Originally Posted by
MMAbetMASTA
I will admit that I initially put much faith in alves' tdd and thought it was some of the best. After doing research yesterday, I found that not to be true.
HOWEVER - I will say its still pretty darn good and I'm willing to bet its going to be good enough against kappman in order to force a prolonged stand up fight in which I believe thiago will absolutely dominate martin. Outside of a flash KO, which obviously can happen, I see no way kappman winnnig a stand up battle where I think we will see thiago keep the fight at. I also think you guys forget story controlled the clinch - story only successfully grounded alves once to my recollection, alves stuffed about 8 other tds from horror story.
I'm going to post below something I have never really done before. I used to post lengthy breakdowns on here but haven't had the time to do so the past few months. However, I realized I could post my notes that I jot down.
I take notes while researching and analyzing any fight I'm looking at. As this is a tricky fight and one I am interested in betting somewhat moderate or large on, it is a bit lengthy... It's also choppy and not in complete sentences as they are quick notes I type up as I research, so it might be hard to read. Yet I think you can follow it and see what I'm doing / thinking.
Feel free to comment, criticize, agree and / or point out where you think I'm wrong - outside insight is always helpful.
Here it is:
Alves – tdd questions
-Against story, he stuffed all but 1 takedown (about 8 stuffed). Story won by controlling the clinch and closing the distance so that alves couldn’t get off on the feet. Can Kapman clinch and be this aggressive? No…haven't really seen this from kapman for an entire fight / main gameplan used, if anything it was diego who pulled a 'story' gameplan on kappman....So can't say kapman is this agressive in the clinch and based on his style I think not but who knows.
- Against howard – all 3 takedowns stuffed and more takedowns landed by alves. Howard tried to do the story tactic, but alves was prepared and kept distance when appropriate and changed levels to td and throw off howard.
-Taken down a lot with Fitch, but its Fitch!!! Also defended a lot of subs and was able to get back to his feet periodically. GREAT sweeps too against fitch…but spent too much time on bottom and lost a typical boring fitch grinder.
-THREE solid tds from KOS defended by alves in 1st and 2nd. Overall no successful tds - similar strategy will be golden against kapman I think..
-Hughes gets him down once in 1st, but alves pops right back up.
- Stuffed desouza over and over
- ALL of these guys have better wrestling than kapmann i think, and the only two that grounded him consistently was fitch and GSP – arguably the two best wrestling grinders in the division.
-Chin = good, only wobbled by lytle. Cardio = good to great, can't recall him gassing. Size / strenghth = HUGE / STRONG. Stand up = technical w/POWER, diverse striking arsenal, solid defense. TDD = pretty good, only GSP and FITCH get down with consistency, and can’t really do much with it. Trouble in the clinch, but hopefully learned from that with story, Sanchez fougth story’s fight against kappman. Overall, movement and precision striking will win this fight, throwing in a few random tds will help as well.
Kappmann – against story gets lit up, story’s striking is wild and has power, not as much power as alves’ nor the same technicality. Trips story down as story appears to start to gas in the 2nd – story's striking is even more sloppy and he clinched up with martin. Basically gets most tds in the 3rd when story is gassed – hoping alves will be well ahead on the scorecards by the 3rd and outpointing on the feet and sprawling on kappman I hope, and cardio is not a major concern.
-Stuffed and outstruck diego on the feet in the 1st, but gets clobbered by diego in the stand up during the 2nd and 3rd. No tds landed for kapman.
-Gets down condit consistently with trips but when on the feet kapman gets beat up for the most part...IS condit’s tdd anything special? Probably not considering he’s been grounded by most opponents who try.
So he got story down in the 2nd and 3rd, partly because of gassing and it probably also surprised story, and he also did this because story – a non striker – was beating him up on the feet. Got condit down a few times with trips, but like story, beats kapman up on the feet. After seeing story against brenneman getting td's at will on story, I wouldn't call story's defensive wrestling special (altough charlie has some of the best mma wrestling in the game).
Chin - not so good. Cardio - wilted against 3rd with shields and appears to slow in the 3rd - many dropped 3rd rounds on sherdog score cards in various fights - overall cardio I would say is good. Size = big but mostly length, not brute muscle like story or alves. TDs - tricky trips, alves must avoid clinch. Stand up - technical and good offense, no cold stopping power but can wobble people, HORRIBLE defense - gets lit up by many opponents with much less stand up skills than alves - can definitely see him blitz kapman on the feet possibly stoppage. Clinch - not damaging but can land the trips from there. Grappling = on top and on bottom pretty dangerous - alves good on top, but scared if kapman gets on top of avles, obviously must avoid being on back against kapman. TDD -= great, some of the most underrated tdd out there, but don't think alves will go for any outside of a last minute td to steal a round, catch martin by surprise?
Overall - IF THIAGO CAN MOVE, AVOID THE CLINCH, and NOT GET INTO A BRAWL / POSITION FOR MARTIN TO LAND A TRIP, then alves should dominate the stand up with distance, leg kicks, and counters. Also, I don’t think kapman will have story’s success in the clinch – story is a big strong brute who was able to muscle thaigo around and was willing to disengage with thiago to throw some bombs - kapman does not have story’s power nor that type of clinch strength I think. Bettttting on bkapman your basicallyy betting on him to replicate story's clinch war or gsp/fitches wrestle grinding..therefore that is a big 'IF' to bet on. Alves early tko aka marquart'd/daley'd or decision.