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ha On the subject of Gabe's cousins, Gabe surely u must have a couple of them in Glendale who will know what Rousey's strategy is for this fight?! Use ur Armenian powers to infiltrate the camp and try and find out if she intends to do the same as all her other fights and look for the sub straight away or whether she wants to take her time and make a fight out of it!?
She's gonna show Tate that she can make quick work of her! Jab, jab, jab, close distance, judo toss into armbar, tap, tap, tap.Originally Posted by Vaughany
uh oh. Judo toss armbar???
please not this argument again.
that's her move. who is going to argue it?
and for the record- what i said was in fun, not a fight prediction.
probably good to state that just so v will know lol
hahah yes I know Gabriel. I was creatign a joke using the Easton/Papaz reference.
ha I cant disagree with tht prediction.
I'm just thinking on the lines that this is a big deal for women's MMA...they are headlining, Ronda has had to initiate all the hype and promotion side of it...is there a chance she is so self-confident enough that she lets this fight go on a bit longer and "makes a fight of it"?! Maybe I'm over thinking it and she'll think its entertaining enough to go out there and tap Miesha out in less than a couple of minutes!
Can someone explain to me why Constantinos is 2.40 at 5dimes now? I really dont understand the line movement..is there something i should know?
+140? Im only seein +115
$100.00 $140.00 Pending 3/3/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Constantinos Philippou +140* vs Court McGee
Yiiiiiihaaaaa!! It lasted for maybe 2 minutes tho.
110774754-1 2/26/12 7:03pm $100.00 $86.96 Pending 3/3/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Constantinos Philippou -115* vs Court McGee
In all honesty, i also wilted at the openers...
ha oh right, nice grab
So my overall bet is 2.15...which is exactly what the price is now. so.... life isn't always greener...
Id forgotten tht Phillipou was on same season of TUF as McGee but got armbarred by Joseph Henle in the fights to get in to the house
I got screwed for fading him last time out =/
I like Philippou but i just want to point out that Rivera wasn't 100%/didn't have a good camp for his fight with him. My friend trains with Jorge.
i don't understand how everyone thinks Alves takedown defence is solid. It is his Achilles heel. It cost him dearly against GSP and then u would think he learned something but again it cost him against Story. I would be all over Kapmann in this one if i knew he was gonna fight smart but this is the George Gurgle of the UFC. He fights guys at their strengths instead of his strengths and their weaknesses. It looked like he finally learned his last fight but im not gonna throw my cash down and hope he can remember what it takes two fights in a row.
Last edited by Thor4140; 02-27-12 at 07:07 PM.
no one stops GSPs takedowns, so i dont think thats valid here...
I agree, it cost him against story... its a major concern....
but ur right about kampmann, he could have beat shields if he would have backed away from the clinch and remained at distance but he didnt...
Is anyone else big on McCall??
it is valid because for some reason he never got much better from it as we watched Fitch and Story do the same thing to him. I bet Alves over Story thinking all that wild shit Story threw would feed right into a knockout for Alves but sure enuf he gets taken down over and over again.But we are dealing with Kapmann here and he will end up slugging it out instead of using his head like Story. Kapmanns has a real nice ground game but betting him and hoping to see it is to dam risky. It is like betting Gurgel and then watching him try to box guys. I only fell for that once.
Last edited by Thor4140; 02-27-12 at 08:09 PM.
Despite our disagreement in the other thread, I'm with you 100% here. Alves' takedown defense is crap.
it is valid because for some reason he never got much better from it as we watched Fitch and Story do the same thing to him. I bet Alves over Story thinking all that wild shit Story threw would feed right into a knockout for Alves but sure enuf he gets taken down over and over again.
I just meant it wasn't valid because no one in WW division can stop GSP's takedowns...it is valid because for some reason he never got much better from it as we watched Fitch and Story do the same thing to him. I bet Alves over Story thinking all that wild shit Story threw would feed right into a knockout for Alves but sure enuf he gets taken down over and over again.
but i agree, this is why i wanted to stay away from this fight (but i love action too much)... kampmann is tough and good at everything...
do you think alves can get up from the takedowns if they occur?
Money's been coming in on Alves for the last two days.
Small play here.
could be worse. you could have jumped on the -170 opener on 5d.
Bipolar i don't know if Kapmann will even try to take him down. That is what is so hard about betting Kapmann U never know what u are gonna get that night. Alves has showed he can get back up. he also shows he can't make weight. He seems to have that under control with Dolce. he has improved his take down defense but he is a little mental himself. If things don't go his way he tends to give up. I see no value in betting this fight.
Last edited by Thor4140; 02-28-12 at 03:24 PM.
Going to agree with Thor here. The more I think about the inconsistencies of both fighters, the less attractive I am to this fight betting wise. And when I say, inconsistencies, I'm not talking about a gap in skillset, rather their approach to each fight. Alves fought smart against Kos by chopping him down with leg kicks and being weary of Kos's kakedowns with a strong display of TDD. In his fights against other agressive wrestlers Fitch and Story, however, Alves was smothered by his opponents wrestling and his killer muay thai was neutralized, posing very little threat in either fight, which seems very uncharacteristic of Alves.
