a 28-17 type final score, with the game being close throughout but with ND pulling away on a late TD. That is why I will probably lay off. My model has ND as -11.5 faves and the total at 45. So there's not a ton of variance between my lines and the current numbers and I can't find any other edge from capping the game that makes me think ND blows them out. It would not be shocking if USF covered the 10...

Good luck on the teaser...hope you cash

[Boomerizzle]

Picks look real solid LTA

[Love The Action]

I mistakenly stayed away from that Troy/Clemson over because of the line movement on the under. There has been some movement on the under in all three of our overs for today, but let's hope it's wrong just like in the Troy/Clemson game.

No play on LouLaf/OK St...I think LouLaf is going to run a more ball control offense than in the past. That is now what we're looking for. Even though Tulsa is missing their big play wideout due to felony theft charges, they still have an experienced Kinne and plenty of other returning starters that should see them get at least 3 TD's. I think Oklahoma easily scores seven TD's so I'm still big on this over despite the line move down to 63. Army/No IL should be scoring all over the field thanks to experienced offenses and inexperienced defenses, while I expect a similar result in the Rice/Texas game.

Remaining leans:

Boise St./Georgia under
Oregon/LSU under

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 9/3/11 (Week 1)

Play #1

Tulsa/Oklahoma over (65) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Army/Northern IL over (55) 0.50x (Locked)

Play #3

Rice/Texas over (55) 0.50x (Locked)

Play #4

Boise St/Georgia under (52) 0.50x (Locked)

Play #5

Oregon/LSU under (54) 0.50x (Locked)

Three overs, two unders...card is final. Good luck!

[mtcook21]

White Sox suck. Sorry wrong thread, but I'm pissed