Originally Posted by
Love The Action
NCAAF 2011 Week 5
Play #1
Michigan State (+3.5) 1x (Locked)
I have to roll with Sparty in this Big Ten matchup. Now that some of the advanced stats are starting to take shape, it's pretty clear Michigan State is turning out to be the better team. Offensively, Michigan State is the better team with S&P+ offensive rankings which better Ohio State considerably. On the other side of the ball, both teams are comparable with Ohio State a little better S&P+ defensive ratings overall, but Michigan state bettering Ohio State in rushing S&P and passing S&P. As far as conventional stats, Michigan State as the better scoring offensive and scoring defense, the better rushing offense and defense and the number one passing defense to go with a much higher ranked passing offense. Finally, these important Big Ten games often come down to quarterback and I will take the experience of Cousins over the inexperience of the Ohio State QB rotation, especially Miller who will be starting now. Everything points to to Michigan State with an outright win, but I will take the 3.5 since I can get it. I suspect this one won't be above 3 at close. I'm rolling with the Michigan State. Good luck.
Play #2
Pittsburgh (+3) 1x (Locked)
I originally leaned to south florida, but the more I looked at this matchup, the more I viewed these two teams as equals. I have this game as pick, so I will gladly take the points at home.
Play #3
Stanford (-20.5) 1x (Locked)
In the Stanford game, I expect the cardinals to roll. No need for a writeup, as the cardinal is superior in all three phases and should win this by at least 28 points. Good luck.
Play #4
Northern IL (-8.5) 1x (Locked)
No time for writeup, but I expect the dominant huskie offense to roll. I set the huskies as -13 faves, so I see quite a bit of value here in spite of their weak d. Good luck.
Play #5
Texas Tech/Kansas over (66) 1x (Locked)
I was torn on whether to take this one because I have it 69, howeve, once 66 became available I had to jump on it considering most books have 66.5 or 67. Good luck.
Play #6
Nebraska/Wisconsin under (57) 1x (Locked)
I wanted 58 but I don't think it ever gets there as I expect some steam on the under relatively soon. Yes, the badgers have been scoring points all year, however, their opponents have been defensively challenged. In this case, they will be facing one of the more efficient defenses in the country. In fact, both defenses are ranked in the top 21 teams in S&P+ defensive efficiency rankings. I have this game below the key number of 55 at 51, so I view 57 as a gift so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Play #7
Alabama (-4) 1x (Locked)
Play #8
Navy (-3)(-120) 1x (Locked)
Play #9
Hawaii/LT over (60) 1x (Locked)
Play #10
Baylor/Kstate over (64) 1x (Locked)