As for Kampmann, he is a very well rounded and skilled fighter. He impressed me very much in his last win against Story, a fight I did not expect him to win. Kampmann came into the fight with a solid gameplan of stuffing takedowns and, when Story became frustrated and overly aggressive in the clinch, Kampmann imposed his own wrestling unexpectedly with trip takedowns. I also though he looked strong against Sanchez, stuffing all but one of Sanchez's takedowns and outstriking the inferior striker in Sanchez. However, Kampmann seems to run the habit of playing into his opponent's strengths. His choice to strike with the top notch striker in Daley cost him a title shot, when he could have easily taken Daley down and submitted him. Also, he made many lapses in jugement en route to his decision loss at the hands of Shields. Kampmann tried to out grapple the superior grappler instead of trying to keep the fight standing and let his hands go.
In conclusion, both fighters seem to thrive off implementing a smart gameplan, but they don't always do so, thus accounting for my mentioned unpredictability and inconsistency. I think Kampmann can submit or win a decision by taking Alves down with trip takedowns and imposing his strong top game. However, I don't even know if Kampmann will even choose to fight smart and take Alves down or choose to strike with him, where he has a lower chance of outstriking the muay thai specialist in Alves. Also, we don't know if we will see the the dangerous muay thai force that is Alves that knocked out Hughes and tore through Kos in this fight or the more timid, less dangerous Alves that seems to fold when a fighter implements his own strategy and breaks his will.
Dont be surprised if it's actually Alves looking for the odd takedown either. He did it against Howard who was far less a striking threat than Kampmann (although admittedly Howard possessed more power).
Off Topic
I was watching Kampmann vs McFedries. Kampmann was getting ripped on the feet.
Tht's the main reason for me playing Alves at Evens. Kampmann is awesome but his defence leaves a lot to be desired. Doesn't have a lot of head movement, tends to get caught up in sitting in the pocket and trading, and also tends to back up in a straight line as he did against Semtex and Marquardt. Story rocked him in first round
Off Topic
I was watching Kampmann vs McFedries. Kampmann was getting ripped on the feet.
Kampmann likes to stand and bang with fighters he really shouldn't. He's very technical but doesnt have a whole lot of power. He was correct in choosing to stand with Sanchez, but Alves, McFedries and Alves are top notch. Look what happened once he took McFedries to the ground. He can do that to alot of people but chooses not to.
Off Topic
I was watching Kampmann vs McFedries. Kampmann was getting ripped on the feet.
I will admit that I initially put much faith in alves' tdd and thought it was some of the best. After doing research yesterday, I found that not to be true.
HOWEVER - I will say its still pretty darn good and I'm willing to bet its going to be good enough against kappman in order to force a prolonged stand up fight in which I believe thiago will absolutely dominate martin. Outside of a flash KO, which obviously can happen, I see no way kappman winnnig a stand up battle where I think we will see thiago keep the fight at. I also think you guys forget story controlled the clinch - story only successfully grounded alves once to my recollection, alves stuffed about 8 other tds from horror story.
I'm going to post below something I have never really done before. I used to post lengthy breakdowns on here but haven't had the time to do so the past few months. However, I realized I could post my notes that I jot down.
I take notes while researching and analyzing any fight I'm looking at. As this is a tricky fight and one I am interested in betting somewhat moderate or large on, it is a bit lengthy... It's also choppy and not in complete sentences as they are quick notes I type up as I research, so it might be hard to read. Yet I think you can follow it and see what I'm doing / thinking.
Feel free to comment, criticize, agree and / or point out where you think I'm wrong - outside insight is always helpful.
Here it is:
Alves – tdd questions
-Against story, he stuffed all but 1 takedown (about 8 stuffed). Story won by controlling the clinch and closing the distance so that alves couldn’t get off on the feet. Can Kapman clinch and be this aggressive? No…haven't really seen this from kapman for an entire fight / main gameplan used, if anything it was diego who pulled a 'story' gameplan on kappman....So can't say kapman is this agressive in the clinch and based on his style I think not but who knows.
- Against howard – all 3 takedowns stuffed and more takedowns landed by alves. Howard tried to do the story tactic, but alves was prepared and kept distance when appropriate and changed levels to td and throw off howard.
-Taken down a lot with Fitch, but its Fitch!!! Also defended a lot of subs and was able to get back to his feet periodically. GREAT sweeps too against fitch…but spent too much time on bottom and lost a typical boring fitch grinder.
-THREE solid tds from KOS defended by alves in 1st and 2nd. Overall no successful tds - similar strategy will be golden against kapman I think..
-Hughes gets him down once in 1st, but alves pops right back up.
- Stuffed desouza over and over
- ALL of these guys have better wrestling than kapmann i think, and the only two that grounded him consistently was fitch and GSP – arguably the two best wrestling grinders in the division.
-Chin = good, only wobbled by lytle. Cardio = good to great, can't recall him gassing. Size / strenghth = HUGE / STRONG. Stand up = technical w/POWER, diverse striking arsenal, solid defense. TDD = pretty good, only GSP and FITCH get down with consistency, and can’t really do much with it. Trouble in the clinch, but hopefully learned from that with story, Sanchez fougth story’s fight against kappman. Overall, movement and precision striking will win this fight, throwing in a few random tds will help as well.
Kappmann – against story gets lit up, story’s striking is wild and has power, not as much power as alves’ nor the same technicality. Trips story down as story appears to start to gas in the 2nd – story's striking is even more sloppy and he clinched up with martin. Basically gets most tds in the 3rd when story is gassed – hoping alves will be well ahead on the scorecards by the 3rd and outpointing on the feet and sprawling on kappman I hope, and cardio is not a major concern.
-Stuffed and outstruck diego on the feet in the 1st, but gets clobbered by diego in the stand up during the 2nd and 3rd. No tds landed for kapman.
-Gets down condit consistently with trips but when on the feet kapman gets beat up for the most part...IS condit’s tdd anything special? Probably not considering he’s been grounded by most opponents who try.
So he got story down in the 2nd and 3rd, partly because of gassing and it probably also surprised story, and he also did this because story – a non striker – was beating him up on the feet. Got condit down a few times with trips, but like story, beats kapman up on the feet. After seeing story against brenneman getting td's at will on story, I wouldn't call story's defensive wrestling special (altough charlie has some of the best mma wrestling in the game).
Chin - not so good. Cardio - wilted against 3rd with shields and appears to slow in the 3rd - many dropped 3rd rounds on sherdog score cards in various fights - overall cardio I would say is good. Size = big but mostly length, not brute muscle like story or alves. TDs - tricky trips, alves must avoid clinch. Stand up - technical and good offense, no cold stopping power but can wobble people, HORRIBLE defense - gets lit up by many opponents with much less stand up skills than alves - can definitely see him blitz kapman on the feet possibly stoppage. Clinch - not damaging but can land the trips from there. Grappling = on top and on bottom pretty dangerous - alves good on top, but scared if kapman gets on top of avles, obviously must avoid being on back against kapman. TDD -= great, some of the most underrated tdd out there, but don't think alves will go for any outside of a last minute td to steal a round, catch martin by surprise?
Overall - IF THIAGO CAN MOVE, AVOID THE CLINCH, and NOT GET INTO A BRAWL / POSITION FOR MARTIN TO LAND A TRIP, then alves should dominate the stand up with distance, leg kicks, and counters. Also, I don’t think kapman will have story’s success in the clinch – story is a big strong brute who was able to muscle thaigo around and was willing to disengage with thiago to throw some bombs - kapman does not have story’s power nor that type of clinch strength I think. Bettttting on bkapman your basicallyy betting on him to replicate story's clinch war or gsp/fitches wrestle grinding..therefore that is a big 'IF' to bet on. Alves early tko aka marquart'd/daley'd or decision.
Not big, but I have my 50 on the play on the first page of this thread. Might put another 50 if line gets much better, but I think it won't go that way, or at least move that way heavily.
I think mighty wins to be honest, but I do think ian's wrestling and stand up is underrated, and the guy has insane cardio (as does mighty). Sprawl and brawl and throw in a few tds ala brad pickett is what I'm hoping for. And not to get superstitious, but ian has good vibes right now.
Value play overall.
too many ifs in this fight.... like i said earlier, must be a better spot for our money....
however, i must admit, im not overly familiar with the other fighters on the card...
i feel the line on alves will continue to rise and ill hedge my earlier alves bet...
Naaaa let your balls hang low and stick with that play
But there are many 'IFs' so I feel you... I bet against kapman his last two fights and was technically wrong on those plays (firm believer diego robbed him), so I'm hoping to change that unfortunate 'anti-kapman' streak on saturday. Was going to probably buy out as well or just stick to that small play, but now I might end up throwing down more as I like alves a lot after researching the fight last night. I think we can agree its a close one either way and probably not the best to go heavy on. But at anything under -150 I don't think that is too pricey right now if you like str8 money line plays. GL dude.
That is it in a nut shell. He bangs with the wrong people. He has nice hands but like u said i don't think he has much power either. If i had a gun to my head i would take Alves here just because i think Kapmann will get caught. Alves head seems to be on straight now aday's. I did think the fuker Alves would destroy Story tho. I never thought in a million years Story would be able to take Alves shots the way Story just bullies in carelessly. I do think Kapmann won those fights with Shields and Diego but they shouldn't be that close. The Sanchez one might have been the robbery of the year. As u said he almost had to get his head knocked off to finally realize he could submit McFedries. One last thing Dana kinda sucks these main event guys on these lessor shows (Diego last fight) (Lytle/Hardy)to stand and bang after Rumble went for take downs against Hardy.
liking SHAWN JORDAN -130,NICK PENNER -130, Te Huna -255.
Still waiting to take a shot on Hecht.
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